[Discussion] Arizona/OEL

[wallstreetamigo]

The point isnt that OEL is a bad player. He's not. He just isnt a net positive for any team based on the risk imposed by his cap hit (even with 2 mil retained), real dollars paid, term, nmc, age, and 3 years of worrisome regression. 

[flickyoursedin]

Honestly would rather see Benning target teams in trouble with the looming draft expansion. Get younger guys like Dumba, Graves, Cernak, Zadarov or a team like Philly and Carolina have to leave somebody good unprotected.

[MeanSeanBean]

24 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

The point isnt that OEL is a bad player. He's not. He just isnt a net positive for any team based on the risk imposed by his cap hit (even with 2 mil retained), real dollars paid, term, nmc, age, and 3 years of worrisome regression. 

Where is his 3 years of regression talk coming from? His points per a game haven't regressed in that time. If anything they have improved minus a down year. His +/- has improved over that time as well (though personally I think that is a a garbage stat).

 

17/18 - 0.51

18/19 - 0.54

19/20 - 0.45

20/21 - 0.52

 

The only place I can find that mentions anything about him "regressing over 3 years" is that article posted by the score yesterday that mentions his underlying numbers haven't been great in the last 3 years. Is that where you picked up that specific 3 year regression or do you have other information. Because his numbers don't suggest the regression. Legit curious cause I'm not a advanced stats guy and don't want many Yotes games.

 

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2184239

Edited June 20, 2021 by shayster007

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

1 hour ago, Me_ said:

I don’t understand how people think the life of an athlete stops at 30…

 

Except when one’s perspective is that of a 14 year old boy…

 

Then it makes sense.

Has anyone said that?

 

When we talk about age curves, it’s more about which years represent the average peak/plateau in performance, over the life of a career, when to expect decline, and how steep that decline will be, on average, year after year.

 

Nobody is saying a player is “done” at 30. Just that he’s not likely to get any better (in terms of overall performance) at that age.

 

On average, we see players peak between age 22-25, a slight drop off through their twenties, and then more steep decline after age 30.
 

Of course, this is the average, and not a strict model that applies to every player, or graphs out perfectly over every career.

 

There are exceptions, of course.

 

But we should be careful about making too much of those exceptions, as that kind of selection bias generally leads to some very poor conclusions and misreading/rejection of the overall data.

 

Also, when it does come to the exceptions, as in the guys who maintain high performance levels over longer careers, and don’t really drop off until they’re into their 30’s, we need to remember that (a) these are very rare players and (b) that group of players still has an age curve, just delayed, and less precipitous, but does eventually come into play. In most cases, these players plateau from ages 22/23 through to around 29/30, then start a slight decline through their early thirties, and a steep one around age 35 or so. They are usually elite players and they are kind of a special group to themselves.

 

At this point in time, OEL does not look like one of those special players. His age curve looks more typical/average, which means he’s already a few years into his decline, and that career modelling predicts that drop off will accelerate through his 30s.

 

OEL is unlikely to ever be an elite level NHL defenceman again, as his career progresses, despite being paid like one for the next six years. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player, just bad value at $8.25M x 6 years.

 

It’s not impossible that he beats the odds. There are always exceptions. They are just rare, and OEL certainly doesn’t model out like one of the players who tend to fall in that exception category, at least based on the data we have available, and the trend lines going back the last few seasons for his career.

 

Another unfavourable aspect, when it comes to OEL, is that when you split age curves into categories like offensive versus defensive performance, it’s the offensive stats that tend to decline quicker, while many players maintain their defensive value well past age 30. So if OEL’s overall value was larger based on his defensive performance, you might predict he’d maintain a fair portion of his overall value for several more years, as his offensive performance declined, but his defensive performance remained strong. Unfortunately, there’s a good amount to be concerned with, when you dig into OEL’s underlying numbers on the defensive side, and while I’m the first to admit that analytics have clear limitations in both measuring and predicting defensive performance, there’s really not a lot in OEL’s defensive metrics to justify a lot of optimism right now, but there is a fair amount in there to suggest caution, especially when projecting his performance and value over the next six seasons.

 

None of this means that OEL is a bad player, or that his career will be over at 30.
 

That should not be the takeaway.

 

What some of us see in the data is that (a) OEL isn’t currently performing at the level of a $8.25M player (and he arguably hasn’t done so for a few seasons now), (b) his underlying numbers, and even his overall profile, suggest he’s already declining, and (c) he’s at an age where the average NHL player really starts to noticeably decline in both individual performance and the overall (on-ice) value they can bring to their team. 
 

That’s it, really.

 

(And this post is coming from a guy who’s pushing 50. So, while I appreciate being considered as young at heart as a 14-year-old, I’m certainly not someone coming from the perspective that 30 is anything close to old, or that life stops there, either for elite athletes, or the rest of us. )

[MeanSeanBean]

4 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Has anyone said that?

 

When we talk about age curves, it’s more about which years represent the average peak/plateau in performance, over the life of a career, when to expect decline, and how steep that decline will be, on average, year after year.

 

Nobody is saying a player is “done” at 30. Just that he’s not likely to get any better (in terms of overall performance) at that age.

 

On average, we see players peak between age 22-25, a slight drop off through their twenties, and then more steep decline after age 30.
 

Of course, this is the average, and not a strict model that applies to every player, or graphs out perfectly over every career.

 

There are exceptions, of course.

 

But we should be careful about making too much of those exceptions, as that kind of selection bias generally leads to some very poor conclusions and misreading/rejection of the overall data.

 

Also, when it does come to the exceptions, as in the guys who maintain high performance levels over longer careers, and don’t really drop off until they’re into their 30’s, we need to remember that (a) these are very rare players and (b) that group of players still has an age curve, just delayed, and less precipitous, but does eventually come into play. In most cases, these players plateau from ages 22/23 through to around 29/30, then start a slight decline through their early thirties, and a steep one around age 35 or so. They are usually elite players and they are kind of a special group to themselves.

 

At this point in time, OEL does not look like one of those special players. His age curve looks more typical/average, which means he’s already a few years into his decline, and that career modelling predicts that drop off will accelerate through his 30s.

 

OEL is unlikely to ever be an elite level NHL defenceman again, as his career progresses, despite being paid like one for the next six years. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player, just bad value at $8.25M x 6 years.

 

It’s not impossible that he beats the odds. There are always exceptions. They are just rare, and OEL certainly doesn’t model out like one of the players who tend to fall in that exception category, at least based on the data we have available, and the trend lines going back the last few seasons for his career.

 

Another unfavourable aspect, when it comes to OEL, is that when you split age curves into categories like offensive versus defensive performance, it’s the offensive stats that tend to decline quicker, while many players maintain their defensive value well past age 30. So if OEL’s overall value was larger based on his defensive performance, you might predict he’d maintain a fair portion of his overall value for several more years, as his offensive performance declined, but his defensive performance remained strong. Unfortunately, there’s a good amount to be concerned with, when you dig into OEL’s underlying numbers on the defensive side, and while I’m the first to admit that analytics have clear limitations in both measuring and predicting defensive performance, there’s really not a lot in OEL’s defensive metrics to justify a lot of optimism right now, but there is a fair amount in there to suggest caution, especially when projecting his performance and value over the next six seasons.

 

None of this means that OEL is a bad player, or that his career will be over at 30.
 

That should not be the takeaway.

 

What some of us see in the data is that (a) OEL isn’t currently performing at the level of a $8.25M player (and he arguably hasn’t done so for a few seasons now), (b) his underlying numbers, and even his overall profile, suggest he’s already declining, and (c) he’s at an age where the average NHL player really starts to noticeably decline in both individual performance and the overall (on-ice) value they can bring to their team. 
 

That’s it, really.

 

(And this post is coming from a guy who’s pushing 50. So, while I appreciate being considered as young at heart as a 14-year-old, I’m certainly not someone coming from the perspective that 30 is anything close to old, or that life stops there, either for elite athletes, or the rest of us. )

Great post Sid. I don't follow advanced stats, not my jam. What about OEL is dropping off? His offensive production looks steady, which you mentioned is normally the first to drop. Could defensive numbers be more indicative of team play or has OEL lost a step or 2? I don't watch Yotes games past the ones I'm forced to watch when they play the Canucks

 

[JM_]

30 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Taking on 6 years of OEL at 6.25-8.25 mil cap hit doesnt scream patience. 

what does that even mean? is there some magic timeline we don't know about? 

[theo5789]

I wonder how many would've been opposed to trading for Shea Weber when Montreal did. He was 30+ I believe at the time and had like 10 years left on his contract at 7.8+ million. And I wonder what their opinion is today of that trade.

[oldnews]

I spent all my patience for this rumour last summer.

Edited June 20, 2021 by oldnews

[Bertuzzipunch]

6 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

I wonder how many would've been opposed to trading for Shea Weber when Montreal did. He was 30+ I believe at the time and had like 10 years left on his contract at 7.8+ million. And I wonder what their opinion is today of that trade.

Ryan Mcdonagh was rangers #1 and only got better once he was traded to tampa at 30, it does happen but a roll the dice decision 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Bertuzzipunch

[4petesake]

I just don’t think that OEL is a cure for what ails us. I have nothing at all against the guy, only his contract. Is there a price at which I might like to get him? Sure at something like @aGENTsuggested but as I said before that because of his contract he has to come at a fairly steep discount ala Luongo.

Even discounted at $6.25 mil for 6 years I think we should be using that and assets on RD and/or a center. Would Arizona do it? I really don’t care. If they can do better than that, have at it with some other team.

[wallstreetamigo]

20 minutes ago, shayster007 said:

Where is his 3 years of regression talk coming from? His points per a game haven't regressed in that time. If anything they have improved minus a down year. His +/- has improved over that time as well (though personally I think that is a a garbage stat).

 

17/18 - 0.51

18/19 - 0.54

19/20 - 0.45

20/21 - 0.52

 

The only place I can find that mentions anything about him "regressing over 3 years" is that article posted by the score yesterday that mentions his underlying numbers haven't been great in the last 3 years. Is that where you picked up that specific 3 year regression or do you have other information. Because his numbers don't suggest the regression. Legit curious cause I'm not a advanced stats guy and don't want many Yotes games.

 

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2184239

His regression as a player is on the defensive side of the puck and 5 on 5. Along with being not overly physical, those really are the areas where we need help on the left side. 

 

We dont need another non physical, average offense with average defense type on this team. We already have a few. Plus an all offense, limited defense, no physical play guy in Hughes.

 

Who is OEL going to replace on the top PP unit in Van? Because he is not really a consistent point producer at 5 on 5. He had 10 ES points last year vs 14 pp points. 

 

He will get less offensive opportunity in Van. Who plays the defensive zone minutes on a left side with Hughes, OEL, and Rathbone?

 

I watch a lot of games all around the NHL. 

[Bertuzzipunch]

2 minutes ago, 4petesake said:

I just don’t think that OEL is a cure for what ails us. I have nothing at all against the guy, only his contract. Is there a price at which I might like to get him? Sure at something like @aGENTsuggested but as I said before that because of his contract he has to come at a fairly steep discount ala Luongo.

Even discounted at $6.25 mil for 6 years I think we should be using that and assets on RD and/or a center. Would Arizona do it? I really don’t care. If they can do better than that, have at it with some other team.

If only he was a RHD dammit 

[JM_]

1 minute ago, 4petesake said:

I just don’t think that OEL is a cure for what ails us. I have nothing at all against the guy, only his contract. Is there a price at which I might like to get him? Sure at something like @aGENTsuggested but as I said before that because of his contract he has to come at a fairly steep discount ala Luongo.

Even discounted at $6.25 mil for 6 years I think we should be using that and assets on RD and/or a center. Would Arizona do it? I really don’t care. If they can do better than that, have at it with some other team.

we don't actually know what the deal is AZ waffled on last year, but I think we can guess it had a decent amount of salary retention. But there are a few teams I suppose that could take him at full pop, Boston could e.g. if they got him for nearly free. OEL-McAvoy would be a nice pairing for them. 

[wallstreetamigo]

18 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

I wonder how many would've been opposed to trading for Shea Weber when Montreal did. He was 30+ I believe at the time and had like 10 years left on his contract at 7.8+ million. And I wonder what their opinion is today of that trade.

So, in what ways is OEL anything like Shea Weber?

[wallstreetamigo]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

we don't actually know what the deal is AZ waffled on last year, but I think we can guess it had a decent amount of salary retention. But there are a few teams I suppose that could take him at full pop, Boston could e.g. if they got him for nearly free. OEL-McAvoy would be a nice pairing for them. 

Boston apparently was not interested in him without significant retention. At least that was the rumor last year. 

[JM_]

1 minute ago, wallstreetamigo said:

So, in what ways is OEL anything like Shea Weber?

Webers numbers and health are not what they were in NSH, but no one would argue he isn't a very useful player still. 

[wallstreetamigo]

Just now, Jimmy McGill said:

Webers numbers and health are not what they were in NSH, but no one would argue he isn't a very useful player still. 

He is. But that is also because of the style he plays, which is nothing like the style OEL plays. 

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Boston apparently was not interested in him without significant retention. At least that was the rumor last year. 

I think this is where OEL ends up. They have a great fit for him in McAvoy and a ton of cap space, and want to keep the window going. 

[4petesake]

Just now, wallstreetamigo said:

Boston apparently was not interested in him without significant retention. At least that was the rumor last year. 

My guess would be that if Arizona is serious about moving him they must know they are going to have to be much more flexible this time around.

[wallstreetamigo]

Just now, Jimmy McGill said:

I think this is where OEL ends up. They have a great fit for him in McAvoy and a ton of cap space, and want to keep the window going. 

They may have altered their thinking on OEL since last year with some big contracts expiring. Would be thrilled to see him and his huge long term cap hit going to Boston.