Prospect Development Assessment

[JamesB]

It is great having individual threads on all the prospects, and it is nice to have a thread that updates the stats on each prospect. But there have not been many threads dealing with the development of the overall prospect pool (although there are lots of individual comments). This is how I see things for the forwards, including guys currently on the team. For each player I rate his development progress so far relative to expectations. Players are ordered by age.

Fowards generally improve a lot between 18 and 22 or 23 and only slowly after that, typically reaching their peak about age 26 and holding that peak for about 5 years. These are averages. I know there is individual variation, but very few fowards who are less than solid NHL players at age 24 ever become significant NHL contributors

Kassian: Grade C.Turns 24 in January

Kassian turns 24 in January. We all know Kassian has size, strength and skill, which makes for great potential. But this is his make or break year and so far he has not been good enough. The common complaint is lack of "consistency" but I think the real problem is the mental game. Consistency requires a strong mental game and Kassian has not shown enough so far. Right now I project him as a career bottom 6 player who is not reliable enough to play shutdown. I hope he proves me wrong but he has not lived up to expectations so far.

Vey: Grade C+ Age 23

Vey is a smart high skill player. He could easily have more points that he does so far if he played with linemates who were better at converting his passes. He does not have the physical game or the defensive game to be a really good bottom 6 player and probably needs just a bit more development to be a genuine 2nd liner. He is close but needs a bit more. I put the odds at 50-50. He probably has not quite lived up to expectations. When acquired he was pencilled in at 3C but was not able to hold that position and has bounced around the line-up.

Jensen: Grade B- Age 21.

At 21 Jensen is still young enough to expect some improvement. Considering that Utica plays a defensive style his scoring record is decent and his defensive play has improved. And he has the size and speed to contribute to both the physical game and the speed game. Probably has not quite lived up to expectations. Next year will be a big year for him. If he cannot make the team next year he would be a disappointment.

Gaunce: Grade B+ Age 20.

At age 20 Gaunce still has room to improve and there is no harm in spending next year in the AHL. Playing in the bottom 6 on a defensive Utica team his scoring has been pretty good and he can play shutdown. He has the size and mental game to be very good defensively in the NHL and enough skill to provide some secondary scoring. I think he has exceeded expectations relative to the beginning of the year. I would say he has moved past Shinkaruk on the prospect depth chart.

Shinkaruk: Grade B, Age 20

Expected to challenge for a position on the Canucks last year (before his surgery) and again this year, he was not really that close. He has been decent in Utica, playing in the top 6 there, but anyone expecting him to light up the AHL has been badly disappointed. On the small side, he clearly does not have the strength yet to play effectively in the NHL. He still has time, but I expect him to be in Utica again next year. I think his performance this year is slightly below expectations.

Horvat: Grade A, Age 19.

Most people thought Horvat would get a 9-game tryout and be sent back to Junior this year. But he earned a spot on the Canucks. He has the strength, skill, and mental game to be a solid 4C -- probably the best 4C the Canucks have had in years and is improving rapidly. Not sure how high his ceiling is. At a minimum he will become a top 3C who can play shutdown, kill penalities, take key faceoffs and provide secondary scoring. More likely he tops out as a good 2C and the best two-way forward on the team. Has exceeded expectations so far.

Cassels: Grade A-, Age 19

As a third round pick, expectations were not high. But he is having a great year in the OHL this year (at least until he was suspended). Almost made the US world junior team and probably would have made it if he had been in the US development program. As it was he was kind of an outsider but still almost made it -- probably the bubble forward. Will be in Utica next year, but has exceeded expecations this year by a significant margin. Not a lock to make it to the NHL but a good prospect at this stage.

McCann: Grade B, Age 18

Not much to say so far. It was disappointing that he was not even invited to selection camp for the Canadian juniors, but he has been having a solid year in the OHL despite a setback from mono. Should make the Canadian world juniors next year. I would say his progress is pretty close to reasonable expectations for a low first round draft pick.

Virtanen: Grade A+, Age 18

Coming off surgery this year, Virtanen has done very well. Earned a spot on the Canadian world juniors, which was far from obvious. (Only CDC thought he was a lock.) Despite being one of the youngest guys on the Canadian world juniors he appears to be the best skater, has a great shot, and already has NHL size and strength. If he is made available for the world juniors next year I see him as a lock for the first line. And, although it is early, I think he has the highest NHL ceiling of all the Canuck prospects. I see him as a potential NHL first liner. Expectations were high but I think he has exceeded reasonable expectations so far.

Bottom line: Things looks much better than they did last year and vastly better than the year before, but it is still not clear where the successors to the Sedins are coming from. I think the Canucks need at least one more high draft pick of the quality of Virtanen and Horvat in order to build a contender down the road. I am not in favour of tanking for draft picks, but if the Canucks do miss the playoffs (and i put the odds at 50-50) I am hoping for McDavid in the draft lottery!

[desiboynux4lifee*******]

Horvat is at B- not A

[saucypass]

Great post JamesB.

I love Virtanen but I don't see him being more than a very good 2nd line winger.

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

Horvat is at B- not A

Are you insane??? He cracked the roster at age 19.

The OP has not mentioned Frank Corrado, who seems to be playing quite well this year.

[Brad Marchand]

Are you insane??? He cracked the roster at age 19.

If you read his posts closely enough, it's best to just not respond to his opinion.

He deserves at least a B+ just for being in the NHL already.

[Dogbyte]

Everybody gets an A for effort yah !!!!

[CALGARY!]

OP that was a good read. I would probably move Gaunce and Shinkaruk down a letter in your grading system, but, I thought this was a really good post!

[JamesB]

Are you insane??? He cracked the roster at age 19.

The OP has not mentioned Frank Corrado, who seems to be playing quite well this year.

My post was already kind of long so I just focussed on forward. No Ds, no goalies. Also D's develop later than forwards and are much harder to project.

[2SKATES1STICK]

Horvat is at B- not A

[Langdon Algur]

While there have been a few posts like this in the past this one is pretty well thought out. My thoughts are bellow:

Kassian- C +

As a first round pick and world jr team canada member who was traded for another first round pick and world jr team Canada star, expectations have been high for Kassian. While Kassian has made a carrer for himself at 24 as a regular NHler, it's safe to say he hasn't lived up to those expectations. He's best used IMO as a bottom six forward who can add a scoring threat to the lower lines and use his body to stand up for his teammates and create some energy with big hits.

Vey: Grade B -

Like Kassian, Vey was acquired in a trade but as the cost for Vey was only a 2nd rounder (albiet one used to get a high rated Dman) the expectations for Vey are less than Kassian. That being said Vey has contributed early to the PP and is able to insert himself in multiple places through the lineup but like Kass doesn't look perfect in any spot.

Jensen: Grade C +

As a first round draft pick I think most of CDC expected Jensen to light it up offensively, and after a few decent games last year the hype was rekindled. So far I haven't seen the offnesive consistency from Jensen that he needs to make it as a top 6 forward. Jensen at 21 is still very much a prospect with alot to prove and time will tell if he makes it as a top 6 power forward in the NHL, as a now that is far from certain.

Shinkaruk: Grade B -

While he's been off to slow start due to injuries throughout his carrer, Hunter is starting to adjust to the AHL game and bring that offense we have been hoping to see. Looked great in past training camps but struggled early in the AHL. Hunter I think will take awhile to adjust to higher levels of play as he moves up through the levels in his pro carrer but IMO shows far more long term promise then Jensen as a scoring threat at the NHL level.

Gaunce, Grade B -

Unlike Hunter Gaunce started out very strong in the AHL but his scoring paced has slowed down due to him playing a bottom 6 shutdown role. Like Vey Gaunce can play almost anywhere in a lineup and as a low 1st round pick is playing above expectations. Still needs to work on his offense and may need to wait awhile to get a chance to as he's behind fellow prospect Horvat who does everything Gaunce does but better.

Horvat: Grade A-

As the kid we drafted 9th overall in the Scneider trade many on CDC anoited Horvat right away as the saviour. While Horvat may not be the Calder candidate some where hoping he would be he's shutdown game is already better than most NHL vets. After watching Horvat takeaway pucks from NHL superstars and beat the likes of Kesler and Kopitar on faceoffs it's clear the kid has a long NHL carrer ahead of him, what isn't clear is if his offensive game will develop so that be becomes an ellit two way player like those he beat on the faceoff or if he remains as an above average checking player.

Cassels, Grade A

As a third rounder the expectations for Cassels where low and when we was drafted most projected Cassels as a bottom pairing checker despite his strong OHL numbers. Cassels numbers in the OHL are even better this year, proving last year wasn't a fluke. Like Gaunce and Horvat Cassels has the potential to be a good two way player and is doing everything he can to prove it at the Jr. level, next year should ge a real test for him to see if he can produce offensively at the AHL level.

McCann: Grade B-

Above PPG numbers but slightly better than average in both ends of the rink this season wasn't enough for McCann to get a WJC invite. Hard to rate him because I haven't seen much of his play. Kid has promise but has a long way to go.

Virtanen: Grade A+

Ok I admit at the draft I wanted the Canucks to take Nylander but after watching Virt play at the World Jrs and looking at how strong he came back after what could have been a carrer derailing injury I see now that Virts the real deal and at 18 has proven himself to be the Canucks top prospect.

[TOMapleLaughs]

He's just 23, but I'm not sure if Kassian still qualifies as a prospect with 181 NHL games under his belt.

[Warhippy]

My issue with this is Vey and Kassian

One is getting preferential treatment and ice/PP time while holding mediocre to sub par possession or advanced stats. last nights game showed how easily he gets pushed around

The other hasn't even sniffed the top 6 in his career yet has put in his time earned it and has a shade more upside is quicker and has a better pass without any PP time while holding solid possession and advanced stats

It all comes down to how you perceive these things as to how you want to rank our prospects. I for one won't even bother trying because everyone is going to have a differing opinion that will lead to arguments and most won't look beyond the simple numbers

[JamesB]

OP that was a good read. I would probably move Gaunce and Shinkaruk down a letter in your grading system, but, I thought this was a really good post!

To be honest you are probably right about Gaunce and Shinkaruk. I did not want to be too tough as every prospect has defenders who I do want to upset.

[JamesB]

While there have been a few posts like this in the past this one is pretty well thought out. My thoughts are bellow:

Kassian- C +

As a first round pick ....

....

Virtanen: Grade A+

Ok I admit at the draft I wanted the Canucks to take Nylander but after watching Virt play at the World Jrs and looking at how strong he came back after what could have been a carrer derailing injury I see now that Virts the real deal and at 18 has proven himself to be the Canucks top prospect.

Thanks for the thoughtfull comments -- which are about as long as my OP, and I know that took a while.

A couple of quick edits:

1. Vey was traded for a 2nd round pick (obtained in trade for Garrison). I agree that Vey is still better than the expected value of a 2nd rounder, so the trade for Vey still looks pretty good.

2. Gaunce was a low first round pick (26th overall). But I agree that he is doing pretty well.

I have to admit that I too favored Nylander over Virtanen at various times. It was a close call. But I was relieved when the Canucks took Virtanen, so I am claiming that he was my favored choice at the #6 spot. The high skill Euros (Nylander and Ehlers) do look good but I am very happy with Virtanen. The trouble with smallish non-physical high-skill players like Nylander and Ehlers is that they can light things up against weaker players but have trouble against the Getzlafs and Perrys and Kopitars of the world -- guys with size and skill. Guys like Virtanen and Horvat can play against anyone.

[smithers joe]

vey is going to be a very good player here but might need a year in utica to hone his skills....i don't think kassian will get higher than 3rw....i love his toughness and puck handling....i'ld love it if he could make it into a top 6 role, but i just don't see it...virtanen adds goal scoring to his skating and toughness...but is lacking in on ice vision....

i'm not aware of the utica boys and junior's progress...horvat like hodgson has to work up the line up....hodgson wasn't willing to let his ability dictate his position....i believe that the sedins will retire at the end of their contracts as canucks...the question is...who have we got that can fill their shoes?....

[YEGCanuck]

This simply highlights the fact we need to add defensive depth to our system.

[Langdon Algur]

Thanks for the thoughtfull comments -- which are about as long as my OP, and I know that took a while.

A couple of quick edits:

1. Vey was traded for a 2nd round pick (obtained in trade for Garrison). I agree that Vey is still better than the expected value of a 2nd rounder, so the trade for Vey still looks pretty good.

2. Gaunce was a low first round pick (26th overall). But I agree that he is doing pretty well.

I have to admit that I too favored Nylander over Virtanen at various times. It was a close call. But I was relieved when the Canucks took Virtanen, so I am claiming that he was my favored choice at the #6 spot. The high skill Euros (Nylander and Ehlers) do look good but I am very happy with Virtanen. The trouble with smallish non-physical high-skill players like Nylander and Ehlers is that they can light things up against weaker players but have trouble against the Getzlafs and Perrys and Kopitars of the world -- guys with size and skill. Guys like Virtanen and Horvat can play against anyone.

Thanks, made those changes, my bad. Not sure I buy the smallish guys lighting in up in Jr due to 'weaker' competition but struggling in the big leagues arguement (although it was certaintly true for Schroeder) their are plenty of big physical guys in the Jr. leagues too. On that note I really wish the Canucks drafted Brayden Point, can't believe that kids slipped to the 3rd round. It will be interesting to see if he has a better NHL carrer than Tryamkin

[JamesB]

My issue with this is Vey and Kassian

One is getting preferential treatment and ice/PP time while holding mediocre to sub par possession or advanced stats. last nights game showed how easily he gets pushed around

The other hasn't even sniffed the top 6 in his career yet has put in his time earned it and has a shade more upside is quicker and has a better pass without any PP time while holding solid possession and advanced stats

It all comes down to how you perceive these things as to how you want to rank our prospects. I for one won't even bother trying because everyone is going to have a differing opinion that will lead to arguments and most won't look beyond the simple numbers

I think advanced stats are interesting, but they do contain biases. The advanced stats (like Corsi and Fenwick numbers) are based on shot attempts. The logic is that a line that generates a lot of shot attempts must be spending a lot of time in the offensive zone and much have the puck ("possession" numbers).

But it is not quite right. Players like Vey (and the Sedins) hold the puck in the offensive zone for long periods without making a shot attempt. They try hard to make good passes and set up high quality scoring chances instead of just shooting and hoping for something good to happen. Therefore Corsi numbers tend to understate the value of players like Vey and the Sedins.

I agree that it is good to adjust for opponent quality (as some advanced stats do), and I agree that shot attempt convey some relevant information. But I think that the "true" relative possession numbers for Vey and Kassian are probably pretty close.

[Gaudette Celly]

vey is going to be a very good player here but might need a year in utica to hone his skills...

Waivers issue, he's here for good. Vey took a year or so to get going in the AHL and likely will here as well. Shows lots of top-6 potential (especially if winged by the likes of Virtanen/Jensen/Kassian/Matthias), just need to be patient.

[SamJamIam]

I think advanced stats are interesting, but they do contain biases. The advanced stats (like Corsi and Fenwick numbers) are based on shot attempts. The logic is that a line that generates a lot of shot attempts must be spending a lot of time in the offensive zone and much have the puck ("possession" numbers).

But it is not quite right. Players like Vey (and the Sedins) hold the puck in the offensive zone for long periods without making a shot attempt. They try hard to make good passes and set up high quality scoring chances instead of just shooting and hoping for something good to happen. Therefore Corsi numbers tend to understate the value of players like Vey and the Sedins.

I agree that it is good to adjust for opponent quality (as some advanced stats do), and I agree that shot attempt convey some relevant information. But I think that the "true" relative possession numbers for Vey and Kassian are probably pretty close.

Your questions about shot quality have already been addressed by numerous fancy stats analysts. Shot quality is basically noise that is VERY rarely repeatable by players year over year. What is almost entirely responsible for production success is shot rate. Neither Vey nor Kassian are exceptions to this and thus corsi is a very important indicator. If you want to read some ofthe research into this, I've included an article below:

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/26/shot-quality-revisited-a-look-at-the-correlation-between-scoring-chances-and-shot-totals