Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to make the playoffs

[aGENT]

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

They are just gaining their identity now, and Miller is very much a big part of that identity. If we move Miller, it will be a step backwards, not forwards...we gotta keep moving forward. Again, we will not gain by subtracting in this case, we will only delay AGAIN the compete window (hence the perpetual rebuild comment). Despite what you have negatively analyzed for this team, it's not nearly as bad as what you have stated. Let's look at them one at a time:

Overly reliant on Demko...I don't think so. Every good team has a backstop that steals saves and games for them, part of the formula.

Demko isn't the problem. Being overly reliant on him to actually win games is. Having a good goalie is great, you need to put a team in front of them though.

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

Lack size and grit...save for Garland, the other 5 top 6 forwards are all 6ft and over. Horvat, Miller and Podz can all play tough and even Garland plays with an edge. Pettersson is soft and Boeser is average. The other 6 forwards are decent sized or play solid, not easy to push around. Now for the D, Hughes and Hunt are the only 2 under 6ft, and both can take the rough stuff no problem. We have players that will step up (OEL, Schenn, Podz, Horvat).

Agree Podz arrival in the top 6 is a boon. Would still like to see more there and in especially, our bottom 6.

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

Speed...Horvat, Garland and Miller have good speed. Pettersson and Hughes are shifty, other critical players are at least average (granted some players are slow ie/ Chiasson but they aren't critical to the success...they can be replaced cheaply).

Good speed, not great. Same goes for our bottom 6, and D again. Having all of Boeser, Pearson, Chiasson, Schenn... Makes for a slow team.

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

PK...agree, it has been tough but mostly in the front half of the season, much better now.

Better now absolutely. Getting a veteran guy like Richardson has surely helped. We need more guys in our bottom 6 who are actually good penalty killers including that 3c.

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

Depth...agree, but that is not easily fixed. In fact, by trading away at the top end you sacrifice what Miller brings to the table in hopes of some depth in the future, not worth it. Depth will come through the draft and development, not by trading away our valuable players now. Again, we end up in a perpetual cycle if we do that.

No, we really don't. Trading Miller would inherently multiply assets and increase depth,  while also freeing current and future cap space. Miller is great now, but paying +/-$9m to and eventual middle 6 player, right when the young core is peaking is bad math.

 

I also hope to see management bring the strength they had in Pittsburgh and finding undrafted college/Euro etc guys along through their farm system. We can't rely on JUST the draft, especially if people want to hang on to guys like Miller and we're already

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

3C...100% agree, but read my last post. This is the area we use our $$ to fix this off-season.

Agree, but what $? Without moves we don't have the cap to target a 3C.

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

D structure...somewhat agree but again, keeping the core 4 together (Hughes, OEL, our new RHD from the draft and whomever fills the 2nd pairing slot...hopefully Schenn) and allowing them to build chemistry and learn a working system is still better than tearing it down and starting over.

Any D we draft is likely at least a year way. Even if we manage a top 5 pick for a guy like Jiricek. Schenn as admirable as his play has been, should not be in our top 4. Either way he expires next year. Myers the year after. Both are at ages we shouldn't likely be extending them, certainly not at meaningful cap hits and certainly not to be playing top 4. We basically have Hughes and OEL. That's it. We're a couple seasons from having Poolman, Juulsen, Woo as our right side D. That is not a contending D.

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

I believe we will be further ahead and keep moving forward if we keep our top 6, improve the D and the bottom 6. It isn't gonna happen in one season. Next year we finish building the team we want, make the playoffs and gain some experience, then in the following year we should be setup to be a top 8 team...anything can happen from there.

But you need cap space to make those improvements, either for trades, or for UFA's. That cap space disappears fast paying Miller $4m more to regress in a few years.

 

14 hours ago, ABNuck said:

For the first time in a few years I'm actually optimistic about the core and the direction.

Agree that the young core is great and we absolutely should build towards their prime, which is 2-7 years from now. Most of those years will be with a regressed, $9m Miller. That's bad math.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Demko isn't the problem. Being overly reliant on him to actually win games is. Having a good goalie is great, you need to put a team in front of them though.

 

Agree Podz arrival in the top 6 is a boon. Would still like to see more there and in especially, our bottom 6.

 

Good speed, not great. Same goes for our bottom 6, and D again. Having all of Boeser, Pearson, Chiasson, Schenn... Makes for a slow team.

 

Better now absolutely. Getting a veteran guy like Richardson has surely helped. We need more guys in our bottom 6 who are actually good penalty killers including that 3c.

 

No, we really don't. Trading Miller would inherently multiply assets and increase depth,  while also freeing current and future cap space. Miller is great now, but paying +/-$9m to and eventual middle 6 player, right when the young core is peaking is bad math.

 

I also hope to see management bring the strength they had in Pittsburgh and finding undrafted college/Euro etc guys along through their farm system. We can't rely on JUST the draft, especially if people want to hang on to guys like Miller and we're already

 

Agree, but what $? Without moves we don't have the cap to target a 3C.

 

Any D we draft is likely at least a year way. Even if we manage a top 5 pick for a guy like Jiricek. Schenn as admirable as his play has been, should not be in our top 4. Either way he expires next year. Myers the year after. Both are at ages we shouldn't likely be extending them, certainly not at meaningful cap hits and certainly not to be playing top 4. We basically have Hughes and OEL. That's it. We're a couple seasons from having Poolman, Juulsen, Woo as our right side D. That is not a contending D.

 

But you need cap space to make those improvements, either for trades, or for UFA's. That cap space disappears fast paying Miller $4m more to regress in a few years.

 

Agree that the young core is great and we absolutely should build towards their prime, which is 2-7 years from now. Most of those years will be with a regressed, $9m Miller. That's bad math.

Miller is going to be a rental to wherever he’s traded.  The quoting team will see him like we do.  So which teams will rent JT for one year?

LA

Rags

Carolina

Avs

 

Do we try to get several pieces or one really good Piece?  

Whats one really good piece we would need (be a good trade for us) from each team?

 

[aGENT]

17 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Miller is going to be a rental to wherever he’s traded.  The quoting team will see him like we do.  So which teams will rent JT for one year?

LA

Rags

Carolina

Avs

 

Do we try to get several pieces or one really good Piece?  

Whats one really good piece we would need (be a good trade for us) from each team?

 

Certainly possible. Also possible a team like Boston sees him as a mid term C replacement for an aging Bergeron, to keep them competitive, and makes space for him.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Certainly possible. Also possible a team like Boston sees him as a mid term C replacement for an aging Bergeron, to keep them competitive, and makes space for him.

That’s a good point about the Bruins.  Pasta is in the heart of his prime, and they still have a good club.  Miller for next year at 5.2 and then they can extend him.  

I have no clue wha5 they have to trade though.  (Don’t want deBrusk.)

Do they have a young centre, young d, and picks we would want? 

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

That’s a good point about the Bruins.  Pasta is in the heart of his prime, and they still have a good club.  Miller for next year at 5.2 and then they can extend him.  

McAvoy too. This is the thing. There are in fact good teams who would be more than happy to make room to extend him. Not just teams that view him only was a rental ( though they'd be there too. But they're all going to be bidding against eachother regardless. 

 

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I have no clue wha5 they have to trade though.  (Don’t want deBrusk.)

Do they have a young centre, young d, and picks we would want? 

That's the rub. They're lacking in the pieces we'd be looking for. I'd love Carlo but I doubt they have any desire to give him up. Lyssel and a first is a decent start to an offer but it's lacking a main piece. Debrusk is "ok" as cap coming back but his value is at best, largely neutral/aka not good enough.

[Fred65]

It's that time of the year again. Our attention turns to the draft, having missed the play-offs again. Fans who ever we pick, will drool about our selection and insist our troubles are over and how we have oustanding prospects. Few of whom turn out as expected ( why's no one talking about Kole Lind moments )  We'll be picking around the 15th slot which doesn't exactly get us a difference maker. It's paainful to be in the middle of the pack, never bad enough to get the prize player and never good enough to win the Cup.

[qwijibo]

8 hours ago, Fred65 said:

It's that time of the year again. Our attention turns to the draft, having missed the play-offs again. Fans who ever we pick, will drool about our selection and insist our troubles are over and how we have oustanding prospects. Few of whom turn out as expected ( why's no one talking about Kole Lind moments )  We'll be picking around the 15th slot which doesn't exactly get us a difference maker. It's paainful to be in the middle of the pack, never bad enough to get the prize player and never good enough to win the Cup.

Some very good difference maker players have been drafted at 15. (Including JT Miller). They generally need a few years of development but it doesn’t mean you can’t get a foundational player at 15. 
 

it’s even more true this season. A lot of players haven’t played a lot of games in the last 2 years.  A real gem could easily drop down to 15

 

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by qwijibo

[Fred65]

20 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Some very good difference maker players have been drafted at 15. (Including JT Miller). They generally need a few years of development but it doesn’t mean you can’t get a foundational player at 15. 
 

it’s even more true this season. A lot of players haven’t played a lot of games in the last 2 years.  A real gem could easily drop down to 15

 

 

Bingo  as I said " Fans who ever we pick, will drool about our selection " and this is still April 

[qwijibo]

27 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

Bingo  as I said " Fans who ever we pick, will drool about our selection " and this is still April 

You’re saying a difference maker can’t be found at 15.  I’m saying one can be.   Will they hit on one? Who knows.  But to out and out say they won’t get one at 15 isn’t necessarily true. 

[Pears]

[Ballisticsports.]

9 hours ago, qwijibo said:

Some very good difference maker players have been drafted at 15. (Including JT Miller). They generally need a few years of development but it doesn’t mean you can’t get a foundational player at 15. 
 

it’s even more true this season. A lot of players haven’t played a lot of games in the last 2 years.  A real gem could easily drop down to 15

 

 

That is true, not just at 15 ,some of the names below were found at 200+, but the odds of it panning out are low (much like this topic we are responding too) to find another Gaudreau, Benn, Point, Robitaille, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hasek, Theo Fleury, Lundqvist, Brett Hull, Pavelski, Gilmour - It would be awesome to find a similar gem though at any late pick (or early pick)

[theochar]

 

  All because we kept fighting, squeaky bum time in Dallas and Vegas!!!!!! Keep going boys!!!

Edited April 25, 2022 by theochar
add

[aGENT]

10 hours ago, qwijibo said:

Some very good difference maker players have been drafted at 15. (Including JT Miller). They generally need a few years of development but it doesn’t mean you can’t get a foundational player at 15. 
 

it’s even more true this season. A lot of players haven’t played a lot of games in the last 2 years.  A real gem could easily drop down to 15

 

 

We don't want any of your stinking Barzal's, McAvoys, Chychruns, Millers, Connors etc that can be found mid first!

Edited April 25, 2022 by aGENT

[HKSR]

7 hours ago, Pears said:

Lol, if that happens, I will anoint my biggest adversaries on this board @stawns and @aGENT as "the greatest men to ever live on this planet" in my signature until the end of next season. 

[stawns]

13 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Lol, if that happens, I will anoint my biggest adversaries on this board @stawns and @aGENT as "the greatest men to ever live on this planet" in my signature until the end of next season. 

Not sure what the connection is

[Me_]

I don’t understand the tie breaker…

 

Dallas losing all three of their remaining games and Vancouver winning all their three remaining games makes that both Dallas and Vancouver would have 93pts each.

 

It would mean that Dallas would have won 44 games on the season while Vancouver would’ve won 41 games…

 

Can anyone explain that to me?

 

Thanks.

[24K PureCool]

42 minutes ago, Me_ said:

I don’t understand the tie breaker…

 

Dallas losing all three of their remaining games and Vancouver winning all their three remaining games makes that both Dallas and Vancouver would have 93pts each.

 

It would mean that Dallas would have won 44 games on the season while Vancouver would’ve won 41 games…

 

Can anyone explain that to me?

 

Thanks.

Regulation wins followed by overtime wins. 

 

Essentially we will win more games in regulation and overtime than Dallas if they lose all their remaining game regulation while we win out in regulation. 

[UnkNuk]

12 hours ago, Pears said:

There's still a chance!!!           

 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nhl-predictions/?cid=rrpromo

[ABNuck]

Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to make the playoffs

 

Fixed up the title for ya.

 

New topic should be:

 

Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to pick 1st OA

[Smashian Kassian]

Do we even have a chance to pick 1st (assuming were 14th-16th) or did the NHL change the lotto rules again?