Some Fresh Numbers to Look At Post-TDL

[Canucks Curse]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Since coach Boudreau has taken over, how has this team done?  They've played nearly half a season under Boudreau now, so we know what this team is.

and I think they are a playoff team under BB, just not a cup contender. They are what like 23-10-5 or something since BB joined and they have lost some real stinkers - DET, BUF, NJD, NYI, bowsers, but also won some big games, WSH, COL, TORx2 

they need to build better D, I like early returns on Dermott, allows Schenn and OEL to play a bit less, I agree with the moving out myers and Pearson.

"Low ball" Brock and see what happens in offseason, like 6x whatever term he wants. You think he will sit out over 5.98mill x 8 yrs to try and get something better? no one will pay him 7.5/yrx8 yrs, no one, not Ottawa, no NYI, not buffalo etc. Tbh I see him signing here long term for a reasonable cap hit.

 

This is his worst year so far statistically and with the eye test, Canucks need cap, so him sitting out does not help him that much, JR has seen it all and demands respect from players and agents more than anyone we have had. 

 

[Coconuts]

13 minutes ago, HKSR said:

That's a lot of holes to fill lol.

 

I just really worry that this Canucks team is gonna play their hearts out (and maybe just fall short), but they will at least see that they can play really good hockey.  They're not idiots.  If we can see that the first 1/4 season was heavily impacted by Green, I'm sure they can see it too, and they know they're a much better team than that now.

 

So again, they come close to becoming a solid playoff team, then we rip them apart again.  This time moving on from Miller, Myers, Motte, and maybe Garland?  Last time Toffoli, Tanev, Edler, and Marky.  We can't keep doing that.

It is, but I'm not keen on signing Myers til he's 36. I also question how effective he'll still be. I'd rather find someone younger, whether that's internally, via trade, or free agency. I'm not gonna make this a Miller thread, we've had those conversations. 

 

Manson I'm more flexible on, but I think playing for Colorado will raise his stock. As for Lindholm, he extended right away whereas I actually see Manson getting to UFA because I don't think Colorado can afford him. I think that'll also bump up his price. 

 

If it came down to it I'd take Manson over Myers though. 

[Alflives]

Great thread @HKSR.

Lots of fun!  

[Warhippy]

33 minutes ago, HKSR said:

So trade Miller and Horvat then?

who is going to take a 30+ Horvat at nearly $7 million or a 33+ Miller at $9 million?

 

That's the issue with contracts like that.  Someone needs to be willing to eat 4-5 years at those cap hits if for whatever reason they don't work out.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Warhippy

[Warhippy]

21 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I'm assuming Petey progresses in his development and becomes that PPG forward we expect he SHOULD become.  That's a few years down the road, so not outside the realm of probability.

 

Not sure what you think Horvat is worth right now? 

 

Manson is a Top 4 RHD... I'm pretty sure $5M AAV is the going rate for one.  You won't get one for $4M AAV, maybe a LHD.

Pettersson will not be worth $9 million unless he starts winning board battles and becoming vastly more defensively responsible.  That wrist injury seems to be a consistent issue and for a person who needs that hand to make some of those passes and that wrist shot it's a scary thing to bank on 

 

Horvat for me is a $6 million middle 6 centre.  He's a great 2b, a suitable 2a; any team using him as a 1b or 1a is failing.  At $6.75 that's a no from me especially with only 1 single 60 point season under him.

 

Manson is not even a 20 point player, and while I am an advocate for the blue line being more defensively responsible than they are offensively, that is a scary amount to put towards an RHD who is still questionable defensively while not contributing offensively.

 

Again, decent line up; just feel like there would be a ton of regret within 2-3 seasons.

[JM_]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Re-signings

Miller at $9M AAV

Boeser at $6.25M AAV

Horvat at $6.75M AAV

Petey eventually extended at $9M AAV

Raises for Hogs and Podz

 

Trades

Dickinson and Poolman gone with sweeteners

 

UFA Signings

Josh Manson @ $5M AAV

3rd Line Winger @ $1.5M to $2M AAV

 

 

Podkolzin-Petey-Boeser

Garland-Miller-Hoglander

Pearson-Bo-3W

Highmore-Lamikko-Lockwood

13F

 

Hughes-Schenn

OEL-Manson

Dermott-Myers

7D

 

I don't think many teams want to face that lineup in the 1st round.

 

To me that is similar to what LA fielded on their cup runs

 

Not sure if JR/PA can pull that off but the potential for a lineup like that is why I don't want to see this core group blown up.

 

[HKSR]

59 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

It is, but I'm not keen on signing Myers til he's 36. I also question how effective he'll still be. I'd rather find someone younger, whether that's internally, via trade, or free agency. I'm not gonna make this a Miller thread, we've had those conversations. 

 

Manson I'm more flexible on, but I think playing for Colorado will raise his stock. As for Lindholm, he extended right away whereas I actually see Manson getting to UFA because I don't think Colorado can afford him. I think that'll also bump up his price. 

 

If it came down to it I'd take Manson over Myers though. 

Oh my spreadsheet probably isn't clear.  I'm not saying re-sign Myers.  I'm saying replacing him with a Top 4 RHD when his contract ends.

[HKSR]

57 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Great thread @HKSR.

Lots of fun!  

Need something to do now that TDL is over

[HKSR]

49 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

who is going to take a 30+ Horvat at nearly $7 million or a 33+ Miller at $9 million?

 

That's the issue with contracts like that.  Someone needs to be willing to eat 4-5 years at those cap hits if for whatever reason they don't work out.

I think the poster was saying trade Miller AND Horvat now...

[HKSR]

22 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I don't think many teams want to face that lineup in the 1st round.

 

To me that is similar to what LA fielded on their cup runs

 

Not sure if JR/PA can pull that off but the potential for a lineup like that is why I don't want to see this core group blown up.

 

That's what I feel too.  There's way too much potential here.  All they need to find is consistency.

[HKSR]

52 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Pettersson will not be worth $9 million unless he starts winning board battles and becoming vastly more defensively responsible.  That wrist injury seems to be a consistent issue and for a person who needs that hand to make some of those passes and that wrist shot it's a scary thing to bank on 

 

Horvat for me is a $6 million middle 6 centre.  He's a great 2b, a suitable 2a; any team using him as a 1b or 1a is failing.  At $6.75 that's a no from me especially with only 1 single 60 point season under him.

 

Manson is not even a 20 point player, and while I am an advocate for the blue line being more defensively responsible than they are offensively, that is a scary amount to put towards an RHD who is still questionable defensively while not contributing offensively.

 

Again, decent line up; just feel like there would be a ton of regret within 2-3 seasons.

I think Petey will get there.  He's got way too high hockey IQ not to.  Even defensively, we saw last night his defensive awareness is through the roof.  He's not gonna be a physical force, ever... but neither was Datsyuk, and I think Petey will top out to be a Datsyuk-like player.

 

You may be right with Horvat.  Looking at comparables, he might be in the lower end of $6M rather than the higher end. 

 

Top 4 RHD always command a premium.  They're really hard to acquire.  I'd say $5M is on the low end of a Top 4 RHD, and Manson is on the lower end of top 4 RHD as well.  If you find a bonafide top flight Top 4 RHD, he'll likely be $6M+.  For example, Klingberg will likely be $7M+.

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by HKSR

[Coconuts]

15 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Oh my spreadsheet probably isn't clear.  I'm not saying re-sign Myers.  I'm saying replacing him with a Top 4 RHD when his contract ends.

Ahh yeah, it wasn't quite clear. I saw the top 4D bit but assumed it was tied to Myers. 

 

I like Myers but he's not a player I'd be looking to extend. I'd rather have someone younger in a bottom pair role, and that's the role I imagine he'll play at 34 onwards unless he really surprises. 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Coconuts said:

Ahh yeah, it wasn't quite clear. I saw the top 4D bit but assumed it was tied to Myers. 

 

I like Myers but he's not a player I'd be looking to extend. I'd rather have someone younger in a bottom pair role, and that's the role I imagine he'll play at 34 onwards unless he really surprises. 

Yeah, same with Schenn.  It's a placeholder for someone on a similar cap hit in the future. 

 

Agreed.  Hopefully we would have developed one internally by then (ie. Woo).

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Sam Reinhart who I'd say is a much more complete player and a centre as well just signed a $6.5M AAV deal for 3 years at a similar age as Boeser.  So I can't see how Boeser would get more than that.  He probably should get a bit less, so I landed at $6.25M.

Yep.  Aside from his tax sheltered current team.   What is think is fair and rational for both sides is something in the 25-27 million 4/5 year contract.  

[Goal:thecup]

No UFAs please: too expensive, too much term, they want no move/trade clauses, and skew the payroll structure where better teammates are being paid less than them.

And we improve the D by moving players like Garland+ for high quality, age relative RHD.

Podz is better than Hogz and better than Gar imo anyway.

If Boesser continues to play like last night, he can get a good contract; if he doesn't, we should lo ball him to sign and trade him.

We should also be trying to get young guys who have size and talent but aren't quite there yet.

So, for me, there are a number of moveable assets on the wings.

And, I would like to see Bo and Mills work on faceoffs with Podz; he's already half an inch of the ice all the time and is strong with great balance and good wrists.

[Baggins]

2 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

I would look at something like that.

 

As good as Garland is I think he is replaceable. 

I honestly don't understand why anybody would keep Boeser over Garland. Garland is less expensive for four more years and is the better overall player.

[Coconuts]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah, same with Schenn.  It's a placeholder for someone on a similar cap hit in the future. 

 

Agreed.  Hopefully we would have developed one internally by then (ie. Woo).

That's why I was hoping we'd move Schenn, but he's fine as a short term placeholder. There's nothing wrong with having stopgaps, they serve a purpose, but falling in love with stopgaps can be troublesome. 

 

We desperately need to start utilizing, drafting, and developing internal options. If we can't get more hits in the other rounds we'll be a team that's more likely to overpay for players in general. Development has definitely been an issue, most of our top players are players who didn't even get a cup of coffee in the AHL, they skipped right over it. 

[HKSR]

7 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

That's why I was hoping we'd move Schenn, but he's fine as a short term placeholder. There's nothing wrong with having stopgaps, they serve a purpose, but falling in love with stopgaps can be troublesome. 

 

We desperately need to start utilizing, drafting, and developing internal options. If we can't get more hits in the other rounds we'll be a team that's more likely to overpay for players in general. Development has definitely been an issue, most of our top players are players who didn't even get a cup of coffee in the AHL, they skipped right over it. 

They need to take their time with Klimovich.  So much raw talent... if they do it properly, he'll probably be a 25 to 30 goal scorer.

 

Rathbone and Lockwood are probably ready for a taste of the NHL now.  Rathbone probably needs some sheltering though.

 

Woo and Karlsson are interesting.  Hard to get much info on defensive defencemen like Woo.  Hopefully he's developing well down there.

 

We need a 2nd round pick this year.  We still don't have one.  We only have our 1st.

 

I think in general, we need to let our prospects marinate until they can't absorb anymore lol

[Coconuts]

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

They need to take their time with Klimovich.  So much raw talent... if they do it properly, he'll probably be a 25 to 30 goal scorer.

 

Rathbone and Lockwood are probably ready for a taste of the NHL now.  Rathbone probably needs some sheltering though.

 

Woo and Karlsson are interesting.  Hard to get much info on defensive defencemen like Woo.  Hopefully he's developing well down there.

 

We need a 2nd round pick this year.  We still don't have one.  We only have our 1st.

 

I think in general, we need to let our prospects marinate until they can't absorb anymore lol

Def agree on Klimovich. The reality is that most prospects aren't going to make the jump sooner than later, I keep seeing people penciling him into the lineup within a year or two and I just shake my head. We've been spoiled by Boeser, Pettersson, Hughes, and even Podkolzin. Players jumping right into the league isn't the norm. We really need to let our players stew, but we also need to be willing to move players out if they show they can make it. 

 

The Gadjovich loss is overrated imo, but that doesn't change the fact that we put a roadblock in front of him in Chiasson. We've gotta stop doing that. Obviouslt there's a fine line when it comes to players on the cusp, but at some point you've got to let your prospects make it and fail a bit. Most players aren't going to be polished as first or second year players, there's got to be a degree of allowance for them making mistakes in order to learn. 

 

I think Lockwood makes it, I think he should. Rathbone too, but I think he'll need sheltering as well. Woo taking a bit longer is fine, but he'll need a chance at some point. Karlsson is hard to peg, but he's a good prospect. 

 

We need to start holding on to our picks more, I hope we find a way to acquire one or two at the draft or leading up to it. Top teams build through the draft, we can't keep moving out first and second round picks every year. 

[HKSR]

Just now, Coconuts said:

Def agree on Klimovich. The reality is that most prospects aren't going to make the jump sooner than later, I keep seeing people penciling him into the lineup within a year or two and I just shake my head. We've been spoiled by Boeser, Pettersson, Hughes, and even Podkolzin. Players jumping right into the league isn't the norm. We really need to let our players stew, but we also need to be willing to move players out if they show they can make it. 

 

The Gadjovich loss is overrated imo, but that doesn't change the fact that we put a roadblock in front of him in Chiasson. We've gotta stop doing that. Obviouslt there's a fine line when it comes to players on the cusp, but at some point you've got to let your prospects make it and fail a bit. Most players aren't going to be polished as first or second year players, there's got to be a degree of allowance for them making mistakes in order to learn. 

 

I think Lockwood makes it, I think he should. Rathbone too, but I think he'll need sheltering as well. Woo taking a bit longer is fine, but he'll need a chance at some point. Karlsson is hard to peg, but he's a good prospect. 

 

We need to start holding on to our picks more, I hope we find a way to acquire one or two at the draft or leading up to it. Top teams build through the draft, we can't keep moving out first and second round picks every year. 

I think you and I are on the same page.  Now we just need to convince JR/PA