[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[RakuRaku]

Are ppl still debating whether we have overpaid in this deal???

 

In JT Miller, we'll probably get 25+ goals as expected... unlikely to hit the wall and turn out to be another Loui Eriksson... 

 

The 1st round pick given up however may turn out to be a total bust! 

 

Which has a higher probability?

[Silver Ghost]

10 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Well I don't think its as simple as saying they could've traded anyone.

 

McDonagh & Hedman are the only big tickets on the backend & they weren't moving them. They weren't moving Palat, Stamkos, Kucherov or Groude (after recently re-signing him). Maybe they could've tried to move Johnson or Killorn, but those guys make less then Miller, fill a similar role & have been more productive for them long term than JT Miller. 

 

If Miller was coming off a 58 point season & they didn't need to move him maybe. I think they got pretty good value though. 1st & a high-ish 3rd is a pretty good return. I'd say considering circumstances its atleast a triple with potential to become a grand slam. 

 

The piece coming back is good for both sides, Miller will make us better. But Tampa definitely did a wonderful job here too managing there assets, under some pressure. 

 

I didn't say they were going to trade core players lol. 

 

They could have traded pretty much anyone other than their core group that had a bigger cap hit to achieve a similar result. They chose a guy thaf could get them a reasonable return that was reasonably expendable to their team. Notice i saud TO THEIR TEAM. Doesnt make him an expendable or throwaway player. I am positive the Lightning wish they could have kept him. 

 

A heavily conditioned 1st and a pretty meh 3rd  and contract spot throw in goalie is reasonable value but not a grand slam at all unless that pick turns out to be a high lottery pick. Even if it does, its potentially 3 seasons at best before they realize anything on it. 

 

Its agood trade for both teams. Sometimes both teams can get what they need and live with what they had to give up to get it. Thats the case here. 

[The Lock]

7 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

That the trade deadline is a totally different beast. Not totally comparable to deals made in the summer.

I honestly don't see how you've proven that. You've given me a couple of bad trades that happened at the deadline and called it a day even though there are similar trades that happen during the summer. I think they are comparable since there can be pressure (or a lack thereof) at either the deadline or whenever. It's all situational, from the situation of each team to how well GMs handle pressure. I just don't see how it's that different between the deadline and the summer when there are so many more factors involved.

 

Basically, I think you're trying to oversimplify something that shouldn't be oversimplified.

Edited June 25, 2019 by The Lock

[Smashian Kassian]

Just now, The Lock said:

I honestly don't see how you've proven that. You've given me a couple of bad trades that happened at the deadline and called it a day even though there are similar trades that happen during the summer. I think they are perfectly comparable since there are be pressure (or a lack thereof) at either the deadline or whenever. It's all situational, from the situation of each team to how well GMs handle pressure. I just don't see how it's that different between the deadline and the summer when there are so many more factors involved.

 

Basically, I think you're trying to oversimplify something that shouldn't be oversimplified.

 

Which is why 'isn't totally comparable'. Yes the trades I brought up where bad, you can bring up examples the other way and do the same thing.

 

The deadline is different because teams have an extremely short window to make a decision & the options available are far more scarce. In the summer its alot more wide open.

 

Its situational for sure. But to me the deadline is the craziest time of the year involving trades, can't just go off deadline trades as in comparing values because 1) teams are more inclined to pay a premium, and 2) its playoff teams that pick later in the draft making these moves to go all-in. 

 

As you say with it being "situational" I don't see how what the Canucks did as akin to a contending team loading up for a big playoff run.

 

 

[Smashian Kassian]

8 minutes ago, Silver Ghost said:

I didn't say they were going to trade core players lol. 

 

They could have traded pretty much anyone other than their core group that had a bigger cap hit to achieve a similar result. They chose a guy thaf could get them a reasonable return that was reasonably expendable to their team. Notice i saud TO THEIR TEAM. Doesnt make him an expendable or throwaway player. I am positive the Lightning wish they could have kept him. 

 

A heavily conditioned 1st and a pretty meh 3rd  and contract spot throw in goalie is reasonable value but not a grand slam at all unless that pick turns out to be a high lottery pick. Even if it does, its potentially 3 seasons at best before they realize anything on it. 

 

Its agood trade for both teams. Sometimes both teams can get what they need and live with what they had to give up to get it. Thats the case here. 

I agree. It was fair value both ways as long as we make playoffs in the next 2 years.

 

I think for Tampa its a really nice piece of business, if it was my team I'd be overjoyed. And for the Canucks I think its a great addition that signals this organization wants to go for it now, which is also exciting.

 

Thank you for being reasonable. Lol

 

 

[coryberg]

11 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

That the trade deadline is a totally different beast. Not totally comparable to deals made in the summer.

The Ballard trade was at the draft. We held off until pick 25 came up. When our guy was off the board we gave the Panthers the great honor of taking Quinton Howden.

[The Lock]

5 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Which is why 'isn't totally comparable'. Yes the trades I brought up where bad, you can bring up examples the other way and do the same thing.

 

The deadline is different because teams have an extremely short window to make a decision & the options available are far more scarce. In the summer its alot more wide open.

 

Its situational for sure. But to me the deadline is the craziest time of the year involving trades, can't just go off deadline trades as in comparing values because 1) teams are more inclined to pay a premium, and 2) its playoff teams that pick later in the draft making these moves to go all-in. 

 

As you say with it being "situational" I don't see how what the Canucks did as akin to a contending team loading up for a big playoff run.

I could argue that there's not necessarily a lot of time between the stanley cup, the draft, and free agency. There's pressure there too. I mean look at Toronto and the Marleau trade. If that's not pressure I don't know what is. lol

 

It's funny you mention your side of it because I tend to find the trade deadlines underwhelming. Maybe it's because of the media over-hyping it all, but usually the GM's have a month or 2 up until the deadline to make decisions. Sure, there's the teams that need to decide if they are buying and selling, but how it that any different in terms of pressure to make certain trades at the draft or before free agency?

 

I think there's pressure in general, no matter the time of year. For some GM's even August might be pressure when they have arbitration and guys they haven't signed yet. lol

Edited June 25, 2019 by The Lock

[Silver Ghost]

3 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

I agree. It was fair value both ways as long as we make playoffs in the next 2 years.

 

I think for Tampa its a really nice piece of business, if it was my team I'd be overjoyed. And for the Canucks I think its a great addition that signals this organization wants to go for it now, which is also exciting.

 

Thank you for being reasonable. Lol

 

 

I feel confident that the Canucks will be a playoff team in that time frame. So obviously I look at ths trade through that lens. The real risk to the Canucks, imho, is tying up 2 years of 1st round picks when 1 could have been used for a top dman. But the condition had to be this way or the risk would be all on the result of 1 year. 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Silver Ghost

[Smashian Kassian]

Just now, coryberg said:

The Ballard trade was at the draft. We held off until pick 25 came up. When our guy was off the board we gave the Panthers the great honor of taking Quinton Howden.

That's the 25th pick though. That was a division winning team. Hey, If this pick we're giving up is #25 then I'll totally agree the trade is a "discount".

 

 

And speaking of that draft deal. I remember some speculation our guy was Jarred Tinordi. Wouldn't have helped us anymore than Ballard. I remember being more unhappy about Grabner going than the pick since it was so late, but that's the price for what we thought would be a legit top 4 D.

 

Too bad the Russian factor was such a big thing at the time, believe Kuznetsov went not too far after. That's a young gun we could've used after 2011, but alas. Could spend all day going back over Canucks draft misses.  

 

Atleast we aren't afraid of Ruskies now with Podkolzin.

[The Lock]

1 minute ago, Silver Ghost said:

I feel confident that the Canucks will be a playoff team in that time frame. So obviously I look at ths trade through that lens. The real risk to the Canucks, imho, is tying up 2 years of 1st round picks when 1 could have been used for a top dman. But the condition had to be this way or the risk would be all on the result of 1 year. 

 

My ideal situation (and CDC would be bonkers for a year or so if this happened) would be for us to still be in the lottery next year for the deep draft and then make the playoffs the year after. Even barely missing the playoffs could mean we get a good player. Selfish of me? Perhaps.

[iceman64]

On ‎6‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 1:30 PM, CaptainLinden16 said:

I think people on here fail to see how little value Hutton, Tanev, Stecher, Sutter, Baertschi, etc have in a trade.  You can't get a top 4 RHD for these kinds of players even if you spit ball them all together in one massive 7 for 1 trade.  

Are you on drugs? lmao... 

[Smashian Kassian]

3 minutes ago, The Lock said:

I could argue that there's not necessarily a lot of time between the stanley cup, the draft, and free agency. There's pressure there too. I mean look at Toronto and the Marleau trade. If that's not pressure I don't know what is. lol

 

It's funny you mention your side of it because I tend to find the trade deadlines underwhelming. Maybe it's because of the media over-hyping it all, but usually the GM's have a month or 2 up until the deadline to make decisions. Sure, there's the teams that need to decide if they are buying and selling, but how it that any different in terms of pressure to make certain trades at the draft or before free agency?

 

I think there's pressure in general, no matter the time of year. For some GM's even August might be pressure when they have arbitration and guys they haven't signed yet. lol

 

Yeah it definitely seems like the draft is when big trades go down now, which is ironic since nothing happened on day 1. Lol

 

There's definitely pressure year round, I just think the TDL is generally a different beast. When teams feel they can go for it they aren't afraid to really pony up. But nowadays the cap has complicated it so much. Really changed the dynamic of the TDL as you say.

 

I'd agree with you, one way or another there can be pressure year round.

 

I'm sure the GM's don't ever feel relaxed going into work. Unless its the day after you won the cup. Lol

 

 

2 minutes ago, Silver Ghost said:

I feel confident that the Canucks will be a playoff team in that time frame. So obviously I look at ths trade through that lens. The real risk to the Canucks, imho, is tying up 2 years of 1st round picks when 1 could have been used for a top dman. But the condition had to be this way or the risk would be all on the result of 1 year. 

 

 

Yeah this condition is the silver lining for people like me who have been critical of the move. There's obviously a much greater probability of making it in the next two years than just having to make it next year.

 

And its nice with next year being a strong draft, even if we narrowly miss & pick 12-15 both years, there'll probably be a better player available for us next year than 2021. Which I'm happy about as a draft guy. 

 

Some speculation that Colorado wanted the pick without conditions for Barrie, in which case I'm glad we made this move. Though I'd agree the pick would've been best served on a good D. 

[iceman64]

12 minutes ago, Silver Ghost said:

I feel confident that the Canucks will be a playoff team in that time frame. So obviously I look at ths trade through that lens. The real risk to the Canucks, imho, is tying up 2 years of 1st round picks when 1 could have been used for a top dman. But the condition had to be this way or the risk would be all on the result of 1 year. 

 

Ummmm who is willing to trade a top 4 D for a draft pick?  think about it, getting in the playoffs means having 2 top pairings who can consistently shut down potent offenses or slow them down for your snipers to win it...  how easy do you think you'd let go of one?  unless the circumstances were perfectly right, not very I imagine... and even worse, there's no guarantee in drafts, from 3rd overall on down is a crap shoot usually... and since when would JB turn down a trade to get a top 4 D if one was available for the right price? 

[Silver Ghost]

32 minutes ago, iceman64 said:

Ummmm who is willing to trade a top 4 D for a draft pick?  think about it, getting in the playoffs means having 2 top pairings who can consistently shut down potent offenses or slow them down for your snipers to win it...  how easy do you think you'd let go of one?  unless the circumstances were perfectly right, not very I imagine... and even worse, there's no guarantee in drafts, from 3rd overall on down is a crap shoot usually... and since when would JB turn down a trade to get a top 4 D if one was available for the right price? 

What the heck does any of this have to do with my post?

 

I meant in a package trade, not just a draft pick btw.

 

Dmen are more coveted but are traded all the time. Trouba and Subban being recent examples of top 4 D who have been traded, so not sure the "top 4 D are untouchable" opinion holds any water. 

 

Getting in the playoffs takes a lot of things going your way. 

[filthycanuck]

2 hours ago, Virtanen#18 said:

Are ppl still debating whether we have overpaid in this deal???

 

In JT Miller, we'll probably get 25+ goals as expected... unlikely to hit the wall and turn out to be another Loui Eriksson... 

 

The 1st round pick given up however may turn out to be a total bust! 

 

Which has a higher probability?

JT Miller is a pretty good player on a VERY good contract. Trust me I've tried to spin this deal to find some sort of rationale to make this deal look good for us. I've compared to to Michael Ferland whos probably going to get 5.5 on the open market, whos older by a year with lower stats, and the fact JT Miller is has 4 more years, and forseeably be the insurance policy for Tanner Pearson who at the rate was going last year is going to command a lot of money once his contract is done. Is JT Miller a 1st and a 3rd, maybe, maybe not. If he gets 25 goals and 65 pts or more, its it can justify the trade somewhat, playoffs or not.

 

The REAL problem is the circumstances of how the deal went down. TB is CLEARLY needing to dump salary and JB being a fool that he is jumped the gun and offered up assets on a player that was clearly expendable. If the JT Miller was aquired from a team NOT in a cap crunch, lets just say the Hurricanes, Im not sure people would be so up and arms of the trade, is it overpayment? Maybe, but thats the cost of doing business. We've tried value picks for potential top 6 wingers and never worked out for the most part. You have to trade quality to get quality. Part of being a GM is not only drafting players but also needing to be a salesman, a negotiatior and Jim has clearly failed on that one in the JT MIller trade. IIts like going to BestBuy to buy a TV for full retail, not knowing that Walmart in the other end of the mall was selling the same thing for %75 off, wouldn't you at least scout around, looking for the best deal or at least price match. Thats the problem I have in the deal because Benning didn't leverage the fact that TB was in a cap crunch. They needed us more than we needed them and we shoudve taken advantaged of it

[Silver Ghost]

14 minutes ago, filthycanuck said:

JT Miller is a pretty good player on a VERY good contract. Trust me I've tried to spin this deal to find some sort of rationale to make this deal look good for us. I've compared to to Michael Ferland whos probably going to get 5.5 on the open market, whos older by a year with lower stats, and the fact JT Miller is has 4 more years, and forseeably be the insurance policy for Tanner Pearson who at the rate was going last year is going to command a lot of money once his contract is done. Is JT Miller a 1st and a 3rd, maybe, maybe not. If he gets 25 goals and 65 pts or more, its it can justify the trade somewhat, playoffs or not.

 

The REAL problem is the circumstances of how the deal went down. TB is CLEARLY needing to dump salary and JB being a fool that he is jumped the gun and offered up assets on a player that was clearly expendable. If the JT Miller was aquired from a team NOT in a cap crunch, lets just say the Hurricanes, Im not sure people would be so up and arms of the trade, is it overpayment? Maybe, but thats the cost of doing business. We've tried value picks for potential top 6 wingers and never worked out for the most part. You have to trade quality to get quality. Part of being a GM is not only drafting players but also needing to be a salesman, a negotiatior and Jim has clearly failed on that one in the JT MIller trade. IIts like going to BestBuy to buy a TV for full retail, not knowing that Walmart in the other end of the mall was selling the same thing for %75 off, wouldn't you at least scout around, looking for the best deal or at least price match. Thats the problem I have in the deal because Benning didn't leverage the fact that TB was in a cap crunch. They needed us more than we needed them and we shoudve taken advantaged of it

Tampa was not in nearly as much of a cap crunch after the Callahan development though. They clearly looked to move a player that could get them a good asset while still relieving cap. Thats a different situation than say the Marleau cap dump where TO was conpletely at the mercy of other teams for a player no one would pay assets for. 

 

JT Miller as an available player absolutely would have had competitive offers from other GM's. Benning did not likely have as much leverage or room for error in offering for him.

 

If he gets 25 goals and 65 points its a huge win for the canucks. The only thing that would diminish that is the 1st becoming a high 1st when the time comes. 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Silver Ghost

[JeremyCuddles]

CDC: Can't say it's a good deal cause we don't know where the pick will be

 

Also CDC: REBUILDING TEAM GAVE AWAY A TOP 10 PICK, WE ARE OTTAWA 

 

If we can't call it a good deal without knowing what the pick will be you also shouldn't have a panic attack about the draft pick without knowing where it'll be. We aren't at the beginning of the rebuild with our 3rd best prospect being Cole Cassels. We have a good foundation in place that needs a good surrounding cast. The last 3 seasons has seen us slowly get better and better and the teams around us get worse and worse. The last 3 seasons the team had 69 points, 71 points, and 81 points.

 

If the Canucks are stock it's been on the rise steadily. This team will look better than last season's opening night roster and they were close to the playoffs. And that's not even factoring who we may or may not get this offseason. Juolevi's development is another wild card. If you aren't seeing the light at the end of the tunnel it's cause you refuse to open your eyes and/or are afraid of this team actually being good.

[Phat Fingers]

9 hours ago, gerry35 said:

I will never look at anything that poser Yost writes or watch Steve Dangle either fwiw.

Dangle is fun.   He made a career for himself and isn't taking himself too seriously.  Yost is just an idiot.

[Phat Fingers]

4 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Brayden Point just scored 41 goals & 92 points. Callahan's 5.8 was not going to get it done. 

 

That the trade deadline is a totally different beast. Not totally comparable to deals made in the summer.

 

 

LOL. Have you watched this team play hockey the last 4 years.

 

JT Miller alone doesn't make them a playoff team, at the point of making the trade it wasn't a playoff team. They've picked top 10 the last 4 years, that's what we have to go off in judging where the draft pick could end up.

 

Are we going to take a step this year? Yes, I'm expecting so. Doesn't guarantee playoffs though, and it doesn't guarantee that this is a mid/late pick we're giving up.

 

 

The 'conditional' doesn't mean F-All. Its a 1st no matter what.

 

Again, how can we say its a discount when you don't know where that pick ends up. There's this assumption that the pick is going to be late when were calling it a discount.

 

And even then, its not less than fair value. JT Miller is a good 2nd line player but this isn't an elite player. Its a high 3rd & a non-playoff team giving up a first round pick. Hardly a discount.

 

 

You mean like context in where this team has drafted? Your whole thing is going on an assumption of this pick being late 1st.

Smashing,

 

Your backing yourself into a corner.  JT is a good player and goes a long way to plugging a hole in our top six.  

 

The 2 biggest holes on the team were needing 2 top six wingers (Baer is one hopefully) and now Miller is the other.  

 

This gives Ep40 and Bo legit players to work with.  No more fill ins!!!

 

Remaking the defence is the second giant hole.  A top.pairing RHD is the other huge need.  

 

You can argue that PK would have been a better get, but 9m per season, 38pts on a good team last year...  that's a big pill to swallow.  

 

Reports had it down to us and NJ, NJ swallows, Vancouver doesn't. 

 

The first move (Miller) predicates another move, RHD.  There is time and FA is just around the corner.  

 

If JB can land his top 4 RHD, then we will be in the mix.  If he still has a giant hole there come training camp... then he and we have problems.  

[mll]

35 minutes ago, Phat Fingers said:

Smashing,

 

Your backing yourself into a corner.  JT is a good player and goes a long way to plugging a hole in our top six.  

 

The 2 biggest holes on the team were needing 2 top six wingers (Baer is one hopefully) and now Miller is the other.  

 

This gives Ep40 and Bo legit players to work with.  No more fill ins!!!

 

Remaking the defence is the second giant hole.  A top.pairing RHD is the other huge need.  

 

You can argue that PK would have been a better get, but 9m per season, 38pts on a good team last year...  that's a big pill to swallow.  

 

Reports had it down to us and NJ, NJ swallows, Vancouver doesn't. 

 

The first move (Miller) predicates another move, RHD.  There is time and FA is just around the corner.  

 

If JB can land his top 4 RHD, then we will be in the mix.  If he still has a giant hole there come training camp... then he and we have problems.  

 

Subban was injured most of the season and was never able to get going.  The whole team just didn't click all season.  The Predators are worse off for the trade and even Poile admits it.  They need to land Duchene in free agency for the trade to be worth it.  

 

Canucks are apparently also targeting Gardiner.