JT Miller's Next Contract - Is it gonna be that high?

[Junkyard Dog]

1 minute ago, khay said:

My honest opinion: no.

 

He is not even a top 2 forward on most contending teams.

 

Florida: Huberdeau, Barkov.

Tampa: Kucherov, Point, and Stamkos.

Carolina: Aho. Maybe he is #2 here?

NYR: Zibanejad, Panarin. Is he better than Kreider? I think they are good in their own ways.

Boston: Pasta, Marchand, Bergeron.

Toronto: Marner, Matthews, Tavares.

Pittsburgh: Malkin, Crosby.

Washington: Ovechkin. Backstrom when healthy is probably better and Kuznetsov is arguable.

 

I'm not even going to do the West.

 

I think he's better than a number of those players there when you look at everything Miller brings. 

[khay]

Just now, HKSR said:

Right... so maybe... just maybe, we might be overstating his cost? 

 

I'd be honestly happy to lock him up for say 5 years at $8M AAV. 

8 mil x 5 years? Absolutely. If he signs that deal in the offseason, we should be extremely happy.

 

But he is a UFA and most players like the idea of testing the market except for those that are extremely loyal/the franchise players.

[BCNate]

I'd go 6 years 8 Mill without hesitation.  I don't see any issue with paying him that for 4 years, last two he may fall off, but the cap will be up.  structuring it in a buy out friendly way would be key.  

 

I'd trade Boeser or Horvat before Miller if we need the cap space.

[Nucker 67]

All this talk of Miller making $9 million until he's in his mid-late 30s is giving me LE flashbacks.  I say let the guy go - trade for a King's ransom.  Good luck to him.

 

The future of this team is Petey, Hughes, Horvat, Demko etc.  

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by NUCKER67

[Bure_Pavel]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Right... so maybe... just maybe, we might be overstating his cost? 

 

I'd be honestly happy to lock him up for say 5 years at $8M AAV. 

For 5 years you are likely looking at minimum 9 million, he will get an 8 year deal on the open market.

[khay]

5 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I think he's better than a number of those players there when you look at everything Miller brings. 

Sure. But that was just the Eastern conference.

 

And all of those guys are better than Miller in certain areas like scoring while Miller may be better in other areas.

 

And almost every one of those contenders has a complete player that is better than Miller in almost every way.

 

Florida: Huberdeau, Barkov

Tampa: Point.

Carolina: Aho.

NYR: None? I wouldn't say Zibanejad > Miller. This is why NYR would be a good trade partner.

Boston: Marchand and Bergeron.

Toronto: Marner and Tavares.

Pittsburgh: Malkin and Crosby.

Washington: Ovechkin and Backstrom.

Edited February 1, 2022 by khay

[Bure_Pavel]

2 minutes ago, BCNate said:

I'd go 6 years 8 Mill without hesitation.  I don't see any issue with paying him that for 4 years, last two he may fall off, but the cap will be up.  structuring it in a buy out friendly way would be key.  

 

I'd trade Boeser or Horvat before Miller if we need the cap space.

His agent and him will likely be pushing for an 8 year deal if they are smart, maybe he leaves a lot on the table to stay here not sure he likes us that much. 

[BCNate]

10 minutes ago, khay said:

This.

 

An example of lower tax state benefit is Stamkos. He gets like 8.5 mil. It turned out that earning 8.5 mil in Tampa was like getting 11 mil in Toronto.

 

1. Miller is UFA.

2. Vancouver is not a contender.

3. Vancouver is not a tax favorable city to play in.

4. Miller has shown no indication of wanting to give discount to stay here.

 

All of this equates to a fair deal being upwards of 8 mil.

 

Miller's side wanting 8+ mil is well justified even using internal comparisons. 

 

1. He is better than Petey. Twice the point production while handling more minutes.

2. Petey gets 7.35 mil as an RFA.

3. Miller is a UFA and UFA salary is usually more inflated than RFAs.

 

Miller's demand starts at 9-9.5 mil. 

Miller will not be signing with a contender if he wants a big contract.  No Contender will have the space to get that done while making their team better.  

 

Canucks have been great under BB, as has Miller.  I'd let the next 20 games play out before determining what we are.  First 20 under BB we were a top 10 team.

 

No Vancouver is not tax favorable, but certainly one of the nicest cities to play in.  When money doesn't really matter any more, you can pay more to live somewhere nice.

 

Miller has not alluded to anything contract wise, whether he wants to be here or not.  The fact he isn't discussing his next contract, before it can even really be negotiated is not a big deal.

 

When was the last time a team dealt it's best player and came out of it better?

[BCNate]

3 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

His agent and him will likely be pushing for an 8 year deal if they are smart, maybe he leaves a lot on the table to stay here not sure he likes us that much. 

Keep in mind that the bigger his ask, the smaller the number of teams that can meet that ask.  I think his demands will be reasonable, as we wants to win.  I think he believes he can win here with this group, we have a lot of pieces in place.

[Junkyard Dog]

Just now, khay said:

Sure. But that was just the Eastern conference.

 

And all of those guys are better than Miller in certain areas like scoring while Miller may be better in other areas.

 

But almost every one of those contenders have a complete player that is better than Miller in almost every way.

 

Florida: Huberdeau, Barkov

Tampa: Point.

Carolina: Aho.

NYR: None? I wouldn't say Zibanejad > Miller. This is why NYR would be a good trade partner.

Boston: Marchand and Bergeron.

Toronto: Marner and Tavares.

Pittsburgh: Malkin and Crosby.

Washington: Ovechkin and Backstrom.

Save for Florida, Aho, Crosby, Marchand and OV I would say Miller's current level of play is better than all of those other players.

 

A lot of those guys you mentioned are well past their primes. Miller brings a lot more qualities and his level of importance is greater than most people in the league. Even points alone he produces at the same level, without much help from teammates on a team outside the playoffs. Can't say the same for many players there.

[Bure_Pavel]

29 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Blake Wheeler signed a 5 year deal a couple years ago after back-to-back 91 point campaigns.

 

It came out to $8.25M AAV.  Does JT Miller command more than that?

I believe Wheeler was 32 or 33 when he signed that deal and he had a full NMC for the first three years through the latest expansion. Likely similar AAV but a couple more years due to age.

Edited February 1, 2022 by Bure_Pavel

[HKSR]

Just now, Bure_Pavel said:

I believe Wheeler was 32 or 33 when he signed that deal and he had a full NMC for the first three years through the latest expansion. 

True, but I'd suspect Miller will want a full NMC too... so that's a wash.

 

Wheeler put up back-to-back 91 point campaigns... surely that adds value.  Miller was on a 71pt pace last year, and is about a PPG this year.  Does he command that much more?

[Bure_Pavel]

5 minutes ago, BCNate said:

Keep in mind that the bigger his ask, the smaller the number of teams that can meet that ask.  I think his demands will be reasonable, as we wants to win.  I think he believes he can win here with this group, we have a lot of pieces in place.

Sean couturier type contract is reasonable for him 8 years X 7.75 Million, very comparable.

[Nucker 67]

If they sign Miller to a huge contract for 5+ years, how does this affect re-signing Horvat, Podkolzin and Hoglander in the coming years?  

[Baratheon]

Man so many people willing to go 8x6.  Yikes.  The guy is gonna be almost the exact same age as Loui Player Name when he signed with us.  We are so confident that Miller will maintain his current level of play for the next seven years?  

*Laughs uncomfortably* I guess guys....

[Alflives]

Will not be with us, so we don't care.  In fact, considering it will be with another team, we should want him to get overpaid.  

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, NUCKER67 said:

If they sign Miller to a huge contract for 5+ years, how does this affect re-signing Horvat, Podkolzin and Hoglander in the coming years?  

We could sign him for $8.5M and be fine.  If we need to upgrade our D, we would need to move on from Poolman and Pearson to free up the cap to do so, but it can be done.

 

[Bure_Pavel]

1 minute ago, NUCKER67 said:

If they sign Miller to a huge contract for 5+ years, how does this affect re-signing Horvat, Podkolzin and Hoglander in the coming years?  

Definitely would have an effect, as it sets the new salary ceiling and Horvat would use expect something in the same ballpark just less. I dont see how they afford Miller and Bo unless Boeser and one of OEL/Myers is moved. 

[Junkyard Dog]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

True, but I'd suspect Miller will want a full NMC too... so that's a wash.

 

Wheeler put up back-to-back 91 point campaigns... surely that adds value.  Miller was on a 71pt pace last year, and is about a PPG this year.  Does he command that much more?

Wheeler was also the captain and played his career there for the most part(on his 12th year with the organization). Jets already being a competitive team(making the conference finals and 1st round the 2 years prior to extending) as it is and all things considered you could argue he took a paycut.

[HKSR]

Just now, Junkyard Dog said:

Wheeler was also the captain and played his career there for the most part(on his 12th year with the organization). Jets already being a competitive team(making the conference finals and 1st round the 2 years prior to extending) as it is and all things considered you could argue he took a paycut.

Maybe, but it was also his last big contract of his career... so there's that.