Aggressive offseason

[JM_]

6 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Not that McDonagh is a bad player but he is getting up there and they'd likely happily clear his cap (given how over they are). But as of right now they're likely losing Foote to Sea.

 

Not ideal if your Tampa.

 

If we moved them say an ED exempt Woo + for Cernak, allowing them to protect Foote and expose McDonagh (and adding his cap)... They might just bite.

 

Don't be so hasty. Depends on what the return is. As outlined above, Woo+ for Cernak I do in a heartbeat (as long as the '+' isn't overwhelming).

 

If we can upgrade on Lind, I make that move too (though less likely given he's not ED exempt like Woo).

I was thinking more about just cap clearance. Trading Woo up for Cernak would be great. I'd think the "+" is our 2nd. 

[Devron]

13 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

If we were still stuck with Loui for more than next year, maybe burn the 1st. Like Edmonton with Neal, e.g. But we just can't afford not to have a 1st round pick again this year.

Never, don’t lose anything for Loui. Too much pain from that one, no more. Buyout or one more year in minors

[Devron]

Also keep seeing buyout JV in people’s posts. You can probably ignore that one until we see what happens there. If it doesn’t look good for him, contract can be terminated 

[Comeback_Kings]

1 minute ago, Devron44 said:

Never, don’t lose anything for Loui. Too much pain from that one, no more. Buyout or one more year in minors

Agreed.  Use the space in 2022 for the best available RHD.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Maybe they should aggressively rebuild pro scouting?

 

Amateur scouting seems to be in good shape, but our pro scouting still seems to be pretty weak. Results have been very mixed, with some costly mistakes along the way. And we are now at the stage where we definitely need to be more successful in identifying undervalued current NHL players.
 

Being able to target current NHLers poised to breakout, either due to development trajectory, or underutilization on their current team, is an area where top notch pro scouting can pay real dividends, and offer a pathway to turn this team around quickly, and on the cheap.

 

I’d love for Benning to aggressively push Aquilini to expand the front office budget. We already have one of the smallest and leanest front offices and staffs in the league, so there’s lots of room to bring in some quality people. 
 

I’d love to see more tradition/conventional pro scouts added, and a shuffle of our existing pro scouting department, plus also expanding the analytics staff, to utilize that tool in targeting players with strong underlying profiles that can indicate the potential to succeed in larger roles, or being poised for a dramatic uptick in production, based on trajectory.

 

Great teams seem able to find players on bottoms of the lineup salaries who can exceed the value expected from their roles and placement in the lineup. Finding established pros, on cheap deals, who can offer far more value than their salaries would indicate, is a great way to quickly fill out a roster, without breaking the cap.

 

Easier said than done, of course, but other teams seem to manage to find those types of players, so why not us?

 

And if we can’t do this, under our current staffing, then why not look to bring in some new people, on the talent evaluation side, and expand and reshuffle the staff, to make the pro scouting side just as strong as our amateur scouting?

 

Hopefully ego isn’t holding Jim back, but it’s more about ownership cutting corners, that’s led to the current thin staffing. Benning is a strong evaluator of talent, and his built his career on his scouting ability. He may believe that he has all the help he needs (and he’ll get little argument from the owners, who like the cost savings, or from the invisible spectre serving as current Team President). Benning might believe that his pro scouting record is good enough, when it comes to acquisitions, and that he’s just been unfortunate, when finding the right roster fits, or having good players decline due to what are seem as uncontrollable factors (like injuries, although age curves also clearly play roles, in some cases).

 

Personally, I see pro scouting as an area with lots of room to improve, and one where Benning could really benefit from some help, if he was willing to accept it. He’d still get the credit for any pro scouting “wins,” but adding some more talented people to make his job easier, would not be a bad thing.

 

Right now, I see our pro scouting “wins” as a pretty short list: Motte, Miller, and Pearson (the trade, but not the recent extension). Am I missing any?
 

As far as the pro scouting losses, take your pick of any veteran signing at market or above market AAV, lengthy contract term, and players brought in as UFAs who were paid at premium while on the downside of their age curves (it’s a long list of the usual subjects).

 

(You could also add in some of the trades where picks were spent on role players or age gap fillers. The pro scouting was generally poor on those targets, and the process, in terms of “asset management,” was generally negative.)

 

What we need to start doing to signing players before they peak, and not after. That takes exceptional pro scouting, which we don’t seem to have, but possibly we could build, with the right staffing additions, and department construction/organization.

 

Basically, we need to be the kind of team that finds players like Antoine Roussel when they are young and cheap, and able to provide greater roster value than their contracts. 
 

We need to be able to identify players like a Colin Blackwell, signed as a UFA to a two-year deal at $725K AAV, and producing middle-six level scoring. Or guys like Conor Sheary, coming off of deals seen as overvalued, but then available at severe discounts on “show me” deals ($735K for middle-six level scoring). Alex Wennberg looks like a popular target for free agency this year. We need to have the pro scouting that targets him last year, after his buyout, signs him for $2.25M, and would give us a player who could be our 4th highest scoring forwards, while being only our 12 highest paid forward. Or guys like Evan Rodrigues (700K), Patrick Maroon (900K), Frederick Gadreau (700K), et cetera (could easily go on and on).

 

And, when we have a player already in the season, we need to know when to hold onto them. We went and spent big on Jay Beagle. And I like Beags, respect him, and appreciate his contributions, on and off the ice. But $3M x 4 for a 33-year old fourth line centre, who will be 36 when his deal expires? What about the guy we had here, and who went on to replace Beagle? I’m not saying I could see it at the time, but Nic Dowd has basically done the same job as Beagle, just at 1/4 the cost, and five years younger. We had Dowd here, and let him walk and sign with Washington, who let Beagle go and sign with us, because, while they liked Beags, they couldn’t justify spending $12 million on him, and they knew they could replace him, and save money in the process. We need to be the kind of team that can see we already have a Nic Dowd, instead of paying 4x as much for Jay Beagle to do the same job (and arguably less effectively, especially as he ages).

 

Anyway, this is getting lengthy, and it’s a rambling mess of a post already, so I’ll cut things off here. But the main point: how about we aggressively rebuild the pro scouting this offseason?

 

I mean, it couldn’t hurt, right?  

 

 

[Devron]

2 minutes ago, Comeback_Kings said:

Agreed.  Use the space in 2022 for the best available RHD.

A buyout only costs us 1million next year (2022) i believe in cap space. Makes the most sense 

Edited May 26, 2021 by Devron44
Clarify

[BPA]

1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Would CDC set its collective hair on fire if Jim traded down in the draft? 

 

What if we could convince NJ to take Loui's full cap hit to swap the 21 and 9 spots this draft? we still get a good prospect, and have the cap room for improving the top 9 or d. 

Only reason to do that is if JB is targeting a specific UFA and needs the cap space.

 

Personally, I wouldn't and just ride out LE contract.  Just 1 more year and be free of all the bad contracts.  This team was able to go deep in the bubble year.  I can't believe that it was solely based on Marky, Tanev, Stecher, and Toffoli. 

 

This season was a disaster with a compressed schedule, no training camp, no practices, and the whole team got Covid-19.  So it's a mulligan. 

 

I expect a rebound to make the wild card spot (or just missing it) next year.

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

 

just because Jim wants to be aggressive it doesn't mean another GM will bite on whatever Jim is selling. The only thing within his power is buyouts, so we know at least Jake is toasted, maybe Loui.

 

Outside of that, does "aggressive" mean trading prospects like Woo or Lind? picks? god I hope not. 

 

Does it mean exposing big salary like Myers or Schmidt to Seattle? maybe, but then we still need to go replace that.

 

I suspect all we may see is the buyouts and another press conference saying "we tried." Thats kind of the bar I have for this. 

 

Yep.  There is a couple  right paths  and their is a dozen wrong paths.   Right now  , the way i see it, we don't have quite enough in our pool and shouldn't be using this years picks just to help us make the playoffs next year.   All we have to do, is sit tight.   Have another year like the one we just had,  hopefully not as dramatic, hopefully one that gives the guys another round or two of playoff experience.   We aren't near to the "go all in stages".   At least two years away from that.    Support any move that makes us better in two years.   Sure if the right move comes up that doesn't affect the future much but adds a blue chip roster player upgrade do that.   Hard to see that occurring until cap frees up though.    We will find out.   And sure JB will do at least one thing nobody expected.   

Edited May 26, 2021 by IBatch

[Devron]

1 minute ago, BPA said:

I expect a rebound to make the wild card spot (or just missing it) next year.

The division should be one of the weaker ones anyways. Get in the playoffs anything can happen. Look at the bubble, that was so fun!

[Comeback_Kings]

1 minute ago, Devron44 said:

A buyout only costs us 1million next year i believe in cap space. Makes the most sense 

yeah, but Benning may spend it this offseason.  I think he should stop spending cap on expensive depth and save up for a player like Seth Jones or Parayko.

 

[IBatch]

4 minutes ago, BPA said:

Only reason to do that is if JB is targeting a specific UFA and needs the cap space.

 

Personally, I wouldn't and just ride out LE contract.  Just 1 more year and be free of all the bad contracts.  This team was able to go deep in the bubble year.  I can't believe that it was solely based on Marky, Tanev, Stecher, and Toffoli. 

 

This season was a disaster with a compressed schedule, no training camp, no practices, and the whole team got Covid-19.  So it's a mulligan. 

 

I expect a rebound to make the wild card spot (or just missing it) next year.

Wow.  Nice to see some logical critical thinking on this site.   Might as well just copy and paste this post as that's pretty much exactly how i see it going down too.   Either a wild card spot or a 12-15th pick.    And hate to say this, but it's exactly where we should be at this point in our cycle, and it's exactly what COL and CAR went through as well. 

Edited May 26, 2021 by IBatch

[drofssalg]

7 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

It's been seven years, how much of a 'long-game' are we talking here?  

Well it would not likely have to be much longer except for some of the bad signings, trades that Benning made. If we are optimistic, I think if you look at the Avalanche, they started their rebuild in 2009... so the Canucks are 5 years behind that. 

 

I don't see how the damage can be fixed quickly. I would rather see Benning not make knee jerk moves to fix the team only to fail and push the timeline out further. The Canucks are not far off assuming that Benning (or the next GM) doesn't make rash moves. I personally think 3 to 5 more seasons (with progress until then). Again, if the Canucks are lucky, they could be like the Avalanche. Other than maybe the Penguins, most teams don't turn it around in less than a decade and the sad reality many teams never actually become contenders before they have to rebuild again. The Canucks have some great pieces, now it will just take a smart GM to finish it off. 

[IBatch]

1 minute ago, Comeback_Kings said:

yeah, but Benning may spend it this offseason.  I think he should stop spending cap on expensive depth and save up for a player like Seth Jones or Parayko.

 

Believe that's the plan.   I also doubt AF has the stomach to wreck what we are doing just for some bums in seats next post season.   

[wallstreetamigo]

6 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Maybe they should aggressively rebuild pro scouting?

 

Amateur scouting seems to be in good shape, but our pro scouting still seems to be pretty weak. Results have been very mixed, with some costly mistakes along the way. And we are now at the stage where we definitely need to be more successful in identifying undervalued current NHL players.
 

Being able to target current NHLers poised to breakout, either due to development trajectory, or underutilization on their current team, is an area where top notch pro scouting can pay real dividends, and offer a pathway to turn this team around quickly, and on the cheap.

 

I’d love for Benning to aggressively push Aquilini to expand the front office budget. We already have one of the smallest and leanest front offices and staffs in the league, so there’s lots of room to bring in some quality people. 
 

I’d love to see more tradition/conventional pro scouts added, and a shuffle of our existing pro scouting department, plus also expanding the analytics staff, to utilize that tool in targeting players with strong underlying profiles that can indicate the potential to succeed in larger roles, or being poised for a dramatic uptick in production, based on trajectory.

 

Great teams seem able to find players on bottoms of the lineup salaries who can exceed the value expected from their roles and placement in the lineup. Finding established pros, on cheap deals, who can offer far more value than their salaries would indicate, is a great way to quickly fill out a roster, without breaking the cap.

 

Easier said than done, of course, but other teams seem to manage to find those types of players, so why not us?

 

And if we can’t do this, under our current staffing, then why not look to bring in some new people, on the talent evaluation side, and expand and reshuffle the staff, to make the pro scouting side just as strong as our amateur scouting?

 

Hopefully ego isn’t holding Jim back, but it’s more about ownership cutting corners, that’s led to the current thin staffing. Benning is a strong evaluator of talent, and his built his career on his scouting ability. He may believe that he has all the help he needs (and he’ll get little argument from the owners, who like the cost savings, or from the invisible spectre serving as current Team President). Benning might believe that his pro scouting record is good enough, when it comes to acquisitions, and that he’s just been unfortunate, when finding the right roster fits, or having good players decline due to what are seem as uncontrollable factors (like injuries, although age curves also clearly play roles, in some cases).

 

Personally, I see pro scouting as an area with lots of room to improve, and one where Benning could really benefit from some help, if he was willing to accept it. He’d still get the credit for any pro scouting “wins,” but adding some more talented people to make his job easier, would not be a bad thing.

 

Right now, I see our pro scouting “wins” as a pretty short list: Motte, Miller, and Pearson (the trade, but not the recent extension). Am I missing any?
 

As far as the pro scouting losses, take your pick of any veteran signing at market or above market AAV, lengthy contract term, and players brought in as UFAs who were paid at premium while on the downside of their age curves (it’s a long list of the usual subjects).

 

(You could also add in some of the trades where picks were spent on role players or age gap fillers. The pro scouting was generally poor on those targets, and the process, in terms of “asset management,” was generally negative.)

 

What we need to start doing to signing players before they peak, and not after. That takes exceptional pro scouting, which we don’t seem to have, but possibly we could build, with the right staffing additions, and department construction/organization.

 

Basically, we need to be the kind of team that finds players like Antoine Roussel when they are young and cheap, and able to provide greater roster value than their contracts. 
 

We need to be able to identify players like a Colin Blackwell, signed as a UFA to a two-year deal at $725K AAV, and producing middle-six level scoring. Or guys like Conor Sheary, coming off of deals seen as overvalued, but then available at severe discounts on “show me” deals ($735K for middle-six level scoring). Alex Wennberg looks like a popular target for free agency this year. We need to have the pro scouting that targets him last year, after his buyout, signs him for $2.25M, and would give us a player who could be our 4th highest scoring forwards, while being only our 12 highest paid forward. Or guys like Evan Rodrigues (700K), Patrick Maroon (900K), Frederick Gadreau (700K), et cetera (could easily go on and on).

 

And, when we have a player already in the season, we need to know when to hold onto them. We went and spent big on Jay Beagle. And I like Beags, respect him, and appreciate his contributions, on and off the ice. But $3M x 4 for a 33-year old fourth line centre, who will be 36 when his deal expires? What about the guy we had here, and who went on to replace Beagle? I’m not saying I could see it at the time, but Nic Dowd has basically done the same job as Beagle, just at 1/4 the cost, and five years younger. We had Dowd here, and let him walk and sign with Washington, who let Beagle go and sign with us, because, while they liked Beags, they couldn’t justify spending $12 million on him, and they knew they could replace him, and save money in the process. We need to be the kind of team that can see we already have a Nic Dowd, instead of paying 4x as much for Jay Beagle to do the same job (and arguably less effectively, especially as he ages).

 

Anyway, this is getting lengthy, and it’s a rambling mess of a post already, so I’ll cut things off here. But the main point: how about we aggressively rebuild the pro scouting this offseason?

 

I mean, it couldn’t hurt, right?  

 

 

This is not often talked about but is absolutely critical. And is a serious organizational weakness.

[Devron]

Just now, Comeback_Kings said:

yeah, but Benning may spend it this offseason.  I think he should stop spending cap on expensive depth and save up for a player like Seth Jones or Parayko.

 

Ideally I’d like to go one more year of not spending. Said it many times but fans are restless and don’t think that’s going to happen. The Loui buyout doesn’t save us a ton of cap this year but frees up some so that buyout itself isn’t going to allow for a big signing. Just a way to get him outta here, barely hurts us next year and frees up a bit this year 

[BPA]

1 minute ago, Devron44 said:

The division should be one of the weaker ones anyways. Get in the playoffs anything can happen. Look at the bubble, that was so fun!

Yep.

 

Take a look at the Pacific Division.  Who's the competition?

 

EDM 

CAL 

VAN

SEA

LA

SJ

ANA

AZ

 

At worst, we'd be 4th on that list.

 

 

 

[Devron]

1 minute ago, BPA said:

Yep.

 

Take a look at the Pacific Division.  Who's the competition?

 

EDM 

CAL 

VAN

SEA

LA

SJ

ANA

AZ

 

At worst, we'd be 4th on that list.

 

 

 

I think Arizona goes to the other division and Vegas stays in ours. Vegas, Edmonton, a surprise team and Canucks. Is the way I see it 

[24K PureCool]

Really the only aggressive thing JB should do is take advantage of a expansion pressured team to get a 3C on the cheap like he did with Schmidt. Bonus will be do the same to get another good D men. 

 

Personally wouldn't mind a side way move with Schmidt to get someone that fits this group better or trade down in the draft especially if we win the lottery to get rid of bad contract and/or add another blue chip prospect. 

[JM_]

9 minutes ago, BPA said:

Only reason to do that is if JB is targeting a specific UFA and needs the cap space.

 

Personally, I wouldn't and just ride out LE contract.  Just 1 more year and be free of all the bad contracts.  This team was able to go deep in the bubble year.  I can't believe that it was solely based on Marky, Tanev, Stecher, and Toffoli. 

 

This season was a disaster with a compressed schedule, no training camp, no practices, and the whole team got Covid-19.  So it's a mulligan. 

 

I expect a rebound to make the wild card spot (or just missing it) next year.

Toffoli had very little to do with the bubble, he was still playing hurt. He did help us get there tho. 

 

Yeah if it were me, I'd probably just wait out Loui. But if "aggressive" is the order of the day, then I can see us trying to drop down. 

[Comeback_Kings]

1 minute ago, Devron44 said:

Ideally I’d like to go one more year of not spending. Said it many times but fans are restless and don’t think that’s going to happen. The Loui buyout doesn’t save us a ton of cap this year but frees up some so that buyout itself isn’t going to allow for a big signing. Just a way to get him outta here, barely hurts us next year and frees up a bit this year 

No more plush taxi squad gig, we can go watch little things do his thing in Abby.