2023 NHL Entry Draft

[DownUndaCanuck]

On 6/6/2023 at 6:02 PM, Diamonds said:

People seem to keep forgetting that Michkov was very much viewed as Bedard's equal before the war in the Ukraine prevented him from playing in international tournaments. It was considered a toss-up for who would ultimately go 1st overall. A couple years ago Michkov was talked about as having the hands and playmaking ability of Patrick Kane with the shot of Alex Ovechkin. 

 

There is obviously some risk with Michkov, but if he becomes a better goalscoring version of Patrick Kane the team that drafts him isn't going to care if he comes over next year or in 3 years.

People seem to be comparing Bedard to McDavid or Crosby (maybe more Crosby of late although he is quite small), but I'd look at Michkov a bit as a young Kucherov. Obviously there's loads of hype around McDavid and rightly-so, Crosby, but look at what Kucherov has done, especially in the playoffs. He's right up there with the best of the best, and I think that's what's going to happen with Michkov. Kucherov cheekily dropped a 113pt season last year and flew under the radar a bit and I've got a feeling Michkov will be a similar dangerous producer while everyone gets carried away with Bedard.

[Gawdzukes]

53 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

What would they even ask?   "So, looking forward to Chicago? I hear they have good pizza"

So ... whatcha up to in 2030?

 

Asking for a friend. 

[Pure961089]

11 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Eduard Sale is becoming one of my absolute favorite players in the draft. Had to tag @R3aL in this one. Sale looks to me like one of the most translatable skilled offensive forwards this year. One of the better 200-foot wingers I've seen in recent draft classes. You so often only see his level of hockey IQ at this age in players who aren't great skaters and need to learn to use smarts to compensate. The majority of the time Sale is able to make the play with his positioning and by reading the play, but when he needs to, kid can burn. And it's not just his speed, he's agile and smooth on his edges, and able to be highly deceptive with his skating maneuvers. He's always looking to put his body in between the puck and opposing players to give himself extra time to make a play, and he's fantastic in limited time and space, reading and reacting instantaneously to make deft touch passing plays in traffic.

 

The most common criticism I've seen against Sale is regarding physicality and being "soft", so I figured I'd put together a few highlights of his physical play. The first three are from the Czech Extraliga this season where keep in mind he's 168 lbs (wearing #28); the next two are from last summer's Hlinka Cup (#12)

 

Here we see him up against a 207 lb longtime KHL veteran defenseman (Sale is #28 in white):

 

 

Here he goes against 6'4, 184 lb Jakub Dvorak, who should also go early in this year's draft, and again Sale's team comes away with possession (Sale is #28 in blue this time):

 

 

A nice burst of speed to get by the defenseman and take the bump but maintain his balance and, at least momentarily, possession (#28 blue):

 

 

And this is him against his peers:

 

 

This one is just fun:

 

Now if the Canucks are going after pure upside and not the "safe" pick Sale is in the picture along with Simashev and Cristall.  Ive heard Pacioretty comparisons with Sale so even though he's a right winger he might be the player with most upside.  I can see a team swing for the fences and take Sale, possibility in the top 10. Same with Simeshev, I think he's the only defenceman with true #1 top D potential and wouldn't be surprised at all if he cracked the top 10. ASP I see as a top 4 right shot defenceman, and that's very valuable and it's more of a safe bet, but if a team is very confident in their development staff why not take a swing at a possible #1 D like Simeshev? The combination of speed, size and physicality is too much to pass on.  Cristall's raw talent is evident but he needs a lot of work, with the right team and enough patience he could be a core piece in a few years for any team.   There's going to be teams that go off the board and pick potential because the possible payout could be too good not to take a chance on. 

[R3aL]

11 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Eduard Sale is becoming one of my absolute favorite players in the draft. Had to tag @R3aL in this one. Sale looks to me like one of the most translatable skilled offensive forwards this year. One of the better 200-foot wingers I've seen in recent draft classes. You so often only see his level of hockey IQ at this age in players who aren't great skaters and need to learn to use smarts to compensate. The majority of the time Sale is able to make the play with his positioning and by reading the play, but when he needs to, kid can burn. And it's not just his speed, he's agile and smooth on his edges, and able to be highly deceptive with his skating maneuvers. He's always looking to put his body in between the puck and opposing players to give himself extra time to make a play, and he's fantastic in limited time and space, reading and reacting instantaneously to make deft touch passing plays in traffic.

 

The most common criticism I've seen against Sale is regarding physicality and being "soft", so I figured I'd put together a few highlights of his physical play. The first three are from the Czech Extraliga this season where keep in mind he's 168 lbs (wearing #28); the next two are from last summer's Hlinka Cup (#12)

 

Here we see him up against a 207 lb longtime KHL veteran defenseman (Sale is #28 in white):

 

 

Here he goes against 6'4, 184 lb Jakub Dvorak, who should also go early in this year's draft, and again Sale's team comes away with possession (Sale is #28 in blue this time):

 

 

A nice burst of speed to get by the defenseman and take the bump but maintain his balance and, at least momentarily, possession (#28 blue):

 

 

And this is him against his peers:

 

 

This one is just fun:

 

I was fairly critical of him early on and even midseason.

 

I just found when I watched him play he would disappear for long stretches.

 

I dont even think he was that soft. that wasn't my issue. But when we were in the 6-9 Range and he was being ranked super high. Like Button had him super high saying hes the Pastrnak of the draft. I looked at him very critically. 

 

And then when considering the position being a winger. He just strikes me as a player that will get selected by a team with multiple picks if he gets taken really high.

 

I could be really wrong on my view on him, I also haven't seen him as much as some other players and when I have they may have not been his best games.

[R3aL]

1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said:

I've been looking at this more closely. The method all makes a lot of sense and sounds valid to me, despite a very layman's understanding of math and statis. But it's interesting that this is a case where the larger data set may in some ways reduce the accuracy of the results. The data used is from 2005 to 2020. Up until maybe 2010 or so the Czech league was still among the best in the world, and then at some point the quality dropped off somewhat, although it's hard to say exactly how much and to what extent it has recovered in the past few years. Would be cool to see the data broken down into smaller chronological segments to try and track how different league qualities have changed over the years. I would also think Slovakian Extraliga has declined fairly significantly from the start of the data set.

 

Kind of neat to see how high the quality of the World Junior Championships tournament is. Almost on the level of some of the secondary hockey country's top pro leagues. A little surprising to see USHL ahead of WHL.

 

Since I was doing a deep dive on Eduard Sale lately, I thought it would be interesting to see how the comparisons would look if we were to assume the numbers for the Czech leagues were correct - we know they'll likely produce more impressive numbers than they should, so keeping that in mind - Czech U20 over OHL is 0.074 over 0.144 = 0.51389. Times that by Eduard Sale's 2.28205 from the Czech U20 league at 16, converted to OHL numbers would be 1.17272, well ahead of any of the top guys there; Barlow was 0.80 and Ritchie was 0.69. Converted to WHL numbers he'd be 1.19767, ahead of Cristall, Benson, Yager and anyone but Bedard. His 17 year old season is a little less impressive,. Converts to 1.32 OHL p/g, ahead of everyone in the OHL except Barlow and Musty. But I can never make sense of how to account for the differences in ice time. Sale played 12 mins per game in the Extraliga. Seems like that should have to be accounted for, but not sure how much that should be considered to be baked in to the initial conversion. Makes my head hurt to think about too much.

You can dig DEEEEEP but there will always be variables you cant control or standardize for a perfect cross analysis of numbers across leagues. 

 

But thats pretty fun comparison. It still looks rather impressive numbers wise when looking at it like that..

[R3aL]

2 hours ago, NUCKER67 said:

What would they even ask?   "So, looking forward to Chicago? I hear they have good pizza"

Id hope he'd say I cant wait to get them really excited with my play.

 

Like I will be stunningly amazing on my ELC and first contract or two. And right when I am hitting my physical maturity.. Like holy this guy is gonna take us back to the promise land level I cant wait to dip as a UFA and bring it home to VAN!!

 

Ill announce it on socials with Chelsea Dagger playing in the back since you folks love that tune!

 

[R3aL]

Im honestly everyday more and more okay with trading down to 19 if that was the scenario. IF we added the 35th pick.

 

Not ranked just a group of 19 players that we know we would get 1 of for sure:

 

Bedard

Michkov

Carlsson

Fantili

Smith

Benson

Dvorsky

Leonard

Danielson

Moore

ASP

Simashev

Reinbacher

Willander

Stenberg

Sale

Barlow

Yager

Wood

 

Not to mention:

 

Honzek

Perreault

But

Edstrom

Musty

Heidt

 

Say we got Stenberg/Willander/Yager/Simashev at 19 or even a guy like Honzek or But.

 

Then we were able to get a prospect like Bonk or Akey etc a promising RHD 

 

Would that not be better for the organization? Because honestly we all could argue any of those 19 and a few of the not to mention guys could be our BPA at 11 or the actual BPA 5 years down the road.

[canuckpuckluck1]

1 hour ago, R3aL said:

Im honestly everyday more and more okay with trading down to 19 if that was the scenario. IF we added the 35th pick.

 

Not ranked just a group of 19 players that we know we would get 1 of for sure:

 

Bedard

Michkov

Carlsson

Fantili

Smith

Benson

Dvorsky

Leonard

Danielson

Moore

ASP

Simashev

Reinbacher

Willander

Stenberg

Sale

Barlow

Yager

Wood

 

Not to mention:

 

Honzek

Perreault

But

Edstrom

Musty

Heidt

 

Say we got Stenberg/Willander/Yager/Simashev at 19 or even a guy like Honzek or But.

 

Then we were able to get a prospect like Bonk or Akey etc a promising RHD 

 

Would that not be better for the organization? Because honestly we all could argue any of those 19 and a few of the not to mention guys could be our BPA at 11 or the actual BPA 5 years down the road.

Getting creative...dropping to 15 and picking up (one of ) 46/47 from Nashville and then dropping to 19 and picking up ( one of ) 44/51/55 from Chicago, that would really be a home run!

[Isam]

3 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

I've been looking at this more closely. The method all makes a lot of sense and sounds valid to me, despite a very layman's understanding of math and statis. But it's interesting that this is a case where the larger data set may in some ways reduce the accuracy of the results. The data used is from 2005 to 2020. Up until maybe 2010 or so the Czech league was still among the best in the world, and then at some point the quality dropped off somewhat, although it's hard to say exactly how much and to what extent it has recovered in the past few years. Would be cool to see the data broken down into smaller chronological segments to try and track how different league qualities have changed over the years. I would also think Slovakian Extraliga has declined fairly significantly from the start of the data set.

 

Kind of neat to see how high the quality of the World Junior Championships tournament is. Almost on the level of some of the secondary hockey country's top pro leagues. A little surprising to see USHL ahead of WHL.

 

Since I was doing a deep dive on Eduard Sale lately, I thought it would be interesting to see how the comparisons would look if we were to assume the numbers for the Czech leagues were correct - we know they'll likely produce more impressive numbers than they should, so keeping that in mind - Czech U20 over OHL is 0.074 over 0.144 = 0.51389. Times that by Eduard Sale's 2.28205 from the Czech U20 league at 16, converted to OHL numbers would be 1.17272, well ahead of any of the top guys there; Barlow was 0.80 and Ritchie was 0.69. Converted to WHL numbers he'd be 1.19767, ahead of Cristall, Benson, Yager and anyone but Bedard. His 17 year old season is a little less impressive,. Converts to 1.32 OHL p/g, ahead of everyone in the OHL except Barlow and Musty. But I can never make sense of how to account for the differences in ice time. Sale played 12 mins per game in the Extraliga. Seems like that should have to be accounted for, but not sure how much that should be considered to be baked in to the initial conversion. Makes my head hurt to think about too much.

Keep an eye out on the del. They are gonna be a true top five league by 2025 and that 2025 draft class of German kids is elite.

[Isam]

1 hour ago, Pure961089 said:

Now if the Canucks are going after pure upside and not the "safe" pick Sale is in the picture along with Simashev and Cristall.  Ive heard Pacioretty comparisons with Sale so even though he's a right winger he might be the player with most upside.  I can see a team swing for the fences and take Sale, possibility in the top 10. Same with Simeshev, I think he's the only defenceman with true #1 top D potential and wouldn't be surprised at all if he cracked the top 10. ASP I see as a top 4 right shot defenceman, and that's very valuable and it's more of a safe bet, but if a team is very confident in their development staff why not take a swing at a possible #1 D like Simeshev? The combination of speed, size and physicality is too much to pass on.  Cristall's raw talent is evident but he needs a lot of work, with the right team and enough patience he could be a core piece in a few years for any team.   There's going to be teams that go off the board and pick potential because the possible payout could be too good not to take a chance on. 

Asp out of all the defensemen might have  the highest offensive upside, but will need the most work on the defensive side. More on his positioning and using his stick a little better  simashev I love, but he really needs to work on his shot in order to break into the top ten.

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, Isam said:

Asp out of all the defensemen might have  the highest offensive upside, but will need the most work on the defensive side. More on his positioning and using his stick a little better  simashev I love, but he really needs to work on his shot in order to break into the top ten.

And Allvin directs his scouts to rank the prospects according to how much of a difference maker the player will be at their ceiling. If it’s D that’s likely ASP. For cowards, that might be there for us, it’s a guy like Benson. 

[Isam]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

And Allvin directs his scouts to rank the prospects according to how much of a difference maker the player will be at their ceiling. If it’s D that’s likely ASP. For cowards, that might be there for us, it’s a guy like Benson. 

Yeah. I don't think Benson will be there. If he is then we run to the podium. We can pick up some good rhd like mccarthy or pohlkamp later.  Still have to think though we go Danielson. Yeah his u18 was meh, but his overall body of work was great and he fits the type of center this team likes to draft.

[Nucker 67]

Maybe Allvin has his eyes set on ASP or Reinbacher, and if they're gone, does he trade down? I wouldn't mind that. They could possibly still draft Honzek and Bonk (or Simashev,  Willander?), or something like that. Those guys would be nice additions to the Canucks prospects.

[stawns]

2 hours ago, R3aL said:

Im honestly everyday more and more okay with trading down to 19 if that was the scenario. IF we added the 35th pick.

 

Not ranked just a group of 19 players that we know we would get 1 of for sure:

 

Bedard

Michkov

Carlsson

Fantili

Smith

Benson

Dvorsky

Leonard

Danielson

Moore

ASP

Simashev

Reinbacher

Willander

Stenberg

Sale

Barlow

Yager

Wood

 

Not to mention:

 

Honzek

Perreault

But

Edstrom

Musty

Heidt

 

Say we got Stenberg/Willander/Yager/Simashev at 19 or even a guy like Honzek or But.

 

Then we were able to get a prospect like Bonk or Akey etc a promising RHD 

 

Would that not be better for the organization? Because honestly we all could argue any of those 19 and a few of the not to mention guys could be our BPA at 11 or the actual BPA 5 years down the road.

No thanks, terrible idea imo

[BarnBurner]

4 minutes ago, stawns said:

No thanks, terrible idea imo

I agree with this because you're going to have the choice of better prospects at 11, rather than settling for the left overs at 19. 

 

Not saying you won't get a great player at 19, but at 11, your chances are much better. 

[stawns]

3 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

I agree with this because you're going to have the choice of better prospects at 11, rather than settling for the left overs at 19. 

 

Not saying you won't get a great player at 19, but at 11, your chances are much better. 

At 11, in this draft, you're getting somewhat close to a sure thing.  At 19, it's a lottery ticket

[R3aL]

4 minutes ago, stawns said:

At 11, in this draft, you're getting somewhat close to a sure thing.  At 19, it's a lottery ticket

Could argue they are all lottery tickets outside the top guys.

 

Its not like there's a clear consensus on a lot of these players.

 

Where are your drop off points?

[R3aL]

9 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

I agree with this because you're going to have the choice of better prospects at 11, rather than settling for the left overs at 19. 

 

Not saying you won't get a great player at 19, but at 11, your chances are much better. 

There are lots of drafts where the leftover guys in that range >>> the guys 2-10

 

The draft is always littered with busts / failures / disappointments.

 

And this drafts top 20ish is very deep.

 

Im not gonna be pounding the table to make the trade down but if its keeping us in a range to still get a high end guy + adding an early early second round pick that basically a late first I can see the logic in it. 

 

But if there's a guy at 11 that our management is clearly high on our a guy thats super obvious is there of course we have to make the pick. I just think this could be one of the best drafts ever to trade down in depending on how the chips fall.

[stawns]

Just now, R3aL said:

Could argue they are all lottery tickets outside the top guys.

 

Its not like there's a clear consensus on a lot of these players.

 

Where are your drop off points?

1-5 are all potential 1oa in other years

5-8 are potential top 3-4 in other years

9-13 are potential top 7 picks in other years

 

After that, the draft evens out a little to average, imo 

[BarnBurner]

1 minute ago, R3aL said:

Could argue they are all lottery tickets outside the top guys.

 

Its not like there's a clear consensus on a lot of these players.

 

Where are your drop off points?

That's absolutely true. But, you are going to have the choice of a better prospect at 11 instead of 19. 

 

GM's have screwed up on 1OA, on and on, but at least with the higher pick, you have better options to choose from.