Looking 8 years into Miller's new contract - with numbers (of course)!

[Highstickin]

42 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I don't have an issue moving Brock.  Awesome person, and I like him a lot, but I wouldn't mind if we traded him for assets then signed someone like Nichuskin or Mikheyev.  Wingers are just so much easier to replace.

The 6.25 per for Brock can certainly be debated but I don't think he is as easy to replace as you make it seem. There are only 23 RW in the NHL right now with 20 goals on the season (to this point) one of which is Brock. We all wish Brock was faster, won more board battles, etc., etc. but at the end of the day he is a proven 20 goal guy. 

 

You mention going after Nichuskin and I see this as rehashing the old management plan. Pick a guy that just put up a big year on an expiring contract and hope he can keep it up. I'm guessing Nuke is going to want a heavy raise (maybe even in the 4.5-5M range) based on the year he has had and I wouldn't want to take that gamble on a guy that previously had a career best 13 goals and 27 points. When we add in that Nuke is 2 yrs older than Brock, I think I will stick with the guy we know.

 

As for Mikheyev, his story is much like Nuke. These two guys play on the two of the most offensive teams in the league and have not put up that much more production than Brock. I will agree that Mikhevey should come in much cheaper. I can see him getting a bump in pay but not to the extent I see Nuke or Brock. 

 

If you look at the list of RW with more goals than Brock this year and them look at their salaries, I don't know that 6M per is out of line. 

[DSVII]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

Assuming the cap goes up by $1M per year for the next 3 years, then a very conservative $2M per year after that (after escrow taken care of in 2024-25)...

 

$8.5M x 8 for Miller

$5M AAV for a Top 4 RHD this coming UFA season

$6.25M AAV for Boeser

$7M AAV for Horvat

$9M AAV for Petey

 

and so on, and so on... you can figure out the rest...

 

Trade Dickinson and Poolman.  Sweetener or retain if we have to.  It won't break the bank.

Still need to add either 1 or 2 forwards each year to play bottom 6 -- Nick Paul anybody? 

 

Bottomline is that we can afford to give Miller his big pay day, upgrade our defence, upgrade our 3rd line, and remain competitive for years.  If his contract becomes an anchor in year 6 to 8 of his deal, it'll be the only one cuz OEL's will be gone by then.  So get the guy signed this off season! 

 

Let the debate begin!  And... GO!

 

I'm hoping Brock takes the number suggested here!

 

Also, not sure we will find a market for Dickinson and Poolman. The cap is only going up 1 mil and a lot of teams will be cap strapped. The Senators was a weird case where the assistant coach knew Hamonic and lobbied for him even if he wasn't worth the cap hit, but here's hoping we can find a way to move them without paying assets.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by DSVII

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, Highstickin said:

The 6.25 per for Brock can certainly be debated but I don't think he is as easy to replace as you make it seem. There are only 23 RW in the NHL right now with 20 goals on the season (to this point) one of which is Brock. We all wish Brock was faster, won more board battles, etc., etc. but at the end of the day he is a proven 20 goal guy. 

 

You mention going after Nichuskin and I see this as rehashing the old management plan. Pick a guy that just put up a big year on an expiring contract and hope he can keep it up. I'm guessing Nuke is going to want a heavy raise (maybe even in the 4.5-5M range) based on the year he has had and I wouldn't want to take that gamble on a guy that previously had a career best 13 goals and 27 points. When we add in that Nuke is 2 yrs older than Brock, I think I will stick with the guy we know.

 

As for Mikheyev, his story is much like Nuke. These two guys play on the two of the most offensive teams in the league and have not put up that much more production than Brock. I will agree that Mikhevey should come in much cheaper. I can see him getting a bump in pay but not to the extent I see Nuke or Brock. 

 

If you look at the list of RW with more goals than Brock this year and them look at their salaries, I don't know that 6M per is out of line. 

Well, as you can see in my OP, I kept Brock cuz I like him... but if we HAVE to move someone, Brock is the guy I'd move if his contract is north of $6M+.

 

The way I see it, if Nuke or Mikheyev can pot 15 goals a season, but bring speed to the lineup, while being somewhere between $3.5M to $5M, I see it as a good trade off.  That $1.5 to $2M in cap space savings could mean a substantial difference elsewhere in the lineup (ie. 3rd line) that could help make up that 5 or 10 goal difference.

 

Miller on the other hand brings WAY too much to try and replace everything.  Look at him last night.  When he wants, he can play a really sound and responsible 2-way game. 

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by HKSR

[Highstickin]

26 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Well, as you can see in my OP, I kept Brock cuz I like him... but if we HAVE to move someone, Brock is the guy I'd move if his contract is north of $6M+.

 

The way I see it, if Nuke or Mikheyev can pot 15 goals a season, but bring speed to the lineup, while being somewhere between $3.5M to $5M, I see it as a good trade off.  That $1.5 to $2M in cap space savings could mean a substantial difference elsewhere in the lineup (ie. 3rd line) that could help make up that 5 or 10 goal difference.

 

Miller on the other hand brings WAY too much to try and replace everything.  Look at him last night.  When he wants, he can play a really sound and responsible 2-way game. 

 

I agree that replacing Miller is not something I really want to do either. He brings more than just point production for this team. 

 

I would be concerned with thining the scoring from the wings too much if we are simply hoping out top line wingers can bring 15 goals a season. If we move Brock out who will play top line wing minutes and produce goals? Garland is a good player but only has one 20 goal season, Podz I'm sure will get there but no need to put that kind of pressure on his game yet. That leaves the two players you mentioned and I don't know that a contending team can only hope of 15 goals from a top line winger. 

 

We witnessed at the start of this season what happens when Petey is not scoring, there isn't much support to pick up the slack. I don't know if we can expect 30 goals from Bo every year so I would be nervous about trading a scorer like Brock for third line depth. 

[BPA]

Dickinson at $2.65M might be worth keeping if he can get back to the 20pt range.  Maybe he can get 30+ pts if paired with the right linemates (like EP and Boeser last night).

 

Poolman at his cap hit of $2.5M is a bit too much for what he brings.  Maybe he’s kept on but I think Burroughs has leaped frogged him on the roster.  Should be traded.

 

Meyers was good last night.  But for $6M, we need more out of him.  Between him and OEL, Meyers is easier to trade.

 

Boeser is pretty much a 20+ goal scorer.  Maybe gets to 30g one day.  Seems to be injury prone and is good for 60-ish games.  Hope he is willing to sign $5.5-6.0M x 8yrs.  Anything more, should consider to be trade bait.

Garland or Hoglander.  Both are on the small side but have great motors and work ethic.  Garland is 26yrs and makes $4.95M with 40+pts.  Hogz is 21yrs on ELC and has 18pts.  Last year he got 27pts.  One small guy on a team is enough (imo).  If Hogz can project to improve, then maybe trading Garland can create more cap space.

 

Should be an interesting off-season.

 

[Chris12345]

4 hours ago, HKSR said:

Assuming the cap goes up by $1M per year for the next 3 years, then a very conservative $2M per year after that (after escrow taken care of in 2024-25)...

 

$8.5M x 8 for Miller

$5M AAV for a Top 4 RHD this coming UFA season

$6.25M AAV for Boeser

$7M AAV for Horvat

$9M AAV for Petey

 

and so on, and so on... you can figure out the rest...

 

Trade Dickinson and Poolman.  Sweetener or retain if we have to.  It won't break the bank.

Still need to add either 1 or 2 forwards each year to play bottom 6 -- Nick Paul anybody? 

 

Bottomline is that we can afford to give Miller his big pay day, upgrade our defence, upgrade our 3rd line, and remain competitive for years.  If his contract becomes an anchor in year 6 to 8 of his deal, it'll be the only one cuz OEL's will be gone by then.  So get the guy signed this off season! 

 

Let the debate begin!  And... GO!

 

Interesting that Loungo's penalty comes off the books and yet there is still $3 m for a phantom goalie or 2.

[Ballisticsports.]

I think when Miller is awarded a contract by Any team, you will see his salary numbers decline after 3 years into the contract, With both sides knowing it's logical to not stay at ones peak and his yearly salary while decline some as well

Edited April 20, 2022 by ba;;isticsports

[Elias Pettersson]

5 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Omicron Ba.2 shuts down in person games again.

 

Cap goes flat.

 

Teams retroactively punished.

 

What then?

 

Maybes and what ifs are great but realistically we'd be spending to the cap again with zero wiggle room.  We need a cushion for once and that contract still scares me after year 4

 

Well if COVID is still around in 6 years then maybe JR, if he's still around, can pull a San Jose and get Miller's contract terminated because of Miller breaking COVID restrictions...

[wai_lai416]

5 hours ago, kloubek said:

I know if Miller hit UFA that teams would be all over trying to sign him and would most likely overpay as is usually the case for sought after UFAs. But how much would they REALLY be willing to spend on a guy who will then be on the wrong side of 30? 8 years will make him damn near 40 years old by the time his contract runs out, and with his playing style I'm honestly not sure if he will last that long - at least, not as an effective player.

I think that given his recent production that there is little denying that he's worth that kind of money NOW, but if we were willing to commit long-term, maybe he would return the favor with a team-friendly cap hit and help management build a contender. It isn't like ownership would be *saving* money as they will spend to the cap regardless, so it really is for the good of the team. Horvat too. Then a couple of years later, maybe Petey does the same. 

 

With all that said, I feel the OP is pretty accurate with the projected salary figures.

so we want to sign a guy wrong side of 30 to 8 years contract but no one in the league would be willing to spend on a guy wrong side of 30 on a 7 year contract.. baffling no wonder players 29-30 love to sign in vancouver coz they'll offer the most terms/money of any team that's why we were having so much cap troubles before.

[Elias Pettersson]

4 hours ago, Fanuck said:

I'm just curious who exactly is the UFA target that will fill the top 4 RHD that will sign for $5milAAV that isn't on the very wrong side of 30+ years old? 

 

I'm not trying to be critical, I just don't have a clue who this could be?

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2023/caphit/all/defense/all/desc/right?signing-status=ufa

Josh Manson would be a great partner for Hughes.  You can move Schenn to 3rd pairing with Rathbone and have Dermott and Burroughs as your 7/8 guys...

 

Hughes        Manson

OEL              Myers

Rathbone     Schenn

Dermott       Burroughs

 

Trade Poolman as part of a package with Boeser to get picks and prospects.  With that defence we wouldn't need anyone to come in immediately from a Boeser trade, we could trade him for a Justin Barron type guy as well as a 1st round pick.

 

If we are signing Miller to a long term deal then we need to get some cheap wingers to fill the gap and trade Boeser and maybe even Garland if we need more cap room.  Kuzmenko and Deslauriers would be two UFA's that I would target right away, they wouldn't cost very much.  Nichushkin would be another.  Lawson Crouse would be a dream, but his cost would be high.

[Putgolzin]

12 hours ago, ba;;isticsports said:

I think if Miller is awarded a contract by Any team, you will see numbers recline for years after 3 into the contract, With both sides knowing it's logical to not stay at ones peak

That is fully logical.

I was interested though when someone mentioned Pavelski a few nights back when they were in town - obviously he is an exception rather than a rule, but I had no idea he was so old and still so incredibly productive.

[kloubek]

13 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

so we want to sign a guy wrong side of 30 to 8 years contract but no one in the league would be willing to spend on a guy wrong side of 30 on a 7 year contract.. baffling no wonder players 29-30 love to sign in vancouver coz they'll offer the most terms/money of any team that's why we were having so much cap troubles before.

Most of my post was about why his age vs a long contract is something to consider, and how maybe we get a bit of a deal because of it.

But let's face it - we wouldn't even be talking about playoffs if it wasn't for Miller carrying this team - especially for the first few months. He has become an outstanding player for us, and I think this team would lose more than just his on-ice efforts if we didn't re-sign him. Most teams have star players they have signed long term with the understanding the last few years of the contract may not be as worthwhile, and sometimes that's what you have to do to retain talent.

Finding a way to move Myers alone would make a big difference to freeing up some cap. Just sayin'.

Edited April 20, 2022 by kloubek

[aGENT]

13 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

so we want to sign a guy wrong side of 30 to 8 years contract but no one in the league would be willing to spend on a guy wrong side of 30 on a 7 year contract.. baffling no wonder players 29-30 love to sign in vancouver coz they'll offer the most terms/money of any team that's why we were having so much cap troubles before.

It's as though this was never about just being able to shoehorn Miller in to our cap allotment, but actually about paying top dollar for a soon to be regressing player (right at the young core's peak), while not having cap space to address the major structural and succession issues this roster has, or the lack of organizational depth below it.... Scant organizational depth we would likely lose more of, to move players like Poolman and Dickinson.

 

Team still overly reliant on Demko, lacks size, speed and grit and PK'ers at both F and D. Lack any succession plan for soon expiring Schenn and Myers.

 

There's a term and cap hit that makes sense to keep Miller and still be able to address these things via other means. There's one that's doesn't. That's all it really comes down to. It was never just about "can we fit him in". 

 

Do we want to build a better team and become a contender or do we want to cling to a bubble team that will stagnate with higher cap hits, structural/succession and issues less depth over time?

[StanleyCupOneDay]

18 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Ilya Lyubushkin is an interesting option. Will be interesting to see how he does in the playoffs with Toronto. 

 

Nikita Zadorov would be an interesting option too. 

 

I honestly have no issues bringing in 30 year old RHDs on 3-4 year deals. We've seen a lot of bigger dmen just get better into their 30s. Unless we go for a prospect RHD, I don't see a scenario where we can get one that's young and proven unless we give up an arm and a leg. 

I agree with most of your post, but disagree on your last point. We just traded a 3rd round pick to get a young (most d-man develop later) top 5/6 D with potential upside who only costs $1.5m in cap space per year. I’m liking a lot of what I see from Dermott. Now I’m not saying it’s going to be easy or only cost us a 3rd, but a 5m young potential top 4 d-man who hasn’t hit their peak isn’t an impossible task in UFA’s or roster players.
 

We have to wait and see who’s available and what they cost, but if anything this team is underpaid for the production they’re getting. Almost half our roster is making under $1m each. The organization seems to know how to find bargains that produce (now that we have a competent coach).

[StanleyCupOneDay]

18 hours ago, BPA said:

Not liking the $2M for a back up goalie.  Think it should be $1.0 - $1.5M.  That will help a bit with cap space.

I think the reason for that is Halak’s bonus of $1.25m next year. Add in Spencer Martin’s $750k minimum and it’s $2m total.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, kloubek said:

Most of my post was about why his age vs a long contract is something to consider, and how maybe we get a bit of a deal because of it.

But let's face it - we wouldn't even be talking about playoffs if it wasn't for Miller carrying this team - especially for the first few months. He has become an outstanding player for us, and I think this team would lose more than just his on-ice efforts if we didn't re-sign him. Most teams have star players they have signed long term with the understanding the last few years of the contract may not be as worthwhile, and sometimes that's what you have to do to retain talent. 

 

100% agree that Miller is a star player, who is key to our club in the now.  But is our team in the right development curve of it's group to have an aging star?   The question isn't whether Miller is (right now) a fantastic player.  The question is about the timing of our group's growth into a top team and whether Miller is going to age out of his importance before the group is developed?  

[kloubek]

22 minutes ago, Alflives said:

100% agree that Miller is a star player, who is key to our club in the now.  But is our team in the right development curve of it's group to have an aging star?   The question isn't whether Miller is (right now) a fantastic player.  The question is about the timing of our group's growth into a top team and whether Miller is going to age out of his importance before the group is developed?  

I would argue that the team is largely already "developed". Since Bruce took over coaching, the Canucks have been something like the 5th or 6th best team in the league. Sure a piece or two still needs to be inserted (like a stud shutdown blueliner), and a couple guys like Podz and Hogs need to find their ceiling, but I think the team we see now is largely the one that will be expected to bring us a cup. I think our window has essentially just opened - which would mean we get Miller's best years before he starts to decline.

If I'm right. I said similar things last year, and the team fell flat.

[BPA]

1 hour ago, StanleyCupOneDay said:

I think the reason for that is Halak’s bonus of $1.25m next year. Add in Spencer Martin’s $750k minimum and it’s $2m total.

Maybe.  But it doesn’t explain the $2M allocation for 2024 and beyond.

[StanleyCupOneDay]

2 minutes ago, BPA said:

Maybe.  But it doesn’t explain the $2M allocation for 2024 and beyond.

Maybe he forgot to change it after Halak’s bonus stops? It’s the right number for next year, but probably not for the rest of the allocation slots for a backup goalie.

[wai_lai416]

1 hour ago, kloubek said:

Most of my post was about why his age vs a long contract is something to consider, and how maybe we get a bit of a deal because of it.

But let's face it - we wouldn't even be talking about playoffs if it wasn't for Miller carrying this team - especially for the first few months. He has become an outstanding player for us, and I think this team would lose more than just his on-ice efforts if we didn't re-sign him. Most teams have star players they have signed long term with the understanding the last few years of the contract may not be as worthwhile, and sometimes that's what you have to do to retain talent.

Finding a way to move Myers alone would make a big difference to freeing up some cap. Just sayin'.

lol we wouldn't be talking about playoffs if it wasn't for demko.. we'd be a lottery team with or without miller if it weren't for demko. miller can lead the league in scoring and we'll still be blown out every game