nuckin_futz Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) Shantou reverses lockdown order Sun 26 Jan 2020 12:50:15 GMT Reversal may have been ordered from above Earlier the city of Shantou, 1000km from Wuhan, had order a lockdown on travel. It was the first city outside of Hubei to do so. As I highlighted, what was unique about the order was that it was forbidding all transport from entering the city. The lockdowns in Hubei prevent people from leaving. So despite two confirmed cases in Shantou the aim here was likely to keep people out rather than keep the disease from traveling. Now they've had second thoughts and have sent a new notice that says the city will monitor people, vehicles, ships entering city but there are no travel restrictions. All taxi, car hailing, buses will operate normally. What likely happened is that higher-up officials reversed the order because they didn't want other cities to follow and a situation of every-town-for-itself. Either that or the situation isn't as bad as feared. https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/shantou-reverses-lockdown-but-says-vehicles-need-to-be-disinfected-20200126 ********************* I'd be willing to bet just about anything this order to reverse came from Beijing. China's national health minister warns virus appears to be infectious during incubation and is getting stronger Sun 26 Jan 2020 13:04:19 GMT "The virus' ability to spread seems to be getting somewhat stronger" China's National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei today said the incubation period for the virus can range from one to 14 days, and the virus is infectious during incubation, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. "According to recent clinical information, the virus' ability to spread seems to be getting somewhat stronger," Ma told a media briefing. He warned that containment efforts will be intensified. China has now announced that going forward there will be daily briefings at 9 am Beijing time. That's 0100 GMT or 8 pm in New York. The WHO repeated on Sunday that it has not yet declared the virus to be a global emergency. Separately, researchers are debating on what to name the coronavirus. While it's being simply labeled as 'coronavirus' colloquially, that's a scientific term that's used for a type of virus. The interim name is novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in scientific communities. Many are pushing to name it Wuhan coronavirus but the WHO discourages including place names so they might call it SARS-2. Colloquially, I don't think that name will work and I suspect that something like the 'Wuhan flu' will win out in the general public. https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/chinas-national-health-minister-warns-virus-appears-to-be-infectious-during-incubation-20200126 ********************** Pretty frank comments from government officials who generally have a habit of sugarcoating bad news. Edited January 26, 2020 by nuckin_futz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gurn Posted January 26, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 26, 2020 20 hours ago, CBH1926 said: It’s amazing that the Chinese are able to shut down an entire city of 11 million people. This could never happen in the Western Europe or Canada. To me it is neither amazing or surprising. governments that have previously driven tanks over protesters and have locked up millions of people in re-education camps, have installed a great deal of fear in their populace. The people will obey. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, gurn said: To me it is neither amazing or surprising. governments that have previously driven tanks over protesters and have locked up millions of people in re-education camps, have installed a great deal of fear in their populace. The people will obey. Plus, the Chinese government’s actions in this outbreak show how serious this truly is. Reading and hearing there are literally over 100,000 cases now, and the death rate is 15%. There is no way anyone who went to China recently should be allowed to leave there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Too soon to make jokes? I wonder if Ozzy Osborne should donate his blood so authorities can figure out if they could make a serum of sorts ala snake venom? He did bite the head off a bat and survived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) World population in Jan 2019 equaled approx. 7,669,109,078. Canadian pop 37,352,000. I tied to do the math on a 15% mortality rate, but the numbers got to big for my dyslexia to handle. looks to me like just over a billion people? Edited January 26, 2020 by gurn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) According to a study by Global Virome Project, there are around 1.7 million undiscovered viruses i the animal kingdom. They might want to reiterate that to those that like to eat rats, salamanders, bats, civets etc. Edited January 26, 2020 by CBH1926 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, gurn said: World population in Jan 2019 equaled approx. 7,669,109,078. Canadian pop 37,352,000. Can a none borderline dyslexic do the math on just how many folk are potential victims at a mortality rate of 15%? Mortality rate is not important at this point. The usual estimate of mortality rate that I have seen is about 3% anyway. What's more important is infection rate. How many people will the average carrier infect. That is hard to know at this stage. Another important variable is, is China being honest about the number of deaths due to the virus? The answer appears to be no. The following is from a Wall Street Journal story............. That remains to be seen: as reported earlier, in China - which has put over 56 million people on lockdown quarantine - the coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected over 1,400 in China. Ominously, a UK researcher predicted that the Coronavirus would infect over 250,000 people in China in under two weeks, which has sparked a renewed fear that China will once again try to underrepresent the true severity of the diseases until it is too late. The problem is that even as China theatrically pretends to be so forthright about the extent of the epidemic - if only to avoid panic and chaos over allegations it is again hiding the full impact of the disease - it is doing precisely that, and now we know just how it is doing that: instead of putting down coronavirus as the cause of death for an unknown number of Wuhan casualties, China's coroners and hospitals merely ascribe death to "viral pneumonia", case closed. Here's how the WSJ describes this treacherous "bait and switch": A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs. Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.” Why did the hospital do this? Because as the relatives of all three now dead people said, the deceased hadn’t been included in China’s official count of 41 deaths attributed to coronavirus. And that's how China is suppressing the full extent of nCoV's lethality, and keeping the mortality rate of the coronavirus artificially low: “There are likely to be many times more cases in Wuhan than officially confirmed,” said Neil Ferguson, a disease modeler at Imperial College London, who echoed the forecast of Jonathan Read, and estimated as many as 4,000 people may have been infected in Wuhan. “Clearly, the hospitals are overwhelmed.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: The usual estimate of mortality rate that I have seen is about 3% anyway Still a freaky, scary number, but a lot better than 15%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/21/2020 at 11:16 AM, kurtis said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, gurn said: Still a freaky, scary number, but a lot better than 15%. 3% is 3 million people for every 100 million. so 30 million per billion people? if everyone gets infected over 210 million people? I hope I'm wrong and grossly over in my math? Edited January 26, 2020 by gurn added if everyone gets infected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-DLC- Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 hours ago, Russ said: Let them visit, just don't let them back here until this is all cleared up and safe. Anyone who after this virus got announced told themselves "hey you know what I should do, I should still go on that vacation to china" is a bloody idiot. Second I would have heard of this disease, my plane ticket would have been thrown in the trash. Problem is, people going back and forth aren't always going on vacation. Family going back for weddings, funerals, business trips...people travel for various reasons and some may risk it if they're going home to be with a sick parent, close out a huge deal, etc. So it's up to Government to put measures in place to protect the masses...not "wait and see" and foot drag UNTIL something hits and is out of control. We'll see how this is handled...I don't trust Government or puppets at tables with speeches written out to "assure us". More like to quiet things down in a business as usual way. If it's warranted...great. If not...then they're pretty negligent in it all. I, for one, am not going to panic....going to the game tomorrow and acting on what I'm being told. "Everything will be ok, they've got this in check". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-DLC- Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 5 hours ago, smokes said: It looks like the food problem is solved. People can order food through an app and the groceries will deliver to the doorsteps. There has been a ban on companies jacking up prices with a government phone number for people to complain to should that happens. So that is a good thing. People and companies are all donating masks and medical supplies from all over the country. They are disinfecting the streets, district per district. Building two hospitals from within a week. So the spirit seems pretty good for the people in the city. That's great news, smokes! Reassuring to know that you're not just isolated and left to figure it all out on your own. Take care. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russ Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said: Problem is, people going back and forth aren't always going on vacation. Family going back for weddings, funerals, business trips...people travel for various reasons and some may risk it if they're going home to be with a sick parent, close out a huge deal, etc. So it's up to Government to put measures in place to protect the masses...not "wait and see" and foot drag UNTIL something hits and is out of control. We'll see how this is handled...I don't trust Government or puppets at tables with speeches written out to "assure us". More like to quiet things down in a business as usual way. If it's warranted...great. If not...then they're pretty negligent in it all. I, for one, am not going to panic....going to the game tomorrow and acting on what I'm being told. "Everything will be ok, they've got this in check". Yea until I see it become a problem in BC I won't panic, for now we are safe *knock on wood*. I saw the one lady on the news yesterday whos trying to get her daughter back because she's stuck in Wuhan right now. Even if she can get out and fly back with all the lockdowns, whats the chance the disease is festering in her at the moment? Putting her on a plane and risking 100 more people getting sick and then those risks onto the public, etc. Its hard for me to say bring them back home when who knows if we can detect the really early stages of the disease, seems to be a lot of info out there and hard to know whats right and whats wrong info wise at the moment about its contagablility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) 5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into "More Transmissable" Form Over the weekend, there were numerous media reports published in hopes of easing fears that the coronavirus spread was uncontained, and informing the general public just how seriously China takes its quarantine of no less than 17 cities and roughly 60 million people. Take this report from AFP, according to which Police at a roadblock on the outskirts of Wuhan turned away cars trying to leave the virus-stricken epicenter on Saturday, as other anxious residents trapped inside spent the Lunar New Year stocking up on masks and medical supplies. "Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others" AFP writes adding that its reporters saw "a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20 kilometres (12 miles) east of the city centre on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around." The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones. "Nobody can leave," a policeman told AFP. Yet, but... there is just one problem: the much needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan's mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday. As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan's residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night. As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China. Due to the Chinese Lunar New Year and the #WuhanCoronavirus, more than 5 million people left Wuhan and 9 million people remain in the city which is under lockdown: Wuhan mayor pic.twitter.com/hi2NwsHmou — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) January 26, 2020 Meanwhile, in Chinese health officials warned the virus’ ability to spread was getting stronger, and in the worst possible news for China, Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak had become especially complicated, after it was discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome). More in the link https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/5-million-potential-corona-carriers-have-left-wuhan-virus-appears-mutate-more *************************** Third Coronavirus Infection Confirmed In California As Wuhan Mayor Expects “1000 Or So” New Cases Summary: Over 2000 cases, 56 Official deaths Incubation is asymptomatic, contagious, and can be as long as 14 days 5M may have left Wuhan for Lunar New Year 1st case was Dec 1 NOT Dec 31 so infect pop may be much bigger US, Russia, Thailand begin plans for evacuation * * * Update (0950ET): As the world is on edge with the rise of the number of officially reported coronavirus infections (and deaths), the mayor of Wuhan said Sunday that he expects news cases to jump by 1,000. Mayor Zhou Xianwang told Reuters and other journalists in a briefing that Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, could soon report an additional 1,000 new cases, that would push total cases across Mainland China to about 3,000. Xianwang said the city is constructing several new hospitals to deal with infected patients. He said the city had received new supplies on protective gear such as biological suits, masks, and glasses, which have been in short supply. If Xianwang is correct about the increase of new cases, this could mean by the end of Sunday, a total of 3,000 cases could be confirmed across the world, and suggest that Jonathan Read’s model of 250 thousand infected in the next several weeks could become a reality. more in the link https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/third-us-coronavirus-case-confirmed-orange-county Also, I understand at least 1 Canadian will be part of the US evacuation. Edited January 26, 2020 by nuckin_futz It reads as if it's the third case in California. It is not, it is the third case in total in the United States. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-DLC- Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Russ said: Yea until I see it become a problem in BC I won't panic, for now we are safe *knock on wood*. I saw the one lady on the news yesterday whos trying to get her daughter back because she's stuck in Wuhan right now. Even if she can get out and fly back with all the lockdowns, whats the chance the disease is festering in her at the moment? Putting her on a plane and risking 100 more people getting sick and then those risks onto the public, etc. Its hard for me to say bring them back home when who knows if we can detect the really early stages of the disease, seems to be a lot of info out there and hard to know whats right and whats wrong info wise at the moment about its contagablility. While I fully understand that woman's anguish (as a Mother myself), it's a really . unfortunate situation and actions have to be based on what's best for everyone...not just this Mom and her daughter. She, at least, is with family and has the comfort of loved ones (grandparents, father)....so Mom should rest assured and take comfort in that. That she isn't a tourist on her own out there, with no one for support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ktcy2 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I don’t get the calmness at this point out on the streets when everyone out in other parts of the world is panicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, ktcy2 said: I don’t get the calmness at this point out on the streets when everyone out in other parts of the world is panicking. 1 hour ago, gurn said: To me it is neither amazing or surprising. governments that have previously driven tanks over protesters and have locked up millions of people in re-education camps, have installed a great deal of fear in their populace. The people will obey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4th US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In LA Update (2pmET): It's official: The Wuhan coronavirus has arrived in the second largest city in America. The LA County Department of Public Health just confirmed what is now the fourth case discovered in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 ^ Bad news Quick check shows more than 10 flights a day from Vancouver to LA. Add the flights from Vancouver/Blaine to Las Vegas and the news gets worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, gurn said: ^ Bad news Quick check shows more than 10 flights a day from Vancouver to LA. Add the flights from Vancouver/Blaine to Las Vegas and the news gets worse. I'd be far more concerned about the number of direct daily flights from China to Vancouver. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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