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[Discussion] Would You Take This Today..Yes/No???


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Well NUX

I like it, which is a ringing endorsement from a "Tanker"

 

Here is why....................

 

#1. The NHL is looking to expand in the next 3 years................having so many entry level contracts at that point is a very good thing

#2. There is huge talk of moving the draft age to 19...................this will affect us in the middle of our rebuild, lessening the quality of picks that are available...so we should move on this now, before it happens!

 

It will be interesting to see what Benning does at and before the trade deadline.........does he move veterans for picks? I am not sure anymore about taking on prospects as part of the trades, as we have enough 2nd to 4th line prospects and can fill those voids through graduation of our own prospects now.....so I am all for picks, and the "chance" of picking a couple of top end players......

 

To me, this year shows exactly how easy it really is to fill a roster with 3 and 4th line UFA's at a pretty reasonable cost.......what I hope Benning's plan is, is to let the prospects simmer on the farm through the first part of the year, and then regardless of our point totals, start moving out vets and moving in prospects, at or near the deadline.......But he has to ignore the out cry and do what is best for the organization long term............

 

Fans and the owner alike will have to realize, that a bottom point total doesn't guarantee a 1st overall pick, but a high end 1st or 2nd line player "in most cases", and that not only that, but it Guarantees being in a position to pick high in the second round (aka Lind) who was a subtle faller out of the first round, the same can be said for the third round, which is subjectively a late 2nd rounder in reality........this accumulates percentage point for draft success

 

By accumulating extra first's and 2nd's, it will condense a large group of elite and semi elite prospects in the organization, (much faster than most other teams)in a very short time period, and should give us a very solid future.........and a competitive advantage.......

 

This also does not exclude Benning from going out next year and Signing more UFA's if a prospect needs more seasoning...................

 

To me the list is this

 

Edler at the start of the season, while he has no injuries, and has not shown any changes to his game....(aka bad year/aging) value.....late first and a 2nd

Vanek at the deadline..............assuming his point totals are high enough to actually have value...................mid to late 2nd

Sutter at the deadline...............assuming he is healthy.................I actually think he has value.......................late first to a contending team

Tanev at the deadline..............only for a kings ransom ( a mid-first (12 to 16th OA ), 2 -seconds) or a 1st and a high end prospect........nothing less

Baertschi at the deadline.........not Granlund, who I think is a better, more long term "stick" for us................value...........late first or 2 seconds

 

If 3 out of the 5 trades happen..................we win, the draft, and truly increase our future chances of being a top 10 team, and a Cup contender ( Long Term)

 

Keep in mind that if we moved these players and the Sedin's retire..........we are sitting with huge cap space and would be able to go after some elite UFA's

(And the UFA's would know it!)...................Obtaining Tavares and Doughty, would be pretty friggin exciting, don't you think?

 

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8 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Well NUX

I like it, which is a ringing endorsement from a "Tanker"

 

Here is why....................

 

#1. The NHL is looking to expand in the next 3 years................having so many entry level contracts at that point is a very good thing

#2. There is huge talk of moving the draft age to 19...................this will affect us in the middle of our rebuild, lessening the quality of picks that are available...so we should move on this now, before it happens!

 

It will be interesting to see what Benning does at and before the trade deadline.........does he move veterans for picks? I am not sure anymore about taking on prospects as part of the trades, as we have enough 2nd to 4th line prospects and can fill those voids through graduation of our own prospects now.....so I am all for picks, and the "chance" of picking a couple of top end players......

 

To me, this year shows exactly how easy it really is to fill a roster with 3 and 4th line UFA's at a pretty reasonable cost.......what I hope Benning's plan is, is to let the prospects simmer on the farm through the first part of the year, and then regardless of our point totals, start moving out vets and moving in prospects, at or near the deadline.......But he has to ignore the out cry and do what is best for the organization long term............

 

Fans and the owner alike will have to realize, that a bottom point total doesn't guarantee a 1st overall pick, but a high end 1st or 2nd line player "in most cases", and that not only that, but it Guarantees being in a position to pick high in the second round (aka Lind) who was a subtle faller out of the first round, the same can be said for the third round, which is subjectively a late 2nd rounder in reality........this accumulates percentage point for draft success

 

By accumulating extra first's and 2nd's, it will condense a large group of elite and semi elite prospects in the organization, (much faster than most other teams)in a very short time period, and should give us a very solid future.........and a competitive advantage.......

 

This also does not exclude Benning from going out next year and Signing more UFA's if a prospect needs more seasoning...................

 

To me the list is this

 

Edler at the start of the season, while he has no injuries, and has not shown any changes to his game....(aka bad year/aging) value.....late first and a 2nd

Vanek at the deadline..............assuming his point totals are high enough to actually have value...................mid to late 2nd

Sutter at the deadline...............assuming he is healthy.................I actually think he has value.......................late first to a contending team

Tanev at the deadline..............only for a kings ransom ( a mid-first (12 to 16th OA ), 2 -seconds) or a 1st and a high end prospect........nothing less

Baertschi at the deadline.........not Granlund, who I think is a better, more long term "stick" for us................value...........late first or 2 seconds

 

If 3 out of the 5 trades happen..................we win, the draft, and truly increase our future chances of being a top 10 team, and a Cup contender ( Long Term)

 

Keep in mind that if we moved these players and the Sedin's retire..........we are sitting with huge cap space and would be able to go after some elite UFA's

(And the UFA's would know it!)...................Obtaining Tavares and Doughty, would be pretty friggin exciting, don't you think?

 

Why would changing the draft age lessen the quality of draft pics? Do players suddenly get worse when they hit 19?  

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Point totals don't matter to me.  I just want to see progression.

 

Let's just see Boeser, Goldobin, Gaunce and Virtanen all with a number of NHL games this year and looking just fine doing it.

 

Resurrect Vanek, Burmistrov and Weircoich and flip them for picks at the TDL.

 

Key pieces moving?  Edler, Tanev :picard: Sutter, Baer, Granny ...... please.  It ain't going to happen.  Shouldn't either.  Benning has worked hard to create this depth and he's not just going to chuck it away.

 

If all or some of the above happens, they finish 21 - 26 in the league leaving them with a top 10 pick and 10 selections at the draft, who can complain?

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37 minutes ago, stawns said:

Why would changing the draft age lessen the quality of draft pics? Do players suddenly get worse when they hit 19?  

Who would get drafted in the 1st year though?  No 18 yr olds, so the only 19yr olds would be the players not drafted the year before?  Not sure how they would do the transition or maybe they skip the draft in the first year?  Sounds awful for a rebuilding team.

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1 minute ago, higgyfan said:

Who would get drafted in the 1st year though?  No 18 yr olds, so the only 19yr olds would be the players not drafted the year before?  Not sure how they would do the transition or maybe they skip the draft in the first year?  Sounds awful for a rebuilding team.

No more than for any other team

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24 minutes ago, stawns said:

Why would changing the draft age lessen the quality of draft pics? Do players suddenly get worse when they hit 19?  

Hi Stawns

 

I am surprised you asked........

 

So lets take Philadelphia, who has the #1 ranked prospect pool, and has a marginally better team (mid rankings) You could argue, they will not have to rely on the next 3 or 4 drafts to rebuild their team, as they can pretty much just let the prospects they have develop, and "IF" they all develop according to plan, they will have a good team.

 

This can be said for Arizona, Winnipeg, Carolina and Edmonton to a lesser extent...............etc

 

When they implement the 19 year old draft, there will be a void of elite players available through the draft for several years, as the 17 year olds which would be drafted today, age to be draft eligible at 19 years of age, as suggested.............

 

While we are still mid rebuild, and say Philadelphia is not, the lack of elite talent available during those 2 years, will not effect them to the same degree. This will be the same for all teams in starting or in mid rebuild, such as Colorado, Vegas, NJ etc.

 

When and "IF" this happens, my guess will be that teams picking at the top of the draft will produce less elite talent during those 2 years, and this will be like not having first round picks during those years, just like what happened to the Canucks, when Gillis traded our away to get players to help our cup run........

 

I see this potential dilemma as a negative for the Canucks, and one they should plan for..........aka moving early to ensure more 17 year old elite picks prior to that happening, if and when it ever does.

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Just now, janisahockeynut said:

Hi Stawns

 

I am surprised you asked........

 

So lets take Philadelphia, who has the #1 ranked prospect pool, and has a marginally better team (mid rankings) You could argue, they will not have to rely on the next 3 or 4 drafts to rebuild their team, as they can pretty much just let the prospects they have develop, and "IF" they all develop according to plan, they will have a good team.

 

This can be said for Arizona, Winnipeg, Carolina and Edmonton to a lesser extent...............etc

 

When they implement the 19 year old draft, there will be a void of elite players available through the draft for several years, as the 17 year olds which would be drafted today, age to be draft eligible at 19 years of age, as suggested.............

 

While we are still mid rebuild, and say Philadelphia is not, the lack of elite talent available during those 2 years, will not effect them to the same degree. This will be the same for all teams in starting or in mid rebuild, such as Colorado, Vegas, NJ etc.

 

When and "IF" this happens, my guess will be that teams picking at the top of the draft will produce less elite talent during those 2 years, and this will be like not having first round picks during those years, just like what happened to the Canucks, when Gillis traded our away to get players to help our cup run........

 

I see this potential dilemma as a negative for the Canucks, and one they should plan for..........aka moving early to ensure more 17 year old elite picks prior to that happening, if and when it ever does.

Some seem to attach themselves to the idea that a "rebuild" has some kind of definite timeline where it ends........it doesn't.  JB has pretty much rebuilt the org from top to bottom and gotten it to the point where it will just keep refreshing itself.  The one year it would take to make it a 19 year old draft wouldn't hurt the Canucks anymore than any other team

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5 minutes ago, stawns said:

Some seem to attach themselves to the idea that a "rebuild" has some kind of definite timeline where it ends........it doesn't.  JB has pretty much rebuilt the org from top to bottom and gotten it to the point where it will just keep refreshing itself.  The one year it would take to make it a 19 year old draft wouldn't hurt the Canucks anymore than any other team

Sorry Stawns

I see it a little different as I want to see them rebuild as quickly as possible, with as little wavering as possible........It is true that it is a little chicken little on my part, but it will affect the amount of top end (top 5, top 10 talent, more than the end of the first round , and so on, through out rounds the same things will apply.......I am not sure if it will be a one year or two year change, or something in between.......I just think it affects the low placed rebuilding teams more.....for those years, more than the stronger teams.....short term at least 

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24 minutes ago, stawns said:

Some seem to attach themselves to the idea that a "rebuild" has some kind of definite timeline where it ends........it doesn't.  JB has pretty much rebuilt the org from top to bottom and gotten it to the point where it will just keep refreshing itself.  The one year it would take to make it a 19 year old draft wouldn't hurt the Canucks anymore than any other team

Also, I am not "attached" to a defined time period as per "rebuild", but I would like to see a cup here, before I leave this earth! LOL....I am 60 years old, so do the math! lol..........Ouch!

 

But I do think, Vancouver is not a contender, and that you build through the draft........having more picks in general is proven to show better overall returns in general........

 

AKA..........those with more high end picks, routinely have more real NHL prospects (100 NHL game players), than do teams that do not have as many picks...........go figure!

 

That is a matter of record, and proven.....

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27 minutes ago, stawns said:

Some seem to attach themselves to the idea that a "rebuild" has some kind of definite timeline where it ends........it doesn't.  JB has pretty much rebuilt the org from top to bottom and gotten it to the point where it will just keep refreshing itself.  The one year it would take to make it a 19 year old draft wouldn't hurt the Canucks anymore than any other team

Agree.  A rebuild should be forever.  If a GM can get to the point where they're contending and not ignoring the future, that is ideal.  In this way, we shouldn't see the rapid decline that the Canucks have.  Not to mention the salary cap gets in the way and good players may have to be moved before the core peaks.

 

I honestly think that the benefits of raising the draft age outweigh having 1 or 2 really bad drafts in a row.

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1 hour ago, Crabcakes said:

Point totals don't matter to me.  I just want to see progression.

 

Let's just see Boeser, Goldobin, Gaunce and Virtanen all with a number of NHL games this year and looking just fine doing it.

 

Resurrect Vanek, Burmistrov and Weircoich and flip them for picks at the TDL.

 

Key pieces moving?  Edler, Tanev :picard: Sutter, Baer, Granny ...... please.  It ain't going to happen.  Shouldn't either.  Benning has worked hard to create this depth and he's not just going to chuck it away.

 

If all or some of the above happens, they finish 21 - 26 in the league leaving them with a top 10 pick and 10 selections at the draft, who can complain?

CC

 

Other than Edler(older) and Tanev(younger).........all the "key" players have pressure from below and could be pushed out, which is exactly what you want......but those players are replaceable....and will have to be moved (hopefully) as better players emerge........admittedly, the key is to know when! Aka value/development/cost etc......

 

I am not too worried about Edler being moved......Tanev, I am Luke cold on moving, as we had little RHD depth, but we will see......doubt its this year anyways

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