Canucks vs the League. Where do we fit?

[knucklehead91]

I want to start off by saying that I have done a bunch of research on all teams in the league and want to talk about Canucks and COVID, how hard it hit us and where we sit as a threat in the league.

Was this season a result of where the Canucks actually are as a team, or was our poor record attributed to COVID? And just how hard did COVID hit the Canucks organization?

We have the fans who believe the Canucks have met reality this season and there are no excuses or reasons as to why this team underachieved and we have the other fans who believe in this team and believe we are better than what the standings showed at the end of the year. This is to the fans who believe the Canucks are what they are and don't believe that COVID or the scheduling was a valid reason as to why we fell so far from grace after an inspiring playoff run and are too blind or ignorant to see what is to come next season.

 

Yes all 31 teams started the season off without a proper training camp, limited practice time, no pre-season games to get teams up to speed and every team endured their fair share of back to back games and condensed scheduling, but every team also had a lighter portion in their schedule in the season, be it in the first half or the last half of the season where teams would finally get some r&r. There were a few teams that did endure some extended time off due to COVID protocol or a few players being affected by the virus and games were cancelled and moved to a later date. Dallas and a lot of the Sunshine state teams like Florida and Tampa stared their seasons late. Vancouver was one of the first teams to kick the season off and they were ultimately the last team along with Calgary to end the season. I'm fed up with the lack of support for this team and what they went through this season and how fingers are being pointed in each and every direction as to why this team was well out of playoff contention. 

Our schedule was loaded up heavily at the start and was supposed to get much lighter the later the season went. Prior to COVID shutting the Canucks down, we had played 37 games in 70 days. The original scheduling after March 24th had Vancouver finishing off the last 19 games in 45 days. This is where we were supposed to catch our breath, get more practice time and just recover from the gruelling start to the season. Unfortunately for Vancouver, we made it through the hardest part of our season, only to get decimated by COVID and then finish the season with 19 games in 30 days instead of 19 games in 45 days. With COVID players were sick, unable to practice and stay in game shape. We were put on ice for nearly a month.  This was not a break the team wanted or needed, this was the worst thing that happened all season outside of missing Pettersson. JT Miller made it very clear to the league that the team was not at all ready to return to action, they gave them a measly couple days extra to get back into midseason form. Roussel also voiced his opinion during the season when it came to the scheduling and how Montreal had 3 breaks that were 4+ days each along with Toronto who had a 5 day break and were rested and ready for us the first time around.

 

I have done some serious digging and comparing around the entire league for each and every single team and this is ultimately gives me the assurance that this team is better than where they finished and are going to be a much better team next season, even if there are no roster changes. I believe in this group and I can say with confidence that this season is not a season to judge success or failure. This was not a fair season, every team gets hit with injuries which is an obstacle that you expect each season. But to have injuries, COVID AND brutal scheduling DUE TO COVID, its not a great eye test.

 

Below is going to be each and every single teams schedule broken down up to the day the Canucks were shut down.

Use this legend to understand what  the headings at the top mean

GPF15 = Games played in the first 15 days of the season opener

GPF30 = Games played in the first 30 days of the season opener

D70GP = Day 70 games played when Canucks played their last game prior to shut down

B2B15 = Back to back games played in the first 15 days of the season opener

B2B30 = Back to back games played in the first 30 days of the season opener

B2B70 = Back to back games played 70 days into the season when the Canucks were shut down

R70(2-3) = 2-3 days of scheduled rest in the first 70 days When Canucks were shut down

R70(4+) = 4+ days of scheduled rest or short term COVID lock down up to the 70 day mark where the Canucks were shut down

B2B = Season total back to back games

PP = self explanatory

PK = self explanatory

Teams will be kept in their divisions to keep the scheduling comparisons fair and accurate to the teams they are lumped with. 

 

 

TEAM	GPF15	B2B15	GPF30	B2B30	D70GP	B2B70	R70(2-3)	R70(4+)	B2B	PP	PK
COL	8	1	11	2	33	5	0	3	10	207	177
VGK	7	0	12	0	30	4	1	3	9	174	144
MIN	8	0	11	1	31	4	0	1	11	165	161
STL	7	1	15	2	35	6	5	4	11	155	171
ARZ	8	1	14	2	33	5	2	2	9	178	167
LAK	8	1	13	1	32	4	3	3	9	169	159
SJS	8	0	13	1	31	4	1	3	10	156	184
ANA	8	0	15	2	34	4	5	1	9	149	155
CAR	4	0	12	2	31	5	4	1	9	164	176
FLA	4	0	12	2	32	6	2	2	6	190	168
TBL	5	0	13	1	32	5	2	3	9	179	183
NSH	7	1	15	3	33	6	5	2	9	159	171
DAL	4	0	12	0	29	4	2	2	10	157	153
CHI	8	1	16	1	33	3	4	2	6	175	151
DET	8	1	16	2	33	4	5	1	9	149	155
CBJ	8	1	16	3	33	5	7	1	9	117	133
PIT	8	0	12	0	33	4	4	2	9	152	155
WSH	8	1	12	1	31	5	4	2	10	153	162
BOS	7	0	14	1	28	3	4	4	8	160	178
NYI	7	0	13	1	35	5	4	1	8	144	135
NYR	7	0	13	0	34	2	4	3	7	179	169
PHI	8	1	13	2	31	6	6	1	12	167	167
NJD	7	0	9	1	30	5	2	1	10	155	148
BUF	8	2	10	3	31	8	2	2	13	143	139
TOR	10	1	15	1	32	5	6	3	8	155	144
EDM	9	1	16	3	34	6	2	3	10	174	154
WPG	7	2	14	3	33	5	1	4	8	161	149
MTL	7	1	15	3	31	6	2	3	9	151	172
CGY	6	0	14	2	34	4	2	2	7	173	167
OTT	8	2	16	3	35	6	4	1	9	174	171
VAN	10	3	18	4	37	6	3	0	11	150	181

 

Vancouver was tied with Toronto with most games played in 15 days (10), which is a pretty heavy workload. 

We started our season, just as hard as we ended it, with a league leading 18 games in 30 days. (19games in our final 30 days)

The most back to back games in the first 15 days

The most back to back games in the first 30 days

Vancouver had the most games played by day 70 of the season, by anywhere from 2-9 games more than any other NHL team

Despite Minnesota having less 2+ day off breaks, Minnesota had less back to backs and far less games played by the time the Canucks were shut down. They had a much lighter schedule, which intensified later in the season. Unfortunately for Vancouver, it was extremely intense to start the season and then teetered off a tiny bit. Then COVID put is back at the bottom of the hill. Where we finished the season with a 19 games in 30 days.

We were originally scheduled to have 7 total back to back games. We ended up with 11 back to back games. 6 prior to COVID and then 5 more in the rapid end to the season.

A team without much practice time to gel, work on special teams and is playing almost every single night, is going to struggle.

We were the 3rd most penalized team, likely due to the exhaustion. Unable to keep up with the play and taking penalties because of it

We were 28th in PP opportunities with 150. Hard to draw a penalty if other teams are rested and skating laps around you.

There was no real rest for the Canucks and after a 100m sprint start, its easy to fall behind quick without proper preparation

We began to click and get on a roll a few weeks prior to COVID running rampant through the dressing room. We went 8-4-1 over a 13 game stretch leading up to the COVID outbreak. Had this not happened and with what was going to be a lighter schedule for the remainder of the season, I firmly believe this team would have been in the playoff picture.

 

Vancouver also started the season with 13 games in 21 days, in which we didnt have a practice. Thats nearly 25% of the season where the team has new faces that haven't had time to get used to the system or their partners/line mates. 

 

There are many positives to take from this season aside from another high first round pick and there are many good signs of things to come. This is the next section where I would like to give credit to the coaching staff and the team for what they had to go through this season and how games were much closer than you would think. 

Despite Vancouver sporting a 23-29-4 record and finishing in the bottom of the league, you'll be surprised to see how Vancouver compares to some of the other teams around the league...Tampa Bay might be very shocking.......

 I've gone and looked at Advanced statistics for each and every team just to see how "out of place" we are. I'm going to throw a couple very shocking stats at the very end that might make you say "Woah, Tampa and Edmonton were near the bottom of the league for high danger chances!?"

 

 

 

Legend for table below

xGF = 'Expected Goals For' given where shots came from, for and against, while this player was on the ice at even strength. It is based on where the shots are coming from, compared to the league-wide shooting percentage for that shot location.

xGA = 'Expected Goals Against' given where shots came from, for and against, while this player was on the ice at even strength. It is based on where the shots are coming from, compared to the league-wide shooting percentage for that shot location.

axDiff = Actual goal differential minus expected goal differential. A positive differential would indicate a team is converting or stopping an inordinate amount of good chances compared to league average. A negative differential would indicate a team is getting more good chances, but not converting or is allowing more than league norms. 

SCF = Scoring chances for. Scoring chances are all shot attempts from within a certain range from the net.

SCA = Scoring chances against.

HDF = High-danger scoring chances for. High-danger chances include shot attempts from the 'slot' area and rebounds, approx.

HDA = High-danger scoring chances against.

 

TEAM	xGF	xGA	axDiff	SCF	SCA	HDF	HDA
CAR	66.8	50.9	6	705	493	204	137
FLA	77.4	46.5	-12	709	444	204	140
TBL	48	65.6	35	432	654	136	177
NSH	42.2	71.2	43	420	653	97	169
DAL	59.7	44.2	-8	640	442	182	115
CHI	66.3	58.2	-33	612	556	167	160
CBJ	40.8	75.1	0	393	716	106	214
DET	56.9	48.6	-31	526	479	144	128
WSH	65.4	40.2	-1	669	407	189	111
PIT	46	66.3	45	440	604	122	194
BOS	53.8	51.3	13	505	556	140	163
NYI	52.3	59.8	30	477	624	138	157
NYR	62	44.6	-7	633	446	187	133
PHI	63.3	43.7	-45	635	411	193	121
NJD	49	66.2	-4	490	631	146	180
BUF	49.9	69.7	-30	464	634	149	205
TOR	81.4	49.2	4	774	499	206	129
EDM	49.4	74.8	22	399	766	121	223
WPG	60.6	58.5	7	647	543	172	171
MTL	65.2	52.2	-11	700	493	215	146
CGY	61.8	48.9	-5	594	482	176	136
OTT	40.9	77.8	13	444	749	127	212
COL	77.7	34.7	0	791	358	235	102
VGK	82.3	49.5	5	826	464	266	150
MIN	65.6	45.7	-1	610	447	188	127
STL	40.4	64.4	16	406	669	119	193
ARZ	44.3	74.4	13	453	734	139	210
SJS	52.1	68.4	-15	510	719	166	233
LAK	59	57.7	-23	619	560	176	188
ANA	47.6	74.4	5	480	744	145	231
VAN	66.5	64.4	-30	602	628	177	177

 

In this unusual and incredibly tough season for Vancouver they ranked 6th in xGF. Which is quite impressive considering we were without Pettersson for 30 games and much higher than teams like TBL, PIT, NYI, BOS, EDM and we played 1/3 of our Season in back to backs and pretty much the whole season without rest and practice time. We were getting lots of chances, next season we will be burying our opportunities.  Sure Kucherov was missing for Tampa, but we didn't let the absence of Pettersson get in the way of us generating chances and getting into scoring positions. We just needed better execution, which will come.

 

We finished 20th in xGA which at first glance doesnt look great, but given this teams hurdles and intense workload this season, I don't see this trend continuing next season. I believe with a fair season for all teams and just the usual injury obstacles being the only thing to affect a season, I can see this team overcoming injury adversity. We showed we can win games and hang in there without Pettersson for 30 games as well as other injuries up and down the lineup that left holes in key roles such as PK and dZone duties. We were managing okay through the first 37 games with the tough scheduling and missing Pettersson and the other injuries, but COVID and the logjam of games to end the season was too much for us to overcome. I truly believe the overwhelming fatigue is what led to teams getting the amount of opportunities they did.

 

Vancouver tied for 4th xDiff. Vancouver as much as they gave up opportunities, they had equal opportunities, we just could not convert our chances. Pettersson was leading the league in the first 10 games with 5+ posts and several broken sticks on the one-timer. This is an area that can be improved in both ways, which bodes well for the Canucks next season. With Pettersson and Podkolzin potentially in the line up next season, our offensive prowess should see an increase. Being more rested throughout the season alone, should help with our dzone. Add some practice time and getting the new faces familiarized with Baumer's systems should see Demko and Holtby's job getting easier. 

This IS the same coaching staff and systems that beat out Minnesota to EARN a playoff spot and then spanked St. Louis to then take Vegas to a game 7.

 

Vancouver ranked 15th in SCF we had 203 MORE SCF THAN EDMONTON, 170 more than Tampa and 162 more than Pittsburgh.

Vancouver is not too far off the top teams in the league for generating chances. 

 

Vancouver ranked 20th in SCA once again, I dont think this was a result of systems or personnel. I feel strongly that teams gained opportunities due to the fatigue throughout the Canucks roster. Injuries obviously had a hand in this as well, as it does with every team. But no other team had a schedule like ours, that is where I see that this team is better than what the standings showed. Next year WILL be a different story and a much better one.

 

Vancouver ranked 12th in HDF This is a trend that WILL continue next season and WILL get better as well. We had 41 more HDF than Tampa F***ing BAY, 55 more than Pittsburgh,  51 more than Edmonton, 32 more than Boston... 

IF we could trade either Pettersson being injured for no COVID, or Pettersson in the lineup for COVID, This team would be a playoff team no questions asked. But both No Pettersson AND covid... is too much to a team.

Dallas is one team that had fairly similar adversity, they were missing Seguin for 53 games and their season started late and had a 9 day break part way into the season. They went from Stanley cup finals last season, to early tee times this season. They had strong xGF, xGA, SCF, SCA, HDF, HDA and missed the playoffs. 

 

Vancouver tied for 19th in HDA with Tampa Bay. We gave up plenty of chances and hung our goalies out to dry at times, this trend will not continue next season 

 

There is no argument for Tampa who had significantly less high danger chances, expected goals for, scoring chances to be down near the bottom of the league in a lot of the offensive categories. People can say "oh well they were missing Kucherov", ya??? well we were missing Pettersson, so what??? We still provided far more chances without our star player. Same with Edmonton, they have the two top scoring players in the league and the best player on the planet, why did they have such few chances as well??? Edmonton doesnt have a team to support McDavid and Draisaitl, outside of those  2 players no one else is helping create offence. We ARE getting contributions from all four lines. We have A TEAM going into next year. 

 

Right now Tampa Bay is being held together by unreal goaltending and their ability to convert on their chances, which appears to be not many. They leave their goalie out to dry on a nightly basis. They are lucky to have incredible goaltending, just as we are lucky to have Demko to hold down the fort, especially when we are ready to truly compete and contend. It took Tampa a loooong time to win a cup since they drafted Stamkos in 2008, Hedman in 2009, Kucherov in 2011 and Vasilevskiy in 2012

 

Please Canucks fans, ignore the standings this season and look deeper at what we have going on. I understand the frustration of losing and how people feel like they need to blame someone, be it the coaches or management, but it has only been 3 years since the actual rebuild began. I understand why people feel the need for change, but through the first 2 years of the rebuild we made the playoffs with the management team that assembled that roster, drafted those key players and it was the coaching staff that got the most out of them and helped take us to a game 7 with Vegas.  This season should have an asterisk next to it for everyone's resume. Next season is fair to start calling for heads and by the end of Green's 2 year extension, if we have not found success heads shall fall. This team is going to compete next year and in the coming years we shall go from competitive to contenders. 

 

Sorry for the exceptionally long post, but I couldnt help the belief I have in this team from preventing me from shedding the positive light on the situation that was this season. Stay strong Canuck fans. 
 

edit: these stats are from hockey-reference.com for those who are interested and they are 5v5 stats 

Edited May 27, 2021 by knucklehead91

[ilduce39]

Honest question: are these numbers correct?  (Edit: not trying to call out the OP - I mean more like... how would less positive people be interpreting those numbers?)
 

Why are all the usual stats-suspects so down on the team right now?  
 

I really haven’t been poking around on the stats much this year... but I agree it’s largely a write-off between the beginning and end schedules, losing some key vets with no training camp (and early injury to Hamonic) plus obviously the worst Covid outbreak in the league. 
 

It would be nice to see that there were a lot of chances that we just weren’t converting on... (Petey hit a ton of iron to start the year.)  

 

In any case I don’t see us losing any key pieces and looks like we should be able to add Podkolzin and maybe a complementary piece or two.. combined with some familiarity and a proper camp I’m optimistic we should be back in the playoff hunt at the bare minimum next year. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by ilduce39

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

I'm fed up with the lack of support for this team and what they went through this season and how fingers are being pointed in each and every direction as to why this team was well out of playoff contention. 

 

Great analysis and I just wanted to quote you on this sentiment.  We're seeing now how fickle fans and media in this market can be.  You have a segment of our "fans" that were cheering against the Canucks throughout the season just so that their hatred of our GM and coach feels validated.  

 

[BPA]

Stop making sense.  Cuz it's clearly JB and Green's fault.  Also some of the assistant coaches.   Fire them all ... except Ian Clark.

 

Lol.

[Bad_BOI_pete]

logicbets.com has the nucks ranked

 

30th for xGF

24th for slot shots for

31st for xGA

30th for slot shots against

 

27th for penalties taken

22 for penalties drawn

 

and they pretty much ranked demko at 2nd best goalie in the league

[wallstreetamigo]

Where did you source your stats? 

[mll]

Those numbers look to be quite low.  Expected goals for of only 66.5 in 56 games or is it over a smaller sample size.  Pittsburgh with only 46.  Could you explain the format and source.

 

Sportlogiq's tracking technology shows very different numbers and leads to opposite conclusions.  They were near bottom of the league in expected goals for (and against) before their Covid-outbreak but were actually top-5 in finishing skills with one of the best differential between actual and expected.  They probably dropped after that but to that point finishing was not the issue it was generation (and prevention).

 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Where did you source your stats? 

lol.   That's the best you can do?   Weak game today.    Obviously this fan spent a lot of time researching this and made some very strong points as to why some fans keep bringing up both Covid and the schedule as part of the reason the season went the way it did.   Seen a few even just call it a mulligan, which as an occasional golfer i'd have to agree.   Several actually (mullies).    Like taking your practice swing and knocking the ball off the tee (no practice),  second stroke right in the pond (start of season), third stroke decent right back onto the fairway (past game 15), fourth stroke catching up to your foursome with an awesome fairway hit close to the green (easy chip and put in from there) - best hit of the hole so far (catching up to MTL and CAL before Covid).   

 

Then disaster.   Chip it into the sand bunker, goes off the tip of your club sideways lol (Covid).   Make an excellent recovery shot out of the sand onto the green ten feet from the pin (Holtby/TO)...then three putt (rest of the season!).    For sure a couple mulligans at least. 

 

Believe the point the OP is trying to make, and spent a significant amount of time doing so, is this seasons adversity was simply too much for them.   Interestingly enough, we did claw our way back, and our winning percentage against these teams actually went up compared to last season as well.    Coaching wasn't the issue.   Roster was to a degree but we aren't that bad either. 

 

Glad that at least the ownership and management kept and even keel.   Team deserves another shot before any drastic measures are made.  

[-DLC-]

4 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Where did you source your stats? 

Uh, the schedule and boxscores?  They're not hard to find if you take the time to look rather than just get caught up in "this team sucks".

 

I, too, was looking at this earlier and it's glaring if you really take the time to break it down on a team by team basis.  

 

The OP's done a great job of laying it out for you....it's up to you challenge it by digging for stuff yourself rather than having him/her provide even more detail.  Read it and if there's something that looks off, prove it?

 

After a post that's likely taken hours to put together, a 2 second challenge that basically asks for more isn't really cutting it.  Put more effort in if it's not believable to you and dig for opposing information.

 

 

[knucklehead91]

10 hours ago, ilduce39 said:

Honest question: are these numbers correct?  (Edit: not trying to call out the OP - I mean more like... how would less positive people be interpreting those numbers?)
 

Why are all the usual stats-suspects so down on the team right now?  
 

I really haven’t been poking around on the stats much this year... but I agree it’s largely a write-off between the beginning and end schedules, losing some key vets with no training camp (and early injury to Hamonic) plus obviously the worst Covid outbreak in the league. 
 

It would be nice to see that there were a lot of chances that we just weren’t converting on... (Petey hit a ton of iron to start the year.)  

 

In any case I don’t see us losing any key pieces and looks like we should be able to add Podkolzin and maybe a complementary piece or two.. combined with some familiarity and a proper camp I’m optimistic we should be back in the playoff hunt at the bare minimum next year. 

I used hockey-reference.com. If they are incorrect can someone show me how they are incorrect?

perhaps their calculators are based on all shots versus homeplate shots, shots blocked or missed versus shots on goal?

We did hit a lot of posts this year, Petey in particular.

 

I have no clue if hockey-reference is actually inaccurate or if its a different formula they use to get their stats. 
Can anyone provide proof or an article or something that confirms hockey-reference is wrong? Like how does anyone know their calculator is accurate?

 

[knucklehead91]

3 hours ago, mll said:

Those numbers look to be quite low.  Expected goals for of only 66.5 in 56 games or is it over a smaller sample size.  Pittsburgh with only 46.  Could you explain the format and source.

 

Sportlogiq's tracking technology shows very different numbers and leads to opposite conclusions.  They were near bottom of the league in expected goals for (and against) before their Covid-outbreak but were actually top-5 in finishing skills with one of the best differential between actual and expected.  They probably dropped after that but to that point finishing was not the issue it was generation (and prevention).

 

Hockey-reference.com

 

I explained the calculator from hockey-ref. Which perhaps their calculations are generated off all shots taken (missed or blocked included) 

versus another sites calculator that may only calculate based on shots on goal, home plate shots etc. or vice versa

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by knucklehead91

[knucklehead91]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

lol.   That's the best you can do?   Weak game today.    Obviously this fan spent a lot of time researching this and made some very strong points as to why some fans keep bringing up both Covid and the schedule as part of the reason the season went the way it did.   Seen a few even just call it a mulligan, which as an occasional golfer i'd have to agree.   Several actually (mullies).    Like taking your practice swing and knocking the ball off the tee (no practice),  second stroke right in the pond (start of season), third stroke decent right back onto the fairway (past game 15), fourth stroke catching up to your foursome with an awesome fairway hit close to the green (easy chip and put in from there) - best hit of the hole so far (catching up to MTL and CAL before Covid).   

 

Then disaster.   Chip it into the sand bunker, goes off the tip of your club sideways lol (Covid).   Make an excellent recovery shot out of the sand onto the green ten feet from the pin (Holtby/TO)...then three putt (rest of the season!).    For sure a couple mulligans at least. 

 

Believe the point the OP is trying to make, and spent a significant amount of time doing so, is this seasons adversity was simply too much for them.   Interestingly enough, we did claw our way back, and our winning percentage against these teams actually went up compared to last season as well.    Coaching wasn't the issue.   Roster was to a degree but we aren't that bad either. 

 

Glad that at least the ownership and management kept and even keel.   Team deserves another shot before any drastic measures are made.  

That is exactly what im getting at. Thank you for helping clarify that for everyone. 

[wallstreetamigo]

36 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

Uh, the schedule and boxscores?  They're not hard to find if you take the time to look rather than just get caught up in "this team sucks".

 

I, too, was looking at this earlier and it's glaring if you really take the time to break it down on a team by team basis.  

 

The OP's done a great job of laying it out for you....it's up to you challenge it by digging for stuff yourself rather than having him/her provide even more detail.  Read it and if there's something that looks off, prove it?

 

After a post that's likely taken hours to put together, a 2 second challenge that basically asks for more isn't really cutting it.  Put more effort in if it's not believable to you and dig for opposing information.

 

 

I was simply curious where the stats came from so I could go look at them since i view this forum on my phone and his formatting is all messed up and unreadable on my phone.

 

But sure, jump on me when I did not make any statement at all about the team sucking or any of the other nonsense you wrote.

 

Honestly, people need to calm the &^@# down.

[wallstreetamigo]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

lol.   That's the best you can do?   Weak game today.    Obviously this fan spent a lot of time researching this and made some very strong points as to why some fans keep bringing up both Covid and the schedule as part of the reason the season went the way it did.   Seen a few even just call it a mulligan, which as an occasional golfer i'd have to agree.   Several actually (mullies).    Like taking your practice swing and knocking the ball off the tee (no practice),  second stroke right in the pond (start of season), third stroke decent right back onto the fairway (past game 15), fourth stroke catching up to your foursome with an awesome fairway hit close to the green (easy chip and put in from there) - best hit of the hole so far (catching up to MTL and CAL before Covid).   

 

Then disaster.   Chip it into the sand bunker, goes off the tip of your club sideways lol (Covid).   Make an excellent recovery shot out of the sand onto the green ten feet from the pin (Holtby/TO)...then three putt (rest of the season!).    For sure a couple mulligans at least. 

 

Believe the point the OP is trying to make, and spent a significant amount of time doing so, is this seasons adversity was simply too much for them.   Interestingly enough, we did claw our way back, and our winning percentage against these teams actually went up compared to last season as well.    Coaching wasn't the issue.   Roster was to a degree but we aren't that bad either. 

 

Glad that at least the ownership and management kept and even keel.   Team deserves another shot before any drastic measures are made.  

Read my above post. Again, people need to calm down. Asking someone where they got their stats is not a statement of anything other than i was curious where they came from.

 

Different sites measure some of these convuluted advanced stats differently btw. So understanding the actual methodology of the stats being used is a pretty important consideration.

[mll]

59 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Hockey-reference.com

 

I explained the calculator from hockey-ref. Which perhaps their calculations are generated off all shots taken (missed or blocked included) 

versus another sites calculator that may only calculate based on shots on goal, home plate shots etc. or vice versa

 

 

They show Vancouver with xGF of 66.5 and xGA of 64.4 at 5v5.   They have actual goals for at 100 and actual goals against at 128 which don't quite match the NHLs who have 104 and 131.  Their axDiff is (100-66.5) - (128-64.4) = - 30

 

Natural Stat Trick has 97 as expected goals for and 118 as expected goals against - which is a fair bit closer to actual numbers. 

 

Do you have more detail to their expected goal metric.  They have a league average of 58 when no team scored less than 87 goals at 5v5 this season. Why the significant gap to actual?

 

[wallstreetamigo]

Not a fan of stuff like expected goals for and against tbh. Stats like that are just assumption based.

 

Hockey is not a game that lends itself well to everything being explainable by fancy stats. 

 

Advanced stats are very easily cherry pickable and very often not actually realistic based on watching the games. They are also calculated differently with different assumptions by various places that put them out.

 

In terms of scientific value, they are pretty much erratic and always need poper context.

 

I know people need a reason to believe the Canucks dont suck. But this season, like most of the past 7 years, the actual results dont lie.

Edited May 27, 2021 by wallstreetamigo

[Ballisticsports.]

8 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Not a fan of stuff like expected goals for and against tbh. Stats like that are just assumption based.

 

 

I agree about expected goals and stats

Expectations aren't always reality

I bet the Oilers expected to beat the Jets

Most expect the1st o/a draft pick to be the best

Most expected the Canucks to be better than they were

They will be down the road and All cdc  will be united and happy

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Read my above post. Again, people need to calm down. Asking someone where they got their stats is not a statement of anything other than i was curious where they came from.

 

Different sites measure some of these convuluted advanced stats differently btw. So understanding the actual methodology of the stats being used is a pretty important consideration.

You'd get way more slack if you haven't spammed the site the last couple of months with your negative attitude.  You got called out and maybe try owning it instead.   Invalidation is exactly that - people see intent when they see it. 

[IBatch]

21 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Not a fan of stuff like expected goals for and against tbh. Stats like that are just assumption based.

 

Hockey is not a game that lends itself well to everything being explainable by fancy stats. 

 

Advanced stats are very easily cherry pickable and very often not actually realistic based on watching the games. They are also calculated differently with different assumptions by various places that put them out.

 

In terms of scientific value, they are pretty much erratic and always need poper context.

 

I know people need a reason to believe the Canucks dont suck. But this season, like most of the past 7 years, the actual results dont lie.

And there it is.   Well done.   Again trying to invalidate and justify your position. 

[knucklehead91]

12 minutes ago, ba;;isticsports said:

I agree about expected goals and stats

Expectations aren't always reality

I bet the Oilers expected to beat the Jets

Most expect the1st o/a draft pick to be the best

Most expected the Canucks to be better than they were

They will be down the road and All cdc  will be united and happy

The way you should look at “expected” stats are that we ARE getting chances. I fully understand expected stats are a shoulda coulda woulda been number. The point of that stat is that it shows the team is in the right positions and getting the right chances. They are either being blocked, tipped away, good goal tending, shot wide or just simply not capitalizing. The point is the opportunities are there, which bode well for the future, we WILL start converting these chances as time goes on. 
 

And when you look at the expected stats of Edmonton versus Winnipeg.... you start to see Winnipeg was actually expected to win. People just looked at McDavid and Draisaitl and expected to win..... because of their individual point production..

Edited May 27, 2021 by knucklehead91