[Buyout] Oliver Ekman-Larsson

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

3 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

What was his value in 2021-22? 

 

That's the value that we should be comparing him to and seeing if it's worth it. 

 

He broke his foot in IIHF championships leading into next season. 

If Bear comes back in six months and struggles, are we gonna pretend that he's done and washed up or acknowledge the fact that he just had a shoulder surgery? 

 

I won't be shocked at all to see OEL sign with Boston and go on to win a cup. 

We locked in OEL's value at his absolute lowest. He had nowhere to go but up with a healthy summer. 

 

2021-22 was also his best year in recent memory, with an estimated $5M value. But while I agree that it’s not fair to evaluate him on just last season (2022-23), it’s also not really appropriate to take his best year (2021-22) and use that as a projection for his expected value for age 32-36. There’s bound to be some decline in those years. And cherry picking one good year is sort of ignoring the overall trend.

 

His past five years, the values (per Evolving Hockey) were -3.1M, 2.6M, -0.8M, 5M, and -1.4M. So that’s an average on-ice player value of $460K per season. 

Like you, I also expected him to rebound this season. Perhaps even return to something around his 2021-22 performance. But that’s likely the best case scenario and high point for his remaining career. His career trend lines suggest he’s in decline and will continue to decline. When everything goes well, he can return decent value on the ice (albeit still significantly below value for his salary), but when things go poorly, he can (and has) put up several negative value seasons. That’s why I picked $2.25M as an average value for projecting the next four seasons (and felt it was actually generous). He might have a couple good years where he provides around 5M on the ice, but he’s also likely to have a couple replacement/negative value years, especially considering age curves, his five year trend line, and also his injury history and the mileage on his body.

[Baratheon]

3 minutes ago, chon derry said:

I’m not saying it’s impossible. But chosing smaller players when larger ones avail. Makes no sense. I’m old enough to remember Stan Jonathan kickin the crap out of Pierre Bouchard , Bouchard yielding 6 or 7 inch’s to Jonathan. That’s rare ! But back to the “ few” post. The average nhl player IS 6’1”. So taking the chance on the smaller player is the bigger gamble weighed against the majority of bigger players. 

Yep agreed.  It's the smarter move especially for us and in this particular draft.  (again unless it's Michkov lol)  Even if we got a home run smaller player it still makes things complicated for us.  It requires more wheeling and dealing in order to address our weaknesses. 

 

Having a little feller like that guy who used to wear #10 for us would be fun though!  Especially if he's a local boy.  (and yes I understand that fun does not necessarily = smart) 

[chon derry]

@Baratheon if bensons anything like this we should grab him. But I don’t think he is 

 

[Pbhatti00]

19 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

If we sign Bear to one year around $1.8M,

that leaves us with $14M cap space after LTIR. 

Cap should also increase anywhere between 1 and 3 million this summer! Let’s hope they don’t make mistakes in free agency again. 

[Ghostsof1915]

9 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

He's six foot five measured.  He's got a good looking body.  It's what you want.

 

 

But does he have great girth?

 

 

[chon derry]

3 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

But does he have great girth?

 

 

 

[canuck73_3]

7 hours ago, iinatcc said:

A 5th defenseman he is. Actually that's how folks in the Coyotes media saw him (4th and 5th dman). But of course Benning, in his infinite wisdom, said in the media he saw OEL as a top pairing dman. 

He is a top 4 dman, just no longer an $8 million top 4 dman anymore.

[Baratheon]

9 minutes ago, chon derry said:

@Baratheon if bensons anything like this we should grab him. But I don’t think he is 

 

If you look at him play, he kinda reminds me of Henri Richard to be honest.  Maybe that's not what we need but there's for sure some teams that would be more than happy with that.

[KKnight]

1 minute ago, canuck73_3 said:

He is a top 4 dman, just no longer an $8 million top 4 dman anymore.

OEL can put up 40 points on a Top PP. I don't see him as a defensive stalwart, but some people saying he isn't an NHL caliber defenseman are out to lunch. 

Edited June 17, 2023 by KKnight

[canuck73_3]

Just now, KKnight said:

OEL can put up 40 points on a Top PP. I don't see him as a defensive stalwart 

Him and Myers were actually one of the best shutdown pairs year one when he wasn't injured, this year his mobility was severely hindered by his broken foot until he had to be shut down. Year one OEL was able to cover Myers warts, year two with the foot injury he could no longer do that and the pairing was garbage.  

[CanuckRookieFan]

I am shocked that the board of directors allowed this buy out to happen. The amount of $ spent on OEL is crippling to the bottom line of this clubs revenue. Forget the cap for a second the $3,000,000 or so being paid to OEL for 8 years will dramatically alter and affect in a negative way the fan experience in the arena.

 

$3 million is 10% of the net income Canucks as a organization brings in, it is equivalent if your high school had 100 teachers then 10 of them will be fired. I can't believe the generosity also of Aqua man to sacrifice years of revenue for a gamble. You'll have to generate 3 extra games a year to cover this loss, only a deep run in the play offs will justify it otherwise its a backbreaker for Aqua and the franchise.

Edited June 17, 2023 by CanuckRookieFan

[BPA]

Remember that Sev just got $6.25M x 8yrs.  I don’t think Canucks will get a cheaper D on the open market.  
 

And OEL at $7.2M (while overpaid) is a serviceable #3/4D.

 

So now Canucks are looking for that D which will probably cost at least $4-5M.

 

Should have just let that contract run out.

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, CanuckRookieFan said:

I am shocked that the board of directors allowed this buy out to happen. The amount of $ spent on OEL is crippling to the bottom line of this clubs revenue. Forget the cap for a second the $3,000,000 or so being paid to OEL for 8 years will dramatically alter and affect in a negative way the fan experience in the arena.

 

$3 million is 10% of the net income Canucks as a organization brings in, it is equivalent if your high school had 100 teachers then 10 of them will be fired. I can't believe the generosity also of Aqua man to sacrifice years of revenue for a gamble. You'll have to generate 3 extra games a year to cover this loss, only a deep run in the play offs will justify it otherwise its a backbreaker for Aqua and the franchise.

Actually the buyout saves 10 million. 

[Provost]

1 hour ago, Baratheon said:

Meh.  That's just a math thing isn't it? Most players will be closer to average.  A few will be small and a few will be huge.  

No, that isn't math, and it certainly doesn't relate to the question of whether it is smart to draft smaller players or not.

Lots of smaller players exist in lower levels and even get drafted.  They rarely make it to the NHL though, and excelling at that level while smaller is an exception rather than the rule.  That literally changes the average.  The average height of men in North America is 5'9"... an average man is a tiny NHL player, the hockey system literally self selects out smaller people due to the nature of the sport.

There is a reason the average size of a hockey player is about 6'1" and a little over 200lbs.  In a physical game, it is harder to be successful when smaller.  You also don't see a lot of 5'8" 160lb defensive linebackers in the NFL.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, BPA said:

Remember that Sev just got $6.25M x 8yrs.  I don’t think Canucks will get a cheaper D on the open market.  
 

And OEL at $7.2M (while overpaid) is a serviceable #3/4D.

 

So now Canucks are looking for that D which will probably cost at least $4-5M.

 

Should have just let that contract run out.

OEL is done. He’s not an nhl player any more. He needs sheltered minutes on a club’s bottom pair. The happiest guys today are our key core group. They know how much an anchor OEL was and that he was holding the group back. 

[Provost]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Actually the buyout saves 10 million. 

That is like my wife saying she saved money by buying something we don't need for 25% off.

It doesn't save money because we also have to replace that roster spot.  To replace it with a player better than OEL, the team is going to have to spend more than it saves.

[CanuckRookieFan]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Actually the buyout saves 10 million. 

No it doesn't because the roaster space OEL gives up will be filled so Aqua and the Canucks are paying a double premium for that defense spot.

 

Anyone who understands business of hockey will see that this is the final gamble by Aqua this is the largest buy out in NHL history and will be super expensive for the club, I see a lot of cost cutting measures being implemented over the next few years to survive the 10% immediate revenue hit to the organization.bottom line.

[Baratheon]

2 minutes ago, Provost said:

No, that isn't math, and it certainly doesn't relate to the question of whether it is smart to draft smaller players or not.

Lots of smaller players exist in lower levels and even get drafted.  They rarely make it to the NHL though, and excelling at that level while smaller is an exception rather than the rule.  That literally changes the average.  The average height of men in North America is 5'9"... an average man is a tiny NHL player, the hockey system literally self selects out smaller people due to the nature of the sport.

There is a reason the average size of a hockey player is about 6'1" and a little over 200lbs.  In a physical game, it is harder to be successful when smaller.  You also don't see a lot of 5'8" 160lb defensive linebackers in the NFL.

Yep

I've already agreed with the majority of this.  Cheers!

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

No, that isn't math, and it certainly doesn't relate to the question of whether it is smart to draft smaller players or not.

Lots of smaller players exist in lower levels and even get drafted.  They rarely make it to the NHL though, and excelling at that level while smaller is an exception rather than the rule.  That literally changes the average.  The average height of men in North America is 5'9"... an average man is a tiny NHL player, the hockey system literally self selects out smaller people due to the nature of the sport.

There is a reason the average size of a hockey player is about 6'1" and a little over 200lbs.  In a physical game, it is harder to be successful when smaller.  You also don't see a lot of 5'8" 160lb defensive linebackers in the NFL.

Benson and Bedard are both 5’9 and 3/4. And Benso grew a couple inches this year. He’s still growing. 

[BlakeQuinnAndEggs]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

That is like my wife saying she saved money by buying something we don't need for 25% off.

It doesn't save money because we also have to replace that roster spot.  To replace it with a player better than OEL, the team is going to have to spend more than it saves.

Very true.

 

Management has clearly been thinking about this one for a while. I think back now to all the rehearsals we seen on the back end in the final month.

 

Players like Hirose definitely swayed them towards buying OEL out, cost effective too.

 

Let's hope we get some luck.

Edited June 17, 2023 by BlakeQuinnAndEggs