Coronavirus outbreak

[nuckin_futz]

China imposes restrictions on travel to Beijing

Sat 25 Jan 2020 19:26:38 GMT

 

More signs of how serious Beijing is taking the epidemic

 

China reported 10 new coronavirus cases in Beijing today and there are now 51 cases in the city.

 

The latest restrictions prevent bus travel to Beijing from elsewhere. Private cars and trains are still allowed but passengers via those methods are more-often tracked.

 

As CNBC Beijing correspondent Eunice Yoon reports:

 

When Chinese get sick, they often make trip to a big city for care because health care system is lacking esp. in provinces. Beijing hospitals have best reputation. So China likely trying to prevent flood of coronavirus patients from showing up (which would be common practice.)

Given the reports of overcrowded hospitals in hotspots, expect that Beijing and other major centers are at a higher risk of outbreaks.

 

In other coronavirus news:

• Australian has reported 4 cases
• France, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal have confirmed cases
• Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
• The US and France chartered planes to remove diplomats  and nationals trapped in containment zones
• The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
• China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
• Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
• Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
• The official number of cases has risen to 1372 as of 10 hours ago
• President Xi said China faces a 'grave situation' as the spread is 'accelerating'
• 3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus

[kurtis]

On 1/23/2020 at 1:37 PM, Jaimito said:

Decent movie.  Just watched it. 

 

I think so far China is taking the right steps sealing off the city.  That method will never fly in N America.  There will be mass riots and protests.  At least Chinese are used to that form of government and so far it seem like they citizens are complying. 

 

Canada is well trained from the SARS experience, which is the same family of virus but different strain.  Take this from a health professional. 

 

All the anger and racism comes out when you get these types of outbreaks. The title of the OP article says it all. "Chinese virus". Lmao. As though a virus has a passport or some kind of race specific tropoism.  When Mad Cow disease and CJD came out, no one called it the English brain disease. Or American/White man hamburger illness with the E coli outbreak. 

 

Unless you live in a bunker or stop all trade, make your crap iPhone yourselves, global spread of infectious diseases will be more common in the future. This needs to be tackled globally.  Destruction of forests, contacts with wild animals or eating exotic bush meat etc, air travel, are all problems to that need to be dealt with. 

 

Crazy! 

[nuckin_futz]

BREAKING: First coronavirus case in Canada confirmed 

 

Ontario health officials announced that a “presumptive case” of coronavirus is confirmed at Toronto’s Sunnybrook hospital.

 

Ontario’s chief medical officer, Dr. David Williams made the announcement Saturday afternoon alongside Health Minister Christine Elliott. Williams said, “”It’s our first presumptive positive case of novel coronavirus virus. The risk to Ontarians is still low. The system is working as it should.”

 

The patient is a man in his fifties who travelled to Canada recently from Wuhan, China.

 

This is the first official case of the deadly viral strain in Canada. More than 1400 people have been infected worldwide.

The Ontario government has launched a website where you can see all the updates of the coronavirus.

[Russ]

6 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

BREAKING: First coronavirus case in Canada confirmed 

 

Ontario health officials announced that a “presumptive case” of coronavirus is confirmed at Toronto’s Sunnybrook hospital.

 

Ontario’s chief medical officer, Dr. David Williams made the announcement Saturday afternoon alongside Health Minister Christine Elliott. Williams said, “”It’s our first presumptive positive case of novel coronavirus virus. The risk to Ontarians is still low. The system is working as it should.”

 

The patient is a man in his fifties who travelled to Canada recently from Wuhan, China.

 

This is the first official case of the deadly viral strain in Canada. More than 1400 people have been infected worldwide.

The Ontario government has launched a website where you can see all the updates of the coronavirus.

Well hopefully anyone whos been there in the last couple months goes to the hospital ASAP to get checked and cleared just as a precaution. 

[nuckin_futz]

Coronavirus Kills Man In Shanghai As China Confirms Nearly 2,000 Cases

First nCoV death reported in Shanghai

South Korea confirms third case

Toronto health officials to announce first 'presumptive case' of coronavirus in Canada

1975 Cases Worldwide; 56 deaths (still about a 3% mortality rate)

18 Chinese cities - 56 million people - quarantined

President Xi said China faces a 'grave situation' as the spread is 'accelerating'

 

(lots more in the link)

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/56-million-chinese-lockdown-virus-spreads-australia-malaysia

 

***************

 

Looks like China has sent in the military to aid/take over hospitals in Wuhan which appear to be overwhelmed.

 

[J-23]

Everyone on that flight with that man from Ontario needs to be checked asap.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, J-23 said:

Everyone on that flight with that man from Ontario needs to be checked asap.

And we are allowing people to visit China why?  Have our government officials not seen 12 Monkeys?  

[nuckin_futz]

A city 1000km from Wuhan just declared a full lockdown

Sun 26 Jan 2020 04:01:13 GMT

 

Shantou, a city of 5.5m on the southern coast will go on lockdown

 

The city of Shantou on the southern coast of China in Guangdong province has announced it will be the first outside of Hubei province to go on lockdown.

 

That means no individual, vehicle or boat will be allowed to enter the city beginning on January 27. What's different here is that Hubei cities are preventing people from leaving; in Shantou, they're baring them from entering.

 

The choice of this city is extremely concerning. There are only 2 confirmed cases there and many are speculating this is a sign that the entire country is about to be put on lockdown. While that would be economically devastating in the short-term, it would be China's best chance of halting the spread of the virus.

 

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/a-city-1000km-from-wuhan-just-declared-a-full-lockdown-20200126

 

Number of China coronavirus virus cases rises to 1,975. Why that number is statistically impossible

Sun 26 Jan 2020 03:32:28 GMT

 

Here is why I think that's wrong

China has now confirmed 56 deaths and 1,975 cases.

 

For reference to total number of global SARS cases were 8089 and it cut around 1 percentage point from Chinese GDP. That pandemic also moved much more slowly. To me, this will undoubtedly be worse.

 

In any case, this is about the official number. It's now progressed like this:

 

• Jan 17: 41
• Jan 19: 62
• Jan 20: 201
• Jan 21: 291
• Jan 22: 440
• Jan 24: 830
• Jan 25: 1,287
• Jan 26: 1,975

Those numbers are terrifying but I'm about to scare you much more. Here's why the latest number is statistically impossible, and almost certainly far too low.

 

Canada became the latest country to confirm a case of coronavirus. That brings the total number of people infected abroad to at least 32 by my count. At least 30 of them have a direct connection to Wuhan city and yet that province has only reported 761 cases.

 

That means there is one foreign case directly tied to Wuhan for every 25 cases in the city. Put differently, that means that in the short window of incubation -- two weeks at most but probably half that -- one in every 25 people in the city would have had to travel abroad -- or about 433,639 people.

 

To put that into perspective, Sweden is the most well-traveled country in the world and has almost the same population as Wuhan (11 million). The average number of international trips each day is just over 30,000. If you were adjust for people who took multiple trips per year that would conservatively fall to 20,000. Nevermind that Sweden is one of the richest countries in the world and travel to the rest of Europe is extremely cheap and easy. But citizens of Wuhan would have had to travel abroad at more than twice the rate of Swedes for the 761 number from Wuhan to be even remotely possible.

 

This is the exact methodology that the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis used on January 17, when China had reported just 41 cases they estimated 1700 cases.

 

This epidemic is far worse than the reported numbers, but China's efforts to seal off +50 million people and shut down a dozen cities already told you that.

 

Still not scared? A big debate in the virus community right now is the basic reproduction number of this virus. That's how many people each person passes it to, on average. If it's 10 that means it spreads very quickly, if it's less than 1 it inevitably dies out. A new paper from China pegs it at 3.3-5.5 and at this point that basically means it's unstoppable baring some intense quarantines and a bit of luck. Another paper initially had it at 3.8 but has scaled that back to 2.5 and another in the UK (cited below) has it at "2.6 or higher."

 

You can still stop an epidemic at that point but you need to contain 60% of cases.

 

Yet even at that level, here's what Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease modeller/epidemiologist and Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis says the outlook is bleak:

 

Still not scared? Another paper estimates that the mortality rate of coronavirus is 15%.

 

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/china-number-of-coronavirus-virus-cases-rises-to-1975-20200126

Edited January 26, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[Lancaster]

Whatever figures published by the Chinese Communist Party.... just at least 10x the number and it will be a bit more realistic.  

[peaches5]

There were some videos leaked out from a hospital in China and the entire hospital is overrun with dead bodies. They haven't been confirmed authentic yet but I wouldn't be surprised if China is covering it up. 

[Violator]

They have someone in quarantine protical at yvr

[CBH1926]

Considering that government of China is as open as Soviets used to be, situation has to be way worse.

Who knows how many are really sick or have already died.

 

[nuckin_futz]

17 minutes ago, CBH1926 said:

Considering that government of China is as open as Soviets used to be, situation has to be way worse.

Who knows how many are really sick or have already died.

 

I don't like posting things that are unconfirmed or not theoretical.

 

That said, this is not confirmed but if it is true then this is magnitudes worse than we are being told.

 

Description is as follows : This is a chinese video taken from a doctor who is pleading for help, she has now been detained by police claiming she has been infected. Save this video as the sources are being DELETED and removed from the internet.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[DonLever]

1 hour ago, CBH1926 said:

Considering that government of China is as open as Soviets used to be, situation has to be way worse.

Who knows how many are really sick or have already died.

 

Actions speak louder than numbers or words as China has quarantined 12 cities, some of them with a population bigger than London.

The situation must be pretty bad to shut down entire cities.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by DonLever

[Darkstar]

There's a video floating around of a nurse in China saying the the number of infected in Wuhan is around 90,000. That number makes more sense, especially with the complete shutdown of so many cities in China.

[J-23]

4 hours ago, Alflives said:

And we are allowing people to visit China why?  Have our government officials not seen 12 Monkeys?  

Governments don’t care. 56 million people in China on lockdown, that’s more than our entire population.

[Russ]

7 hours ago, Alflives said:

And we are allowing people to visit China why?  Have our government officials not seen 12 Monkeys?  

Let them visit, just don't let them back here until this is all cleared up and safe.  Anyone who after this virus got announced told themselves "hey you know what I should do, I should still go on that vacation to china" is a bloody idiot.  Second I would have heard of this disease, my plane ticket would have been thrown in the trash.

[Russ]

4 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

I don't like posting things that are unconfirmed or not theoretical.

 

That said, this is not confirmed but if it is true then this is magnitudes worse than we are being told.

 

Description is as follows : This is a chinese video taken from a doctor who is pleading for help, she has now been detained by police claiming she has been infected. Save this video as the sources are being DELETED and removed from the internet.

 

 

Only thing I would say about that video is this things spreading like wildfire, I am sure the government wasn't ready for an onslaught of people going to the hospital so supplies would probably be hard as hell to get to them and to keep up.  I hope to god its not that bad, if it is then its moving back like the small pox days where cities were infected in meer days.  Reminds me a bit of when I watched that video of the small pox.

[Canadian]

From some press conferences today, the Chinese Ministry of Health has suggested that it is contagious while asymptomatic, as well that the incubation period may be between 1 and 14 days. Might be a long time before they get this under control....

[smokes]

It looks like the food problem is solved. People can order food through an app and the groceries will deliver to the doorsteps. There has been a ban on companies jacking up prices with a government phone number for people to complain to should that happens. So that is a good thing. People and companies are all donating masks and medical supplies from all over the country. They are disinfecting the streets, district per district. Building two hospitals from within a week. So the spirit seems pretty good for the people in the city.