2nd round picks, do we really need them?

[Dogbyte]

Lately I've heard people complain about us giving up 2nd round picks like candy (which is true), so I thought I'd do some research on it and see just what we gave up on. The following are our 2nd picks since 2005 (even though Gillis started in 2008), I've gone back that far as too include Mason Raymond, who is the only second round pick since then that is an NHL'er.

2013 ?

2012 Mallet

2011 ?

2010 ?

2009 Rodin

2008 Sauve

2007 Ellington

2006 ?

2005 Mason Raymond

First off I would like to reference an article which counts that about 63% of first rounders turned into career players from 1990-1999, and after that the later rounds are a crap shoot at best. Overall first rounders account for about 32% of the NHL draft. In conclusion it states that only about 25% of second rounders make the NHL. In the last 9 years we've had 5 second round picks and 1 of them have made it, or 20 percent. So if we didn't trade away those picks we might have one more Mason Raymond but that's probably it.

http://proicehockey....aft_success.htm

Question: How Many NHL Draft Picks Make it to the NHL?

Over 200 players are selected at every NHL draft. How many of them go on to have NHL careers? What are the prospects for a player selected in the first round of the NHL Draft compared to later rounds?

Answer: To properly evaluate a draft, you need a few year's distance from it. So let's look at the 1990s.

To define whether a player "makes it," let's set the threshold at 200 NHL games. We'll call them "career players."

Between 1990 and 1999, there were 2,600 names called at the NHL Entry Draft.

As of 2007, 494 of those players have appeared in at least 200 NHL games. That's a success rate of 19 percent.

But of course, not all draft picks are created equal. The guys picked in the first round are a cut above the rest:

Success rate of first-round draft picks

• Of the 494 career players drafted in the 1990s, 160 were selected in the first round.

• Of those 160 career players, over half have played more than 500 NHL games.

• Among the older players (those drafted from 1990 to 1994), six first-round picks have made it to 1,000 games. Another couple of dozen are still active and within reach of 1,000.

• Based on the 1990s sample, a first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of being a career player.

  Results can vary widely from year to year:

• The 1993 NHL Draft produced 22 career players from 26 first-round picks.

• In 1999, less than half of the first-round selections went on to become career players (12 out of 28).

• Beyond the first round.

  This is where the NHL dream begins to fade in a hurry:

• From 1990 to 1999, about one-quarter of the players selected in the second round turned into NHL career players.

  Those drafted in the third round and beyond are really up against it.

• From over 2,000 players selected in the third round and beyond during 1990s, just 261 made it as NHL career players. That's about 12 percent.

So let's see what we missed out on.

2013

Traded their second pick for Derek Roy. And then didn't even use him as a third line center. Dallas selected goaltender Phillipe Desrosiers.

54 Dallas Philippe Desrosiers G Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]

55 Montreal Artturi Lehkonen L KalPa Kuopio [sM-liiga]

56 Edmonton Marc-Olivier Roy C Blainville-Boisbriand Armada [QMJHL]

57 St. Louis William Carrier L Cape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL]

58 Detroit Tyler Bertuzzi L Guelph Storm [OHL]

59 Winnipeg Eric Comrie G Tri-City Americans [WHL]

60 Boston Linus Arnesson D Djurgarden Jrs. (Sweden)

61 Washington Zach Sanford L Middlesex Islanders [EJHL]

2011

Traded their second pick to Minnesota for two later picks. Something which is completely asinine in my opinion. It's like buying a lottery ticket. Sure you'd like to win but you don't really expect it's going to happen. Reminds of a buddy of mine that went to the Casino because he was short rent money. That pick turned into Mario Lucia, whom I've never heard of.

59 Florida Rasmus Bengtsson D Rogle BK [swe-1]

60 Minnesota Mario Lucia F Wayzata H.S. (Minn.)

61 Ottawa Shane Prince L Ottawa 67's [OHL]

Round 3

62 Edmonton Samu Perhonen G JYP Jrs. (Finland)

63 NY Islanders Andrey Pedan D Guelph Storm [OHL]

64 Florida Vincent Trocheck C Saginaw Spirit [OHL]

65 Anaheim Joseph Cramarossa C Mississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL]

66 Columbus T.J. Tynan F Notre Dame [CCHA]

67 Winnipeg Adam Lowry L Swift Current Broncos [WHL]

68 Philadelphia Nick Cousins C Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]

70 Chicago Michael Paliotta D U.S. National Development Team [uSHL]

71 Vancouver David Honzik G Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]

2010

Traded a second rounder for Steve Bernier. Somehow Vancouver's management fails to see that a proven goalscorer would be golden with the Sedins but I digress. That pick was traded to Columbus and became Petr Straka.

55 Columbus Petr Straka R Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]

56 Minnesota Johan Larsson R Brynas Jrs. (Sweden)

57 Phoenix Oscar Lindberg C Skelleftea AIK [sEL]

58 Chicago Kent Simpson G Everett Silvertips [WHL]

59 Minnesota Jason Zucker F U.S. National Development Team [uSHL]

60 Chicago Stephen Johns D U.S. National Development Team [uSHL]

Round 3

61 Edmonton Ryan Martindale C Ottawa 67's [OHL]

62 Toronto Greg McKegg C Erie Otters [OHL]

63 Tampa Bay Brock Beukeboom D Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]

64 Calgary Max Reinhart C Kootenay Ice [WHL]

65 NY Islanders Kirill Kabanov R Moncton Wildcats [QMJHL]

Reinhart, Kabanov, and Beukeboom are interesing.

2006

Now a lot of us bitch about the drafting history with MG, lack of WHL'ers etc., but this may be good for perspective. Canucks traded their second round pick to in 2006 to Buffalo (again) for Miko Noronen. He played in only four games for the Canucks, with a record of 1-1. He departed for Russia following the season. Terrific second round class in this year. Great job Nonis. Buffalo selected Jhonas Enroth, another goalie taken with our pick.

46 Buffalo Jhonas Enroth G Sodertalje SK [sEL]

47 Detroit Shawn Matthias C Belleville Bulls [OHL]

48 Los Angeles Joey Ryan D Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]

49 Montreal Ben Maxwell C Kootenay Ice [WHL]

50 Boston Milan Lucic L Vancouver Giants [WHL]

51 Colorado Nigel Williams D US National Under 18 Team

52 Washington Keith Seabrook D Burnaby Express [bCHL]

53 Montreal Mathieu Carle D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL]

54 NY Rangers Artem Anisimov C Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [Russia]

55 Philadelphia Denis Bodrov D Tolyatti Lada [Russia]

56 Nashville Blake Geoffrion L US National Under 18 Team

57 Buffalo Mike Weber D Windsor Spitfires [OHL]

58 New Jersey Alexander Vasyunov L Yaroslavl Jrs. (Russia)

59 Colorado Codey Burki C Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]

60 NY Islanders Jesse Joensuu W Assat Pori [sM-liiga]

61 Chicago Simon Danis-Pepin U. of Maine [H-East]

62 Detroit Dick Axelsson L Huddinge (Sweden)

63 Carolina Jamie McBain D US National Under 18 Team

Now I'm sure everyone will point out the Lucic fail but in reality every team failed to take him earlier. I remember watching him in the Memorial Cup and I could not believe that teams weren't taking him as I watched the draft live, especially with his size. He was bigger and tougher than Lindros was. Also, Enroth, Mattias, Seabrook, and Anisimov. Respect for Blake Geoffrion (retired due to massive concussion), and Alexander Vasyunov (died in the Lokomotiv plain crash).

So, in conclusion I would have to say that I don't mind trading away second round picks because it's a guessing game. I guess it all depends on what you're getting back. As you can see we haven't gotten much value for those picks. For instance this year, I actually like Roy as a player but I saw no need to go get him because we sucked, I knew we weren't going anywhere. AV had become stale and it reflected on the team. Then on top of it he doesn't even play him as the third line center when the hole was so glaringly obvious. I personally think AV was pissed that MG didn't show up for work for 12 months and go get a center so he just played Ebbett, Lapierre, Burrows, Higgins.

What do you guys think?

[TACIC]

Trade them for players that will stay, not rentals. We gave DAL Connauton and a 2nd for nothing

EDIT: BRAIN FART

[hockeyking]

Trade them for players that will stay, not rentals. We gave BUF Connauton and a 2nd for nothing

[The Magician]

We should only trade a 1st/2nd if it's to get a big player (Nash, Ryan, Kane) or if it's a multiple player deal

[-Vintage Canuck-]

2nd round picks, do we really need them?

[Hunter.S-Kerouac]

its only worth it to trade em for temp help if we win. what we gave for Roy was a mistake but if mg did nothing he would have been fired sooo there is that. really were lacking defencive prospects due to that I suppose it could be worse

[nuck nit]

Bure: 6th round

Hansen:287th overall

Corrado: 5th round

Keeping as many picks as possible is astute because it is a lottery and late round players make it.

I believe Gillis has given away seven,eight or nine picks.Not sure and too lazy to look but include a first for Ballard and a second for Roy Baby and another second rounder somewhere in there.

The argument is Gillis makes up for it with free agent picks but every team has that opportunity.

A draft pick lost is a potential Hansen,Bure or Corrado lost.

[LeanBeef]

Wayne Simmonds turned out well for us... Oh wait

We traded that pick for an aging Sopel

[Dogbyte]

Bure: 6th round

Hansen:287th overall

Corrado: 5th round

Keeping as many picks as possible is astute because it is a lottery and late round players make it.

I believe Gillis has given away seven,eight or nine picks.Not sure and too lazy to look but include a first for Ballard and a second for Roy Baby and another second rounder somewhere in there.

The argument is Gillis makes up for it with free agent picks but every team has that opportunity.

A draft pick lost is a potential Hansen,Bure or Corrado lost.

[derr12]

Totally worth it for sopels greasy, greasy hair.

[Bure fan]

In hindsight it's ridiculous to get mad at Mike Gillis for trading our 2nd. How many would be be mad if it paid off and Derrick Roy was an absolute stud. We needed a center to make a playoff push and cup run . Just relax guys.

[oldnews]

Yeah, people have probably done a lot more whining than it's worth for those 2nd rd picks that were dealt. It's a crap shoot, but as you mention 1 in 4 means the Canucks essentially dealt 3/4 of a potential NHL player...

They also dealt a 3rd rd pick in both the Lapierre and Higgins deals, but sometimes you simply have to spend a little to get a little.

Not a single first round pick has been dealt, and an extra one added, so all in all, considering the later round successes and undrafted / free agent signings, I think they've come out fairly well ahead.

[Ghostsof1915]

2009 2nd round:

Ryan O'Reilly

Jakob Silfverberg

Kyle Clifford

2008 2nd Round

Voynov

Josi

Justin Schultz

Luke Adam

Derek Stepan

Travis Hamonic

2007 2nd Round

PK Subban

TJ Galiardi

Oscar Moller

Nick Spaling

Wayne Simmonds

2006 2nd Round

Jamie McGinn

Michal Neuvirth

Jeff Petry

Jhonas Enroth

Shawn Mattias

Milan Lucic

Jamie McBain

2nd Round 2005

James Neal

Marc Edoaurd-Vlasic

Paul Stastny

Guillaume Latendresse

Mason Raymond

Adam McQuaid

By the way 3rd round in that year?

Kris Letang

Kris Russel

Jonathan Quick

Cody Franson

Give you folks an idea what good scouting does for you. Detroit in 2005 out of 8 picks in the top 7 rounds 3 made it. That's what the Canucks should aim for is getting 3 players per draft to stock up the team. That way we can take time developing players and make sure they are ready to rock when needed. And best of all we don't have to sign plugs to fill holes in our squad.

[greetingsfrombrazil]

That's a very good post. You can see that you have an argument here, using numbers and facts in it.

After reading it, I kinda agree with you. Perhaps a 2nd round pick's value is higher than it's supposed to be, so trading them might be a good idea. But still, if your scouting team is good enough, a 2nd round pock might be pretty usefull, as Ghostsof1915 listed some good players. Doesn't change the fact that there were also good players drafted in later rounds as well.

So yeah, if the trade is good enough, I don't mind trading 2nd round picks.

[naslund.is.king]

Trade them for players that will stay, not rentals. We gave DAL Connauton and a 2nd for nothing

EDIT: BRAIN FART

[mpt]

You need to go back more than 5 years as 2nd rounders usually need longer development

[Danthecanucksfan]

We should begin to keep them, we cant keep handing them out every year like they're candy

[Dogbyte]

That's a very good post. You can see that you have an argument here, using numbers and facts in it.

After reading it, I kinda agree with you. Perhaps a 2nd round pick's value is higher than it's supposed to be, so trading them might be a good idea. But still, if your scouting team is good enough, a 2nd round pock might be pretty usefull, as Ghostsof1915 listed some good players. Doesn't change the fact that there were also good players drafted in later rounds as well.

So yeah, if the trade is good enough, I don't mind trading 2nd round picks.

[Franksedin]

Ghostsof1915 it's great that 6 guys in the second round of 2005 and 4 in the third turned out to be good to great players, but the point remains that is still only 6 and 4 of 30 selected in those rounds. So really 1 in 5 or 1 in 7. You have a better chance of not getting a 'career' player than selecting an important player. Using the 2nd on a rental, in the event that they don't help with a long playoff run, is a bit of a waste, but if you can utilize that pick for a good player you keep, ala Higgins, you should always make that trade. In the end it is usually a crap shoot that will just get over analyzed anyway.

[Dogbyte]

You need to go back more than 5 years as 2nd rounders usually need longer development