Hansen - NHL's First Star of the Week

[Junkyard Dog]

2 games doesn't really prove the haters wrong. it just proves that canuck fans either under-rate or WAY overhype bottom 6 players. Get a grip on yourselves

5 goals in last 3 games.

NHL 1st star of the week does. A week prior people were saying he's our most expendable asset.

You sure you know what your talking about?

[KING ALBERTS]

Gagner had 8 points in one game, what did he prove?

[Junkyard Dog]

Gagner had 8 points in one game, what did he prove?

That he put up 8 points in a game.

Hansen put up 5 goals in 3 games on the 4th line. He proved to some fans that he's worth keeping.

[poetica]

Good for Hansen!!

[CanuckleHorse]

I like what Jan is doing right now I was 1 who said trade him I hope he can keep this pace up he will prove all of us who said trade him wrong congrats Kermit

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=740725&navid=nhl:topheads

No-hands Hansen has proven the haters wrong.

I must say that this is quite the feat as Hansen beat out both Tatar and Benn for the first-star acknowledgement.

Its strange to see a player who can't perform with the Sedins, but when given 4th line minutes, he excels beyond belief.

What are your guys thoughts on why he flourishes on the fourth line, yet not elsewhere?

While there's no question that Hansen has failed to convert on some glorious chances with the twins, it's a mistake for anyone to believe that he's been unable to "perform" with them. The fact is that, even with all the missed chances, Hansen's overall results with the Sedins have always been very good.

To understand this, people need to look at Hansen as a complimentary player, and examine how the Canucks' on-ice 5 man unit tends to perform when Hansen plays with the Sedins (and for stats purposes, let's focus on Hansen with Henrik).

As far as this season goes, no forward has had better 5v5 numbers with the twins in 2014-15 than Jannik Hansen. During Hansen's minutes with Henrik this year, the Canucks (as a team) have produced 1.396 goals-for per 20:00 5v5TOI (GF20). For comparison's sake, Vrbata's rate is 0.866 GF20, and Burrows, Vey, and Kassian have produced 0.000 GF20 (zero goals during 5v5 play). Over the season to-date, Henrik has averaged 0.827 GF20 (with all teammates), meaning that Hansen's presence on the Sedin line has actually boosted their goal-scoring production by a whopping 169% this season.

One can only imagine how dominant that line would have been if Hansen had finished his chances. Then again, if Hansen finished all the chances he seems to generate, he'd probably be a candidate for the Rocket Richard.

Even during his horrible season under Tortorella (Hansen's worst performance of his entire NHL career) saw him still put-up decent numbers during his minutes with the twins. During 2013-14, Henrik had a 0.947 GF20 with Hansen, which was better than his 0.828 GF20 average (with all teammates). And, as usual, Hansen's presence on the Sedin line boosted the overall performance of the team, dropping average goals-against from 0.558 GA20 to 0.516 GA20 and raising on-ice GF% (goals-for/total goals) from 59.7% to 64.7%.

But probably the most instructive statistic is to look at the career numbers for Hansen and the twins over the 7-year period from 2007-14 (which includes Hansen's worst season last year but excludes this year). During that period, Hansen played a total of 566:41 5v5TOI with Henrik, which is a fairly decent sized sample to look at. Henrik's average for that period (which includes his best career numbers) looks like this:

1.068 GF20 0.659 GA20 61.8 GF% 20.15 CF20 15.94 CA20 55.8 CF%

That's a very impressive stats line.

But take a look at Henrik's line when playing with Hansen over the same period:

1.094 GF20 0.529 GA20 67.4 GF% 20.29 CF20 15.88 CA20 56.1 CF%

That's improvement across the board. Higher goals-for, lower goals-against, better Corsi. Sure the differences are modest but it's still striking that Henrik's on-ice numbers are all better when playing with Hansen that they've been when he plays without him.

And it's even more impressive when you consider that Hansen played close to half of those minutes during the disastrous Tortorella season when the twins went through lengthy slumps. And that Hansen doesn't have the advantage of playing many minutes with the twins during the seasons when they were winning scoring titles.

Overall, Hansen's 5v5 numbers while playing with the twins are right in line with the Sedin's "best" wingers, with on-ice goal production rates being pretty similar between Burrows (1.168), Samuelsson (1.196), Hansen (1.094), and Kesler (1.217). And sure, Hansen's rate is the lowest of that group, but not by all that much. And in terms of goals-for versus goals-against (GF%), Hansen's numbers with Henrik are the best of the bunch at 67.4% (Burrows: 66.1%, Samuelsson: 56.0%, Kesler: 62.5%). In fact, no Canucks winger has produced a better on-ice GF% playing with the Sedins than Jannik Hansen (for the period from 2007-14).

Basically, that means that the Canucks have scored only slightly less 5v5 goals/minute when they've iced a first line with Hansen than they have with the twins' "best" historical RWers. And while there's a slight drop-off in scoring, the corresponding reduction in goals-against that can be attributed to Hansen is one that has arguably made the line (and the team) more effective overall.

So Hansen's actually been a very good even strength winger for the twins, even with all those missed chances. The team itself does very well when they ice a Sedin-Sedin-Hansen line. And like I said before: if Hansen actually had a better conversion rate on scoring chances, that line would be elite, as opposed to just excellent. That's the difference we're talking about. It's not good versus bad. It's elite versus excellent (and I'm fine with getting excellent numbers out of Hansen when he's needed for injury relief or spot duty with the twins).

By now, I'd hope that the numbers are enough to convince people that Hansen's actually been very good as an even strength option for the Sedin line. He doesn't hurt the team and you could actually argue that he helps the twins perform better. But what about the PP?

Hansen's just awful on the power play, right? It's fine for him to sub-in on the 1st line at even strength, but he should never play with the twins during the man advantage. This seems to be the conventional wisdom around here.

So what's the reality?

Over the seven seasons from 2007-14, when Hansen's been on the power play, the team has produced 5.30 goals/60 and has had a 100% GF% (they've given up zero short-handed goals with Hansen on the ice). That's not a great scoring rate (compared to Henrik at 7.00 GF60, Daniel's 6.99, or Kesler's 7.66), but we're talking about a substitute player and injury relief here, and not a preferred option for the 1st PP unit. So when the big guns get hurt, who should the Canucks call upon to fill the void?

Well, here are the (2007-14) on-ice 5v4 numbers for current Canucks (with samples of 100 minutes+):

Burrows: 5.31 GF60

Higgins: 4.39 GF20

Kassian: 3.71 GF20

And here's what the new guys produced with their previous teams:

Vrbata: 5.73 GF20

Bonino: 6.83 GF20

So when Vrbata went down with an injury, who should the Canucks have put on the 1st unit? Bonino's numbers are excellent, and maybe he deserved a chance to play with the twins on the man advantage. But let's not forget that the Canucks are using a power play scheme that relies on having righthanded shooters on-ice with the Sedins. So that really leaves Hansen and Kassian (with Vey already having a regular spot--until recently). I agree with many others that Kassian has the skill set to be an effective presence (I'd like to see him tried out in the "Kesler spot" off the left halfboards). But past results suggest that Hansen's a better option, in terms of pure numbers, and certainly a safer one (since Kassian's 1.39 GA60 means that the Canucks get burned for almost one short handed goal for every 3 they score with Kassian on the man advantage--which is the worst rate of any Canuck).

So does Hansen reduce power play effectiveness? Yes. The Canucks score less PP goals/60 with Hansen on the 1st unit than they do with their ideal configuration. But when guys are injured, do the Canucks have better options (especially given their righthand shot schemes)? I really don't think so (at least not yet--I'm hopeful that Kassian will improve but he needs to hone those skills on the 2nd unit IMHO).

Is Hansen a bad performer on the power play? Not really.

Anyway, I should probably wrap this up as I know I've lost half of the readers already (TL;DR) and many of those who are still reading are having their eyes glaze over by now. But I hope the point has been made about the results of Hansen's actual history playing with the twins (both the current 2014-15 season and over the previous seven seasons from 2007-14).

And I suppose this needs to be said (just in case there's any misunderstanding): I would never suggest Hansen is the best winger for the twins. But when there are injuries, I'm sure as **** glad this team has him available as an option.

[avelanch]

That he put up 8 points in a game.

Hansen put up 5 goals in 3 games on the 4th line. He proved to some fans that he's worth keeping.

remember the bra-barian? 6 goals in 4 games? i like hansen and want to keep him (i liked him since he was on the moose), but let's not use 3 games as an argument.

[Sneezy]

While there's no question that Hansen has failed to convert on some glorious chances with the twins, it's a mistake for anyone to believe that he's been unable to "perform" with them. The fact is that, even with all the missed chances, Hansen's overall results with the Sedins have always been very good.

To understand this, people need to look at Hansen as a complimentary player, and examine how the Canucks' on-ice 5 man unit tends to perform when Hansen plays with the Sedins (and for stats purposes, let's focus on Hansen with Henrik).

As far as this season goes, no forward has had better 5v5 numbers with the twins in 2014-15 than Jannik Hansen. During Hansen's minutes with Henrik this year, the Canucks (as a team) have produced 1.396 goals-for per 20:00 5v5TOI (GF20). For comparison's sake, Vrbata's rate is 0.866 GF20, and Burrows, Vey, and Kassian have produced 0.000 GF20 (zero goals during 5v5 play). Over the season to-date, Henrik has averaged 0.827 GF20 (with all teammates), meaning that Hansen's presence on the Sedin line has actually boosted their goal-scoring production by a whopping 169% this season.

One can only imagine how dominant that line would have been if Hansen had finished his chances. Then again, if Hansen finished all the chances he seems to generate, he'd probably be a candidate for the Rocket Richard.

Even during his horrible season under Tortorella (Hansen's worst performance of his entire NHL career) saw him still put-up decent numbers during his minutes with the twins. During 2013-14, Henrik had a 0.947 GF20 with Hansen, which was better than his 0.828 GF20 average (with all teammates). And, as usual, Hansen's presence on the Sedin line boosted the overall performance of the team, dropping average goals-against from 0.558 GA20 to 0.516 GA20 and raising on-ice GF% (goals-for/total goals) from 59.7% to 64.7%.

But probably the most instructive statistic is to look at the career numbers for Hansen and the twins over the 7-year period from 2007-14 (which includes Hansen's worst season last year but excludes this year). During that period, Hansen played a total of 566:41 5v5TOI with Henrik, which is a fairly decent sized sample to look at. Henrik's average for that period (which includes his best career numbers) looks like this:

1.068 GF20 0.659 GA20 61.8 GF% 20.15 CF20 15.94 CA20 55.8 CF%

That's a very impressive stats line.

But take a look at Henrik's line when playing with Hansen over the same period:

1.094 GF20 0.529 GA20 67.4 GF% 20.29 CF20 15.88 CA20 56.1 CF%

That's improvement across the board. Higher goals-for, lower goals-against, better Corsi. Sure the differences are modest but it's still striking that Henrik's on-ice numbers are all better when playing with Hansen that they've been when he plays without him.

And it's even more impressive when you consider that Hansen played close to half of those minutes during the disastrous Tortorella season when the twins went through lengthy slumps. And that Hansen doesn't have the advantage of playing many minutes with the twins during the seasons when they were winning scoring titles.

Overall, Hansen's 5v5 numbers while playing with the twins are right in line with the Sedin's "best" wingers, with on-ice goal production rates being pretty similar between Burrows (1.168), Samuelsson (1.196), Hansen (1.094), and Kesler (1.217). And sure, Hansen's rate is the lowest of that group, but not by all that much. And in terms of goals-for versus goals-against (GF%), Hansen's numbers with Henrik are the best of the bunch at 67.4% (Burrows: 66.1%, Samuelsson: 56.0%, Kesler: 62.5%). In fact, no Canucks winger has produced a better on-ice GF% playing with the Sedins than Jannik Hansen (for the period from 2007-14).

Basically, that means that the Canucks have scored only slightly less 5v5 goals/minute when they've iced a first line with Hansen than they have with the twins' "best" historical RWers. And while there's a slight drop-off in scoring, the corresponding reduction in goals-against that can be attributed to Hansen is one that has arguably made the line (and the team) more effective overall.

So Hansen's actually been a very good even strength winger for the twins, even with all those missed chances. The team itself does very well when they ice a Sedin-Sedin-Hansen line. And like I said before: if Hansen actually had a better conversion rate on scoring chances, that line would be elite, as opposed to just excellent. That's the difference we're talking about. It's not good versus bad. It's elite versus excellent (and I'm fine with getting excellent numbers out of Hansen when he's needed for injury relief or spot duty with the twins).

By now, I'd hope that the numbers are enough to convince people that Hansen's actually been very good as an even strength option for the Sedin line. He doesn't hurt the team and you could actually argue that he helps the twins perform better. But what about the PP?

Hansen's just awful on the power play, right? It's fine for him to sub-in on the 1st line at even strength, but he should never play with the twins during the man advantage. This seems to be the conventional wisdom around here.

So what's the reality?

Over the seven seasons from 2007-14, when Hansen's been on the power play, the team has produced 5.30 goals/60 and has had a 100% GF% (they've given up zero short-handed goals with Hansen on the ice). That's not a great scoring rate (compared to Henrik at 7.00 GF60, Daniel's 6.99, or Kesler's 7.66), but we're talking about a substitute player and injury relief here, and not a preferred option for the 1st PP unit. So when the big guns get hurt, who should the Canucks call upon to fill the void?

Well, here are the (2007-14) on-ice 5v4 numbers for current Canucks (with samples of 100 minutes+):

Burrows: 5.31 GF60

Higgins: 4.39 GF20

Kassian: 3.71 GF20

And here's what the new guys produced with their previous teams:

Vrbata: 5.73 GF20

Bonino: 6.83 GF20

So when Vrbata went down with an injury, who should the Canucks have put on the 1st unit? Bonino's numbers are excellent, and maybe he deserved a chance to play with the twins on the man advantage. But let's not forget that the Canucks are using a power play scheme that relies on having righthanded shooters on-ice with the Sedins. So that really leaves Hansen and Kassian (with Vey already having a regular spot--until recently). I agree with many others that Kassian has the skill set to be an effective presence (I'd like to see him tried out in the "Kesler spot" off the left halfboards). But past results suggest that Hansen's a better option, in terms of pure numbers, and certainly a safer one (since Kassian's 1.39 GA60 means that the Canucks get burned for almost one short handed goal for every 3 they score with Kassian on the man advantage--which is the worst rate of any Canuck).

So does Hansen reduce power play effectiveness? Yes. The Canucks score less PP goals/60 with Hansen on the 1st unit than they do with their ideal configuration. But when guys are injured, do the Canucks have better options (especially given their righthand shot schemes)? I really don't think so (at least not yet--I'm hopeful that Kassian will improve but he needs to hone those skills on the 2nd unit IMHO).

Is Hansen a bad performer on the power play? Not really.

Anyway, I should probably wrap this up as I know I've lost half of the readers already (TL;DR) and many of those who are still reading are having their eyes glaze over by now. But I hope the point has been made about the results of Hansen's actual history playing with the twins (both the current 2014-15 season and over the previous seven seasons from 2007-14).

And I suppose this needs to be said (just in case there's any misunderstanding): I would never suggest Hansen is the best winger for the twins. But when there are injuries, I'm sure as **** glad this team has him available as an option.

Sid - you are the only guy on these boards that has changed my perspective/attitude towards certain players. Why aren't you writing for the Province or the Sun? Great post.

[Nix Nihil]

Good post, Sid. Makes the new thread all worth it.

[spook007]

Hansen's best attribute is his top speed. Playing with the Sedins kind of neutralizes that. Playing on the PP too doesn't really take advantage of his abilities.

He's better in a defensive role, because he can transition to offense like flicking a switch.

This is exactly it.

And this is why it's so frustrating to hear all the moans about him.

Already people are starting to comments on him going cold again, and he will like all players do.

But he will still be able to carry out his duties as PK'er and being defensively responsible, which offensive forwards often struggles with, and thus makes them redundant, when they go cold

[spook007]

SID.

Thank you very much for the umpteenth time.

There's a huge difference between facts and fiction, and a lot of opinions here are based on emotional fiction.

Of all the post thrown around here on these boards, nobody backs up their arguments as well as you do.

I don't know, what you do for a living, but damn you're good.

+10

[dura_mater]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=740725&navid=nhl:topheads

No-hands Hansen has proven the haters wrong.

I must say that this is quite the feat as Hansen beat out both Tatar and Benn for the first-star acknowledgement.

Its strange to see a player who can't perform with the Sedins, but when given 4th line minutes, he excels beyond belief.

What are your guys thoughts on why he flourishes on the fourth line, yet not elsewhere?

My guess is he's spent some time perusing CDC and after seeing all the trade Hansen threads he has decided to pick up his game.

[Quoted]

He's had a great few games - let's not get too carried away just yet.

[on the cycle]

Should be change his name to Jannik Handsen.

[Keslerific]

Some well deserved recognition for Hansen, hard work pays off!

[87Crosby]

Hansen plays his game on the 3rd and 4th line. When he is with the twins he tries to hard. I would bet if he played his brand of hockey with the twins he'd flourish. He just over thinks it.

[Nuxfanabroad]

I care about this news..my heart is palpitating furiously!

The relevant question appears, does the Honey Badger give a freekenHoot?!

[Hairy Kneel]

trade him for a top D man?

[Raspberries]

after a completely horrible day this put a smile on my face. Way to go Honey Badger!

[2SKATES1STICK]

This happened once too