Gurn Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, beni said: You think he will have any trade value in 7 years? Brock is not signed for 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 58 minutes ago, beni said: You think he will have any trade value in 7 years? They should be trading him for anything they can get right now just to clear cap space I think the canucks obviously know his value will decrease years 6-7. Im hoping for at least 5 really good years where he is worth more than his contract and then we can retain and trade or take our lumps then. Miller's 8m is not the problem. In fact he's currently a 5.25 player playing above his pay grade. If he can turn his defensive game around and still put up points, I would say the 8m is a fair contract next year. When looking at underperforming players objectively (guys who currently aren't pulling their weight compared to salary), it's very easy. Boeser, Garland, OEL, Myers with Garland being borderline whether he belongs in the same conversation as the other 3. Those 4 eat up approx 25m of cap space. That's 30% of a 24 player NHL roster. Stillman at 1.35 is also a waste as he should be league min. If those 5 players played at their pay level currently, Canucks would easily be in a playoff spot. I was also guilty of piling on Miller but I took a step back and looked at the team. Miller at 5.25 has been underpaid for at least 3 years. He is still technically getting underpaid this year. We are however looking at next year and extrapolating that he will be terrible. How do we know this? What if there is a better defensive system and the coach really works with him off season on positioning and defensive awareness? I would say he is worth the cap hit then. Why aren't we foaming at the mouth going after the guys who actually aren't pulling their weight this year? Miller seems to be the new whipping boy... Looking at our current situation, here is what the players are worth OEL 4.5 Myers 4 Boeser 3 Garland 3 Thats 14.5m instead of 25m You'd have 11m in cap space if guys had proper contracts this year. Edited January 17, 2023 by CanucksJay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Gurn said: Brock is not signed for 7 years. Talking about Milsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CanucksJay said: Talking about Milsy But their comment was about Brock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, CanucksJay said: Talking about Milsy 34 minutes ago, Gurn said: But their comment was about Brock. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, CanucksJay said: I think the canucks obviously know his value will decrease years 6-7. Im hoping for at least 5 really good years where he is worth more than his contract and then we can retain and trade or take our lumps then. Miller's 8m is not the problem. In fact he's currently a 5.25 player playing above his pay grade. If he can turn his defensive game around and still put up points, I would say the 8m is a fair contract next year. When looking at underperforming players objectively (guys who currently aren't pulling their weight compared to salary), it's very easy. Boeser, Garland, OEL, Myers with Garland being borderline whether he belongs in the same conversation as the other 3. Those 4 eat up approx 25m of cap space. That's 30% of a 24 player NHL roster. Stillman at 1.35 is also a waste as he should be league min. If those 5 players played at their pay level currently, Canucks would easily be in a playoff spot. I was also guilty of piling on Miller but I took a step back and looked at the team. Miller at 5.25 has been underpaid for at least 3 years. He is still technically getting underpaid this year. We are however looking at next year and extrapolating that he will be terrible. How do we know this? What if there is a better defensive system and the coach really works with him off season on positioning and defensive awareness? I would say he is worth the cap hit then. Why aren't we foaming at the mouth going after the guys who actually aren't pulling their weight this year? Miller seems to be the new whipping boy... Looking at our current situation, here is what the players are worth OEL 4.5 Myers 4 Boeser 3 Garland 3 Thats 14.5m instead of 25m You'd have 11m in cap space if guys had proper contracts this year. Brock is at a 60 point pace, so about $110K per point Garland is at a 41 point pace, $117k per point. I filtered forwards with minimum 400 minutes played and out of a total of 283 players Brock is ranked 31st for points per minute 5 on 5 with good company: Garland is ranked 180, also not terrible in the company he is in but a bit disappointing. Miller at 213 is unacceptable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said: Brock is at a 60 point pace, so about $110K per point Garland is at a 41 point pace, $117k per point. I filtered forwards with minimum 400 minutes played and out of a total of 283 players Brock is ranked 31st for points per minute 5 on 5 with good company: Garland is ranked 180, also not terrible in the company he is in but a bit disappointing. Miller at 213 is unacceptable. Wow actually? That's crazy... How about Bo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, CanucksJay said: Wow actually? That's crazy... How about Bo? EP is #1 in the league, Kuz 11, Bo 14. We are actually getting incredible production from a number of players - Detroit for example doesn't have a forward in the top 100 while we have 5 in the top 31. When you filter the minutes to 200 that increases the numbers to 411 and we have Lazar at 406, Aman at 381, Joshua at 311, Dries at 296 etc I agree with your points though. Generally $100K per point is a rough estimate for the top value paid for an offensive forward. So ideally at $90k per point Boeser would be at $5.4 million and Garland at $3.7M. Myers is a difficult one. I'd say if we retained half his salary we could get a late round pick so I'd put hi at $3M. Right now he is at around $300k per point and OEL is at around $200k per point (doesn't really work the same way evaluating dmen). OEL at $4.5 million seems fair. Defence value is extremely hard to measure. Boeser - 5.4 Garland - 3.7 OEL - 4.5 Myers - 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said: EP is #1 in the league, Kuz 11, Bo 14. We are actually getting incredible production from a number of players - Detroit for example doesn't have a forward in the top 100 while we have 5 in the top 31. When you filter the minutes to 200 that increases the numbers to 411 and we have Lazar at 406, Aman at 381, Joshua at 311, Dries at 296 etc I agree with your points though. Generally $100K per point is a rough estimate for the top value paid for an offensive forward. So ideally at $90k per point Boeser would be at $5.4 million and Garland at $3.7M. Myers is a difficult one. I'd say if we retained half his salary we could get a late round pick so I'd put hi at $3M. Right now he is at around $300k per point and OEL is at around $200k per point (doesn't really work the same way evaluating dmen). OEL at $4.5 million seems fair. Defence value is extremely hard to measure. Boeser - 5.4 Garland - 3.7 OEL - 4.5 Myers - 3 RHD always carry a premium. Even ones that are borderline top 4 guys like Myers would be $4.5M+ in an open market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeanSeanBean Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, CanucksJay said: Miller's 8m is not the problem. In fact he's currently a 5.25 player playing above his pay grade. If he can turn his defensive game around and still put up points, I would say the 8m is a fair contract next year. I have absolutely zero faith Miller can turn around his defensive game. After getting this contract Miller talked extensively this summer and training camp about how he wanted to be more reliable defensively, and wanted to be known as one of the best 2 way guys in the game. He clearly targeted that all off season. The fruits of his labour are this season. His been atrocious defensively to the point where he is not trusted to play center at all. In my opinion, this is peak Miller, this is what we signed up for. A player who will likely be at near a ppg for the next 3 of 4 years, but play lazy uninspired hockey and be a liability in his own zone. The last few years of this contract are going to look terrible. Miller's doesn't have the defensive awareness to play a bottom 6 spot effectively, and he will very likely see a decrease in his foot speed over the next 2-3 years I found it alarming, though not surprised, JR said Miller won't be an issue with this team in a few years. In my eyes, he and OEL will very likely be the reason this team will struggle to build a contending team in our Petey/Hughes/Demko window. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 31 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said: EP is #1 in the league, Kuz 11, Bo 14. We are actually getting incredible production from a number of players - Detroit for example doesn't have a forward in the top 100 while we have 5 in the top 31. When you filter the minutes to 200 that increases the numbers to 411 and we have Lazar at 406, Aman at 381, Joshua at 311, Dries at 296 etc I agree with your points though. Generally $100K per point is a rough estimate for the top value paid for an offensive forward. So ideally at $90k per point Boeser would be at $5.4 million and Garland at $3.7M. Myers is a difficult one. I'd say if we retained half his salary we could get a late round pick so I'd put hi at $3M. Right now he is at around $300k per point and OEL is at around $200k per point (doesn't really work the same way evaluating dmen). OEL at $4.5 million seems fair. Defence value is extremely hard to measure. Boeser - 5.4 Garland - 3.7 OEL - 4.5 Myers - 3 Thanks for this. I was intrigued when I saw this and was looking around money puck as well. I wonder if pts/min 5v5 is a good evaluation... Last year , Miller was 50 and Horvat was 183. This year Horvat is 14. Jumping 169 spots doesn't seem like it's a stable metric. I think the best measure going forward would be on ice expected goal differential 5v5 per 60 min. Basically we want guys that are assets not liabilities. Each line we send out, we want them playing better than the opposing line. Who cares if you score 100 pts if your expected to give up 130 When looking at this metric, we see guys that play the right way at the top of the list with Bergeron with the top spot. Believe it or not, best Canuck is 277 which is Andrei Kuzmenko. Its very telling why we are in the basement of the league. All our star players give up more chances than they generate. Edit Petey is actually tops on the Canucks but ranking in the 230s. Bo is like 430 and Boeser is like 480. This confirms my eye test 5v5. Petey line usually does better than opposition line. This year, Horvat has been trading chances like Miller does. Podz also plays the right way. These are the types of guys we should be building around. Guys that will generate more chances than they allow Edited January 17, 2023 by CanucksJay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 40 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said: Brock is at a 60 point pace, so about $110K per point Garland is at a 41 point pace, $117k per point. I filtered forwards with minimum 400 minutes played and out of a total of 283 players Brock is ranked 31st for points per minute 5 on 5 with good company: Garland is ranked 180, also not terrible in the company he is in but a bit disappointing. Miller at 213 is unacceptable. Nice find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Shayster007 said: I have absolutely zero faith Miller can turn around his defensive game. After getting this contract Miller talked extensively this summer and training camp about how he wanted to be more reliable defensively, and wanted to be known as one of the best 2 way guys in the game. He clearly targeted that all off season. The fruits of his labour are this season. His been atrocious defensively to the point where he is not trusted to play center at all. In my opinion, this is peak Miller, this is what we signed up for. A player who will likely be at near a ppg for the next 3 of 4 years, but play lazy uninspired hockey and be a liability in his own zone. The last few years of this contract are going to look terrible. Miller's doesn't have the defensive awareness to play a bottom 6 spot effectively, and he will very likely see a decrease in his foot speed over the next 2-3 years I found it alarming, though not surprised, JR said Miller won't be an issue with this team in a few years. In my eyes, he and OEL will very likely be the reason this team will struggle to build a contending team in our Petey/Hughes/Demko window. I would like to see how he finishes off the year (if he's still here). I was very anti signing Miller last year. Constantly called him a gambler who beat the odds and hit the jackpot... We shouldn't be the guys that pay him. That was when rumors were floating around 9.5m. At 8m it's not ideal but it won't be what sinks the ship.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said: EP is #1 in the league, Kuz 11, Bo 14. We are actually getting incredible production from a number of players - Detroit for example doesn't have a forward in the top 100 while we have 5 in the top 31. When you filter the minutes to 200 that increases the numbers to 411 and we have Lazar at 406, Aman at 381, Joshua at 311, Dries at 296 etc I agree with your points though. Generally $100K per point is a rough estimate for the top value paid for an offensive forward. So ideally at $90k per point Boeser would be at $5.4 million and Garland at $3.7M. Myers is a difficult one. I'd say if we retained half his salary we could get a late round pick so I'd put hi at $3M. Right now he is at around $300k per point and OEL is at around $200k per point (doesn't really work the same way evaluating dmen). OEL at $4.5 million seems fair. Defence value is extremely hard to measure. Boeser - 5.4 Garland - 3.7 OEL - 4.5 Myers - 3 What site is that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, Warhippy said: What site is that?? Moneypuck https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostsOf1994 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said: EP is #1 in the league, Kuz 11, Bo 14. We are actually getting incredible production from a number of players - Detroit for example doesn't have a forward in the top 100 while we have 5 in the top 31. When you filter the minutes to 200 that increases the numbers to 411 and we have Lazar at 406, Aman at 381, Joshua at 311, Dries at 296 etc I agree with your points though. Generally $100K per point is a rough estimate for the top value paid for an offensive forward. So ideally at $90k per point Boeser would be at $5.4 million and Garland at $3.7M. Myers is a difficult one. I'd say if we retained half his salary we could get a late round pick so I'd put hi at $3M. Right now he is at around $300k per point and OEL is at around $200k per point (doesn't really work the same way evaluating dmen). OEL at $4.5 million seems fair. Defence value is extremely hard to measure. Boeser - 5.4 Garland - 3.7 OEL - 4.5 Myers - 3 there's a fromula in place that canucks management uses for forwards .. every 10 points = a million miller is on pace for roughly 75p in 82gp, also struggling this year. 5.25/8 m next year garland is on pace for 40-50 in 82gp, also struggling this year. 4.950 Mikheyev is on pace for 50-55 in 82gp,career year. 4.750 Horvat is on pace for 90points, though this is tbe outlier season. usually good for 50-60 over 82gp. 5.5 million Boeser is overpaid for his production, 6.650 for 45-55 points is unacceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Furthermore, if we have guys that rank high on the On Ice Expected Goals Differential per 60 min in 5v5 situation, we will inevitably generate more PP than PK. The game has changed to special teams. 5 v 5, teams are generally neutral but the special teams will dictate who wins the game in most situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, GhostsOf1994 said: there's a fromula in place that canucks management uses for forwards .. every 10 points = a million miller is on pace for roughly 75p in 82gp, also struggling this year. 5.25/8 m next year garland is on pace for 40-50 in 82gp, also struggling this year. 4.950 Mikheyev is on pace for 50-55 in 82gp,career year. 4.750 Horvat is on pace for 90points, though this is tbe outlier season. usually good for 50-60 over 82gp. 5.5 million Boeser is overpaid for his production, 6.650 for 45-55 points is unacceptable. Lol pretty much. Although just looking at points is such a poor metric. I bet Horvat saw Miller cheating offensively last season and then getting paid. He's prob thinking why not me too? And it's working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, GhostsOf1994 said: there's a fromula in place that canucks management uses for forwards .. every 10 points = a million miller is on pace for roughly 75p in 82gp, also struggling this year. 5.25/8 m next year garland is on pace for 40-50 in 82gp, also struggling this year. 4.950 Mikheyev is on pace for 50-55 in 82gp,career year. 4.750 Horvat is on pace for 90points, though this is tbe outlier season. usually good for 50-60 over 82gp. 5.5 million Boeser is overpaid for his production, 6.650 for 45-55 points is unacceptable. 10 points per million is the same as $100K per point haha so exactly what I said I calculate it out over an 82 game pace though. A guy who gets 40 points in 50 games and is injured for 32 is still worth more than a guy who gets 55 points in 82 games. But yes they are under performing a bit but from a forwards perspective the numbers are stellar compared to what we saw during the Benning era, and there were a bunch! Our forward group is actually very solid, and its not like we cheaped out cap on our defence either. For whatever reason our defensive systems are just a disaster - both goals allowed 5 on 5 and our near history worse PK. And with Mikheyev being an addition to improve that, and he has performed in that role (far in away our best penalty killer), how are the other guys so much worse? Its really bizarre JT was a guy seen as having intangibles - physical, leader, faceoffs, plays all forward positions etc. I would like to see him get moved for a smaller contract (as well as Horvat getting traded). In an ideal world we move Horvat to Boston with Carlo as the main piece coming back. For the teams listed in this thread, I wouldn't mind these type of deals Penguins - Carter or Kapanen, conditional 1st/2nd round pick, Calle Clang, Isaac Bellieveau Detroit - Robbi Fabbri, conditional 1st/2nd round pick, Antii Tuomisto New Jersey - Yegor Sharangovich, conditional 2nd/3rd round pick, Mackenzie Blackwood, Shakir Mukhamadullin (also sending Spencer Martin to NJ) Edited January 17, 2023 by canucklehead44 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpyone Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, CanucksJay said: Lol pretty much. Although just looking at points is such a poor metric. I bet Horvat saw Miller cheating offensively last season and then getting paid. He's prob thinking why not me too? And it's working. heck Conor McDoofus ALWAYS flees his own zone faster than a cheetah, with no nevermind for playing defence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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