[Trade] Red Wings trade Anthony Mantha to Capitals for Jakub Vrana, Richard Panik, 2021 1st-round pick, 2022 2nd-round pick

[stawns]

5 minutes ago, EternalCanuckFan said:

It also goes to show how expensive buying cap space is.  Panik is a serviceable NHLer even if he wasn't able to crack the Caps' lineup and WSH had to give up a 2nd to make it work.

 

The Wings have 12 picks in 2021 and 11 in 2022.  They can either restock quickly or convert some of those picks into coveted players.  Although many picks moved around today, it does feel like picks are even more highly valued in the flat cap era since it's harder to move players.  It's one of the reasons that GMs need to be more careful about the contracts they sign (not that I see that happening any time soon).

 

I wonder if Yzerman may be in discussions with Ron Francis (Kraken) already about potential moves, depending on who is available.  The Kraken could take many players to exceed the cap if they already have deals with Detroit knowing that they can clear cap space with Detroit's help.  This could potentially help the Red Wings re-arm more quickly than expected.  Larkin's still pretty young but he's 5-years older than Seider which, to me, basically makes him the old man if Seider and whoever ends up filling out the Red Wings' core 

 

Of course they could also just draft 23 new players in the next 2-years and restock that way.

 

It will be interesting to see what Yzerman does and if he ends up just drafting.  If they go the drafting route, then I will be very curious to see how long it takes for them to be competitive again since it's pretty much the opposite approach the Canucks took.  I wasn't necessarily full team tank, but I would have been fine if the Canucks had clearly planned on acquiring as many picks as possible with whatever assets they had.  Mind you, for the Canucks, trading a guy like Mantha would be like them trading Horvat in the sense that both are seasoned veterans now but are still quite young. 

[khay]

13 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

Some GM's are just better than others, especially when it comes to trades.

 

Some GM's have excuses and others just get stuff done.

 

Look at Yzerman's last 3 trades combined:

 

In:

Vrana

1st

2nd

2nd

2nd

2nd

Panik (cap dump)
Staal (cap dump)

Gagner (cap dump)

 

Out:

Mantha

Athanasiou (UFA, wasn't going to be re-signed)

 

Yeah that is a heck of a haul for one top 6 player, one middle 6 player, and cap space.

 

Definitely a smart way to use the cap space.

 

 

 

[oldnews]

On 4/12/2021 at 1:01 PM, Devron44 said:

Detroit wins and it’s not even close. Only way Washington wins this trade is if they win a cup.

 

Yzerman man. Watch out for Detroit in the next few years 

 

On 4/12/2021 at 1:04 PM, Bitter Melon said:

Holy hell this seems like an overpay for Mantha.

I don't agree with either of these takes - although at a glance it looks like a disproportionate haul for Detroit.

 

However - that's only appearances - at a glance.  I think once you look closer at the whole - it's reasonable value both ways.

 

First - dumping Panik - this season +2 more years of term - at 2.75 million - costs at least a 2nd round pick.

Panik was dead cap on a contender - a guy getting 57% ozone starts, terrible goal metrics - worst on that team - minus 1.3 goals per 60 at 5on5 - can't/doesn't handle bottom six type minutes, doesn't kill penalties for them - and can't produce on a damn good team in those minutes. 

 

Remembering that the Caps 2nd will be a late 2nd, likely in the 50 or later range - and in a covid cap environment - that may actually be an underpayment Relative to other market value cap moves (which have been rare) - ie what Tampa paid a 2nd to move a better, more serviceable Paquette, and Coburn - both of whom had only a year of term remaining, both under 2 milllion, and both have been traded for assets subsequently (Coburn rented for a pick, Paquette dealt for Dzingel)....

 

So separating that aspect - it's Mantha for Vrana and a 1st.

Again - that 1st is likely to be in the 25-31 range - in other words - it comes with about 20-25% odds of drafting a serviceable NHL player.

And again, we could arguably say that a fraction of that pick - or that pick entirely as opposed to the 2nd - may be considered part (or whole) value in eating the 5.5 million plus remaining on Panik's deal.

 

Is Mantha worth Vrana + a late 1st/2nd round pick.  I think so - particularly when you consider the real point of making this deal - is the way it enhances the Caps chances of winning another Championship.  Mantha is a 'beast' = a 6'5", 235lb 20 goal scorer (on a horrible Detroit team) - whereas Vrana is talented, but in the past two playoffs he hasn't scored a point in 15 games (-8).  In their cup run, he had 3 g, 8 pts in 23 games.   Regular season production is inflated - with very high ozone starts, powerplay time, high end linemates....

 

I think in all likelihood Washington gets the best player in the deal in the end.  Of course - that is based on mean value of picks - ie those picks at late first and second are not likely to produce a player of the quality of either Mantha (or Vrana) - it really depends on Stevie Y's ability to pull an outlier out of those spots in the draft.

 

I think the deal makes solid sense for Washington.  For Detroit - it's a gamble imo - that they can turn volume into quality....that's not always the best gamble (generally the team that gets the best asset wins most deals imo).

 

 

 

[oldnews]

On 4/12/2021 at 12:51 PM, N7Nucks said:

How many Mantha's did we have to giveaway in our rebuild?

but, but we coulda/shoulda dealt Horvat (the one young piece the team had) for a lightweight, inflated, regular season wonder - winger, and a late pick!

Because....azzet management....and quantity is better than quality!

[kanucks25]

23 minutes ago, oldnews said:

but, but we coulda/shoulda dealt Horvat (the one young piece the team had) for a lightweight, inflated, regular season wonder - winger, and a late pick!

Because....azzet management....and quantity is better than quality!

Funny you have time to react to my posts (you always seem to) but no time to reply to that Gudbranson post in the other thread?

 

Not that I blame ya

 

Edited April 15, 2021 by kanucks25

[oldnews]

8 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

Funny you have time to react to my posts (you always seem to) but no time to reply to that Gudbranson post in the other thread?

 

derp.

I haven't reacted to any of your posts, actually. 

easy to verify - they're called notifications - and you have none.

unless your username is @N7Nucks?   didn't think so.

You're deluded - and wadr there's nothing particularly noteworthy/memorable about your posts.

But if you're desperate for attention - there - you got some.

 

 

 

 

[shiznak]

On 4/12/2021 at 1:45 PM, DownUndaCanuck said:

Vrana > Mantha and the deal was won/lost there. Sure the 1st and 2nd are late but this is robbery, Mantha is massively over-rated.

Inconsistent, maybe.

 

Overrated? Furthest from the truth.

Who really talks about him, outside from Detroit fans?

[Westcoastcanucks777]

is it just me or is that amazing secondary scoring now for the cap

[Simulation]

Great deal by Yzerman. Showcasing again that when he makes deals, he’s not in to lose them. Mantha was a core piece for Detroit’s future alongside Larkin. You can see that they only parted with him because of the overpay on Washington’s end.

 

Vrana is a raw top6/top9 scoring winger yet to fully put it altogether (due to ice time/lack of opportunity will be answered shortly) whereas Mantha is a legitimate top line scoring winger who’s often injured. Not sure why the Caps couldn’t just wait on Vrana but either way seems like a win-win in terms of both teams needs. If Mantha can stay healthy, he should easily be close to point-per-game for WSH.

[Devron]

5 hours ago, oldnews said:

 

I don't agree with either of these takes - although at a glance it looks like a disproportionate haul for Detroit.

 

However - that's only appearances - at a glance.  I think once you look closer at the whole - it's reasonable value both ways.

 

First - dumping Panik - this season +2 more years of term - at 2.75 million - costs at least a 2nd round pick.

Panik was dead cap on a contender - a guy getting 57% ozone starts, terrible goal metrics - worst on that team - minus 1.3 goals per 60 at 5on5 - can't/doesn't handle bottom six type minutes, doesn't kill penalties for them - and can't produce on a damn good team in those minutes. 

 

Remembering that the Caps 2nd will be a late 2nd, likely in the 50 or later range - and in a covid cap environment - that may actually be an underpayment Relative to other market value cap moves (which have been rare) - ie what Tampa paid a 2nd to move a better, more serviceable Paquette, and Coburn - both of whom had only a year of term remaining, both under 2 milllion, and both have been traded for assets subsequently (Coburn rented for a pick, Paquette dealt for Dzingel)....

 

So separating that aspect - it's Mantha for Vrana and a 1st.

Again - that 1st is likely to be in the 25-31 range - in other words - it comes with about 20-25% odds of drafting a serviceable NHL player.

And again, we could arguably say that a fraction of that pick - or that pick entirely as opposed to the 2nd - may be considered part (or whole) value in eating the 5.5 million plus remaining on Panik's deal.

 

Is Mantha worth Vrana + a late 1st/2nd round pick.  I think so - particularly when you consider the real point of making this deal - is the way it enhances the Caps chances of winning another Championship.  Mantha is a 'beast' = a 6'5", 235lb 20 goal scorer (on a horrible Detroit team) - whereas Vrana is talented, but in the past two playoffs he hasn't scored a point in 15 games (-8).  In their cup run, he had 3 g, 8 pts in 23 games.   Regular season production is inflated - with very high ozone starts, powerplay time, high end linemates....

 

I think in all likelihood Washington gets the best player in the deal in the end.  Of course - that is based on mean value of picks - ie those picks at late first and second are not likely to produce a player of the quality of either Mantha (or Vrana) - it really depends on Stevie Y's ability to pull an outlier out of those spots in the draft.

 

I think the deal makes solid sense for Washington.  For Detroit - it's a gamble imo - that they can turn volume into quality....that's not always the best gamble (generally the team that gets the best asset wins most deals imo).

 

 

 

I’m pretty high on Vrana. He puts up points with limited ice time. He could still be a star in the league.

 

I felt a change of scenery for both may have done the trick for both clubs. Mantha could be an absolute monster for Washington in the playoffs theres no doubt about it but both players fit with where each team is at. Detroit got what they got because of Manthas contract

 

Panik isn’t much of a cap dump imo. He can still play, not old, and on a reasonable contract. 
 

It’s a huge win for Detroit not a doubt in my mind. Stevie can draft. Washington wins if they win a cup. I don’t knock them in particular on the deal but that’s a home run for  Detroit 

[oldnews]

On 4/12/2021 at 1:45 PM, DownUndaCanuck said:

Vrana > Mantha

I'd be interested to hear you try to qualify that claim. 

 

Btw - Washington is in it to win another Cup - moving a guy with 3 goals and 8 pts in 38 playoff games seems somewhat self-explanatory - particularly when he's there to provide essentially one thing - a one-dimensional player - who hasn't produced.

Edited April 15, 2021 by oldnews

[oldnews]

10 hours ago, Devron44 said:

 

I felt a change of scenery for both may have done the trick for both clubs.

 

Panik isn’t much of a cap dump imo.

If Vrana can't produce playing with the Capitals top 6 I'm not sure that needing a 'change of scenery' is a solid assumption.

 

Look at the market value/precedents of moving 5.5+ million of dead cap. 

Panik has been the worst Capital on the ice this year, 'old' or not - outcomes already posted.

 

At a glance I thought this looked like a good take for Yzerman - once you scratch the surface though, it's a reasonable deal both ways - Yzerman didn't fleece anyone here - he got what you'd expect imo under the circumstances.  If anything - he took the greater risk, because he gave up the best asset in the deal - took  volume - and will have to do what the does - find an outlier - to win this deal.

[Devron]

1 hour ago, oldnews said:

If Vrana can't produce playing with the Capitals top 6 I'm not sure that needing a 'change of scenery' is a solid assumption.

 

Look at the market value/precedents of moving 5.5+ million of dead cap. 

Panik has been the worst Capital on the ice this year, 'old' or not - outcomes already posted.

 

At a glance I thought this looked like a good take for Yzerman - once you scratch the surface though, it's a reasonable deal both ways - Yzerman didn't fleece anyone here - he got what you'd expect imo under the circumstances.  If anything - he took the greater risk, because he gave up the best asset in the deal - took  volume - and will have to do what the does - find an outlier - to win this deal.

Vrana hasn’t been playing in the top 6 for most of the year. Actually was healthy scratched a few times. I think it’s a good deal for Washington and a better deal for Detroit. Not a doubt in my mind Yzerman got the best possible deal here. 

[Devron]

But we will see how it plays out here on the surface it sure looks like a killer deal for Detroit to me anyway 

[Kenny Blankenship]

3 hours ago, oldnews said:

I'd be interested to hear you try to qualify that claim. 

 

Btw - Washington is in it to win another Cup - moving a guy with 3 goals and 8 pts in 38 playoff games seems somewhat self-explanatory.

In no world is Vrana a better player than Mantha. Anyone who has watched both of them play would know this. I don’t know how someone could come to that conclusion. 

[JeremyCuddles]

Vrana has 4 PP points this season. So he's done a good amount with just 5 on 5 points. Albeit a very protected 5 on 5 role. Nearly 70% ozone starts. But nonetheless, 0.5 points per game 5 on 5 isn't too shabby. And with Detroit being what they are, he's gonna get more PP looks in all likelihood. Playing more on Detroit should also help. He was getting 14 minutes of ice time a game on Washington. We seen what getting top 6 looks did for Miller's points per game. Not saying he pulls a Miller, but we should see an increase in Vrana's overall numbers with an increased role on Detroit compared to his Washington deployment. Had 52 points in 69 games last season. He has top 6 scoring upside and he's shown it.

 

This is looking like a massive coup for Detroit. Mantha's biggest downside is largely health. So we haven't even truly seen Mantha unleashed. But so far, Mantha's best season points wise doesn't beat Vrana's. He's not a big time hitter, not a bruising powerforward, and I don't recall anyone calling him a defensive stalwart. So, I could see the argument of Vrana being the best player in the trade. AND Detroit got picks. Lol. But like I said, with Mantha's health we haven't even really seen him at full power for a season. He has massive upside. But it makes this trade look even more lopsided when you buy high on a broken asset. Like Washington did. They are really gambling on Mantha being healthy.

 

Or the cost of dumping Panik's 2.75m in cap for 2 seasons was just that costly. Which I don't buy.

[oldnews]

4 hours ago, Devron44 said:

Vrana hasn’t been playing in the top 6 for most of the year. Actually was healthy scratched a few times. I think it’s a good deal for Washington and a better deal for Detroit. Not a doubt in my mind Yzerman got the best possible deal here. 

 

I would not have made that claim if I had not actually looked at his deployment.

You might want to check your facts before making a correction like this.  Healthy scratched is irrelevent.

 

His most common linemates have been Backstrom and Wilson.

Kuznetsov is his 3rd most frequent linemate.

His most frequent bottom six deployment was with Eller and Sprong = 6% of his 5on5 ice time.

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jakub-vrana

 

Another one-liner assuming who 'won' the deal is just that - and premature.

 

[Devron]

Just now, oldnews said:

 

I would not have made that claim if I had not actually looked at his deployment.

You might want to check your facts before making a correction like this.  Healthy scratched is irrelevent.

 

His most common linemates have been Backstrom and Wilson.

Kuznetsov is his 3rd most frequent linemate.

His most frequent bottom six deployment was with Eller and Sprong = 6% of his 5on5 ice time.

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jakub-vrana

 

Another one-liner assuming who 'won' the deal is just that - and premature.

 

Dude he’s in 2 fantasy pools of mine. I check his ice time every game. I’m making a claim based on that. I don’t need to check the facts when I have a close eye on him all the time it wasn’t till recently he was playing 3rd 4th line minutes. But I’d production and trajectory are solid af before that. I’m not here to argue. I’ve stated my feelings towards the trade and also made a comment that we will wait and see who truly wins the trade. I’ll keep my one liner thank you very much 

[oldnews]

15 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

Dude he’s in 2 fantasy pools of mine.

I could not care less if you have him in fantasy - I'm not dealing in fantasy - I posted the facts of the frequency of his linemates.  He's not a bottom six forward - he's a prototypical top six or bust type.   Not only has he played predominantly with top 6 forwards - but as I already also posted - his zone starts for the season are 68% - nothing resembling 'bottom 6' minutes.  

 

If you have a source that shows that Dobber has it wrong - feel free to post it.  "Dude".

 

Edited April 15, 2021 by oldnews

[oldnews]

The problem with the idea that 'Detroit wins' the deal hands down - is that people do not separate the elements of this deal.

 

Of course any team that eats a cap dump in exchange for picks/assets appears to 'win' a deal - because they tend to be bottomfeeders for whom short term cap space isn't particularly vital.  And fans in rething markets crave those futures more than anything.

 

The reality is that half the value of those picks - at least - has to be considered to go to the 5.5+ million of cap dump that Detroit ate.

 

When you separate that - and then look at the roster asset aspects of the deal - then the top up from Vrana to Mantha is not so clearly a 'win' for Detroit = a Vrana + one of those picks for Mantha deal is highly debatable - particularly considering the fact that Vrana has flagged hard in three straight postseasons - where, for a team like Washington, that is all it's really about (they are a virtual bye to make the playoffs with or without Vrana - what he brings - or does not bring - in the postseason is the point).

Edited April 15, 2021 by oldnews