[DEBATE] What deal will Elias Pettersson sign for?

[204CanucksFan]

57 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Barzal is a better skater, better on face offs, weighs more and puts up just shy offence, on a FAR more defensively coached team (with arguably inferior line mates). Have those two players swap teams/coaches/line mates and I think you'd see largely opposite scoring.

 

 

Barzal is a better skater but last season EP was better on faceoffs than Barzal and EP puts up FAR better defensive numbers despite playing on a team that is FAR weaker defensively and plays a much more porous system. And as fas as weight goes, Barzal is two years older than EP, I'd be shocked if EP couldn't manage to add 11 lbs in 2 years, he's already gained that much since his NHL debut.

 

I really hope we get him signed to a bridge deal that is the same as Barzal but the reality is he is definitely worth more on the same term.

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:

Barzal is a better skater but last season EP was better on faceoffs than Barzal and EP puts up FAR better defensive numbers despite playing on a team that is FAR weaker defensively and plays a much more porous system. And as fas as weight goes, Barzal is two years older than EP, I'd be shocked if EP couldn't manage to add 11 lbs in 2 years, he's already gained that much since his NHL debut.

 

I really hope we get him signed to a bridge deal that is the same as Barzal but the reality is he is definitely worth more on the same term.

Just to be clear, I'm in no way suggesting Barzal is clearly head and shoulders above Petey. But I think it's pretty clear he should be making around the same $ and not drastically more than Barzal (as many are suggesting) at this point.

Edited August 30, 2021 by aGENT

[Elias Pettersson]

44 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

Hmm, I haven't encountered this issue. Are you adding the images via URL?

No not a URL.  I've always just attached a file.  It says I have 1.62 kB left of storage which means I can't even post one more pic.

 

It says I have used up 488MB of space which is the maximum.  I think I will take the advice to just delete my old pics and gifs from my attachments.

Edited August 30, 2021 by Elias Pettersson

[Elias Pettersson]

56 minutes ago, 4petesake said:

I won’t speak for VC but go to your attachments and start deleting gifs from older threads to create more space.

I just deleted all my old pics and gifs.  So I have all my space back.  Didn't realize there was even a space limit.  Oh well, nobody can see my old stuff anymore.  I guess I will have to do a clean up every few years.

[4petesake]

11 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I just deleted all my old pics and gifs.  So I have all my space back.  Didn't realize there was even a space limit.  Oh well, nobody can see my old stuff anymore.  I guess I will have to do a clean up every few years.

I only found that out after looking back at old seldom read threads and wondering why there were so many posts that were either blank or only had the comment but the attachment was missing. I couldn’t figure out why until I noticed that it said that I had used up 90% of my space and I finally connected the dots. I totally understand the need to limit your allotted space but it does kind of reduce the value of archiving different threads.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

On 8/28/2021 at 11:16 AM, IBatch said:

He was injured twice his rookie season.   Even Ken Campbell, a THN writer who is against fighting in the NHL, wrote about the too many vowels prick who ruined the first time i got to see him live in MTL (and had a good look - for sure it was  intentional, Campbell thought so too) also slew foot took him down hard.   We are lucky the way things shook out capwise, because a healthy EP might mean a deal that would be hard to live up to.   I truly believe he needs a mean prick on his wing or on D to watch over him and our other skilled guys.   Not so easy to find these days - both McEwen and Gadjs at least seem to not mind the role. 

Other problem though with having such a winger is that the Canucks tend to be given a short leash by officiating.

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Other problem though with having such a winger is that the Canucks tend to be given a short leash by officiating.

Won't engage on that topic.   Our "short leash" ... i'm sure a lot of fans feel the same.   How many penalties have we drawn since EP joined the league again?  Aren't we at the top of that category? 

 

If this is about the Boston series ... well we got 2 power plays for everyone one of theirs.   I'd much rather be the "bully" then the bullied.   Believe it or not, there was several decades where we were the bully before the Sedin era or at least held our own.   I'd much prefer to get back into that side of the spectrum.    

Edited August 30, 2021 by IBatch

[NewbieCanuckFan]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Won't engage on that topic.

That's the typical reaction I got whenever I tried talking to anyone this past weekend at night.

Edited August 30, 2021 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Ghostsof1915]

Come on boys sign!!!!!!

[Shirotashi]

On 8/27/2021 at 12:44 AM, Nuxfanabroad said:

This poll was about as ORGANIZED as some military pull-out, eh?!

 

8 x 8.8 mill(ish)!

Hes not waiting 8 years for us to challenge for the cup. I say its 5 years @7.5 per year.

Hughes is 5yrs @8.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Shirotashi

[Nuxfanabroad]

8 minutes ago, Shirotashi said:

Hes not waiting 8 years for us to challenge for the cup. I say its 5 years @7.5 per year.

Hughes is 5yrs @8.

Twist my arm, & I'd certainly accept them numbers today!

[The_Rocket]

COPY AND PASTED FROM A DIFFERENT THREAD:

 

here are my Petey estimates:

 

8 years @ 9.6 million

7 years @ 9.3 million 

6 years @ 8.9 million

5 years @ 8.4 million

4 years @ 7.6 million

3 years @ 7.25 million

 

i think the most likely scenario is either 3 or 6 years, based on Petey’s confidence in the team, the uncertainty of how the cap will increase over time, and how much petey thinks he will improve 

explanation:

 

I made a contract estimator on excel and ran different scenarios for what Pettersson’s contract might look like on different terms. Here are my assumptions:

A 3 year deal is 7.25 million AAV based on Barzal comparable + a little bit more due to Pettersson’s status and reputation. 

UFA years (years 5-8 of any contract he signs) are worth $11.5 million per year in future dollars. That’s around ~$10.5 million in today’s dollars. I used players like draisaitl, point, Tavares, toews, courtourier, kopitar, and eichel to derive this number. His UFA years could be more expensive depending on inflation and how close to those players he and the Canucks believes he will be when he is 26 years old. 

To estimate salary cap increase, I used 2 calculations. One assumes a 3% increase per year, the other assumes a flat $1 million increase per year. I estimate out 4 years (to
Pettersson’s first UFA year) to adjust his future dollars into real terms. Then I took the average of the two calculations for my model. 

I assumed that Petey’s final RFA year (the 4th season from now) is worth his Qualifying Offer on a 3 year bridge at 7.25 million. The QO would be 120% of the AAV of the bridge deal (assuming backloaded), or $8.4 million. I weighted this value into all calculations of 4 years or more. 

Finally, right before posting this, I Ran kaprizov’s rumoured $9x5 contract through the model using all the same assumptions. The only thing I changed was the number of RFA years (kaprizov only has 3 left, compared to Patterson’s 4). If we assume kaprizov is a comparable, then I found his new contract perfectly fits my model when adjusting for RFA years remaining. 

So I plugged in all the different term options and here are my results. 

Please note that my assumptions are based on a known value of a 3 year deal, so I’m not able to use the model to calculate 1 or 2 year deals.