Popular Post Zfetch Posted June 5, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) Howdy Folks, Preface: Haven't made a post with substance re:Draft Prospects of this size on CDC since like 2014 but those threads have l0000oong disappeared Haven't made post liek this since 2019 for my website. BUT THE TIME HAS COME BABY (Lest we forget my hardon for Rasmus Andersson in the 2015 Draft Thread ) What This Is: This is a peer based analysis based on a "couch-potato" draft method so to speak. Let us not kid ourselves, none of us are watching these kids play. And even if some of us are, it is clear that many of us are very poor talent evaluators. If any of you managed to think a few years ago (including myself) that JT Miller would lead our team including Petey by like 40pts...well... Anyways, I will do a brief, simplified study. I will plot GP v Pts (basically pt/gm yes) and apply a very simple polynomial regression. Players who are standouts in their respective leagues are players to keep an eye on in the draft. It is a very lazy view of prospects, but in a simplified manner, one should expect those that are head and shoulders above their peers to continue to do so once they graduate to the NHL. It is a solid hypothesis, but again, a simplified and lazy one. A Key Example: This is a perfect example of what I hope to accomplish. McDavid was clearly ahead of the rest. He still is. Marner and Strome clearly had high NHL caliber potential....Strome isn't useless and Marner is elite...Magniapane is the surprise, and for the longest time he did not live up to the expectations of this chart. Last season? 35 GOALS. Alternatively, some players CDC or scouts were hyped for did not live up to it. Konecny was very hyped due to his relation to Horvat. He is an alright 2nd liner. Not completely out of line with what the chart suggests. Lawson Crouse? Looks like a bad pick! 6OA Pavel Zacha? Looks like a bad pick! Zachary Senyshyn? Looks like a bad pick! The one exception to this chart is Anthony Cirelli. However, he is a cute middle 6 player. Props to his work ethic for keeping him as an effective player in this league! You can now understand what I am trying to illustrate, so without further ado let us see some of the more promising players in this draft in a simplified offensive output orientated basis. Disclosure: I chose not to put extensive time into this, so the occasional player may be missed and I did not reconcile for players who played in two leagues say VHL/MHL. I will not go far into detail for leagues with few players, however I will make a brief comment. Something to account for does include that overagers are draft eligibles, and tend to outperform. This is something to discount in your view of a player based on the charts provided below. Hit it From the Back: A Review of Defenders BCHL Other than a guy named Ryan Hopkins being available, Tyson Jugnauth is the only standout in this league. He won top defender of the BCHL and appears to be ranked somewhere around the 5th round so he may be a dark horse late pick candidate if you believe scouts discount the BCHL akin to Makar and the AJHL! USDP Again, I do not intend to make a chart for every League+POS combo that has a small sample size, but one guy clearly stood out in this league and I wanted to chart it. In the past we have seen players out of US Junior Leagues undervalued (Boeser, Bobby Brink, McAvoy, etc), does that still hold true for Lane Hutson? Time will tell but hes not a bad shout. Quote A fantastic skater with second-gear acceleration. He possesses great vision of the ice and is reliable for a good first pass out of the zone, EPRinkside.com 2021 U20 SM-sarja Keep a small eye out for Kasper Kulonummi QMJHL Only interesting standout quality of QMJHL Dmen is that one of them is Jaroslav Spacek's son and hes not awful MHL From Russia, Artyom Duda is one of the limited standouts in the MHL for Dmen. J20 Nationell Calle Odelius is only mildly interesting out of this league. Also known for making it public that the Habs asked him some toon questions during his interview. USHL Appears to have some bangers in this league! Jacob Guévin and Luke Mittelstadt show promise! Well...they fit under the category of overagers that I mentioned to discount earlier. Dont expect much of these players, they are ranked in the later rounds for a reason. SHAMEFUL WHL Now for an actual banger! Both Kevin Korchinski and Denton Mateychuk are ranked highly and should be can't miss picks based on how beautifully they perform relative to their peers! OHL Google Pasha Mintyukov and you get Delta Hockey Academy for some reason. Anyways, him and Christian Kyrou are interesting. Chris may be ranked lower since he missed the 2021 cutoff by a few days...is him being one of the older players in the draft misranking him or is it fair? Time will tell. Party in the Front: A Review of Forwards Same method, maybe more predictive, time to examine forwards. Again, I'm trying to do this in a time efficient manner, so charts are as basic as possible via excel and I wont be posting all from all the leagues. But I will make mention of the studs to keep an eye on! BCHL Nobody super standout. Abbotsford's own Tyson Dyck may goose end up as an AHL forward or something one day. Czechia Petr Hauser is the best but not notable enough. USDP Lot of notable names here Is Isaac Howard underrated? He is a LW vs Cooley being a C but this chart does paint the idea that Logan may not be the biggest offensive dynamo from this league. Rutger McGroarty, Cutter Gauthier, and Frank Nazar should all be acceptable selections, but if given the chance, Canucks should pounce for "Ike" Howard. Stay away from fake Bedard and fake Hejduk clearly U20 SM-Sarja Aleksanteri Kaskimäki is in a three way race with other Fins for mildly interesting mid-draft selections. QMJHL Jordan Dumais is an absolute gem. This guy is criminally underranked. Why? Took no more than a few seconds to see that he is only 5'9". If there was a Brayden Point tier guy in this draft who becomes a mid-rounder mostly on the basis of being small, it is this guy. He is not being carried either, he led the Halifax Mooseheads skaters by 21 points as a draft eligible. His coach claims that he leads his line and its not hard to see from a stat view. Kid is a beauty and whoever select Dumais is batting high for the steal of the draft if his size proves not to be an issue. This guy broke onto the scene out of nowhere this year. Factor this in with his size, and this may indeed be a first round gamble that can be taken in the later rounds. Similar to Brayden Point maybe...what a beaut J20 Nationell Liam Öhgren and Ludwig Persson should be acceptable to above-average picks given how they fared quite well against their peers. USHL All the good players here are overagers so there is a yucky crop here. WHL King is an overager. Savoie does not look to be a poor choice... and... contrary to CDCs popular belief that meat and potato tier players can never be good, Conor Geekie is well above his peers and perhaps scouts are onto something about the fella! Jagger Firkus is also projected in the top two rounds despite being small. However, he stands out as a tier more productive than Geekie. Are scouts still heavily discounting size? Appears some things never change in hockey... OHL Morrison and Edmonds are overagers, so yes, Shane Wright is the standout of the OHL. Luca Del Bel Belluz should be a pretty solid 1st round pick. Owen Beck is somewhere in the crowd near the red line and fighting for relevance. He should be fairly good but is more of a "safe" pick in the sense that his upside may be capped to a certain level. And that sums it up! Other interesting tidbits: Nail Yakupov's cousin Raul Yakupov is draft eligible I reiterate there is a prospect named Ryan Hopkins that is eligible Scotty Niedermayer's son is eligible so is Nick Havelid's Jaroslav Spacek's son appears to be "alright" Reminder that some players and leagues were missed so don't come hollering at me about the Slovaks! RECAP (SIGNIFICANT STANDOUT PLAYERS): Lane Hutson (D) Kevin Korchinski (D) Denton Mateychuk (D) Pasha Mintyukov (D) Christian Kyrou (D) Isaac Howard (F) Logan Cooley (F) Rutger McGroarty (F) Cutter Gauthier (F) Frank Nazar (F) Jordan Dumais (F) Matt Savoie (F) Conor Geekie (F) Jagger Firkus (F) Shane Wright (F) Luca Del Bel Belluz (F) These players stand out relative to their peers and usually this is something that is continued throughout their careers. This draft appears to be deep...in an interesting way. When I had done this same analysis in 2019, there were not this many super interesting players. This year? Several players and they all play into the same theme... Undersized Players, Yet Again Discounted: Lane Hutson, the 5'8" dman has shown he can exceed. He is not ranked highly. Jordan Dumais, my favourite dark horse of this draft, is a 5'9" winger. He suddenly came onto the scene...he is not ranked highly. Jagger Firkus is 5'10". He is ranked as 2nd round fodder, but scouts clearly understand him a little better given that his size is the most acceptable of the three and that he plays in the OHL. If the Canucks draft any one of these exciting prospects, you know that you will have this monkey's approval! Regards, Edited June 26, 2022 by Zfetch Edited to replace missing 2015OHLFWDS image 10 7 7 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AV. Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 I've seen the light - bring in Jordan Dumais. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goal:thecup Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Good read; nice work; thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Mind Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 I always love some Fetchalytics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Nice post. Much appreciated. And I do love me a “cheeky” subheading: Hit it From the Back: A Review of Defenders 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 This is the quality $&!#posting I'm here for 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 uh, you said "brief" just kidding! This was very interesting and it's odd that so many rankings have some of these players so low. Dumais, for example is ranked low, maybe because he's 5'8", but Savoie is only 5'9" and he's in the Top 10. Seeing Howard ahead of Cooley, and in a group with McGroarty, Nazar, Gauthier and Snuggerud. Nice list of notable players though, I'll be keeping an eye on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballisticsports. Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Canucks are hiring, are you applying? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zfetch Posted June 5, 2022 Author Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) 44 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said: uh, you said "brief" just kidding! This was very interesting and it's odd that so many rankings have some of these players so low. Dumais, for example is ranked low, maybe because he's 5'8", but Savoie is only 5'9" and he's in the Top 10. Seeing Howard ahead of Cooley, and in a group with McGroarty, Nazar, Gauthier and Snuggerud. Nice list of notable players though, I'll be keeping an eye on them. Savoie was known about for many years now, Dumais has suddenly come on to the scene as a QMJHL rookie. His coach says: Quote Favreau said there are several reasons why Dumais has flown “under the radar” by NHL Central Scouting. He said his high-scoring forward entered the QMJHL as a rookie after playing south of the border, meaning many people didn’t know about him. He also said his game has only recently skyrocketed, and maybe many NHL scouts had already ranked him as being outside the first round. “He’s really the one leading the way, so I think he’ll have a strong NHL career at some point,” Favereau said. As his coach said, he was a late bloomer...showing up for 25pts in his last 10 games for instance. Via the athletic: Edited June 5, 2022 by Zfetch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allegend Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Thanks for the detailed information. It will be interesting to see where Dumais ends up going in the draft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qwags Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 This has Qwags' Seal of Approval. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goal:thecup Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 3 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said: Nice post. Much appreciated. And I do love me a “cheeky” subheading: Hit it From the Back: A Review of Defenders I gotta 'second that emotion'. A little humour to lighten up a detailed read. Well done; thanks again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawdzukes Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 I really liked Howard when I watched u18's. Need more first round picks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Awesome writeup! Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad_BOI_pete Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Thanks for the read! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kobayashi Maru Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Great review of some of the prospects that could be hidden gems. You should be at the Canucks draft table on draft day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now