An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Keep dreaming.  When was the last time a team had an entire decade to compete for a Cup?  When was the last time Vancouver even competed for a Cup?  You think by trading Miller for Schneider, Kravtsov and a 1st it is going to open our window to win a Cup by another 6 years? 

 

I'd rather take my chances and try and win a Cup in the next 4 years by keeping one of the best players in the NHL versus trading him for picks and prospects that may not even pan out.  Like I said the salary cap will work itself out.  Dallas just resigned a 37 year old Pavelski to a $6 million extension.  He will be 38 next year.  If Dallas can sign a 38 year old to a $6 million deal why can't we be paying Miller $8-9 million when he's 34?

Boston, PIT, WSH and it's looking like TB could be added to the list.   It is possible ... get what your saying though ... for the Canucks it was 2000-2014 minus a couple down years that's it.   Only SJ and Detroit won as many games as we did during that span.    Get what your saying and actually think we can have both Miller and a long window ... the two aren't  mutually exclusive. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by IBatch

[stawns]

I hope he does well into his late 30's with whichever American team.he chooses to sign with

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, stawns said:

I hope he does well into his late 30's with whichever American team.he chooses to sign with

Well played!   I'd say with whatever US team it is as long as it isn't in ANA, Vegas or LA ...  SJ sure - they don't know how to rebuild ... go there please! 

 

Edit:  Have zero issue with re-signing Miller either as long as it's reasonable.   Think six years is ok.   Same with Horvat.    Same with Brock.   Same with EP when he's up.   Just make the cap hit reasonable is all i'd ask.   Fair is reasonable. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by IBatch

[Josepho]

Miller has been good enough to the extent where I think he could sustain respectable production into his mid 30s.

 

The much bigger question IMO is if he wants to stay here.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Josepho said:

Miller has been good enough to the extent where I think he could sustain respectable production into his mid 30s.

 

The much bigger question IMO is if he wants to stay here.

Like Bruce said he's the best actor in the world if he doesn't want too.    We should lay off as fans and the media should too.   He's exactly what i like to see from a center on my team.   Appreciate him while he is here, and if he does get re-signed support him if he does.   Nice to be the top dog - and Miller knows if he goes somewhere else that's for sure in doubt unless he goes full on money and ends up in ARI or something.   And also knows he won't be raising a cup or have a chance to do that if he goes there.   Miller has reasons to stay that support Miller.   

Edited March 12, 2022 by IBatch

[MystifyNCrucify]

On 3/10/2022 at 11:36 PM, IBatch said:

Seems pretty clear to me, unless your a rare breed of HHOF caliber material your production goes down significantly.  That is unless you haven't already retired.  Also have to include games played, pretty sure it's easy to say that a lot of cap sitting on the sidelines doesn't help a team (Getzlaf over the years) ... gets tougher and tougher for most guys. Based on our clubs history - the guys who've scored 88 or more points, whom of them went on to have stellar Swan Song years where they consistentally did it past say 33?  Even if they moved on to another team .... the only ones that really can, often end up in the HHOF. 

 

Edit: BTW the only ones that played for us at some point were Messier and Sundin.   Messier hit a wall well when he came to Vancouver. 

The wall didnt hit messier near hard enough as far as im concerned, especially when the millions of dollars soaked with canuck fans tears were there to provide a nice soft landing. 

[Timråfan]

I haven"t countrd so I might be out of my depth now.

How many points correlate with Hughes?

Or should I say, came after Hughes took the puck in OZ... 

[cdgraham]

On 3/11/2022 at 9:47 PM, Junkyard Dog said:

Each of his last 3 years have been different. Already pointed that out.

You missed the point. Just look at ppg over that sample size, and see he has been very consistent. It's not a small sample size either. 

[Rindiculous]

11 minutes ago, cdgraham said:

You missed the point. Just look at ppg over that sample size, and see he has been very consistent. It's not a small sample size either. 

I'm just gonna look at the sample size of the last 13 games and believe Miller is a 170 point player per season 

[Junkyard Dog]

17 minutes ago, cdgraham said:

You missed the point. Just look at ppg over that sample size, and see he has been very consistent. It's not a small sample size either. 

You missed my point of each year being different. Not overall consistent of the entire sample size. It contradicts the sample size.

 

It presents risk when signing him based off this most recent season when he's playing like 10M forward when he hasn't been a 10M dollar forward each of his seasons here. Puts management in a tough boat when it comes to his next contract. 

[wai_lai416]

On 3/10/2022 at 4:40 PM, HKSR said:

Did you even look?  There's 13 forwards 7 defencemen and 2 goalies.  The numbers don't lie.  Hamonic isn't traded.  He walks as UFA.  Dickinson and Poolman are the only 2 that need to be traded.  To ice a lineup like this in 2 years, sweeteners would be worth it:

 

Hogs-Petey-Podz

Pearson-Miller-Boeser

Garland-Bo-Motte

Highmore-Lamikko-Lockwood

13F

 

Hughes-Top4RHD

OEL-Myers

Rathbone-Schenn

Burroughs

 

Demko

Backup

 

What issue do we have with this lineup??

Offense? Check.

Defence? Top 4 is solid. 

Goaltending? Elite.

lol... so keep everything the same.. replace JD with lockwood and replace harmonic with a top 4rhd will solve all the problems on this team and turn this into a contender?? really??

[cdgraham]

10 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

You missed my point of each year being different. Not overall consistent of the entire sample size. It contradicts the sample size.

 

It presents risk when signing him based off this most recent season when he's playing like 10M forward when he hasn't been a 10M dollar forward each of his seasons here. Puts management in a tough boat when it comes to his next contract. 

It's a stupid point. Makes no sense. Of course each year is different the overall picture has been the same the same though and that's consistent. Pretty sure no one would disagree that its better to look over 3 years of play then 1 season and his past 3 seasons have been great. It's almost 200 games he has played for us and look at his PPG. It's very good. 

 

That being said I'm not advocating to sign him to a 10 million contract I've never said that. That would be using 1 season as a barometer which I would agree is dumb that's what I'm saying. If we look at his PPG over 3 seasons we get a better idea of his worth. 9 million max I say is his worth. 9.5 maybe depending on the term. (Shorter term of course) 

[cdgraham]

10 hours ago, Rindiculous said:

I'm just gonna look at the sample size of the last 13 games and believe Miller is a 170 point player per season 

If that's what you are gathering I'm thinking from my post, where I literally said the opposite (look at his overall 170 games or so with us) not sure what to say to you 

[Junkyard Dog]

17 minutes ago, cdgraham said:

It's a stupid point. Makes no sense. Of course each year is different the overall picture has been the same the same though and that's consistent. Pretty sure no one would disagree that its better to look over 3 years of play then 1 season and his past 3 seasons have been great. It's almost 200 games he has played for us and look at his PPG. It's very good. 

 

That being said I'm not advocating to sign him to a 10 million contract I've never said that. That would be using 1 season as a barometer which I would agree is dumb that's what I'm saying. If we look at his PPG over 3 seasons we get a better idea of his worth. 9 million max I say is his worth. 9.5 maybe depending on the term. (Shorter term of course) 

The only stupid thing is the fact you’re overlooking the fact that this year is his best year. He’s on a 100 point pace where last year he wasn’t even a ppg or our best forward. 
 

The entire point going over your head is the fact that we are gonna sign him based off this season. If this is his best year than it presents risk and concern. 
 

It completely contradicts the overall picture. The sample size is moot. He’s a UFA not a RFA he has all the leverage. How he’s playing now matters a whole lot more than how he has played the 2 years prior when it comes to his next contract if we’re re-signing him this off-season. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Junkyard Dog

[Rindiculous]

3 hours ago, cdgraham said:

If that's what you are gathering I'm thinking from my post, where I literally said the opposite (look at his overall 170 games or so with us) not sure what to say to you 

It's called sarcasm.  I agree.  He can't get as much as a perennial PPG guy.  Although I'm looking at a guy like Kaprizov who got a massive payday for only 1 year of experience.

[cdgraham]

On 3/16/2022 at 10:27 AM, Junkyard Dog said:

The only stupid thing is the fact you’re overlooking the fact that this year is his best year. He’s on a 100 point pace where last year he wasn’t even a ppg or our best forward. 
 

The entire point going over your head is the fact that we are gonna sign him based off this season. If this is his best year than it presents risk and concern. 
 

It completely contradicts the overall picture. The sample size is moot. He’s a UFA not a RFA he has all the leverage. How he’s playing now matters a whole lot more than how he has played the 2 years prior when it comes to his next contract if we’re re-signing him this off-season. 

I'm not overlooking that, that's precisely why I'm saying use a larger sample size. What are you talking about. 

[cdgraham]

On 3/16/2022 at 1:58 PM, Rindiculous said:

It's called sarcasm.  I agree.  He can't get as much as a perennial PPG guy.  Although I'm looking at a guy like Kaprizov who got a massive payday for only 1 year of experience.

Ya fair enough, and I am definitely not advocating we pay him like a 100 point do it all 1st line center. I'm saying he should get paid more like a 80 point 1st line do it all center. 

[Junkyard Dog]

44 minutes ago, cdgraham said:

I'm not overlooking that, that's precisely why I'm saying use a larger sample size. What are you talking about. 

He's a UFA he's gonna get paid based off this year if we sign him this off-season. The 2 years prior to this one mean squat in comparison to this year, he's a UFA and has all the leverage  What you're trying to argue is a moot point.

 

This is essentially a contract year for him. Even check the tweet out his agent made.

 

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/canucks-hockey/jt-millers-agent-tweeting-show-me-the-money-might-be-a-bad-sign-5171857

Edited March 18, 2022 by Junkyard Dog

[cdgraham]

13 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

He's a UFA he's gonna get paid based off this year if we sign him this off-season. The 2 years prior to this one mean squat in comparison to this year, he's a UFA and has all the leverage  What you're trying to argue is a moot point.

 

This is essentially a contract year for him. Even check the tweet out his agent made.

 

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/canucks-hockey/jt-millers-agent-tweeting-show-me-the-money-might-be-a-bad-sign-5171857

Guess we will see, he still has one year left. If he repeats this year next then he deserves it and maybe we can't afford him. If he reverts back to the previous 2 years or somewhere in between, he's still really good and should get paid probably in the 8 - 9 million range. Depending on what his demands are in that scenario would be good to resign him

Edited March 18, 2022 by cdgraham

[Alflives]

Just now, cdgraham said:

Guess we will see, he still has one year left. If he repeats this year next then he deserves it and maybe we can't afford him. If he reverts back to the previous 2 years or somewhere in between, he's still really good and should get paid probably in the 8 - 9 million range. Depending on what his depends are in that scenario would be good to resign him

In summer 2023 no team will pay JT more than 64 million.  He'd be beyond stupid to not take an 8.5 x 8 contract offer from us this summer.  Huge gamble for him that would cost him 10s of millions.