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Jim Benning Pre Draft talk (TSN 1040, June 17)


Gstank29

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I haven't got an issue with having an experienced goalie showing the ropes to the young up and coming goalie. I have an issue with paying said goalie 6 mill to do so

That's the cost of a good experienced goalie signed as a UFA. Look at all the good goalies in the league that re-signed with their teams, not much difference in salary and you need to pay more on the UFA market on day 1

IMO his contract is fair given the circumstances especially since Miller doesn't have a full NTC

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Tanking isn't how they got there? 2 key pieces in Stamkos (franchise forward) and Hedman (franchise dman) came directly from tanking. Without those two players, the Lightning would not be where they are.

Like any sport, being terrible for years is what gives you the best shot to build from within. Chicago, Pittsburgh, Tampa all did that and are in the midst of some phenomenal up years, the reward for patience over those terrible years.

Some teams Detroit for example manage to say relevant for long stretches because of their exceptional drafting. The Canucks are unable to boast in that regard, so it would have served the teams future better to sell and start a full rebuild.

Having said that, I can't argue with the way the retool is working right now. The kids are developing nicely and while there are no superstars or franchise players to speak of, the Canucks have a solid foundation to start from. If Benning can swing a deal for a high pick to secure a future franchise D or forward, this team will be in great shape.

In Tampa's case good drafting outside the first round is what led them to where they are, you need the franchise pieces yes but its the good drafting in the later round & good UFA signings like Johnson & Sustr which have really taken that team to the next level.

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Virtanen is not safer than Nylander or Ehlers, and he was not last year either. Virtanen's comparables in terms of size, scoring, and age were not better than Nylander/Ehlers' comparables last year; both of the latter had cohorts who 1) made it to the NHL more frequently and 2) produced at a higher rate when they were there.

CanucksArmy did a piece on this before the draft last year:

http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/18/jake-virtanen-is-good-so-don-t-draft-him

But hindsight and a new system for measuring comparables makes their point absolutely clear:

http://canucksarmy.com/2015/6/19/benning-s-year-1-report-card-part-3-2014-draft-revisited

Do you want to know what's depressing? Virtanen's player cohort based on his performance this past year end up being NHLers with 200 games or more only 11% of the time, and even last year it was only 29%. That's not good enough for 6th overall. Meanwhile, Nylander's player cohort during his draft year had successful NHL careers 46% of the time, and this year that improved to 50%. Oh yeah, and his NHL comparables scored at 0.63 points per game.

So yeah, Virtanen was not safer, did not project better, and has not taken any steps forward to change that this past year. Instead, we got to watch Toronto draft Nylander and have him score at 0.86 ppg against men—AS AN 18 YEAR OLD.

I mean, best of luck to Virtanen. I badly want for him to succeed. But Benning dropped the ball big time on that 6th pick. We endured a terrible season in 2013-14 and, if we're very lucky, all we'll have to show for it is a scoring middle-6 winger instead of a potential 1C.

Nylander- 5' 9" 169 lbs

Ehlers- 5' 10" 176 lbs

Virtanen 6' 0" 208 lbs

The trend toward smaller players is not guaranteed. The League has changed refing standards mid-seaon before and will probably do so again if it helps their American markets. That was what Gillis meant when he referred to "chasing a moving target."

We are much better off having size as well as speed in our lineup. Our future #1 center better be a power-type center with size and speed. I'm glad we passed on the little guys.

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Just looked at the player types that had the most success against Chicago in the playoffs. Tampa's small snipers Johnson and Kucherov, for example, vanished against them. But Getzlaf and Anaheims power wingers racked up points against them, as well as Nashville's guys. I believe Chicago/Anaheim was the real finals because it was a lot closer. I wanted Tampa to win, but the close scores flattered them. Chicago controlled the whole series.

I don't think anything has changed at all when it comes to winning in the playoffs, and it never will. And no, I am not saying line up a team full of 250lb goons either. It's always been about the combination of speed, strength and skill to get pucks to opposition nets. If you don't have enough of this, you'll never win.

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Nylander- 5' 9" 169 lbs

Ehlers- 5' 10" 176 lbs

Virtanen 6' 0" 208 lbs

The trend toward smaller players is not guaranteed. The League has changed refing standards mid-seaon before and will probably do so again if it helps their American markets. That was what Gillis meant when he referred to "chasing a moving target."

We are much better off having size as well as speed in our lineup. Our future #1 center better be a power-type center with size and speed. I'm glad we passed on the little guys.

Ehlers and Nylander would get eaten up in our division

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Nylander- 5' 9" 169 lbs

Ehlers- 5' 10" 176 lbs

Virtanen 6' 0" 208 lbs

The trend toward smaller players is not guaranteed. The League has changed refing standards mid-seaon before and will probably do so again if it helps their American markets. That was what Gillis meant when he referred to "chasing a moving target."

We are much better off having size as well as speed in our lineup. Our future #1 center better be a power-type center with size and speed. I'm glad we passed on the little guys.

At last year's draft combine both Nylander and Ehlers were measured at 5'11" and Virtanen was 6' 0.75".

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Just looked at the player types that had the most success against Chicago in the playoffs. Tampa's small snipers Johnson and Kucherov, for example, vanished against them. But Getzlaf and Anaheims power wingers racked up points against them, as well as Nashville's guys. I believe Chicago/Anaheim was the real finals because it was a lot closer. I wanted Tampa to win, but the close scores flattered them. Chicago controlled the whole series.

I don't think anything has changed at all when it comes to winning in the playoffs, and it never will. And no, I am not saying line up a team full of 250lb goons either. It's always been about the combination of speed, strength and skill to get pucks to opposition nets. If you don't have enough of this, you'll never win.

They never lost because of size. Johnson was their best player until he got injured and Kucherov was injured as well. Both are only 2nd year players, have much more room to get better and are the biggest reasons their team even got as far as they did. Stamkos, on the other hand, could have made Mason Raymond look like a playoff performer based on his play despite the fact he was bigger, more experienced and more highly regarded player in terms of talent than both. Size didn't destroy the bolts, losing their best players to injury like Johnson, Kucherov and Bishop to the point where they literally had to throw a game away starting a 20 year old rookie is what ended up doing them in. Luck is a factor and certainly the Lightning didn't have it.

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They never lost because of size. Johnson was their best player until he got injured and Kucherov was injured as well. Both are only 2nd year players, have much more room to get better and are the biggest reasons their team even got as far as they did. Stamkos, on the other hand, could have made Mason Raymond look like a playoff performer based on his play despite the fact he was bigger, more experienced and more highly regarded player in terms of talent than both. Size didn't destroy the bolts, losing their best players to injury like Johnson, Kucherov and Bishop to the point where they literally had to throw a game away starting a 20 year old rookie is what ended up doing them in. Luck is a factor and certainly the Lightning didn't have it.

So they lost not because of size, but because of injury. Yet, if they were bigger, they would not have been as easily injured.

Interesting, but I think i'm just going to stand by what i'm saying instead of looking into this. The size, strength and skill combination that the Hawks had once again was the class of the league. I think most winners have this superior combination. Hopefully the Canucks have a plan to get like this in the future. Otherwise, using injuries as an excuse will continue.

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They aren't even close to Jake's size, and nowhere near his strength. Ehlers was constantly on the ice playing against boys while Virtanen was slapping down pros in the AHL playoffs.

That's a poor analogy to make. Would be like saying mcdavid was slapping down boys while virtanen was slapping down men. Has no bearing on who is better. Just different circumstances.
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That's a poor analogy to make. Would be like saying mcdavid was slapping down boys while virtanen was slapping down men. Has no bearing on who is better just different circumstances.

The context was the implication that they are not that different in size:

At last year's draft combine both Nylander and Ehlers were measured at 5'11" and Virtanen was 6' 0.75".

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Virtanen is not safer than Nylander or Ehlers, and he was not last year either. Virtanen's comparables in terms of size, scoring, and age were not better than Nylander/Ehlers' comparables last year; both of the latter had cohorts who 1) made it to the NHL more frequently and 2) produced at a higher rate when they were there.

CanucksArmy did a piece on this before the draft last year:

http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/18/jake-virtanen-is-good-so-don-t-draft-him

But hindsight and a new system for measuring comparables makes their point absolutely clear:

http://canucksarmy.com/2015/6/19/benning-s-year-1-report-card-part-3-2014-draft-revisited

Do you want to know what's depressing? Virtanen's player cohort based on his performance this past year end up being NHLers with 200 games or more only 11% of the time, and even last year it was only 29%. That's not good enough for 6th overall. Meanwhile, Nylander's player cohort during his draft year had successful NHL careers 46% of the time, and this year that improved to 50%. Oh yeah, and his NHL comparables scored at 0.63 points per game.

So yeah, Virtanen was not safer, did not project better, and has not taken any steps forward to change that this past year. Instead, we got to watch Toronto draft Nylander and have him score at 0.86 ppg against men—AS AN 18 YEAR OLD.

I mean, best of luck to Virtanen. I badly want for him to succeed. But Benning dropped the ball big time on that 6th pick. We endured a terrible season in 2013-14 and, if we're very lucky, all we'll have to show for it is a scoring middle-6 winger instead of a potential 1C.

Interesting reads.

I sort of think they further prove my theory on JB though. The guy is old school. He talks a lot about getting character guys, still thinks the goalie is the most important position on a team and imo overvalues physicality. I've never once heard him say anything about analytics or advanced stats.

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Interesting reads.

I sort of think they further prove my theory on JB though. The guy is old school. He talks a lot about getting character guys, still thinks the goalie is the most important position on a team and imo overvalues physicality. I've never once heard him say anything about analytics or advanced stats.

Did Chicago LA Boston have the winning advanced stats?

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They aren't even close to Jake's size, and nowhere near his strength. Ehlers was constantly on the ice playing against boys while Virtanen was slapping down pros in the AHL playoffs.

And I guess Nylander was slapping around pros in the AHL this year while Virtanen was playing against boys in the WHL? Right? That is consistent with your argumentation.

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Interesting reads.

I sort of think they further prove my theory on JB though. The guy is old school. He talks a lot about getting character guys, still thinks the goalie is the most important position on a team and imo overvalues physicality. I've never once heard him say anything about analytics or advanced stats.

Ya, that is what I am afraid of too. He seems too old school and too unwilling to change. He trusts himself too much as opposed to the analytics philosophy that humans are fallible and that empirical evidence should lead to explanations and subsequent changes. It is not only what he says are his intentions/reasons, but it is also evident in his actions. I was hopeful after the Taven signing but nobody with who values analytics would have resigned Sbisa to that contract.

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Ya, that is what I am afraid of too. He seems too old school and too unwilling to change. He trusts himself too much as opposed to the analytics philosophy that humans are fallible and that empirical evidence should lead to explanations and subsequent changes. It is not only what he says are his intentions/reasons, but it is also evident in his actions. I was hopeful after the Taven signing but nobody with who values analytics would have resigned Sbisa to that contract.

I dont have much of a problem with Sbisa's contract. He's a top 4 D next year, plays physical and for one I actually like what he brings to the team. He makes mistakes but he does play with Bieksa

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