[Discussion] Draft and Off Season Talk

[Junkyard Dog]

I would be shocked if we got him. We're literally in the worst position for #1 overall as we're the 11th last placed team and teams can only go up 10 spaces now. We're the last team capable of getting him and have the worst odds of teams capable of 1st overall.

 

They better have a good year next year or all the winning in the later parts of 2022-23 were wasted, as it was for the winning in the later parts of 2021-22 going into 2022-23. 

 

Can't afford no carryover again. 

[24K PureCool]

5 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I would be shocked if we got him. We're literally in the worst position for #1 overall as we're the 11th last placed team and teams can only go up 10 spaces now. We're the last team capable of getting him and have the worst odds of teams capable of 1st overall.

 

They better have a good year next year or all the winning in the later parts of 2022-23 were wasted, as it was for the winning in the later parts of 2021-22 going into 2022-23. 

 

Can't afford no carryover again. 

I fully expect this team to be in the exact situation next year this time hoping to win the lottery from the least likely position for the 1st overall. 

[Odd.]

4 minutes ago, 24K PureCool said:

I fully expect this team to be in the exact situation next year this time hoping to win the lottery from the least likely position for the 1st overall. 

[Elias Pettersson]

56 minutes ago, Provost said:

How do we have a .1% chance at 3rd?  It isn’t a lottery draw anymore so we have zero chance at it as far as I can figure.

 

3% chance at Bedard… between 3.2-3.3% chance at #2.  It is slightly higher than 3% just because one other team ahead of us is out of the mix having already gotten Bedard, so raises all the remaining teams’ chances up by a small amount.

 

The only team with any chance of getting #3 by lottery win is Buffalo because of the rule about only being able to move up 10 spots.  If they win either lottery they can only go up to #3rd instead of the pick they win.

 

 

If one of the teams behind us win the lottery then we would be pushed back to 12. If we win the second pick after we move back to 12 then we would jump 9 spots to #3. 

[Provost]

13 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

If one of the teams behind us win the lottery then we would be pushed back to 12. If we win the second pick after we move back to 12 then we would jump 9 spots to #3. 

You will have to lay that out a little more as it doesn’t make any sense.

 

If we win the 2nd lottery we pick 2nd… not 3rd

 

We are allowed to move up 10 spots… someone from behind us picking 1st doesn’t alter that… nor does it push us back.

 

Each of the two lotteries is independent.  If we win the 1st one, we pick 1st.  Whoever picks first gets taken out of the running for 2nd.  There is no lottery pick for 3rd anymore.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Provost

[Elias Pettersson]

17 minutes ago, Provost said:

You will have to lay that out a little more as it doesn’t make any sense.

 

If we win the 2nd lottery we pick 2nd… not 3rd

 

We are allowed to move up 10 spots… someone from behind us picking 1st doesn’t alter that… nor does it push us back.

 

Each of the two lotteries is independent.  If we win the 1st one, we pick 1st.  Whoever picks first gets taken out of the running for 2nd.  There is no lottery pick for 3rd anymore.

If the team who is at 12 wins the lottery then their position at #2 is locked in for the second draw. So if we win the second pick we would move up only 9 spots not 10, meaning we get the #3 pick.  So it is just the one team at 12 who can allow us to do this, hence the 0.1% odds. This is explained in point #4. 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

If the team who is at 12 wins the lottery then their position at #2 is locked in for the second draw. So if we win the second pick we would move up only 9 spots not 10.  So it is just the one team at 12 who can allow us to do this, hence the 0.1% odds.  This is explained in  point #4. 

 

 

 

Ok that makes sense... it isn't any team behind us then, it is only if Ottawa wins 1st overall but gets pushed back to 2nd pick due to the 10 spot rule, and we win the 2nd lottery.

If anyone below Ottawa wins the 1st lottery they get a lower pick and can't push us down.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Ok that makes sense... it isn't any team behind us then, it is only if Ottawa wins 1st overall but gets pushed back to 2nd pick due to the 10 spot rule, and we win the 2nd lottery.

If anyone below Ottawa wins the 1st lottery they get a lower pick and can't push us down.

Yes, exactly. I double checked and it is just the 12 seed which is Ottawa that can force us to get the #3 pick instead of the #2 pick because if they win the lottery their #2 position is locked in for the second draw and we could only move up to #3. 

[PhillipBlunt]

11 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

If the team who is at 12 wins the lottery then their position at #2 is locked in for the second draw. So if we win the second pick we would move up only 9 spots not 10, meaning we get the #3 pick.  So it is just the one team at 12 who can allow us to do this, hence the 0.1% odds. This is explained in point #4. 

 

Thanks for providing this, Elias. 

[Warhippy]

We are kind of blessed with our draft position.

 

If 13, 12 and 11 go by and our name isn't called we know we can continue watching.

 

If we are called at 13 or 12 we can then storm NHL head offices and pout.

 

If we are not called by 11; then we have something to cheer for.

 

All I know is if we are called by or before the 11 spot I have no reason to care because the odds suggest we will see or face Bedard 5 times a year in our division far more than they do him going east or even to Arizona.

 

So...fingers crossed?

[Nucker 67]

80% chance VAN stays at #11

 

Dammit, this team needs Bedard, and Fantilli would be an amazing upgrade on Cristall or Barlow or whoever they plan on drafting at #11.

 

Kind of expecting it to be like every other year. Canucks will still get a "pretty good player". 

[Warhippy]

1 hour ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I would be shocked if we got him. We're literally in the worst position for #1 overall as we're the 11th last placed team and teams can only go up 10 spaces now. We're the last team capable of getting him and have the worst odds of teams capable of 1st overall.

 

They better have a good year next year or all the winning in the later parts of 2022-23 were wasted, as it was for the winning in the later parts of 2021-22 going into 2022-23. 

 

Can't afford no carryover again. 

We literally did that for 3-4 drafts over the last 8 years.  Had weird runs and dropped positions.  IIRC we actually had the best outside chance at Matthews before a late season string of mediocrity.

 

This years and last years were the biggest outliers but this year hurt a lot.

 

The irony is our last game or two pushed us out of the 9 spot which for me has been the single most consistent team to hit 1st overall in the mock draft when I play it

[Warhippy]

2 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

80% chance VAN stays at #11

 

Dammit, this team needs Bedard, and Fantilli would be an amazing upgrade on Cristall or Barlow or whoever they plan on drafting at #11.

 

Kind of expecting it to be like every other year. Canucks will still get a "pretty good player". 

If we're there and Reinbacher is gone it's wood for me.  We don't have any true RW's in our system (or RHC or RHD or prospects of significant quality) and with Boeser apparently still on the block we'll need a quality RW with size sooner than later

[-Vintage Canuck-]

Best-case scenario: Canucks win the draft lottery.

 

Second best-case scenario: Eastern team wins the draft lottery.

 

Third best-case scenario: Western team (outside our division) wins the draft lottery.

 

Fourth best-case scenario: Pacific team (besides the Canucks) wins the draft lottery.   

[Smashian Kassian]

Ive been debating whether I even want to watch. I know we are not winning the lottery, I haven't got even the slightest of hopes up at all, yet watching that 11th or 12th card flip over & seeing our logo is still going to suck.

 

The unavoidable part will be the new round of crying we'll get over not tanking this season.

[Odd.]

33 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

If we're there and Reinbacher is gone it's wood for me.  We don't have any true RW's in our system (or RHC or RHD or prospects of significant quality) and with Boeser apparently still on the block we'll need a quality RW with size sooner than later

100%. Wood is exactly the type of size we are missing on the wing. 

 

Although if Benson somehow manages to drop to 11th, I’d have to take him. He’s got a lot of Marchand to his game minus the treachery.

[Playoff Beered]

8 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

Best-case scenario: Canucks win the draft lottery.

 

Second best-case scenario: Eastern team wins the draft lottery.

 

Third best-case scenario: Western team (outside our division) wins the draft lottery.

 

Fourth best-case scenario: Pacific team (besides the Canucks) wins the draft lottery.   

Second best case scenario we win second pick!

[Odd.]

Just now, Smashian Kassian said:

Ive been debating whether I even want to watch. I know we are not winning the lottery, I haven't got even the slightest of hopes up at all, yet watching that 11th or 12th card flip over & seeing our logo is still going to suck.

 

The unavoidable part will be the new round of crying we'll get over not tanking this season.

I’ve already prepared the “it’s rigged!!!” comments for later.

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, Odd. said:

100%. Wood is exactly the type of size we are missing on the wing. 

 

Although if Benson somehow manages to drop to 11th, I’d have to take him. He’s got a lot of Marchand to his game minus the treachery.

They need to stay away from wingers unless every good C is gone

[Nucker 67]

Canucks need Cs and RDs. 

 

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Carlsson

4. Smith

5. Dvorsky

6. Reinbacher

7. Leonard

8. ASP

 

Hope VAN gets one of these guys, otherwise I'll be pretty underwhelmed.