Where does JTM rank?

[Got the Babych]

No agenda here, just trying to figure out what a "Realistic Path For Extension" means. I do have an opinion, but will reserve it. So where is JTM's value on this list? Recent forward signings, with age, AAV etc. Only stat is PPG, which is a simple regular season P/ GP. Obviously there are lots of stats and other factors involved.

[Got the Babych]

Sorted by age.

[Alflives]

6 x 8.25

Get ‘er done JR! 

[-AJ-]

When looking at comparable salaries, it's always good to look at context and determine three things:

 

1. How high was the salary cap when the contract was signed?

2. How old was the player when the contract was signed and how good were they back then, at the signing date?

3. How many years and what kinds of trade protection did they get?

 

Not saying that you didn't think of these things OP, but as you say, there are a lot of factors to consider in attempting to find fair comparables.

[DrJockitch]

I would put him a bit ahead of Rust, behind Malkin but given Malkin’s age it is a bit different. 
Forsberg has been more consistent scorer but is two years younger. 
8.5X6 would be best I would do. 

[Hairy Kneel]

I'm hoping that our top players syncopate their rates to add to team chemistry.  Hughes, Petie, Bo, Boes, and JT look down the line and do the math of what is not only their prime value, but what is good for the team to afford all the support pieces needed.

[Got the Babych]

9 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

When looking at comparable salaries, it's always good to look at context and determine three things:

 

1. How high was the salary cap when the contract was signed?

2. How old was the player when the contract was signed and how good were they back then, at the signing date?

3. How many years and what kinds of trade protection did they get?

 

Not saying that you didn't think of these things OP, but as you say, there are a lot of factors to consider in attempting to find fair comparables.

These are all recent, under the current salary cap, age and term are included. Contract details are a bit beyond this spreadsheet! But yes, a factor. So, considering as much as possible,who are your comparables?

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Got the Babych said:

These are all recent, under the current salary cap, age and term are included. Contract details are a bit beyond this spreadsheet! But yes, a factor. So, considering as much as possible,who are your comparables?

So what do you think is a fair contract for JTM?  

[Got the Babych]

20 minutes ago, Alflives said:

6 x 8.25

Get ‘er done JR! 

I would say that puts him at Forsberg value, roughly. Slightly less $, shorter term, but JT a bit older. JT plays center, but lower PPG.

[higgyfan]

14 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I would put him a bit ahead of Rust, behind Malkin but given Malkin’s age it is a bit different. 
Forsberg has been more consistent scorer but is two years younger. 
8.5X6 would be best I would do. 

Malkin's age and his inability to get through a season without a long term injury, really brings down his salary/term.

JT has had few injuries that take little time to heal.  Still, I think that he will not get the $/term that he/his agent may

think they can get. 

I would say your take is close. 

[BarnBurner]

Personally, even though he's turning 30, I'd put JT first or second. 

 

He's scoring over a PPG, plays hard, doesn't disappear when it matters most, excellent at face-offs and can kill penalties. 

[Got the Babych]

23 minutes ago, Alflives said:

So what do you think is a fair contract for JTM?  

I'm trying to hold off on my opinion! But, based solely on age and PPG, these should be comparables. The only Center here is Trochek, who I think is a good comparable, but JT has been much more durable which is valuable.

[hammertime]

7.5 x 8 60m

By the time he ages out our window will be closing so go long term keep the cap number down. 

 

I think if we go 6 years the number will be 9.5 which will be the end of Horvat as a Canuck. I'd go long term. Or let him walk at the end of the year if the Money just doesn't work. 

[-AJ-]

49 minutes ago, Got the Babych said:

These are all recent, under the current salary cap, age and term are included. Contract details are a bit beyond this spreadsheet! But yes, a factor. So, considering as much as possible,who are your comparables?

Ah, I didn't notice the recency of these contracts. Hard to find a great comparable, but based on the list, Rust and Gaudreau seem like two of the closest. Though I would put him closer to Gaudreau than Rust.

[DrJockitch]

39 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

Personally, even though he's turning 30, I'd put JT first or second. 

 

He's scoring over a PPG, plays hard, doesn't disappear when it matters most, excellent at face-offs and can kill penalties. 

One season, 0.713 career. 

[BarnBurner]

5 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

One season, 0.713 career. 

That's career wise. Last year was 1.24 ppg. He's been improving every year since he became a Canuck. 

 

Plus, as mentioned, adds much more to his game. 

[DrJockitch]

3 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

That's career wise. Last year was 1.24 ppg. He's been improving every year since he became a Canuck. 

 

Plus, as mentioned, adds much more to his game. 

One season does not make it his norm or what is expected on aging forward. Paying big on a career year for older player rarely works out. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by DrJockitch

[BarnBurner]

3 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

One season does not make it his norm or what is expected on aging forward. Paying big on a career year for older player rarely works out. 

Whatever. That wasn't even his contract year. 

 

I agree, watch what you pay at that age, but that doesn't take away from the reality that he is one of the top players in this league. 

 

Next year will tell the real story. 

[VancouverHabitant]

Good discussion OP...  

 

Johnny Gaudreau is about to turn 29 in a couple of weeks, 7 years x 9.75 mil.  

Mika Zibanejad is 29, 8 years x 8.5 mil.  

Gabe Landeskog was 28 when he signed for 8 years x 7 mil. 

Tomas Hertl is 28, 8 years x 8.1 mil  

 

What I believe would be a fair contract for both sides is something along the lines of 

6 years x 8.25 mil.  

 

I would also be happy with this deal.  JT Miller was far and away our best skater last year.  If we do this, then Bo Horvat can naturally fall in line with a 7 mil/year extension.  

[VancouverHabitant]

11 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

Whatever. That wasn't even his contract year. 

 

I agree, watch what you pay at that age, but that doesn't take away from the reality that he is one of the top players in this league. 

 

Next year will tell the real story. 

I think JT has already told us the real story:  he's the real deal.  

 

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