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The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread


Harvey Spector

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31 minutes ago, taxi said:

Unfortunately, the present conditions are only likely to further exacerbate affordability issues. Inflation, higher costs of living, higher mortgage rates, rising rents/Air BnB fees (more incentive for investors), a rising population, foreign investors fleeing China/Russia etc....

I agree.

 

Drastic steps to increase inventory is the only thing that I think can of to start a fix.  Where there is a will, there is a way. I don't know if there really is a will though.

My tinfoil hat always makes me believe that a lot of rich people have a lot of value in real estate. A lot of rich people are decision makers or influence decision makers. I dont think these people want to see their equity decrease.

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7 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

I agree.

 

Drastic steps to increase inventory is the only thing that I think can of to start a fix.  Where there is a will, there is a way. I don't know if there really is a will though.

My tinfoil hat always makes me believe that a lot of rich people have a lot of value in real estate. A lot of rich people are decision makers or influence decision makers. I dont think these people want to see their equity decrease.

If by "a lot of rich people", you mean almost the entire population of baby boomers, then yes, you are correct and its not a conspiracy theory, as its actually happening. There are a lot of people who already have ultra valuable properties who want to keep every city as their playground. They want inner cities in Canada to remain as sprawls of detached properties. 

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11 minutes ago, taxi said:

If by "a lot of rich people", you mean almost the entire population of baby boomers, then yes, you are correct and its not a conspiracy theory, as its actually happening. There are a lot of people who already have ultra valuable properties who want to keep every city as their playground. They want inner cities in Canada to remain as sprawls of detached properties. 

Sure, but specifically those that have influence. 

 

Eby has talked a big game but now he has the power I am not surprised that he seems underwhelming. Heck he might have even helped speculators...

Opinion piece...

https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/opinion-ebys-housing-plan-is-a-gift-to-speculators-5894893

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  • 2 weeks later...

Oh fun.

This is nice for home owners.  It's because they base the value on 6 months previous, back in July. ^_^

2023 BC Assessment preview says many properties to see increase in value

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/12/05/2023-bc-assessment-preview/

 

Also,

I have noticed in my area that new listings are way down.

Likely just the time of year but it makes you wonder... Sales are way down, so are people deciding not to list and wait it out? Or for landlords like myself deciding to hold, also wait it  out, and reap the very high rents that the low inventory is providing?

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

Oh fun.

This is nice for home owners.  It's because they base the value on 6 months previous, back in July. ^_^

2023 BC Assessment preview says many properties to see increase in value

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/12/05/2023-bc-assessment-preview/

 

Also,

I have noticed in my area that new listings are way down.

Likely just the time of year but it makes you wonder... Sales are way down, so are people deciding not to list and wait it out? Or for landlords like myself deciding to hold, also wait it  out, and reap the very high rents that the low inventory is providing?

 

 

Sales are not " way down" realistically. Sure, they are way down from 2021, but you can't compare 2021 to any other year in real estate history in BC.  It shattered allot of all time records for many markets in the province.  They have gone back to 2019 numbers . 

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32 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

Sales are not " way down" realistically. Sure, they are way down from 2021, but you can't compare 2021 to any other year in real estate history in BC.  It shattered allot of all time records for many markets in the province.  They have gone back to 2019 numbers . 

and 2019 numbers are still seeing housing prices 30% higher or so than they were in 2018

 

Kind of insane to think that for housing in BC to be affordable with the average wage rates, that it would need to fall back to pre 2010 levels.

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15 hours ago, cuporbust said:

Sales are not " way down" realistically. Sure, they are way down from 2021, but you can't compare 2021 to any other year in real estate history in BC.  It shattered allot of all time records for many markets in the province.  They have gone back to 2019 numbers . 

Actually, November sales were at their lowest since 2008, when the financial crisis hit and banks went under...

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14 hours ago, Warhippy said:

and 2019 numbers are still seeing housing prices 30% higher or so than they were in 2018

 

Kind of insane to think that for housing in BC to be affordable with the average wage rates, that it would need to fall back to pre 2010 levels.

The last time a detached home was under $1 million was the end of 2014, so 8 years ago.  Since then, they peaked at $2 million in February of this year.  They are back down to just under $1.7 million now.  So, a 15% drop in less than a year.  To get back to the 2014 levels they'd need to go down another 40% or so.

 

I doubt that happens, but we can possibly see another 10% before this is over.  2023 will be an interesting year in real estate.  No foreign buyers, first time home buyers will be tight on their budgets with the higher interest rates and investors might wait for the bottom to hit before going back in.  

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On 12/12/2022 at 6:34 PM, bishopshodan said:

Oh fun.

This is nice for home owners.  It's because they base the value on 6 months previous, back in July. ^_^

2023 BC Assessment preview says many properties to see increase in value

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/12/05/2023-bc-assessment-preview/

 

Also,

I have noticed in my area that new listings are way down.

Likely just the time of year but it makes you wonder... Sales are way down, so are people deciding not to list and wait it out? Or for landlords like myself deciding to hold, also wait it  out, and reap the very high rents that the low inventory is providing?

 

 

Lack of supply. 

 

Realistically there's no way to make housing affordable with such a massive shortage of it. 

 

And as you say, with so many people in it for the investment now, there's no incentive to sell until interest rates are back in check and prices begin to swing back up. As a landlord, investors can just sit back and collect their high rent or Air BnB.

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  • 3 weeks later...

B.C. government increases homeowner grant limit as home values rise by 12 per cent (msn.com)

 

B.C. government increases homeowner grant limit as home values rise by 12 per cent

 

The British Columbia government is boosting the homeowner grant threshold to $2.125 million for this year as average property values increase by 12 per cent. 

 

The government says in a statement that resetting the threshold from $1.975 million means about 92 per cent of residential properties will be eligible for the grant, which reduces property tax on a principal residence. 

 

The basic grant for those who live in their homes in Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Capital Regional District is $570 and as much as $845 for those over 65, who are veterans or who have a disability.

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https://realestatemagazine.ca/deepest-decline-in-home-prices-expected-in-q1-2023-royal-lepage/

 

Deepest decline in home prices expected in Q1 2023: Royal LePage

 

According to Royal LePage, Canada’s national aggregate home price will end 2023 one per cent below the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022. 

 

Based on the data shared in the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, double-digit year-over-year declines are expected in the first quarter of 2023, with modest quarterly price growth in the year’s second half. 

 

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, Royal LePage expects prices to flatten in the second quarter and begin modest improvement in the second half of the year, ending 2023 on an upward trajectory.

 

Condos expected to outperform homes in most major markets

 

Condominium prices are expected to outperform single-family homes in all major markets except for Edmonton and Winnipeg.

 

The greater regions of Toronto and Montreal are forecast to see an aggregate price decline of two per cent year-over-year in Q4 next year, while the aggregate home price in Greater Vancouver is projected to dip one per cent year-over-year.

 

Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, said, “the frenzied housing market overshot, and the inevitable downward slide or market correction began, intensified by rapidly rising borrowing rates…While the volume of homes trading hands has dropped steeply, home prices have held on, with relatively modest declines.” 

 

Soper also points out that there are a number of factors supporting home prices in the current environment, such as the long-term housing supply shortage in Canada and pent-up demand from buyers who have the ability to transact but have chosen not to in these turbulent times.

 

Progressively less price declines

 

“Comparing prices to the previous year, the first quarter of 2023 should show the deepest decline in home values,” said Soper. “At that time, we will be comparing 2022’s final weeks of pandemic housing market excess – when home prices reached historically high levels – to a much quieter market, where values have had a full year to moderate.”

Soper expects year-over-year comparisons to show progressively less price decline as the year progresses, with small week-to-week improvements in the third and fourth quarters, allowing Canadian home values to end 2023 essentially flat to where we are today.

 

While home prices have come down from the record highs recorded in the first half of this year, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels. 

 

Royal LePage’s projected aggregate price of a home in Canada in Q4 of 2023 is expected to sit 15 per cent above Q4 of 2020 and 18.4 per cent above Q4 of 2019.

 

Source: Royal LePage

 

Market summaries 

 

Greater Vancouver

 

In Greater Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home is expected to decrease one per cent year-over-year to $1,216,611 in Q4 of 2023.

 

The median price of a single-family detached property is expected to decline two per cent to $1,644,538, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase one per cent to $747,299. 

 

Despite a decrease in demand in the second half of 2022, a lack of available inventory has kept prices from declining further. If activity picks up in the new year as expected, Royal LePage expects tight competition will challenge buyers.

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I've noticed, in my area of central Island, that listings of certain property types seem way down.

I'm not sure if its not just the time of the year.

 

Last year around the time of peak prices, there was quite a few 5 acre parcels with homes in the 1 - 1.2 mil range. My friend was casually looking but waited because he thought prices would come down. Technically they have but ,as I mention, there is hardly any inventory. No options and my buddy is now bummed. 

 

My neighbourhood has dried up too for listings (detached on lots). About 6 months ago there was a dozen or so. This morning there is 3.

 

I am curious where it will go. Are people thinking that since sales are down and prices reducing somewhat that they are set to wait it out? At the end of the day they live on VI in beautiful BC. Not a bad place to be. 

 

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On 1/11/2023 at 7:57 AM, bishopshodan said:

I've noticed, in my area of central Island, that listings of certain property types seem way down.

I'm not sure if its not just the time of the year.

 

Last year around the time of peak prices, there was quite a few 5 acre parcels with homes in the 1 - 1.2 mil range. My friend was casually looking but waited because he thought prices would come down. Technically they have but ,as I mention, there is hardly any inventory. No options and my buddy is now bummed. 

 

My neighbourhood has dried up too for listings (detached on lots). About 6 months ago there was a dozen or so. This morning there is 3.

 

I am curious where it will go. Are people thinking that since sales are down and prices reducing somewhat that they are set to wait it out? At the end of the day they live on VI in beautiful BC. Not a bad place to be. 

 

Listings are almost always at their lowest level of the year in January, while March, April and May are the months that see the most listings come onto the market.

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11 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

Listings are almost always at their lowest level of the year in January, while March, April and May are the months that see the most listings come onto the market.

Yes.

However i spoke with my realtor lastnight and he confirmed that listing are down in my area, even for this time of year.

 

I have a property listed, I should keep it but I dont feel like doing the renos. Now that xmas is over we are starting to get some interest. I'm not budging on price though, I dont care if it sells. Meanwhile, a friend has a Burnaby apt listed for 1mil, after low interest for months, he has 4 showings today alone.  

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  • 1 month later...

What advice would I give to first-time home buyers? Depending on your area, search for any permits pulled on the house for construction. This is all public record. When I worked on my old house renovation I checked a lot of articles to find useful info. I decided to use interior design rendering services from Fortes Vision to do 3D visualization and see the final result and save my time and money. It was the right decision, it's useful service for interior design. They can create a high-quality visual presentation with the most realistic effects, including the smallest elements.

Edited by WilliG
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