Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to make the playoffs

[DownUndaCanuck]

Kings getting bossed, sadly I think it'll look very close on the standings at the end but surely we'll fall short.

 

The next 4 games should be winnable. We just beat Vegas but they'll be the hardest test and we really suck at home, so for me the next game is the season-decider. Lose, it's over. Win and surely we can beat Ottawa and Arizona at home. The home Dallas game should be a breeze too - they suck on the road and are barely .500.

 

I think a loss against Minny or Calgary on the road is acceptable but you never know, we've been one of the league's best road teams all year long.

 

The last game against Edmonton you have to think Demko will start but that's almost a guaranteed L.

 

If we win these next 4 though it'll get interesting and that's all you can ask for - interesting/important games in April is a big step up.

[ABNuck]

I haven't reviewed all of the potential draft positions / picks as they've been presented in this thread, so I apologize for any repetition here...I think we'll be drafting in the 13-15 slot. I'm interested in a big R Dman to complement Hughes for years to come...our version of Keith / Seabrook.

 

If available when we pick, I'd like:

1 - David Jiricek (will probably go 7-10 range so will be gone)

2 - Tristan Luneau (should be in the 12-16 range so he will probably be our best shot). He's 6-2 190# right now, so expect 6-3 200# range when developed.

3 - Maveric Lamoureux (will go around 20-25 so we could take him early, or possibly trade down - but that is a dangerous gamble). Maveric would be a direct replacement for Myers (6-7 200#).

 

Anyways, just my 2 pennies on who / what we should draft.

Edited April 10, 2022 by ABNuck

[Sativika]

Really the only way we get in, and it's still not guaranteed that we will, is to place destiny in our own hands and win all the remaining games. A huge ask to be sure. 

[The Lock]

Personally, I'd rather be optimistic until we're mathematically out. I think having hope is better than automatically thinking it's over before it's actually over. I know there are people out there who would say this is "unrealistic", but I argue they're missing the point. It's about hope and cheering for your team. Besides, who doesn't like a good underdog story?

[FijianCanuck]

1 hour ago, The Lock said:

Personally, I'd rather be optimistic until we're mathematically out. I think having hope is better than automatically thinking it's over before it's actually over. I know there are people out there who would say this is "unrealistic", but I argue they're missing the point. It's about hope and cheering for your team. Besides, who doesn't like a good underdog story?

Beauty of sports. 

[Kevin Biestra]

2 hours ago, The Lock said:

Personally, I'd rather be optimistic until we're mathematically out. I think having hope is better than automatically thinking it's over before it's actually over. I know there are people out there who would say this is "unrealistic", but I argue they're missing the point. It's about hope and cheering for your team. Besides, who doesn't like a good underdog story?

 

Hey I'll take some pleasure in the wins if there's an actual chance of catching 3rd in the division, which there just barely is.

 

But when in the last...let's say 20 years to keep it a nice round number...when in the last 20 years have the Canucks snuck into the playoffs by winning at the end?  Their story is one of repeated winning streaks at the end of the year once they're already out of the playoffs or practically out of the playoffs, which does nothing but hurt draft position.  Heh, remember a few years ago when they were mathematically eliminated and people were saying that winning four meaningless games at the end of the year was going to have HUGE implications for Bo Horvat's development and a winning culture.

 

Anyway who knows...maybe this is the year they sneak in.

[ABNuck]

On 4/10/2022 at 1:47 PM, ABNuck said:

3-0-1...5-3-1 TO GO!

4-0-1...4-3-1 left for my prediction. I am now hoping that I am grossly wrong and we go something like 6-1-1 and finish with 95 points.

 

If the clubs above us play .500 hockey then final standing would be:

 

IN DIV: LA - 95 points (this might actually be our best shot...our ROW would be better)

 

W/C: NSH - 98 points / DAL - 97 points / VGK - 93 points...basically it wouldn't matter if we only pass VGK as NSH & DAL would take the other W/C slots. So as mentioned above, I think our best realistic shot is if LAK play .500 or worse (they are 4-4-2 in their last 10) and we take 3rd in PACDIV. It's weird that WPG could actually go on a bit of a run, finish with 96 points (6th in CTLDIV) and the PACDIV 3rd place team (LAK or us) would get in with 95 points...sometimes the NHL is weird.

 

[Kevin Biestra]

14 minutes ago, ABNuck said:

4-0-1...4-3-1 left for my prediction. I am now hoping that I am grossly wrong and we go something like 6-1-1 and finish with 95 points.

 

If the clubs above us play .500 hockey then final standing would be:

 

IN DIV: LA - 95 points (this might actually be our best shot...our ROW would be better)

 

W/C: NSH - 98 points / DAL - 97 points / VGK - 93 points...basically it wouldn't matter if we only pass VGK as NSH & DAL would take the other W/C slots. So as mentioned above, I think our best realistic shot is if LAK play .500 or worse (they are 4-4-2 in their last 10) and we take 3rd in PACDIV. It's weird that WPG could actually go on a bit of a run, finish with 96 points (6th in CTLDIV) and the PACDIV 3rd place team (LAK or us) would get in with 95 points...sometimes the NHL is weird.

 

 

With eight teams per division now there really is no need for the wild card spots at all.  They should just go back to how it was with Smythe / Patrick / Adams / Norris.  Top four make it, build up rivalries.  No need to make it complicated but the NHL always finds a way.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Kevin Biestra

[Warhippy]

OK kids here we go.

 

Vancouver 10th in the west with 8 games left and 82 points:  Arizona, Dallas/Ottawa, Minnesota, Calgary, Seattle, LA/Edmonton.  2 back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Vegas 9th in the west with 8 games left 85 points:  Calgary, Edmonton, Jersey, Washington, San Jose, Dallas/Chicago, St Louis.  One back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Dallas 8th in the west with 9 games left 88 points:  Minnesota, San Jose, Vancouver, Edmonton/Calgary, Seattle, Vegas/Arizona, Anaheim.  2 back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/stars/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Nashville 7th in the west with 9 games left 89 points:  Edmonton, Chicago/St Louis, Calgary, Tampa/Minnesota,  Calgary, Colorado/Arizona.  3 back to backs left.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Los Angeles 6th in the west with 7 games left 88 points:  Colorado*, Columbus, Anaheim, Chicago, Anaheim, Seattle/Vancouver:  1 Back to backs left (Avs game 2nd in 2 nights)

https://www.nhl.com/kings/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

This is where everything stands.  LA by far has the easiest schedule.  We absolutely cannot lose or give a single point to Dallas in that game or it's over.  Nashville has a game at hand but also the hardest schedule.  We literally need to go a minimum of 6-1-1 without losing to Dallas; and have Edmonton and Calgary stomp the crap out of Vegas and Dallas for us.  These are the games that matter the most.  It's entirely out of our hands as even going 8-0 is no guarantee.

 

To be completely honest, a Nashville collapse and Dallas going 3-5 would be the best possible eventuality for us.  But it's not a guarantee.

 

Make of this what you will

 

[ABNuck]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

OK kids here we go.

 

Vancouver 10th in the west with 8 games left and 82 points:  Arizona, Dallas/Ottawa, Minnesota, Calgary, Seattle, LA/Edmonton.  2 back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Vegas 9th in the west with 8 games left 85 points:  Calgary, Edmonton, Jersey, Washington, San Jose, Dallas/Chicago, St Louis.  One back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Dallas 8th in the west with 9 games left 88 points:  Minnesota, San Jose, Vancouver, Edmonton/Calgary, Seattle, Vegas/Arizona, Anaheim.  2 back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/stars/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Nashville 7th in the west with 9 games left 89 points:  Edmonton, Chicago/St Louis, Calgary, Tampa/Minnesota,  Calgary, Colorado/Arizona.  3 back to backs left.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Los Angeles 6th in the west with 7 games left 88 points:  Colorado*, Columbus, Anaheim, Chicago, Anaheim, Seattle/Vancouver:  1 Back to backs left (Avs game 2nd in 2 nights)

https://www.nhl.com/kings/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

This is where everything stands.  LA by far has the easiest schedule.  We absolutely cannot lose or give a single point to Dallas in that game or it's over.  Nashville has a game at hand but also the hardest schedule.  We literally need to go a minimum of 6-1-1 without losing to Dallas; and have Edmonton and Calgary stomp the crap out of Vegas and Dallas for us.  These are the games that matter the most.  It's entirely out of our hands as even going 8-0 is no guarantee.

 

To be completely honest, a Nashville collapse and Dallas going 3-5 would be the best possible eventuality for us.  But it's not a guarantee.

 

Make of this what you will

 

And as mentioned, an LAK collapse also helps us to finish 3rd in PACDIV so there's that possibility as well...and as I stated, it might well be our best shot.

[Warhippy]

51 minutes ago, ABNuck said:

And as mentioned, an LAK collapse also helps us to finish 3rd in PACDIV so there's that possibility as well...and as I stated, it might well be our best shot.

When I look at their schedule versus everyone else on that list. I just don't see them completely falling apart against their competition with so many days off between games

[Provost]

On 4/8/2022 at 8:21 AM, gurn said:

10 games left

Canucks are in 5th, 8  points behind L.A. for 3rd spot in Pacific, with 1 game in hand.

Vegas in 4rth,  4 points behind L.A., also with a game in hand.

 

-------------------------------------

Canucks in  4rth spot in the wildcard   6 points behind 2nd place Dallas, who have 2 games in hand

Vegas is in 3r, 4 points up, same games played.

 

 

Note-point totals are to tie the team, no tie breakers accounted for.

 

Seems O.P. was right.

 

 

 

Yep… I kind of wish I didn’t see probabilities so clearly, it would be less depressing the last few years.  There is a reason why you can predict the playoff teams with starling accuracy by American Thanksgiving. 
 

Aside from the very best and very worst teams in the league, there is a pretty narrow range of winning percentages for everyone else.  That makes it really hard to come back once you have fallen behind the pack.

 

Even with basically everything going our way with a ridiculous long stretch of elite even winning percentage AND a bunch of other divisional teams deciding to have their own turtle derby of terrible play… we are still likely going to end up exactly as many points out of a playoff spot as we were when I made the thread.  Missing by 6-8 points.

 

I am glad we are playing meaningful games right to the end of the season.  I HOPE not making moves at the deadline and the half season of good play doesn’t end up biting us in the ass in the long run.  Until this regime proves itself incompetent, I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

I hope next year in November I will be calling the season a success with us likely to be in the playoffs (instead of out of it).

[Provost]

On 4/10/2022 at 4:36 PM, ABNuck said:

I haven't reviewed all of the potential draft positions / picks as they've been presented in this thread, so I apologize for any repetition here...I think we'll be drafting in the 13-15 slot. I'm interested in a big R Dman to complement Hughes for years to come...our version of Keith / Seabrook.

 

If available when we pick, I'd like:

1 - David Jiricek (will probably go 7-10 range so will be gone)

2 - Tristan Luneau (should be in the 12-16 range so he will probably be our best shot). He's 6-2 190# right now, so expect 6-3 200# range when developed.

3 - Maveric Lamoureux (will go around 20-25 so we could take him early, or possibly trade down - but that is a dangerous gamble). Maveric would be a direct replacement for Myers (6-7 200#).

 

Anyways, just my 2 pennies on who / what we should draft.

Ya, assuming Nemec and Jiricek are long gone by the time we pick… Maverick Lamoureux was the guy that caught my eye.

 

In the middle of the 1st round there isn’t much different between the #12 guy and the #25 guy in terms of panning out.  I would be all for reading down to pick Lamoureaux a little later and recoup a 2nd or 3rd in exchange.

[ABNuck]

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

When I look at their schedule versus everyone else on that list. I just don't see them completely falling apart against their competition with so many days off between games

Yup, agree. We're most likely picking around 15 instead of playing a round of PO hockey...would be nice for character building, but a nice big RHD would be nice too!

[24K PureCool]

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

When I look at their schedule versus everyone else on that list. I just don't see them completely falling apart against their competition with so many days off between games

I see LA collapsing but that probably benefit Vegas more than us. 

 

Not gonna be surprised we are the 9th seed in the west when it is all said and done. 

[CanucksFan8353]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

Yep… I kind of wish I didn’t see probabilities so clearly, it would be less depressing the last few years.  There is a reason why you can predict the playoff teams with starling accuracy by American Thanksgiving. 
 

Aside from the very best and very worst teams in the league, there is a pretty narrow range of winning percentages for everyone else.  That makes it really hard to come back once you have fallen behind the pack.

 

Even with basically everything going our way with a ridiculous long stretch of elite even winning percentage AND a bunch of other divisional teams deciding to have their own turtle derby of terrible play… we are still likely going to end up exactly as many points out of a playoff spot as we were when I made the thread.  Missing by 6-8 points.

 

I am glad we are playing meaningful games right to the end of the season.  I HOPE not making moves at the deadline and the half season of good play doesn’t end up biting us in the ass in the long run.  Until this regime proves itself incompetent, I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

I hope next year in November I will be calling the season a success with us likely to be in the playoffs (instead of out of it).

Just curious what your "probabilities" would have shown the odds were of there being a Game 7 against Chicago in WCQF Round 1, 2011 or the odds of that Game 7 being pushed to OT on a short-handed goal by the Hawks with 2 minutes left?  Also, curious what your "probabilities" would have shown the odds were for the Boston Bruins coming back from a 0-2 deficit in the SCF were?  Also, curious what your probabilities would have shown that the Canucks would come back from 3-1 down against Calgary in Round 1 in 1994 and win in OT in Game 7 in Calgary or that the Canucks would come back from 3-1 down in the SCF and lose the Stanley Cup by 1 goal at Madison Square?

 

Also, very curious what your probabilities at this point would have shown of the 2011 Blackhawks making the Stanley Cup playoffs or of the 2012 Kings making the playoffs?

 

Also, very curious what your probabilities would have shown the odds were of the Canucks going 2-0-1 in the 3-game set just recently held against Vegas?

 

I quit online gambling because I cannot count the number of times that the probabilities given showed that my bet was a sure thing, like 3 to 1, and I lost more than I cared to lose. 

 

There was an English premiere game I considered betting on but by then was so scarred by my losses, I didn't thankfully.  The odds were like, in decimal form, 1.50 for Manchester City to win and something like 15.00 in decimal form for a draw.  Sure enough it was a draw. 

 

There was a MLB game involving some southwestern US teams I believe that I bet $200+ on earlier in the spring where the team was up 6-0.  The odds given were like 1.20 for the team up 6-0 to win and somewhere around 4.5 to 5.5, that the team down 6-0 would win.  Sure enough, the team given 5.5. chances to win walked away with the victory.

 

Another example, slightly more even odds but I bet on Denis Shapavolov winning his round at the tennis Miami Open.  It was like 1.65 to 1.6 for Denis.  2.5 to 2.7 for the other guy.  The probabilities showed Denis was a sure bet.  I bet a lot on him winning.  The guy the bookies gave around a 2.5 to 2.7 decimal point chance of winning, of course, won.  The probabilities shouted that Denis would win.  Didn't work out too well for me going with it.

 

Also, a lot of times, I used to be like "wow, 538's model predicts a 98% chance team X wins tonight.  I should bet on them. It's guaranteed cash.  The odds are 98%!" Sure enough, I logged off poorer rather than richer. If probabilities are the be all and end all, why does 538 have so many busts on their forecasts across the NBA, NHL and MLB in games where they give a 90% chance or higher of one team winning?

 

f I was wrong, I should be be a millionaire by now by just betting every night on the games in the NBA, NHL and MLB that 538 predicts one team has a 90%+ chance of winning in.  Sadly, I can't do that because I would go bankrupt because their 90% forecast busts too much to make any money off it.  

 

CBS Sportsline is another example.  I lost hundreds betting on their A rating.  They told me they ran a simulation thousands of times and team x beat the spread greater than 70% of the time in the simulations.  So, I bet big.  CBS Sportsline had an A rating and their simulations showed 70%+ of the time, team X beat the spread.  Of course, team Y beat the spread instead.  Why did Team Y win when CBS Sportsline gave Team X an A rating to win and their computer simulations showed thousands of times and 70% of the total runs a Team X beat-the-spread victory?

 

Sports are decided by real human beings with intangible factors coming into play.  If that was not the case, then I suggest simply sending the athletes home and letting the super computers simulate the results each night at midnight and fans of the various leagues can just sign up for a e-mail each morning that shows the results of the super-computer simulations and what the probabilities given by the mathematical equations used resulted in. 

 

No need to play the games.  The "probabilities" already have established the victor anyways.

Edited April 14, 2022 by CanucksFan8353

[Provost]

9 hours ago, CanucksFan8353 said:

Just curious what your "probabilities" would have shown the odds were of there being a Game 7 against Chicago in WCQF Round 1, 2011 or the odds of that Game 7 being pushed to OT on a short-handed goal by the Hawks with 2 minutes left?  Also, curious what your "probabilities" would have shown the odds were for the Boston Bruins coming back from a 0-2 deficit in the SCF were?  Also, curious what your probabilities would have shown that the Canucks would come back from 3-1 down against Calgary in Round 1 in 1994 and win in OT in Game 7 in Calgary or that the Canucks would come back from 3-1 down in the SCF and lose the Stanley Cup by 1 goal at Madison Square?

 

Also, very curious what your probabilities at this point would have shown of the 2011 Blackhawks making the Stanley Cup playoffs or of the 2012 Kings making the playoffs?

 

Also, very curious what your probabilities would have shown the odds were of the Canucks going 2-0-1 in the 3-game set just recently held against Vegas?

 

I quit online gambling because I cannot count the number of times that the probabilities given showed that my bet was a sure thing, like 3 to 1, 

If you are moaning about a bunch of single game or game and single instance events you really don’t know much about probabilities at all.

 

Ignoring the fact that your 98% chance in games is purely made up because single game action is drastically more even than that… if something has a 98% probability, that means over a large number of instances, it is likely to happen 2 times out of a hundred.  Ignoring the other 98 times and yelling about how those two time “defied the odds” is ludicrous and nonsensical.

 

Flipping a coin is 50/50 odds.  It is possible you can flip it twice and get heads both times.  It is possible you could flip heads 5 times in a row… but less likely.  Over 1000 flips it will almost assuredly even out to right around the 50/50 mark give or take a few flips.

 

The reason you lose at gambling is the betting houses understand probability a whole lot better than you.  They and insurance companies have built into the system that they will always win over time.

 

Sure the Canucks could make the playoffs with a 3% chance, but if you have read and comprehended any part of this thread… you would understand that making moves assuming that 3% is going to hurt the team over the long run because they are going to fail almost every time.  Betting on long odds is stupid.  

[aGENT]

13 hours ago, Provost said:

Ya, assuming Nemec and Jiricek are long gone by the time we pick… 

Another reason I'd be all for that Miller trade.

 

If we can package our 12-15 first, and the late first we likely see in the Miller trade, to move up to the 5-7 range to get Jiricek....

 

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by aGENT

[ABNuck]

3 hours ago, aGENT said:

Another reason I'd be all for that Miller trade.

 

If we can package our 12-15 first, and the late first we likely see in the Miller trade, to move up to the 5-7 range to get Jiricek....

 

 

Hmmm, I dunno...seems like addition by subtraction. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to have DJ in our lineup, but the other 2 RHD I mentioned could turn out to be almost as good, and we get to keep Miller for his offensive side role. If you delete Miller and his points just to shore up the D, then you might still lose a bunch of games cause you can't score. We need both to compete in the next 2 years.

 

Pickup the RHD to pair with QH

Dump Myers for a 2nd

Use the extra 6mil capspace to re-sign Miller and Boeser.

 

Gives us both the D and the O needed to compete.

[aGENT]

37 minutes ago, ABNuck said:

Hmmm, I dunno...seems like addition by subtraction. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to have DJ in our lineup, but the other 2 RHD I mentioned could turn out to be almost as good, and we get to keep Miller for his offensive side role. If you delete Miller and his points just to shore up the D, then you might still lose a bunch of games cause you can't score. We need both to compete in the next 2 years.

 

Pickup the RHD to pair with QH

Dump Myers for a 2nd

Use the extra 6mil capspace to re-sign Miller and Boeser.

 

Gives us both the D and the O needed to compete.

Any first coming back in a Miller trade is going to be the 3rd or 4th piece.  It's not just Miller for a late first.

 

You get two other good pieces, loads of cap space, and perhaps, the chance to move up for a guy Jiricek. All while not saddling ourselves to a huge contract that Miller is almost guaranteed to regress under, and not be full value through it, and an anchor at the young core's peak