Can we Compare the Canucks to the Avs?

[spook007]

7 hours ago, TiTaniuM said:

AVs lucked out time with McKinnons cap hit. They basically had 10 mil player who was on 6 mil contract and were able to use the money to acquire the players like Toews.  They were also able to convince Landeskog to sign for below market. That’s two major pieces in their core enabling the team to add pieces needed to get them over the hump. You might find some similarities in players but cap structure is where the difference lies.   

Hence management wants to push the boat out before EP/QH/Hronek/Kuz gets their pay rises.... 

Buy out OEL, Trade Myers and go all in next year...

The year after decide if we have anything to go with, and if so, who to keep and who to trade.... Trading water is just wasting our stars relatively good contracts...

[AriGold]

Makaramel MacKhiato 30 minutes before he comes online.

 

[DrJockitch]

I hope major surgery is coming but not sure it can be done until next off-season, and the way this group treats the cap probably best if it isn’t so we know the bill on EP and Hronek. 
My suspicion is they will trade next years first in a gamble to open up some cap, immediately spend it on overpriced UFAs and be in a tough situation again next year when they need to find $20M in cap space for Pettey and Hronek. 

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, -AJ- said:

I'm not sure about all of the various similarities, but I have noticed the marked similarities in the career paths of MacKinnon and Pettersson so far. While they are different players from a playstyle perspective, their trajectories have been very similar thus far.

 

Yes.   Biggest difference is next year is the only cap window we have with EP - they got six cracks at it and time to build ...  At least we got close to that with QHs and Demko though.   Next years Myers cap is going to EP and likely Hronek the following year which is ok I suppose.   OEL needs to bounce back, and bounce back big or we are in trouble.   Still need a top four D...for our sake,  OEL has that in him.  

[Wise Guy]

12 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

You are being overdramatic about Green. We've also already had quite the turnover on players. Looks to me like Rick Tocc has let the players know what he expects of them.

Plus we have assistant coaches that know how to teach defence. I would not be surprised if Boeser, Garland, Hoglander, Rathbone, and Myers are gone in the offseason.

I think we're stuck with OEL. In the end we will see how things pan out.

Some wise men once said "It'll be a long and winding road".

[spook007]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

 

Yes.   Biggest difference is next year is the only cap window we have with EP - they got six cracks at it and time to build ...  At least we got close to that with QHs and Demko though.   Next years Myers cap is going to EP and likely Hronek the following year which is ok I suppose.   OEL needs to bounce back, and bounce back big or we are in trouble.   Still need a top four D...for our sake,  OEL has that in him.  

OEL likely stays, as I'm not sure FA has it in him to pay that amount of money for nada, so..... but if he poops the bed again, the team is screwed...Next year in particular is where they can free up substantial cap. After that the big guns Petey and Hronek starts to need payment followed by Kuz (and Brock although I doubt they'll give him a raise/retain him, unless he raises his game).

More likely to buy out Pearson and Poolman, but if he buys out OEL, the pressure to trade Myers is less, as he will be off the books next summer regardless, as will Pearson and Beauvilliers, if he isn't traded. After that, the cap increases, but once Petey and Hronek extended they can take stock.

[HKSR]

16 hours ago, Makaramel MacKhiato said:

Discussing with a friend the other day, and it seems like the trajectory of the Canucks is eerily similar to that of the Colorado Avalanche's 6 years ago. So I decided to make a bit of a comparison of similarities between the 2 teams:

 

Main differences: Vancouver has a franchise goalie in Demko... BUT also have cap trouble...

** I also should note that Devon Toews won the cup in his 2nd season with the Avalanche... 

 

Do you think we could be closer to winning the cup than we think!?

So... 4 years after Mackinnon breaks out, they win a Cup.

 

So... 2026-27 for the Canucks?

[DSVII]

57 minutes ago, HKSR said:

So... 4 years after Mackinnon breaks out, they win a Cup.

 

So... 2026-27 for the Canucks?

Think you'll have to break out one of your spreadsheets and calculate how much % of cap those key players were for those 4 years om the Avs and ours for the next 4 years.

[HKSR]

55 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Think you'll have to break out one of your spreadsheets and calculate how much % of cap those key players were for those 4 years om the Avs and ours for the next 4 years.

Don't tempt me hahaha

[Kevin Biestra]

On 4/13/2023 at 5:56 AM, spook007 said:

Hence management wants to push the boat out before EP/QH/Hronek/Kuz gets their pay rises.... 

Buy out OEL, Trade Myers and go all in next year...

The year after decide if we have anything to go with, and if so, who to keep and who to trade.... Trading water is just wasting our stars relatively good contracts...

 

You gotta love it.  We keep finding reasons to go all in after missing the playoffs by a couple laps every year.

 

We went all in and still sucked so bad that we got high draft picks.  Now those draft picks are off their entry level contracts, through which we sucked and missed the playoffs, and we still suck so bad that we have to go all in before the third contracts of those high draft picks become so expensive that our window closes!

 

We gotta go all in on the almost retired Sedins.  Quick, sign Loui Eriksson for six years!

Ruh roh, I mean damn we gotta go all in on Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser.  Quick, sign Tyler Myers!

Oh crap, we gotta go all in on Hughes and Pettersson right quick.  We can't afford one more year of Loui Eriksson from the last time we went all in.  If we wait that one year then we can't go all in with the team this year!  Quick, trade him for seven years of OEL!

Oh crap that didn't work we gotta buy out OEL and go all in on Hughes and Pettersson again before it's too late to go all in on them anymore.  Buy out OEL so we can go all in!

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Kevin Biestra

[Baggins]

16 hours ago, King Heffy said:

Colorado trading an overpaid winger and a defenceman who can't play defence for an excellent second line center is something that is going to be difficult to replicate.  You're looking at the equivalent of OEL and Beauvillier in exchange for Hischier. 

Horvat for Beauvillier, Raty and a 1st comes close. 

 

Top 3 picks don't really matter much if you fail to build a team around them. As much as you need stars to win the cup it's team depth that actually gets it done.

[EddieVedder]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

So... 4 years after Mackinnon breaks out, they win a Cup.

 

So... 2026-27 for the Canucks?

Love petey but hes no mackinnon. Best player on earth after mcjesus. 

Nucks dont have the horses avs have or tampa had when they won.

We are about 4 core pieces short

Edited April 13, 2023 by EddieVedder

[kloubek]

I think if you look hard enough at cherry picked stats, you can find similarities in any team.

 

Let's take the Canucks and Boston - this regular season's best team:
- Both have a player with over 100 points who's surname starts with "P".

- Both have a 2nd best player who used to be more an energy and grit kind of guy, but eventually found a scoring touch. Also both with a surname starting with "M".

- Both #1 goalies wear #35.

- Both teams are generally disliked compared to others in the league.

- Both have a defenceman who played 8 games or more, but managed to collection zero points.
- Both have had a Bertuzzi on their team.

 

So, basically, we're just as good as Boston. Cup run in 2023-24. Book it.

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, DSVII said:

Think you'll have to break out one of your spreadsheets and calculate how much % of cap those key players were for those 4 years om the Avs and ours for the next 4 years.

 

10 minutes ago, EddieVedder said:

Love petey but hes no mackinnon. Best player on earth after mcjesus. 

Nucks dont have the horses avs have or tampa had when they won.

We are about 4 core pieces short

Spreadsheet time..

 

What does this tell us?

 

Our core (assuming Boeser or equivalent is part of it) is just not efficient enough.  When the Avs won the Cup, their Core 6 took up 49.26% of the cap.  The Canucks in 4 years assuming Petey @ $11M, Kuz @ $7M, and Hronek @ $7M would be at 51.63% of the cap.  Doesn't sound like much, but it's well over a $2M+ inefficiency.

 

I was also curious how OEL stands in comparison to E Johnson if they were both 3rd pairing anchors on D.  Johnson was a 7.36% hit while OEL would theoretically be a 7.89% hit or a $488k inefficiency.  So funny enough, OEL wouldn't be the issue.  The real problem is how much would be locked into the Core 6.

 

Bottomline is we need to find a breakout player on ELC or some really efficient contract to compete with the likes of the 2021-22 Avalanche powerhouse.

EDIT:  If Boeser was replaced with a $4M forward that is a Landeskog-level player, we'd be about par with the Avs in terms of % cap hit on the Core 6.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by HKSR

[spook007]

1 hour ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

You gotta love it.  We keep finding reasons to go all in after missing the playoffs by a couple laps every year.

 

We went all in and still sucked so bad that we got high draft picks.  Now those draft picks are off their entry level contracts, through which we sucked and missed the playoffs, and we still suck so bad that we have to go all in before the third contracts of those high draft picks becomes so expensive that our window closes!

 

We gotta go all in on the almost retired Sedins.  Quick, sign Loui Eriksson for six years!

Ruh roh, I mean damn we gotta go all in on Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser.  Quick, sign Tyler Myers!

Oh crap, we gotta go all in on Hughes and Pettersson right quick.  We can't afford one more year of Loui Eriksson from the last time we went all in.  If we wait that one year then we can't go all in with the team this year!  Quick, trade him for seven years of OEL!

Oh crap that didn't work we gotta buy out OEL and go all in on Hughes and Pettersson again before it's too late to go all in on them anymore.  Buy out OEL so we can go all in!

 

Obviously we son't agree on this, but in 2 years EP, Hronek and Kuz are gonna get paid or not here.... so what's the plan? 
Benning pissed away the only really good thing he did here, by surrounding petey and QH with garbage until JR came in. 
His main fault was his timing together with an endless line of a average to poor purchases bar a few... 

Miller was a great trade but wrong timing... should have kept drafting at that time instead of cutting corners. 
laat 4 years we've traded away 3 first round picks, and while I'm happy the traded for Hronek, the bed was made the previous at least 4 years by not getting more high end talent in. 
So what to do? Not get a RHD now? Keep the pick another year and wait for Myers to come off the books? Another 2 and gamble on Petey wanting to stay?

Idk but FA knows, and he doesn't seem to want to hang around... 

At least JR/PA have proven able to find good support players. 
Are we gonna be able to turn them into a contender? Have my doubt, cause in 2 years Petey, Hronek and Kuz are going to get paid handsomely as well as our next 1 or 2 Dmen are going to cost, as well and Miller will be getting older... so are we going to have the finances to build a better contender in 3 years time? Maybe, but waiting will cut more years of EPs talent, and that suck. 
If they can get a contender out of this, they may as well start sell off the family silver, break it up and really start drafting big time. 
EP, Kuz, Mika, Demko maybe even QH but I don't think they have the stomach for that. Think that boat sailed more than 4 years ago... 

They had the chance to get a really good player this year, but they did not seize the opportunity. Instead they went for a new coach, who almost ran Demko, QH and EP into the ground and although we probably will get a good prospect, he's unlikely to be ready for another 3-4 year. 
So please tell me, what you suggest they should do, or how they should play it from here on in?

[Kevin Biestra]

14 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Obviously we son't agree on this, but in 2 years EP, Hronek and Kuz are gonna get paid or not here.... so what's the plan? 
Benning pissed away the only really good thing he did here, by surrounding petey and QH with garbage until JR came in. 
His main fault was his timing together with an endless line of a average to poor purchases bar a few... 

Miller was a great trade but wrong timing... should have kept drafting at that time instead of cutting corners. 
laat 4 years we've traded away 3 first round picks, and while I'm happy the traded for Hronek, the bed was made the previous at least 4 years by not getting more high end talent in. 
So what to do? Not get a RHD now? Keep the pick another year and wait for Myers to come off the books? Another 2 and gamble on Petey wanting to stay?

Idk but FA knows, and he doesn't seem to want to hang around... 

At least JR/PA have proven able to find good support players. 
Are we gonna be able to turn them into a contender? Have my doubt, cause in 2 years Petey, Hronek and Kuz are going to get paid handsomely as well as our next 1 or 2 Dmen are going to cost, as well and Miller will be getting older... so are we going to have the finances to build a better contender in 3 years time? Maybe, but waiting will cut more years of EPs talent, and that suck. 
If they can get a contender out of this, they may as well start sell off the family silver, break it up and really start drafting big time. 
EP, Kuz, Mika, Demko maybe even QH but I don't think they have the stomach for that. Think that boat sailed more than 4 years ago... 

They had the chance to get a really good player this year, but they did not seize the opportunity. Instead they went for a new coach, who almost ran Demko, QH and EP into the ground and although we probably will get a good prospect, he's unlikely to be ready for another 3-4 year. 
So please tell me, what you suggest they should do, or how they should play it from here on in?

 

No, I think now actually is the time to try to go all in...certainly compared to the previous instances.  It has just been a complete failure every time so far...a comedy of errors.

 

Now that we've got Hronek, which makes more sense than the other D acquisitions and signings may as well see it through.  At least we didn't shoot ourselves in the foot and give Bo the contract he wanted.  Bo for Hronek plus some other stuff is fine with me.

 

Even if now is the time to make the best of it and try to win stuff before Hughes and Elias decide to Rick Nash us, it still has been a pathetic series of failed all ins going all the way back to Loui Eriksson.  And frankly hilarious mismanagement to then acquire seven years of OEL to avoid one final year of our own all in with Eriksson and then now have to buy out OEL shortly thereafter (and giving Arizona a first round pick for the privilege of buying out OEL instead of them).

 

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by Kevin Biestra

[spook007]

11 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

No, I think now actually is the time to try to go all in...certainly compared to the previous instances.  It has just been a complete failure every time so far...a comedy of errors.

 

Now that we've got Hronek, which makes more sense than the other D acquisitions and signings may as well see it through.  At least we didn't shoot ourselves in the foot and give Bo the contract he wanted.  Bo for Hronek plus some other stuff is fine with me.

 

Even if now is the time to make the best of it and try to win stuff before Hughes and Elias decide to Rick Nash us, it still has been a pathetic series of failed all ins going all the way back to Loui Eriksson.  And frankly hilarious mismanagement to then acquire seven years of OEL to avoid one final year of our own all in with Eriksson and then now have to buy out OEL shortly thereafter.

You say it better than me.....

100% agree...

 

The Erisson pick up sucked, but to go one better and trade his last year, after 5 long no show years together with a 1st round and a 2nd round pick for one of Titanics ankers as well as Garland..., not good. How good could we have looked without OEL and Garland (no disrespect to the wee fellow) but with another 1st and 2nd round pick + 7M extra in cap space... or at least somebody on a shorter / less expensive contract. 

Life of a Canuck fan....

Edited April 13, 2023 by spook007

[alt kilgore]

12 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

Before this thread gets out of control....read this.......... Can you win a Stanley Cup without a Top 3 draft pick? (sportsnet.ca)

 

Go back 45 years and only two teams have won the Stanley Cup without a top-three draft pick on their roster - and we don't have one!

 

 

 

Arguably, Petey and Quinn both might be taken in the top three at the draft, if GMs had their glasses on that could see into the future.  It doesn't matter how you get them, or where they officially were taken. Just how elite a level they can rise to.  And I'd say both are budding superstars. And if Demko is back in form, and with Mik and Kuz and Hronek added, as well as Podz, Hogz,  a lot of younger talent infused recently, we have already improved on that secondary scoring and defense, more than Benning ever could manage.

 

 

 

[*Buzzsaw*]

I assume the OP is trying to compare the current Canucks team to last years Cup Champs.

 

If so, the answer clearly is no.

 

In 2022 MacKinnon was the 2nd best forward in the league, Makar was the best D-man.

 

Plus Av's had Landeskog, Rantenen, Toews, plus a much better supporting cast.

 

The only area where the Canucks might have an advantage is in goaltending, but Demko has to show more than a couple games in the Bubble season.

 

The biggest deficiency for the Canucks is their D... with the exception of Hughes, who even for partisans, has to be rated behind Makar, besides him, there is no one on the Canucks who remotely compares to the Av's back line.

 

Top six in forwards the Av's 2022 team is better than the Canucks, bottom six the Av's are better.

 

This year the Av's are in tough... with Landeskog gone for the playoffs and Makar and MacKinnon both recovering from injury.  Plus no Kadri.  At this stage I think the Oilers may get past them.  But last year... the team was a monster.