Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to make the playoffs

[ABNuck]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Trade Miller to Philly for one of Provorov/Sanheim/Farabee/Konecny and their ~5th. Draft Nemec/Jiricek.

No. Keep Miller, trade Myers. Draft RHD = free asset (in trade return for Myers). If you dump Miller you need to replace him. WAY easier to replace a top 4D than a 1st line player, especially your leading scorer. None of the 4 mentioned from Philly will replace Miller, so unless we take a Dman from Philly and draft a 1st line forward, we will be stepping back, and there are no guarantees going forward that we will be able to easily replace Miller's points by going F/A or future draft prospect. Therefore the logical path is to replace the player we can through the draft (Myers...especially if we pick Lameroux), hang on to our most valuable asset and build from there. Addition by addition, not addition by subtraction.

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, ABNuck said:

 

Need RHD for Hughes:

Jiricek will be gone...aiming for Luneau (6'2" 190#) or Lameroux (6'7" 200#)

Yeah those are the 2 I'd be aiming for as well, but as usual it's still always BPA.  Someone ranked in the top 10 might very well be available at #15 OA.

[ABNuck]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah those are the 2 I'd be aiming for as well, but as usual it's still always BPA.  Someone ranked in the top 10 might very well be available at #15 OA.

So true this year! This is by far the most messed up draft from positions 5 onward, what you stated is so true, and could clearly benefit the teams picking 10-20 more-so than in other years. We could pick at 15 and get a better player in the end than was picked at 6. Travel restrictions for scouts over the past 12-18 months has absolutely messed up the Central Scouting rankings. Add to that the incomplete Worlds and the scouts just didn't get a chance to see some high prospects in head to head competition against their draft peer group...I would hate to be a head scout right now going off of incomplete data, but then again, every team is handcuffed by the same set of circumstances...it will truly be a bit of a crapshoot after the top 5. Best to stick to a North American scouted skater since our scouts were better equipped to witness their work when going head-to-head against other highly skilled talent...again, just my opinion. When it comes to big RHD's it becomes pretty clear, Jiricek (sure bet) and Nemec (fairly sure bet) will be gone, which leaves us Luneau and Lameroux as the top North American RHD prospects.

[drofssalg]

Tried the simulator... 22 spins before the Canucks moved up. Odds are really bad at that spot. First spin - Vegas won it - that would be the most Canuck thing to have happen - even at 15 have to move down a spot. 

 

I posted in November and it was a sad state then. The past few months have been a lot of fun. Truly a fun season to watch (after Dec 5). Was really hoping they could come back against the odds and make the playoffs. 

 

I am excited to see what changes are made. Very much looking forward to next season. 

[ABNuck]

2 hours ago, drofssalg said:

Tried the simulator... 22 spins before the Canucks moved up. Odds are really bad at that spot. First spin - Vegas won it - that would be the most Canuck thing to have happen - even at 15 have to move down a spot. 

 

I posted in November and it was a sad state then. The past few months have been a lot of fun. Truly a fun season to watch (after Dec 5). Was really hoping they could come back against the odds and make the playoffs. 

 

I am excited to see what changes are made. Very much looking forward to next season. 

Right from minute one of this franchise's existence, the draft lottery gods have not shone favorably on us. Even our most famous (or infamous) #2 / #3 pick arrangement was highly engineered, not something that fell to us. One day we'll get #1 OA, let's just hope it's not in a year when a Nail Yakupov type is touted as the #1...that too would be very Canuckian.

[HKSR]

2 hours ago, ABNuck said:

Right from minute one of this franchise's existence, the draft lottery gods have not shone favorably on us. Even our most famous (or infamous) #2 / #3 pick arrangement was highly engineered, not something that fell to us. One day we'll get #1 OA, let's just hope it's not in a year when a Nail Yakupov type is touted as the #1...that too would be very Canuckian.

#1OA in 2023 would be fantastic, but not gonna happen cuz we're making the playoffs next year.

[Provost]

10 hours ago, IBatch said:

Yes they did.   Would take a Christmas miracle now.    

Merry Christmas!!!
 

PS.  The team (aka The Grinch), has pushed back on this rumour and said it isn't true.

[Chris12345]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

#1OA in 2023 would be fantastic, but not gonna happen cuz we're making the playoffs next year.

We are making the playoffs next year every year!

[24K PureCool]

4 hours ago, HKSR said:

#1OA in 2023 would be fantastic, but not gonna happen cuz we're making the playoffs next year.

Trade Miller to a team like Philly for their 2023 1st round unprotected.

 

Make the bet that a desperate team gonna stink up the joint and hope they get the lottery win. 

[ABNuck]

13 hours ago, 24K PureCool said:

Trade Miller to a team like Philly for their 2023 1st round unprotected.

 

Make the bet that a desperate team gonna stink up the joint and hope they get the lottery win. 

And that high 1st round pick will hit the 90 point mark right outta the gate like Miller will next year? No? Didn't think so. That would be a HUGE step backwards for a team who's compete window is over the next 2 - 4 years. We simply CANNOT constantly be in rebuild mode, sooner or later you've got to go all in.

[qwijibo]

13 hours ago, 24K PureCool said:

Trade Miller to a team like Philly for their 2023 1st round unprotected.

 

Make the bet that a desperate team gonna stink up the joint and hope they get the lottery win. 

GM’s on struggling teams don’t trade 1sts without some kind of draft protection. Especially when there’s a potential franchise player available in that draft 

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, qwijibo said:

GM’s on struggling teams don’t trade 1sts without some kind of draft protection. Especially when there’s a potential franchise player available in that draft 

I'd sure do it after the lotto once their pick is locked in around 5thOA. 

 

One of Provorov/Sanheim/Farabee/Konecny and their first. Then draft whichever of Nemec/Jiricek is available.

 

 

 

[24K PureCool]

2 hours ago, qwijibo said:

GM’s on struggling teams don’t trade 1sts without some kind of draft protection. Especially when there’s a potential franchise player available in that draft 

Of course not, you need to find a team that was knocked out of the playoffs or barely missed or a desperate GM trying to safe his job. Not your Arizona's or Montreals that are known to be bad. 

[ABNuck]

6 hours ago, aGENT said:

I'd sure do it after the lotto once their pick is locked in around 5thOA. 

 

One of Provorov/Sanheim/Farabee/Konecny and their first. Then draft whichever of Nemec/Jiricek is available.

 

 

 

This again...so which one of the above named players will net us 90+ points next year to replace Miller's lost production? I'm not 100% convinced that all 4 of them combined would give us 90 points. You simply cannot replace Miller's offense.

 

Here's the list of players right around JT in the Stats:

Panarin (11.65m), Marner (10.9m), Rantanen (9.25m), P.Kane (10.5m), OVI8 (9.5m) and Stamkos (8.5m).

 

JT makes 5.25m and is locked in for the next year...there quite simply isn't another NHL'er right now that is more efficient $/pt and plays / scores at a first line rate than JT Miller, we have him, everybody else wants him...they can go suck it! Especially a couple of middle 6 forwards or middle pairing d-men. Put it this way, if we had Miko Rantanen on our team, would you trade him? No, you would build around him. We actually have the same point production from a player for 4m less, but you want to trade him? C'mon man.

[aGENT]

54 minutes ago, ABNuck said:

This again...so which one of the above named players will net us 90+ points next year to replace Miller's lost production? I'm not 100% convinced that all 4 of them combined would give us 90 points. You simply cannot replace Miller's offense.

 

Here's the list of players right around JT in the Stats:

Panarin (11.65m), Marner (10.9m), Rantanen (9.25m), P.Kane (10.5m), OVI8 (9.5m) and Stamkos (8.5m).

 

JT makes 5.25m and is locked in for the next year...there quite simply isn't another NHL'er right now that is more efficient $/pt and plays / scores at a first line rate than JT Miller, we have him, everybody else wants him...they can go suck it! Especially a couple of middle 6 forwards or middle pairing d-men. Put it this way, if we had Miko Rantanen on our team, would you trade him? No, you would build around him. We actually have the same point production from a player for 4m less, but you want to trade him? C'mon man.

This again. Trading Miller is not remotely about "replacing him". Never was, never will be.

 

His production will be replaced by committee/other moves/better defense/more offense from the defense/less goals against for a better goal differential/a more cohesive, better built team with an actual identity etc.

 

[ABNuck]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

This again. Trading Miller is not remotely about "replacing him". Never was, never will be.

 

His production will be replaced by committee/other moves/better defense/more offense from the defense/less goals against for a better goal differential/a more cohesive, better built team with an actual identity etc.

 

Wash, rinse, repeat. When does the rebuild actually end? When is it sufficient? We can play what if we trade this guy for that guy, what if we draft the next superstar...what if, what if, what if. Sooner or later we gotta build around a core. The best teams, the top tier teams are the ones that stick with their 10 best players and build chemistry with the guys that will be playing the bulk of the minutes. If we keep trading the players that give us an advantage then we'll never get there, we'll be perpetually in rebuild or middling mode. You rarely can replace the point production of one player when it's so high. So unless Pettersson and Boeser suddenly find an extra 15-20 points each and we add a 60 point player somehow (not sure what hat we pull that rabbit out of), why not just stick with the 93 point guy on the best contract in the NHL right now (save for MacKinnon). We can add on to that. The guy we CAN replace is Myers through the draft. He has 17 points so far this year...I'm willing to bet that we can replace those 17 points with a rookie RHD. So we give up nothing offense-wise, we add a big RHD on an ELC for the next 3 years, and we can use Myers 6 mil to keep Boeser and ADD better 3rd line players to compliment what we have now. Next year Luongo's dead cap is gone (we still have Holtby and Virtanen but we net gain 600k). Sutter's is off books and we can buy out Ferland...nets us another couple mil. We already signed Martin for half of what we paid Halak, so there's another 3/4 mil.

 

Our top 6F are Pettersson, Miller, Horvat, Garland, Boeser and I think Podz could step up. Let's say we have an extra 6.5mil next year. Brock gets 1.65 over current salary, that still leaves about 5 mil to bolster the middle 6 with another high end centreman. Our 3rd line would be Pearson, Hoglander and possibly Dickinson or the high end C. Don't forget we will also get an asset for trading Myers.

 

Everyone healthy, good depth, good coaching in a good system, awesome goaltending...this team will be a playoff team next year...I predict in the 10 - 13 range overall.

[aGENT]

27 minutes ago, ABNuck said:

Wash, rinse, repeat. When does the rebuild actually end? When is it sufficient? 

Not yet. This roster is overly reliant on Demko, lacks size, grit, speed, PK'ers and organizational depth, a 3C, has major structural and succession issues on D and no real identity. It's far from a contender and by the time it is, Miller will be declining. So yeah.

 

 

[ABNuck]

15 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Not yet. This roster is overly reliant on Demko, lacks size, grit, speed, PK'ers and organizational depth, a 3C, has major structural and succession issues on D and no real identity. It's far from a contender and by the time it is, Miller will be declining. So yeah.

 

 

They are just gaining their identity now, and Miller is very much a big part of that identity. If we move Miller, it will be a step backwards, not forwards...we gotta keep moving forward. Again, we will not gain by subtracting in this case, we will only delay AGAIN the compete window (hence the perpetual rebuild comment). Despite what you have negatively analyzed for this team, it's not nearly as bad as what you have stated. Let's look at them one at a time:

Overly reliant on Demko...I don't think so. Every good team has a backstop that steals saves and games for them, part of the formula.

Lack size and grit...save for Garland, the other 5 top 6 forwards are all 6ft and over. Horvat, Miller and Podz can all play tough and even Garland plays with an edge. Pettersson is soft and Boeser is average. The other 6 forwards are decent sized or play solid, not easy to push around. Now for the D, Hughes and Hunt are the only 2 under 6ft, and both can take the rough stuff no problem. We have players that will step up (OEL, Schenn, Podz, Horvat).

Speed...Horvat, Garland and Miller have good speed. Pettersson and Hughes are shifty, other critical players are at least average (granted some players are slow ie/ Chiasson but they aren't critical to the success...they can be replaced cheaply).

PK...agree, it has been tough but mostly in the front half of the season, much better now.

Depth...agree, but that is not easily fixed. In fact, by trading away at the top end you sacrifice what Miller brings to the table in hopes of some depth in the future, not worth it. Depth will come through the draft and development, not by trading away our valuable players now. Again, we end up in a perpetual cycle if we do that.

3C...100% agree, but read my last post. This is the area we use our $$ to fix this off-season.

D structure...somewhat agree but again, keeping the core 4 together (Hughes, OEL, our new RHD from the draft and whomever fills the 2nd pairing slot...hopefully Schenn) and allowing them to build chemistry and learn a working system is still better than tearing it down and starting over.

 

I believe we will be further ahead and keep moving forward if we keep our top 6, improve the D and the bottom 6. It isn't gonna happen in one season. Next year we finish building the team we want, make the playoffs and gain some experience, then in the following year we should be setup to be a top 8 team...anything can happen from there. For the first time in a few years I'm actually optimistic about the core and the direction.

[Ballisticsports.]

14 hours ago, aGENT said:

This again. Trading Miller is not remotely about "replacing him". Never was, never will be.

 

His production will be replaced by committee/other moves/better defense/more offense from the defense/less goals against for a better goal differential/a more cohesive, better built team with an actual identity etc.

 

I think the new management team is having the same discussions as you and ABNuck

I hope when we see the way they go, that we will all be onboard and have the expectations and excitement we had in 2011 very soon again

[ABNuck]

3 hours ago, ba;;isticsports said:

I think the new management team is having the same discussions as you and ABNuck

I hope when we see the way they go, that we will all be onboard and have the expectations and excitement we had in 2011 very soon again

Excellent point sir...one of the things I enjoy about these forums is the discussions with reasonable and intelligent fans like aGENT. We are able to each express our point, be them different, and not start tossing daggers...it's quite refreshing! I'm going to go back an upvote the interactions because they were executed with professionalism!