[Discussion] Kuzmenko Extension

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, Coconuts said:

Several players have gotten paid off a single year of production, it'll happen again whether it's Kuzmenko or not.

 

Remember David Clarkson putting up 30 with Jersey? 

Clarkson, LE, Okposo, Backes a dozen others ... all got massive money, and didn't earn it, but they did put themselves in a position to get long term deals based on years of play.   Anderson isn't a terrible comp for Clarkson.   Once wanted, now considered and anchor.   His game wasn't points really either, but he still got his fair share of goals.    Kuzmenko in a normal setting, one where plenty of teams had extra cap space not just four teams ... and with all the raises due to RFAs and UFAs, ones with lots of promise and young, the others proven, why would a team put Kuzmenko at or near the top of their wish list?    Panarin played four years before he got his legacy deal.    Canucks ... maybe they've seen enough to believe or are that stupid desperate team some have brought up.    

 

Play him with Miller instead at least.   Or even better Dries and Hogs like Garland last game.    See how he can do on his own, without EP.   

[IBatch]

9 hours ago, wildcam said:

Kuzmenko 27 UFA will be in driver seat lets say he ends up with GP 75  G 25 PTS 55 - Will demand 3 yrs X 4.5--4.9 million

Canucks will be in a tough spot..

Actually with bonus's it's 1.8.   That said a bargain for the team for one year anyways.    What you're suggesting is exactly what i'd be offering IF he's still healthy (ok said 5 x 3, it should be 5-5.5 x 2 considering his age) and sustaining his pace playing with EP.    It's about what he should be getting at least.   Sure some GM might pro scout him and think let's give this guy the keys to the bank and roll the dice.    If that's what his agent thinks, and where his head is at,  unless by some miracle we've solved our D issues and killing it going into the TDL, we have to trade him.    The cost to sign this guy isn't just the money right now, it's the cost to dump a contract as well to make room.   Rather we just stick it out and put Garland or Brock on the line if we have too. 

 

Edit:  Something to consider.  Kuzmenko wasn't a big goal scorer in the KHL.   And nobody scores on 1/4 of their shots sustainably, well accept for Gretzky, Hull and Bossy, Mario their best seasons.  

Edited December 16, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

9 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

If you've got a player making less than $1M and he puts up north of 30 goals / 60 points, THAT's a pretty good discount.  Karnac says, Kuz signs a 5 year deal

This is about what i'd think a teams max term would come in around.   It's ok if that's our team, but it better not be something silly.   Maybe 5.5-6.   The team would be taking most of the risk, but if that's mostly to due with EP that's fine.   Kuzmenko, EP and Mikheyev is a very good two way line.    Once his shooting percentage levels out (15% would be reasonable ... Brocks at 9% right now and we all know what he can do when he's not snake bitten),  50-60 points is a reasonable expectation playing with EP.    Horvats also will level out too.   

Edited December 16, 2022 by IBatch

[HKSR]

I think if he slows down and rounds out at 25 goals and 60 points, then yes, I could see less than $7M... but if he manages 30+ goals and 70+ points, I just can't see a scenario with his UFA status that he can't land a $7M+ contract.  Term could be anywhere from 1 year to 7 years in that situation IMO. 

[D-Money]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: trade Horvat, Kuzmenko, and Schenn at the deadline.

 

You can tell each of them you'll make an offer in free agency (particularly Schenn). But this team needs prospects in a bad way, and the haul from these 3 would be a jump-start to the system. They are the easiest players to move right now, and the easiest to potentially reacquire for nothing (but cash, which you need to keep them anyway) next season.

[King Heffy]

17 minutes ago, D-Money said:

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: trade Horvat, Kuzmenko, and Schenn at the deadline.

 

You can tell each of them you'll make an offer in free agency (particularly Schenn). But this team needs prospects in a bad way, and the haul from these 3 would be a jump-start to the system. They are the easiest players to move right now, and the easiest to potentially reacquire for nothing (but cash, which you need to keep them anyway) next season.

I agree, unless any are willing to take a large discount to stay.  We need an infusion of youth and this is how to get one.

[Bure_Pavel]

I'd say his numbers are inflated playing with Petey, if he is looking for a payday trade him at the deadline. He will have very high trade value as a rental due to his ELC, I think we could use the assets to help build the Defense. Scoring wingers is not a huge issue for us. 

[Smashian Kassian]

I think they're plan has always been to sign him, even if it means trading a different winger, but this could be a tricky situation.

 

Points wise he's on a massive pace, but I don't think he's been a true offensive driver by any stretch. 

 

If it's between 4-6M I think they'll do it, but if he gets 70+ points things could become complicated.

[Canucks_fo_life]

The Canucks absolutely cannot afford to lose this guy, biggest KHL free agent came here over 22 other spots, we finally land a big fish, if he goes I guarantee you the building will be empty next season

[Gawdzukes]

We have $12.5 mil in cap space for next year and we need to sign 4 more skaters. This includes a replacement center for Bo as well as any other cap coming back. More irresponsible spending coming from our management group I suspect. We should be getting rid of cap not piling more on. Our defence will never get fixed like this.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Gawdzukes

[Baggins]

21 hours ago, Coconuts said:

Why would he take that risk when he could walk to UFA and likely get both money AND term from a team? 

 

If he puts up 65+ points someone will gamble on him.

I literally laughed when I read Kuzma's article saying "give him a $2m bump to keep him". That would put him just under a 3m salary. He'd be worth more than that if his production dropped by 50% for the rest of the season (a 51 pt season). I'd be in tears laughing as I walked out the door to free agency if that's what they offered me. A 30+ point player can get 3m in free agency. If he keeps up his production he'll easily be over 7m in free agency.

[70seven]

First off I believe that it’s both parties intention to sign an extension… BUT The Canucks cannot continue to invest in one-dimensional offensive wingers. (With Boeser, Garland, and Miller in tow). Another guy like Mikheyev may be a better investment as he is a strong 2 way player that can play all situations comfortably while providing above average offensive production, and top end speed.  Only way I see a deal like this come together is IF VAN can find a taker for one of the aforementioned players, and then perhaps re-upping Kuzy, but I don’t see him being a fit for anything over 5M. 
 

Van has until the deadline to maneuver the cap and roster to make a pitch like this, and I do believe they WANT for things to unfold this way. However I’m not sure they are able to move Boeser or Garland off the cap, at which point I think it would be poor asset/cap management to sign Kuzmenko.  

Also, since Kuz is on a cheap contract, I do believe there could be some interesting offers for this player that can clearly produce on the PP and appears to be able to handle decent minutes at 5 on 5… absolutely no harm in continuing to give Kuz a great opportunity with Pettersson/Mik and #1PP time, building his trade value, and then flipping him for different assets that could help build the prospect pool/or filing a current void on RD, C, PK with a more defensive minded/matchup player should he remain unsigned heading into the deadline. 
 

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by 70seven

[IBatch]

16 hours ago, Baggins said:

I literally laughed when I read Kuzma's article saying "give him a $2m bump to keep him". That would put him just under a 3m salary. He'd be worth more than that if his production dropped by 50% for the rest of the season (a 51 pt season). I'd be in tears laughing as I walked out the door to free agency if that's what they offered me. A 30+ point player can get 3m in free agency. If he keeps up his production he'll easily be over 7m in free agency.

That isn't a silly as it should be anyways.   He's making 1.8 ... so that would put him at 3.8.    Low ball yes but not too out of line.   Again look at Panarin.  Younger yes but not that much, got four years, both 2 year deals then his boffo deal.   Panarin proved he was an EP or a line driver during that time and it wasn't a one off.   He was also on the radar for awhile before coming to the NHL.   How many people  on this site even, heard about Kuzmenko two years ago ... or one year ago?    Only two players that i remember were coveted as KHL players, Panarin and the NSH phenom that bolted to the KHL, then came back ... and wasn't a superstar here like back in Russia.   

 

7 seems awfully high, but sure maybe some GM will offer him that sort of money.    Our team isn't in a position to even offer that money right now if it wants to.    Personally feel he's earned a 2 year deal.    And that's it.   Maybe if he plays a full 82 game season, we make the playoffs and he's a big part of that equation (so far he is proving to be a very good support player...core?) and he proves he's durable.    Then open up the bank account on a five year deal.   

 

One year wonders don't make me that crazy over a player.    Look at Brock.   He was just a kid and doing great things.   His shooting percentage is way below career norm... Kuzmenko's levels out, he's a 25 goal scorer.    Should we be giving him 7 plus and term for that?   I'd be more comfortable on a one year deal at 7 then a 7 x 5 that's for sure.  

Edited December 17, 2022 by IBatch

[HKSR]

4 hours ago, IBatch said:

That isn't a silly as it should be anyways.   He's making 1.8 ... so that would put him at 3.8.    Low ball yes but not too out of line.   Again look at Panarin.  Younger yes but not that much, got four years, both 2 year deals then his boffo deal.   Panarin proved he was an EP or a line driver during that time and it wasn't a one off.   He was also on the radar for awhile before coming to the NHL.   How many people  on this site even, heard about Kuzmenko two years ago ... or one year ago?    Only two players that i remember were coveted as KHL players, Panarin and the NSH phenom that bolted to the KHL, then came back ... and wasn't a superstar here like back in Russia.   

 

7 seems awfully high, but sure maybe some GM will offer him that sort of money.    Our team isn't in a position to even offer that money right now if it wants to.    Personally feel he's earned a 2 year deal.    And that's it.   Maybe if he plays a full 82 game season, we make the playoffs and he's a big part of that equation (so far he is proving to be a very good support player...core?) and he proves he's durable.    Then open up the bank account on a five year deal.   

 

One year wonders don't make me that crazy over a player.    Look at Brock.   He was just a kid and doing great things.   His shooting percentage is way below career norm... Kuzmenko's levels out, he's a 25 goal scorer.    Should we be giving him 7 plus and term for that?   I'd be more comfortable on a one year deal at 7 then a 7 x 5 that's for sure.  

I think the biggest differences are 2 things:

1. He's a UFA

2. He's turning 27yo

 

Panarin was a 23yo RFA when he signed his first 2 year deal.  Then a 25yo for his next deal at $6m AAV.  It made sense for him to sign a short bridge to bring him into his prime years (ages 27 to 31 IMO).

 

Kuz is already gonna be 27.  A 7 year deal brings him to 34 years old and likely into retirement range.

 

On the open market, some GM will be willing to give him $7m.  All it takes is one.  Same with how there's talk about how there is at least one GM out there willing to give Bo close to $9m.  It just takes one.

[IBatch]

23 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think the biggest differences are 2 things:

1. He's a UFA

2. He's turning 27yo

 

Panarin was a 23yo RFA when he signed his first 2 year deal.  Then a 25yo for his next deal at $6m AAV.  It made sense for him to sign a short bridge to bring him into his prime years (ages 27 to 31 IMO).

 

Kuz is already gonna be 27.  A 7 year deal brings him to 34 years old and likely into retirement range.

 

On the open market, some GM will be willing to give him $7m.  All it takes is one.  Same with how there's talk about how there is at least one GM out there willing to give Bo close to $9m.  It just takes one.

24,25 - then 26,27 ... Kuzmenko is 26 right now.   Panarin proved himself.   Then got his boffo deal at 28/29.   Which i did say.    Potato potatoe - but I sure pray our GM isn't the fool that does that after one season.   Panarin accomplished more than EPs done so  far.  And didn't get a huge massive deal until he'd proved himself.    We don't even know if he can play 82 plus games yet.   Or if he can drive a line on his own.    If Panarin only got 6 x 2, after doing it as younger player, why in the world would we do this?   I sure hope we don't trade Horvat, just to pay Kuzmenko.   I'm fine if they see him as EPs long term wing-man, but 6 x 5 max.   Panarin was literally a top ten forward responsible two way forward that did it on two different teams.   Both not that good really.    Kane has his best years didn't he?    And CLB lol, sure didn't have an EP for him but he did it anyways.   A two year deal around 5 makes sense.   His last season, 28/29.   Same age as Miller this year.   And Kadri just got 7 x 7.   Those guys proved themselves. 

 

Edit:  I do agree some GM might bite.    But they'd be taking all the risk.   You simply don't pay an unknown that sort of cash.   Team set themselves up for a perfect rental.   I'd rather keep Horvat. 

 

4 yrs		NYR	NHL	217	77	207	284	64	56	59	18
2015-16	24	CHI	NHL	80	30	47	77	8	32	22	8	0	7	31	16	0	187	16.0	333	1482	18:31	0	0		14	46	29	35	AR-1,Byng-38,Calder-1
2016-17	25	CHI	NHL	82	31	43	74	18	21	22	9	0	5	35	8	0	211	14.7	396	1597	19:28	2	8	20.0	14	23	57	55	AS-2,Byng-22
2017-18	26	CBJ	NHL	81	27	55	82	23	26	20	7	0	5	41	14	0	228	11.8	470	1631	20:08	0	7	0.0	19	15	70	51	Byng-38,Hart-14
2018-19	27	CBJ	NHL	79	28	59	87	14	23	22	6	0	8	47	12	0	191	14.7	359	1569	19:51	1	3	25.0	17	14	31	56	Byng-34
2019-20	28	NYR	NHL	69	32	63	95	36	20	25	7	0	4	46	17	0	209	15.3	403	1422	20:36	1	1	50.0	18	25	56	82	AS-1,Byng-16,Hart-3,Selke-16
2020-21	29	NYR	NHL	42	17	41	58	14	6	12	5	0	1	28	13	0	106	16.0	222	825	19:39	0	3	0.0	7	13	21	26	Byng-5
2021-22	30	NYR	NHL	75	22	74	96	21	18	17	5	0	5	42	32	0	177	12.4	370	1441	19:13	1	1	50.0	14	22	56	71	Byng-12
2022-23	31	NYR	NHL	31	6	29	35	-7	12	5	1	0	1	14	15	0	75	8.0	160	629	20:18	0	2	0.0	4	8	9	27

Edited December 17, 2022 by IBatch

[Baggins]

9 hours ago, IBatch said:

That isn't a silly as it should be anyways.   He's making 1.8 ... so that would put him at 3.8.    Low ball yes but not too out of line.   Again look at Panarin.  Younger yes but not that much, got four years, both 2 year deals then his boffo deal.   Panarin proved he was an EP or a line driver during that time and it wasn't a one off.   He was also on the radar for awhile before coming to the NHL.   How many people  on this site even, heard about Kuzmenko two years ago ... or one year ago?    Only two players that i remember were coveted as KHL players, Panarin and the NSH phenom that bolted to the KHL, then came back ... and wasn't a superstar here like back in Russia.   

 

7 seems awfully high, but sure maybe some GM will offer him that sort of money.    Our team isn't in a position to even offer that money right now if it wants to.    Personally feel he's earned a 2 year deal.    And that's it.   Maybe if he plays a full 82 game season, we make the playoffs and he's a big part of that equation (so far he is proving to be a very good support player...core?) and he proves he's durable.    Then open up the bank account on a five year deal.   

 

One year wonders don't make me that crazy over a player.    Look at Brock.   He was just a kid and doing great things.   His shooting percentage is way below career norm... Kuzmenko's levels out, he's a 25 goal scorer.    Should we be giving him 7 plus and term for that?   I'd be more comfortable on a one year deal at 7 then a 7 x 5 that's for sure.  

His salary is the elc maximum (950k) plus earnable bonuses. Still, if he hits 70+ pts he'll laugh walking out the door with a 3.8m offer. If he hits 60+ pts my money is on 6m+ on the open market. 70+ will be 7m+. Russian players aren't exactly known for giving bargain basement deals. Hopefully he likes it here and really wants to stay. But he's not an rfa and there are always teams in need and willing to pay. 

[StanleyCupOneDay]

On 12/15/2022 at 2:23 PM, HKSR said:

So one thing that baffles me on here is how so many people think Kuzmenko is gonna sign a 'show me' deal, or a bridge deal.

 

WHY?  WHY ON EARTH WOULD HE DO THAT?

 

Kuzmenko will be 27 years old by the time he signs an extension.  If you were him, and never made any big bucks in the NHL before, would YOU sign a 1 to 3 year deal that transfers ALL of the risk to you?  What if you hit a slump next season?  What if you get injured?  What if, what if, what if?

 

Reality is there is a really good chance that Kuzmenko hits 30 goals and 75 to 80 points this season.  Those are great numbers and puts him easily in the $7M+ AAV range.  As a UFA, I have zero doubt that a team would be more than willing to hand him a $50M deal over 7 years. 

 

I just laugh and cringe when I see people here thinking he will go ahead and put pen to paper on a 3 year deal worth $5M per year lol.  Keep dreaming CDC... keep dreaming.

 

If you bet on yourself, then taking a short term deal allows you to maximize your salary potential. If he thinks he’ll continue improving and become even better then he is right now then taking say a 1-3 year deal at 6 or 7 per means that if he does produce at a higher level he can then ask for more on his retirement contract. It’s what Boeser, Pettersson and Hughes did. Let’s do the math to explain why he could choose a short term deal.

At 8 years for $6m per he makes $48m overall.

 

At $6m per for 3 years he makes $18m. Then if he’s a PPG player who scores 30-40 goals he can ask around 9 or 10 for the next 5 years after. Using the lower end he makes $45m over those 5 years. Add up the total and he makes $63m overall.

 

If he doesn’t play as well for whatever reason from an injury, chemistry issue, team issue, mental health issue, motivational issue etc then that would be a major impact to his total salary over his career. At $6m per for 3 years followed by let’s say $4m for 5 years then he makes $38m overall, a significant pay cut from what a guaranteed 8 year contract would bring.

 

It all depends if he wants to take the safe bet so regardless of injury or regression in his play he still gets guaranteed millions or if he wants to take a bit of a risk and sign a short term deal in order to try to make more money overall with the chance he could make less if something bad happens. One never knows when a hockey career will suddenly end. There’s lots of players who get injured and afterwards never play at the same level. Some guys want to play it safe, others want to try to get the most dollars possible.

 

My guess would be his preference is a short term show me deal given what we know about him already, but that’s just my personal opinion. I definitely wouldn’t be complaining if Canucks signed him long term for lower dollars. He may only mostly be getting tip in goals, but that in itself is a rare skill that’s very valuable in the NHL so he’s going to get paid big dollars regardless of his decision between a short or long term deal.

[IBatch]

On 12/17/2022 at 5:30 PM, Baggins said:

His salary is the elc maximum (950k) plus earnable bonuses. Still, if he hits 70+ pts he'll laugh walking out the door with a 3.8m offer. If he hits 60+ pts my money is on 6m+ on the open market. 70+ will be 7m+. Russian players aren't exactly known for giving bargain basement deals. Hopefully he likes it here and really wants to stay. But he's not an rfa and there are always teams in need and willing to pay. 

Don't disagree.   Just would rather we trade him then lock him in after one year at a boffo sized deal.    Let someone else worry about him.     To me he's way more Dadanov  then Panarin. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by IBatch

[Harold Drunken]

On 12/15/2022 at 2:37 PM, x00x said:

1000% he wont resign here, he wants to win and win the cup, canucks wont win no cup for awile , alot of things the canucks need to improve before they even have a chance at a cup, projected timeframe would be l like 3-5years from now and they need to actually get into the playoffs first, alteast the leafs do, they just suck once they get there LOL , so ya no way kuz will hang around that long, we all should pray EP40 sticks around

Not true, when he signed here...he stated on record Vancouver was his first choice and there never was any question about it. 30 other teams were bidding for his services, if all he wanted to do was win a cup as fast as possible  he wouldn't have signed here in the first place. He would have signed with a contender off the bat...and he easily could have.

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Harold Drunken

[Harold Drunken]

If reports are true, and Kuz's camp won't talk contract until the off season there is inherent risk of letting him walk for nothing. If they are able to clear cap space by the trade deadline, and they have the room to do it I like their chances of re-signing him. Let's remember 30 other teams were bidding for his services and he chose Vancouver and states that it was his first choice all along....if he wanted to be with a contender right away he would have signed with a contender because he easily could have.

 

If Vancouver is unable to clear cap space, it's pretty risky waiting until the off season thinking they will be able to win a bidding war for him if his production keeps at this pace. Then you really have to think about trading him at the deadline. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Harold Drunken