Italy election: Exit polls indicate big gains for populist and far-right parties – but with no clear winner

[Ryan Strome]

Italy’s general election is likely to lead to a hung parliament, according to exit polls, meaning there is the potential for weeks of talks to form a new government.

However, one thing is clear: populist parties are making big gains amid distrust of the establishment powers. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) is expected to become the single biggest party, with projections giving it around 30 per cent of the vote. But a right-wing coalition, spearheaded by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, is projected to win the most seats in parliament though fall short of the numbers needed for an absolute majority.

One exit poll by Italy’s RAI state TV put the M5S with between 29.5 per cent and 32.5 per cent of Sunday’s vote. Mr Berlusconi’s centre-right Forza Italia and the anti-immigrant party the League (La Lega) each were polling at between 12.5 per cent and 15.5 per cent. They are running as part of a centre-right coalition, which was expected to gather between 33 per cent to 36 per cent of the vote, short of the 40 per cent analysts have said is the minimum needed to secure a majority under Italy’s new electoral law.

 

Mr Berlusconi – who cannot currently hold public office thanks to a tax fraud conviction – had placed the migrant crisis Italy has faced in recent years at the centre of the campaign he has led.

 

 

The ruling centre-left Democratic Party (PD), led by another former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, is set to gather between 20 per cent and 23 per cent of the vote, according to the exit poll, with a centre-left coalition gaining 25 to 28 per cent. Along with the exit poll for Mr Berlusconi’s coalition – made up of his own party Forza Italia, the League and the far-right Brothers of Italy – such a result would be a blow to the Italian establishment parties.

“If this is the result, for us it is a defeat and we will move into the opposition,” said Ettore Rosato, leader of the lower chamber of parliament for PD, according to local media.

Mr Berlusconi may yet find his coalition actually reaches 40 per cent of the vote with full results not expected until Monday morning, and Italian exit polls having previously given misleading initial readings. The same could be said for M5S, but it is the sense of distrust in the status quo that is the first clear trend.

 

The result forecast for the M5S, led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, would be a quite a result for a group formed less than a decade ago. The party has made big strides with voters sick of the political norm through its hardline stance on corruption, and it has fed off public resentment about economic hardship across the country with election pledges such as a universal basic income. But the party has also gained a reputation for flip-flopping on issues.

 

Both the M5S and the League were said to have beaten expectations in the early vote count for the upper chamber of the parliament, the Senate.

Previous elections in 2013 led to a long-frozen political standoff, and dissatisfaction with the central government in Rome smoulders. “The least bad choice is the best,” a middle-aged couple said before entering a polling station in Rome, summing up the mood.

Italians trust the Pope more than they trust parliament or political parties: a recent Demos survey found that 77 per cent of people trust Pope Francis, 19 per cent trust “the State” and only 11 per cent have confidence in parliament. Asked about “political parties”, that trust slipped to just 5 per cent.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/italy-election-today-2018-vote-polls-rome-berlusconi-result-when-latest-a8239246.html?amp

[Sweathog]

This seemingly growing populist movement is disturbing. I don't like any kind of extremism, whether it's on the left or right.

[thedestroyerofworlds]

Last Sunday on Last Week Tonight there was a segment on the Italian election. If anyone is interested. 

[Ryan Strome]

 I keep hearing Berlusconis party will lead a coalition but apparently he isn't allowed to hold public office until next year or something.

[CBH1926]

Germany, Austria, Hungary, Italy, Czech Republic etc. populism is rising.

[Ryan Strome]

1 minute ago, CBH1926 said:

Germany, Austria, Hungary, Italy, Czech Republic etc. populism is rising.

I think Poland as well. The fact it's rising in Germany may scare a few countries. The EU is a complete disaster for many countries. Greece, Italy, Spain, UK, etc.

[CBH1926]

12 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

I think Poland as well. The fact it's rising in Germany may scare a few countries. The EU is a complete disaster for many countries. Greece, Italy, Spain, UK, etc.

Problem with Europe is that it is either too far left or too far right.

It is hard to find middle ground.

[logic]

33 minutes ago, CBH1926 said:

Germany, Austria, Hungary, Italy, Czech Republic etc. populism is rising.

People are sick of being forced to be "progressive", Political correctness has gone way to far. It does not surprise me to see these movements happening right now

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, logic said:

People are sick of being forced to be "progressive", Political correctness has gone way to far. It does not surprise me to see these movements happening right now

It’s about rising living costs for the hard working.  We the common hard working people are paying for the free loaders and we don’t want to do that.  It’s happening all across Europe, and it will happen here.  We can no longer afford to pay for free loaders.

[logic]

Just now, Alflives said:

It’s about rising living costs for the hard working.  We the common hard working people are paying for the free loaders and we don’t want to do that.  It’s happening all across Europe, and it will happen here.  We can no longer afford to pay for free loaders.

That is also a big part of it,  but nowadays you're a racist if you say you don't want millions of refugees flooded into Canada

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, logic said:

That is also a big part of it,  but nowadays you're a racist if you say you don't want millions of refugees flooded into Canada

It’s not about anything but affordability.  We can afford the costs.  People are all taxed out, and want the fee loaders to either get jobs, and contribute, or no longer get free EVERYTHING!

[48MPHSlapShot]

26 minutes ago, logic said:

That is also a big part of it,  but nowadays you're a racist if you say you don't want millions of refugees flooded into Canada

I can guarantee that one of the usual suspects is going to imply that you're a racist for saying this, and that the irony will be completely lost on them.

[Ryan Strome]

Btw if I'm understanding this correct Italy elects their senators? What a joke they need to be more democratic like Canada and have senators appointed by the government of the day. 

[brownky]

2 hours ago, Sweathog said:

This seemingly growing populist movement is disturbing. I don't like any kind of extremism, whether it's on the left or right.

I believe a significant part of the problem is how pushy the "globalist" (for lack of a better term) are at trying to run how people say and do things. You can't say this, you can't do this - Trying to control how people act is authoritarian be it 'right or left'. As a result, the snowflake movement is seeing a lot of pushback from those who have had enough.

 

When your own voice is being ignored, you tend to drift in the direction most opposite to the cause of *being* ignored. In this case, the never-offend-anybody people are pushing otherwise well-meaning folks who just want to live in the direction of the more extreme right, just to make it stop.

 

Which results in both sides getting more extreme. I notice it creeping into my own life, more and more. Cesspools of online comments, facebook echo chambers. People believing lies from both sides.

 

It's a toilet and it's only going to get worse and eventually end badly. Worse still, I have absolutely no idea if there's any way off Mr. Bones wild ride.

[nucklehead]

i'll go out on a short limb and say berlusconi  in a squeaker

[luckylager]

2 hours ago, logic said:

That is also a big part of it,  but nowadays you're a racist if you say you don't want millions of refugees flooded into Canada

So by your logic- refugees are freeloaders? "Millions" eh. Nice number you decided to just make up.

 

1 hour ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

I can guarantee that one of the usual suspects is going to imply that you're a racist for saying this, and that the irony will be completely lost on them.

What irony? Alf says "freeloaders" and logic goes straight to "Millions of refugees". Totally &^@#ing racist. But hey, if there's a war in Ireland we'll bring em in with parades!

Welcome to Canada you lazy drunk bastards, we love Guiness!

 

The immigrants I've encountered and known over the years came here to work and make a better life, not sit around on the dole poking needles in their arms waiting for a handout. Or stealing your car, breaking into your house etc...

[CaptainLinden16]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

It’s about rising living costs for the hard working.  We the common hard working people are paying for the free loaders and we don’t want to do that.  It’s happening all across Europe, and it will happen here.  We can no longer afford to pay for free loaders.

Nationalist/Populist movements always the same.  They are framed as an "Us" vs "Them" dynamic.  "America First", "Brexit", etc...

 

The world is very large place with many statistical outliers.  In a country of over 30 million you will find many people who free load the system but that doesn't mean the average immigrant does.  The few visceral examples of people who do free load the system get all the old white people really jacked up.  I mean really jacked up.

 

The average immigrant is more likely to start a business, a lot of them have higher degrees, and in every top 30 economy they are a net positive to the economy tax receipts versus social benefits.  I mean think about it. You like your family, home, and friends right?  Why would you leave to a place where you may not speak the language, there maybe some hostility from the local population toward immigrants, little to no family or friends, different food, different traditions, different weather, different everything hahahaha.  Why does that person think to themselves oh mean wouldn't it be sweet to live off of government subsidized lifestyle!  I mean really?  just imagine if you had to move to Paris tomorrow because there was a civil war in Western Canada.  You definitely would be like man its going to be sweet to Mooch of that government!

 

The main problem is that the modern economy doesn't find blue collar skill sets useful anymore.  Now that's sad I guess as there is a lot of nostalgia about elbow grease and boot straps and whatnot, but its just the truth.  Blue collar workers are widgets, and the widgets are much cheaper in Southeast Asia and maybe now even Africa.  That displacement makes natives (old white people) even more upset about loosing their jobs to foreigners oversees.

 

Change is a difficult thing.  Some people genetically are not meant to adapt.  Some people are too old to adapt.  But the world has moved from horse and bugey to self-driving vehicles and airplanes.  Change is the only certainty. 

 

The demographics of Western European countries are horrifying.  You cant pay pensions out if there are no young people to pay into them.  Birthrates are in steep decline, so you NEEEEEEEEEEEED immigration; otherwise a system of deferred benefits is going to absolutely collapse.

 

Everything is about where you get your news from.  Pickup a copy of the Economist (conservative journal) and stop watching emotional news cast about immigrants stealing our Cuuuuuntry and our Juuuuubs!

[Sweathog]

1 hour ago, brownky said:

I believe a significant part of the problem is how pushy the "globalist" (for lack of a better term) are at trying to run how people say and do things. You can't say this, you can't do this - Trying to control how people act is authoritarian be it 'right or left'. As a result, the snowflake movement is seeing a lot of pushback from those who have had enough.

 

When your own voice is being ignored, you tend to drift in the direction most opposite to the cause of *being* ignored. In this case, the never-offend-anybody people are pushing otherwise well-meaning folks who just want to live in the direction of the more extreme right, just to make it stop.

 

Which results in both sides getting more extreme. I notice it creeping into my own life, more and more. Cesspools of online comments, facebook echo chambers. People believing lies from both sides.

 

It's a toilet and it's only going to get worse and eventually end badly. Worse still, I have absolutely no idea if there's any way off Mr. Bones wild ride.

I agree. This increasing polarization of people when it comes to political views is very problematic in my opinion.

 

It's amazing to me that someone like Steven Pinker, who is definitely left-wing, be labeled as "alt-right" for criticizing the methodology (not even the ideology) of the far left. Likewise for some in the far right, who put moderate conservatives in the "commie" category for daring to not agree with them about everything.

 

As far as I can tell, it's not even the ideologies that's the problem right now, it's this increasing unwillingness of some people to not even listen to (let alone acknowledge) valid points from people with differing views. If that doesn't change quickly, I think civil discourse between these groups could be finished.

[Lancaster]

2 minutes ago, luckylager said:

So by your logic- refugees are freeloaders? "Millions" eh. Nice number you decided to just make up.

 

What irony? Alf says "freeloaders" and logic goes straight to "Millions of refugees". Totally &^@#ing racist. But hey, if there's a war in Ireland we'll bring em in with parades!

Welcome to Canada you lazy drunk bastards, we love Guiness!

 

The immigrants I've encountered and known over the years came here to work and make a better life, not sit around on the dole poking needles in their arms waiting for a handout. Or stealing your car, breaking into your house etc...

Legal immigrants are always welcomed.  Those who come to Canada (or whatever country) with a useful skill, wishes to integrate with the people, etc..... I don't think anyone really ever have an issue with them.  Refugees facing active discrimination, escaping from actual threats due to orientation, religion, ethnicity, etc.... I'm pretty sure most people will welcome them.

 

But there seems to be a large amount of people, especially happening in Europe, who are coming in without any useful skills, choosing to remain segregated, not respecting the rule of law, and are just claiming refugee status simply because their homeland sucks (not being persecuted or anything like actual refugees).... those are what many people are against.

[luckylager]

2 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Legal immigrants are always welcomed.  Those who come to Canada (or whatever country) with a useful skill, wishes to integrate with the people, etc..... I don't think anyone really ever have an issue with them.  Refugees facing active discrimination, escaping from actual threats due to orientation, religion, ethnicity, etc.... I'm pretty sure most people will welcome them.

 

But there seems to be a large amount of people, especially happening in Europe, who are coming in without any useful skills, choosing to remain segregated, not respecting the rule of law, and are just claiming refugee status simply because their homeland sucks (not being persecuted or anything like actual refugees).... those are what many people are against.

For sure.

Europe got caught in a major flood and many of that wave apparently have no desire to be a part of, or contribute to the country they sought refuge in.  Very problematic indeed. Tough problem to solve once you've already granted ne'erdowells status. I don't see Us encountering such an issue here.