[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[Gawdzukes]

2 hours ago, shiznak said:

Man, can you imagine a Cup contender playing, a player like Burroughs in their top 4.

Lol, this guy would pencil in Snoopy on 3rd line LW, and Woodstock on RD to make a case. He seems to think there are several spots on hockey teams that don't really matter. Just pencil in cheap guy there and Miller will play 49 minutes a game and backup goalie to pick up the slack. 

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Name one player signed at 30 or older to a 60 million dollar contract who's team won a cup during that contract? 

That's very specific.  How many years is that contract?  If $60m over 8 years, that's 7.5m in today's dollars.  

 

On quick glance, Ryan McDonough was signed to a 7 year deal at the age of 30 for 6.75m AAV.  Tampa has won 2 cups since then.

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

How we do in these games shouldn't matter.  We aren't even a playoff team with Miller being fabulous.  We lose assets not trading Miller now.  Those are assets we can't afford to lose out on aquiring.

What happened to you Alf?  You used to tout the Canucks record under coach BB, now you are just ignoring it? 

[higgyfan]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

by the time we find out Miller's contract demands it's summer and his value has dropped significantly.  Miller right now is worth a lot.  We wait, and we are throwing away assets.  That's exactly what we've been doing for 8 years.  It's just the same thing.  We must move this team foward.

It seems that teams aren't lining up to acquire him though.  It can't get better than having him for a full season and

and 2 playoffs, or even trade him at next year's TD for a bundle.  Seems that the Nucks are asking too much, or want

to keep him for at least another season.

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

I'm just doing what we all do best, arguing the best case scenario from our perspective 

 

I did a spreadsheet as usual and was able to fit in a 5.5m top 4 RHD in addition to Myers.  Schenn or Burroughs was 3rd pair RHD.

But that's not what we're all doing. 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

What happened to you Alf?  You used to tout the Canucks record under coach BB, now you are just ignoring it? 

BB's comments after last game got me doing some heaving drinking thinking.  

[T.Demko]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I'm not ever gonna say keep Miller no matter what.  There's at least 2 reasons why I'd want him traded.

1. He wants $10m+.  My line is $9m.  Anything significantly over that and I can't justify him staying for that.

2. If he doesn't want to stay, then obviously we need to move on.

 

We're not arguing that.  

 

The reason we are pro moving Miller this trade deadline is because his value will be at the highest, and the risk on our end the lowest.  Simply put:

 

- He is producing at a ridiculous, unsustainable pace

- Provides the other team with 2 potential playoff run with J.T. Miller at a great money contract

- The other team also sees value in engaging Miller's camp as early this summer for an extension, and allows them to plan accordingly

- Removes risk on our end with any potential injury that could devalue / sideline him before the next Trade Deadline

- Removes risk on our end with any production decrease next season that may take away his value.  Yes, his production could somehow be sustained, but that wouldn't necessarily up his value from here

- If J.T. Miller wants out, or does not see eye to eye with the Canucks Management on his next contract during this summer, we run into taking on the risks mentioned above

- If Canucks are in a playoff spot / fighting for a playoff spot next season, without an JT extension, now we are most likely going to the open market with J.T. Miller

- If J.T. Miller signs an extension, it is highly likely it will be done in this off-season.  That means we are caving into basically what Miller would want in the open market.  This contract will be very expensive, loads of money for probably max terms.

 

It isn't because we think picks and prospects are shiny and we believe those always turn to McDavid's.  We understand there are much more risk involved the longer we hold onto Miller.  We're the Vancouver Canucks, not the Vancouver Millers.  We believe cashing in on Miller, while ridding ourselves of the associated risks, brings the best chance to the team for building out a true contender for years to come.

[Kobayashi Maru]

Players values are completely related to their contracts.  Miller is of extreme value this year and next because of performance vs contract.  Because of this, contenders are likely willing to line up to share future assets with us to put them over the top.  Because we are currently a middling team this year and next as our young core emerges we need to trade him to a team that is pushing for the cup now.

 

Once Miller signs an 8-9M contract his value will likely be pretty much zero, meaning if we decided to trade him during that contract we would likely get nothing in return, and once he’s a 50 point player again he will be negative value at 8-9M.

 

in summary, trade him for the best return you can now.

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

BB's comments after last game got me doing some heaving drinking thinking.  

What did he say?

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, T.Demko said:

We're not arguing that.  

 

The reason we are pro moving Miller this trade deadline is because his value will be at the highest, and the risk on our end the lowest.  Simply put:

 

- He is producing at a ridiculous, unsustainable pace

- Provides the other team with 2 potential playoff run with J.T. Miller at a great money contract

- The other team also sees value in engaging Miller's camp as early this summer for an extension, and allows them to plan accordingly

- Removes risk on our end with any potential injury that could devalue / sideline him before the next Trade Deadline

- Removes risk on our end with any production decrease next season that may take away his value.  Yes, his production could somehow be sustained, but that wouldn't necessarily up his value from here

- If J.T. Miller wants out, or does not see eye to eye with the Canucks Management on his next contract during this summer, we run into taking on the risks mentioned above

- If Canucks are in a playoff spot / fighting for a playoff spot next season, without an JT extension, now we are most likely going to the open market with J.T. Miller

- If J.T. Miller signs an extension, it is highly likely it will be done in this off-season.  That means we are caving into basically what Miller would want in the open market.  This contract will be very expensive, loads of money for probably max terms.

 

It isn't because we think picks and prospects are shiny and we believe those always turn to McDavid's.  We understand there are much more risk involved the longer we hold onto Miller.  We're the Vancouver Canucks, not the Vancouver Millers.  We believe cashing in on Miller, while ridding ourselves of the associated risks, brings the best chance to the team for building out a true contender for years to come.

I hear all of that and I fully understand where you are coming from.  Honest.  However I'm just of the mindset that this run with coach BB is no fluke.  22-9-4 speaks volumes.  That's almost half a season of nearly .700 hockey.  I just don't think we are as far off as it may seem just because we are on the bubble right now.  Green and his .300 hockey for 1/4 of a season really put us behind the 8 ball.

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

It seems that teams aren't lining up to acquire him though.  It can't get better than having him for a full season and

and 2 playoffs, or even trade him at next year's TD for a bundle.  Seems that the Nucks are asking too much, or want

to keep him for at least another season.

I do like how Tampa built their D through every way except the draft.  Only Hedman was their draft pick. 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

I do like how Tampa built their D through every way except the draft.  Only Hedman was their draft pick. 

And Hughes is ours  I like UFA defencemen pickups way more than forwards.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

What did he say?

BB, after last game, said that was our worst start since he's been here.  And that he couldn't explain why.  He again mentioned how Demko keeps us in games we don't deserve to be in.

[Warhippy]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

But I repeat, neither one of them was top 10 or even top 25 in scoring at the age of 29 or 30.  

Ya?

 

How about when they signed their contracts?  What happened after they signed them?  Want me to fill you in?  

 

Jamie Benn:  2016/2017 at age 26 was 22nd in league scoring. After he signed his contract at 27 he was again 22nd in league scoring in 2017/2018.  Signed his contract after an 89 point season.  Afterwards he has posted 69, 79, 53, 39* 35* and as of this year, 34 current points.  For $9 million he is on pace for less than 50 points this season.  You can see clearly the fall off in point totals as he has aged and he was 3 years younger than Miller and had multiple 70+ point seasons prior to signing.  Would you be accepting of a player making $9 million for less than 50 points?

 

Tyler Seguin:  2018/2019 at age 26 he was 28th in league scoring.  After he signed his contract at 27 he was 69th in league scoring.  Signed his contract after a 78 point season.  Afterwards he has posted 2*, and now a 33 point campaign after missing most of or all of the 2020/2021 season.  On pace for less than 50 points for $9.85 million but signed his current contract after multiple consecutive 70+ point seasons.  You can again clearly see the fall off in point totals as he was 3 years younger than Miller when he signed his contract and a cup winner with Boston.

 

JT Miller, has only net 2 seasons over 70 points with this season being one of them.  Most likely 3 but a covid shortened season didn't help.  He has played his best over the last 2.5 seasons after posting a career average 52 points (give or take) per season.  But will be 30 when his new contract kicks in.  Knowing the historical standard for forwards over 30 to fall off in point totals what is a 50-60 point player worth? How about a 40-50 point player?

 

The issue is we could very easily be looking at a Jason Blake or Jonathan Cheechoo bump here in which for a few seasons a player is lights out, has a career defining season and gets paid then....well, you know.

 

Miller is having an amazing year.  Is the player you want on your team but at 30+ with a $9+ million contract (and don't kid yourself he's absolutely not taking a team friendly discount; nobody does, he becomes as much a liability as holding a Poolman, Halak, Dickinson etc on your roster eating all that extra cap.

 

Miller at $7 million is great.  $8 million front loaded is workable but $9+ million as his current play and comparable have dictated he will be worth is an almost guaranteed anchor by season 4 and nobody would touch that without us greasing serious palms for doing it.

 

I'd be as inclined to trade Miller for the prospects in the places we need them and making a play for PLD in Winnipeg because he has all those intangible qualities and same mannerisms in his play as Miller did before we picked him up.

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

BB, after last game, said that was our worst start since he's been here.  And that he couldn't explain why.  He again mentioned how Demko keeps us in games we don't deserve to be in.

I see... I don't know why they can't show up for the must win games either.  I think I recall BB also mentioning they're planning on bringing in psychologists too... yowza.

[HKSR]

Just now, Warhippy said:

Ya?

 

How about when they signed their contracts?  What happened after they signed them?  Want me to fill you in?  

 

Jamie Benn:  2016/2017 at age 26 was 22nd in league scoring. After he signed his contract at 27 he was again 22nd in league scoring in 2017/2018.  Signed his contract after an 89 point season.  Afterwards he has posted 69, 79, 53, 39* 35* and as of this year, 34 current points.  For $9 million he is on pace for less than 50 points this season.  You can see clearly the fall off in point totals as he has aged and he was 3 years younger than Miller and had multiple 70+ point seasons prior to signing.  Would you be accepting of a player making $9 million for less than 50 points?

 

Tyler Seguin:  2018/2019 at age 26 he was 28th in league scoring.  After he signed his contract at 27 he was 69th in league scoring.  Signed his contract after a 78 point season.  Afterwards he has posted 2*, and now a 33 point campaign after missing most of or all of the 2020/2021 season.  On pace for less than 50 points for $9.85 million but signed his current contract after multiple consecutive 70+ point seasons.  You can again clearly see the fall off in point totals as he was 3 years younger than Miller when he signed his contract and a cup winner with Boston.

 

JT Miller, has only net 2 seasons over 70 points with this season being one of them.  Most likely 3 but a covid shortened season didn't help.  He has played his best over the last 2.5 seasons after posting a career average 52 points (give or take) per season.  But will be 30 when his new contract kicks in.  Knowing the historical standard for forwards over 30 to fall off in point totals what is a 50-60 point player worth? How about a 40-50 point player?

 

The issue is we could very easily be looking at a Jason Blake or Jonathan Cheechoo bump here in which for a few seasons a player is lights out, has a career defining season and gets paid then....well, you know.

 

Miller is having an amazing year.  Is the player you want on your team but at 30+ with a $9+ million contract (and don't kid yourself he's absolutely not taking a team friendly discount; nobody does, he becomes as much a liability as holding a Poolman, Halak, Dickinson etc on your roster eating all that extra cap.

 

Miller at $7 million is great.  $8 million front loaded is workable but $9+ million as his current play and comparable have dictated he will be worth is an almost guaranteed anchor by season 4 and nobody would touch that without us greasing serious palms for doing it.

 

I'd be as inclined to trade Miller for the prospects in the places we need them and making a play for PLD in Winnipeg because he has all those intangible qualities and same mannerisms in his play as Miller did before we picked him up.

Yes just keep ignoring the comparables and pick and choose those that fit your narrative.  Maybe compare Miller to Lucic too.  They're both big and strong.

[T.Demko]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I hear all of that and I fully understand where you are coming from.  Honest.  However I'm just of the mindset that this run with coach BB is no fluke.  22-9-4 speaks volumes.  That's almost half a season of nearly .700 hockey.  I just don't think we are as far off as it may seem just because we are on the bubble right now.  Green and his .300 hockey for 1/4 of a season really put us behind the 8 ball.

I think the management is thinking the same as well, hence why we're seeing the Garland talks heat up.  Probably wants to tweak our defense in exchange for a money contract like Garland, and engage the Miller camp heavily for an extension this coming summer.  Once again, is Miller going to live up to his contract?  Nobody knows.  We've just had too many anchor contracts and I think the fanbase is allowed to have some serious doubt.  

 

Regardless, the ownership has always had their eyes set on doing whatever to make the playoffs year in year out, and I do believe the above is the likely scenario.  I just hope we can escape these years of mediocrity.  After all, we're all cheering for the same team, and we all want the same end goal.

[Warhippy]

18 minutes ago, HKSR said:

That's very specific.  How many years is that contract?  If $60m over 8 years, that's 7.5m in today's dollars.  

 

On quick glance, Ryan McDonough was signed to a 7 year deal at the age of 30 for 6.75m AAV.  Tampa has won 2 cups since then.

McDonough was/is a stud defenseman who plays on one of the most stacked teams the league has seen since the 1990s/2000s Red Wings.  $6.75 million is not $9+ million and when you're anchoring the top 4 with Hedman in front of you, Stamkos, Point, Kucherov etc you are not THE piece; you are A piece.  Again, we have seen the stats without Miller in the line up.  We have also see Tampa crush their division without McDonough and win cups where he's lost or missed time during the season.

 

McDonough is A piece of the Tampa Puzzle, our team without Miller is drafting top 5.

 

This is not a fair comparison at all.

[JM_]

3 hours ago, aGENT said:

No move is without risk. That is not an argument I've seen anyone make. Moving Miller is less risk.

 

Re-signing Miller at something like $9x8, in a best case scenario, you get something close to a 1ppg player for the duration of that (LARGE) contract roughly at/near it's value.

 

That's also the least likely outcome. 

 

But how can you state that with certainty? how do you know Miller isn't in the same vein as Pavelski, e.g.? Can you show me an analysis of the kinds of players who are effective into their mid-30s, and why Miller is 100% certain to not be one of them? 

 

3 hours ago, aGENT said:

 

Every other outcome of that decision ranges from "meh" to "godawful, Player Name-esque anchor".

 

Guess what happens in the highly unlikely, worst case scenario, where every single piece we get in return for Miller is an absolute bust? Not even a 4th line grinder in the bunch.

 

You still have $9m in cap space and the mountains of opportunity it represents.

 

 

but you've said there will be a lineup of GMs willing to pay him that, are they all idiots? 

 

[Warhippy]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yes just keep ignoring the comparables and pick and choose those that fit your narrative.  Maybe compare Miller to Lucic too.  They're both big and strong.

Now you're being obtuse and acting foolish.

 

Miller is INCREDIBLY comparable to Benn and Seguin based on not only their positions but the games they play and their lead up seasons and length of contracts.

 

You are being intentionally silly about this and that's fine but it doesn't change anything at all.  because if all you can come up with is THIS response to me posting the direct numbers it shows even you know you don't have a credible argument to stand on against it.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Warhippy