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Current Odds of Making the Playoffs

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allegend

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LA is falling, their D really relies on Doughty so if they go .500 and win 4 games, that puts them at 94 points.

 

7-1-1 would do it for the Canucks, assuming then that we beat Vegas and they have a slightly worse record.

 

Drop an L against either Minny or Calgary on the road (assuming we win the other though) and against Edmonton in the final games, win the rest...

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55 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

LA is falling, their D really relies on Doughty so if they go .500 and win 4 games, that puts them at 94 points.

 

7-1-1 would do it for the Canucks, assuming then that we beat Vegas and they have a slightly worse record.

 

Drop an L against either Minny or Calgary on the road (assuming we win the other though) and against Edmonton in the final games, win the rest...

Yes.  And early in the season Edler stood up when Doughty was injured (that's what their coach said at the time ... ).... so losing both those guys .... ouch.   Vegas for sure is going to be our biggest challenge.   Stone is close to coming back (have no idea who they have to take out to fit him in - might just run with a shorter bench). 

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I get why our odds are so low. Even if we win 6 of 8, and LA only gets 3 W’s the rest of the way, we would only squeak in based on a tie-breaker. And that’s assuming Vegas doesn’t exist. Unfortunately I think LA probably picks up 8 points in the next few weeks (Columbus, Seattle, Blackhawks again, and one against the Ducks), and I have a hard time imagining us doing better than 5 of 8.

 

Who knows though…

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It's going to be interesting, and the finish is absolutely not only in our own hands. LA has been a .500 team over the last 10 games which, if continued, would place them with 95 points by the finish. We have been a .7 team over the last 10, which puts us at 94 points to end the season. So looking at LA alone, they will basically have to be a sub-500 team, OR we will need to win literally all the rest of our games. The 1 remaining game against them will of course be essential to win.

 

Additionally, Vegas is right there, and are 3 points ahead of us with same amount of games played. They also sport almost the same record in their last 10 as we do. My guess is that they are actually the ones who will squeak in, and both Vancouver and LA will not. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

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Here we go

 

Vancouver 10th in the west with 8 games left and 82 points:  Arizona, Dallas/Ottawa, Minnesota, Calgary, Seattle, LA/Edmonton.  2 back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Vegas 9th in the west with 8 games left 85 points:  Calgary, Edmonton, Jersey, Washington, San Jose, Dallas/Chicago, St Louis.  One back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Dallas 8th in the west with 9 games left 88 points:  Minnesota, San Jose, Vancouver, Edmonton/Calgary, Seattle, Vegas/Arizona, Anaheim.  2 back to backs left

https://www.nhl.com/stars/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Nashville 7th in the west with 9 games left 89 points:  Edmonton, Chicago/St Louis, Calgary, Tampa/Minnesota,  Calgary, Colorado/Arizona.  3 back to backs left.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Los Angeles 6th in the west with 7 games left 88 points:  Colorado*, Columbus, Anaheim, Chicago, Anaheim, Seattle/Vancouver:  1 Back to backs left (Avs game 2nd in 2 nights)

https://www.nhl.com/kings/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

This is where everything stands.  LA by far has the easiest schedule.  We absolutely cannot lose or give a single point to Dallas in that game or it's over.  Nashville has a game at hand but also the hardest schedule.  We literally need to go a minimum of 6-1-1 without losing to Dallas; and have Edmonton and Calgary stomp the crap out of Vegas and Dallas for us.  These are the games that matter the most.  It's entirely out of our hands as even going 8-0 is no guarantee.

 

To be completely honest, a Nashville collapse and Dallas going 3-5 would be the best possible eventuality for us.  But it's not a guarantee.

 

Make of this what you will

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On 4/10/2022 at 6:43 PM, -Vintage Canuck- said:

I have a feeling our last regular season game will decide whether we make the playoffs or not.

That seems pretty unlikely.  We are probably going to be 5-6 points out of a playoff spot once all is said and done.  That includes us needing to not just tie, but having to have one point more than the team in the last playoff spot due to the tiebreakers.

 

I am purely guessing that we end up around 90-92 points… the playoff bar will be around 95-97 points.

 

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It is easy to get excited about how well the Canucks are playing... but look at the records of the playoff teams in the West... basically nobody is sliding other than the Kings. In the last 10 games, the Canucks are 6-2-2... which is only sixth best of the top 10 teams in the West. 

 

The Canucks' 10 OT/SO losses are what will haunt them. 

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3 hours ago, Down by the River said:

It is easy to get excited about how well the Canucks are playing... but look at the records of the playoff teams in the West... basically nobody is sliding other than the Kings. In the last 10 games, the Canucks are 6-2-2... which is only sixth best of the top 10 teams in the West. 

 

The Canucks' 10 OT/SO losses are what will haunt them. 

Yes and to me that a bunch of BS bull crap.   Don't care if we were Dallas and that's why we got in (as in we were on the other side of it).   Shoot-outs and 3 x 3 shouldn't be weighed so heavily.   Zero incentive to win in regulation.   Gimmicks (shoot out) and training drills ( 3 x 3) shouldn't determine rankings in a team sport.    Total to ridiculous.   Bring back the tie game.   Or give 1.5 points to a OT win/SO and .5 a point to the loser.   Or throw away 100 years of stats and incentivize it 3-2-1. 

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The Oilers, Wild and Flames need to win tonight as well as the Canucks to maintain pace.

 

If the Preds, Stars and Knights all lose and the Canucks win it puts us no less than 5 total points back of potentially 6th in the west.

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On 4/11/2022 at 5:21 PM, DS-Kev said:

Doughty confirmed out for the season. Not sure if he is still as big a factor as he was before but still a loss for the Kings. 

Biggest concern is Vegas has got hot again winning 6 of their last 7 with Pacioretty back now too. 
 

  Kev

And now Stone.

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Updated race as of Monday April 18th.

 

Vancouver 10th in the west with 7 games left and 84 points:  Dallas/Ottawa, Minnesota, Calgary, Seattle/Edmonton.  Vancouver has 2 back to back sets left in 7 games.

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Vegas 9th in the west with with 6 games left and 87 points:  New Jersey, Washington, San Jose, Dallas/Chicago, St Louis.  Vegas has 1 back to back set left in 6 games.

https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Los Angeles 8th in the west with 5 games left and 90 points:  Anaheim, Chicago, Anaheim, Seattle/Vancouver.  Los Angeles has 1 back to back set left in 5 games.

https://www.nhl.com/kings/schedule/2022-04-01/PT

 

Nashville 7th in the west with 6 games left and 91 points:  Calgary, Tampa/Minnestoa, Calgary, Colorado/Arizona.  Nashville has 2 back to back sets left in 6 games.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Dallas 6th in the west with 7 games left and 91 points:  Vancouver, Edmonton/Calgary, Seattle, Vegas/Arizona, Anaheim.  Dallas has 2 back to back sets left in 7 games.

https://www.nhl.com/stars/schedule/2022-04-01/CT

 

Vancouver can achieve a maximum of 98 total points.

 

Right now Vancouvers route still goes through Vegas, LA and Nashville as their best possible chance to win.  Los Angeles is injured; Vegas can't seem to get it together and Nashville is absolutely all over the board.  Outside chance of catching Dallas if they win out and Dallas tanks as well. 

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