Mid-point schedule analysis and playoff implications

[cleowin]

23 minutes ago, GritGrinder said:

I did the math on this on Dec. 20 so now is a good time for an update since Blast was nice enough to make this thread.

 

On Dec. 20 the Canucks were 16-17-4 36pts. At the time 92pts was the WC in the West and I did my "projections" based on them needing 93pts.

45 games left on Dec. 20 so in order to get to 93pts the Canucks needed to go 26-14-5 to get the 57pts needed to be at 93 and likely one of the 2 WC's. They've gone 4-4 since Dec. 20.

 

Jan. 7th the Canucks are 20-21-4 for 44 pts. Lets keep the 93pts WC threshold for the sake of this "projection". 49pts needed in 37 games. 23-11-3 minimum, so basically the Canucks can only lose a combined 14-16 games the rest of the way (give or take an OTL or 2). Other projections are below based on the WC being slightly lower or higher.

 

95pts--24-10-3

94pts--23-10-4

93pts--23-11-3

92pts--23-12-2

91pts--22-12-3

90pts--22-13-2

89pts--21-13-3

88pts--21-12-4

 

Worse case scenario (yes, other than the kids learning) would be to go .500 the rest of the way and finish with 81pts, no playoffs, no lottery and a pick in the 11-15 range.

This is why you need to be sitting at around 48-52 points at the 41 games played mark, that way it's not as difficult to make it into the playoffs during the stretch. This isn't impossible, but it's pretty much win 3-4 then lose 1, win 3-4, then lose 1. The canucks cant afford any slumps unless they can win like 8-10 straight.

[Rindiculous]

Just now, Shaelon said:

I won't be surprised if it only takes around 90-91 points this season to make it into the playoffs in the WC spots. However, the Central 4th & 5th spots are heating up and at the end of the season, it will probably be 5 teams in the central, 3 teams in the pacific

I can totally see Anaheim falling off a cliff.  They have some of the worst goal differential and corsi in the league.  I would still place my bets on one team from the central and one from the Pacific on making it to the dance.  SJ, Vegas, and Calgary will lock down the division and Edmonton and Vancouver will compete for a WC.

[cleowin]

Just now, Rindiculous said:

I can totally see Anaheim falling off a cliff.  They have some of the worst goal differential and corsi in the league.  I would still place my bets on one team from the central and one from the Pacific on making it to the dance.  SJ, Vegas, and Calgary will lock down the division and Edmonton and Vancouver will compete for a WC.

Dont forget Colorado & Dallas are red hot right now and Minnesota is now picking up steam, it's going to be real tough for the Canucks to beat out them. Edmonton was on a nose dive until yesterday's defeat against the Ducks, so I dont know what happens with them.

[BlastPast]

Here's a useful site to see where teams are at using point percentage as opposed to merely points; this accounts for games in hand. It also shows each teams record over their last ten so you can see what form they are in .  http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

 

As you can see , Canucks are at the back of a four team queue for the final wild card spot.  All teams ahead (Ana, Edm, Min) have all been struggling over their last 10.

[Shift-4]

Last year teams needed a winning percentage above .500 to make it to the playoffs.

3 teams last year missed playoffs with that winning percentage.

Based on last year it is fair to say a team needs to win at least 45 games to get in (to guarantee a spot).

 

The Canucks would have to win 25 of their remaining 37 games to get in.   

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Shift-4 said:

Last year teams needed a winning percentage above .500 to make it to the playoffs.

3 teams last year missed playoffs with a winning percentage.

Based on last year it is fair to say a team needs to win at least 45 games to get in (to guarantee a spot).

 

The Canucks would have to win 25 of their remaining 37 games to get in.   

I know our guys are trying like crazy to make the playoffs, but (at this point of our rebuild) I don't know if a high draft pick is better in the long run?

[Glug Datt]

I feel that short of getting incredible offers on vets, Jim pretty much stays put this tdl, no matter where we are

 

we're not contending this year or the next few, and the assets we have to move are still useful when healthy. I don't see the sense in moving big parts.

 

any playoff experience the boys get will only benefit down the road. if we're in, great, if not so be it. 

 

selling to tank guarantees nothing but more losses. 

[Seannnp]

I'm sure I'm not the only one but I am hoping that we lose the a majority of the games from now till the trade deadline and are completely out of the playoffs. I simply do not want to take any chances as being potential buyers. After the deadline, lets hope the Canucks go back to respectable hockey, bring up a few guys from Utica to get a good look, sign Hughes and see what we have in him at the NHL level, etc.

 

We are not ready for the playoffs and whilst it would be quite valuable our young stars, I think it would be far more beneficial to see what we have in a few others and really cement a core moving forward. Is Dahel, MacEwan or others going to be a part of that core? This year is great to figure those things out and concentrate on a playoff push next year when we have a tight knit group of players that are going to be a part of the future of this club and have an opportunity to really create some chemistry and see where everyone fits on the team.

 

Also, it only helps us cement a greater chance at the lottery. As long as we are in the bottom 6-8, we are going to get a great player. With a few good/great trades and a stockpile of picks we put ourselves in position to stock our cupboards and maybe steal a few diamonds in the rough, later in the 1st and in later rounds ala Boeser, Gaudette. Who knows maybe a few guys will slide down to later rounds and fall in the Canucks laps (1st rounder dropping to 2nd). We will also have a better indication of who we have (after the trade deadline and draft) and how we are from winning a playoff round.

 

Goal isn't just to make the playoffs its to at the very least win a round or two. How this team is coming together, I think we are 1 year maaaaybe 2 years at the most before we find ourselves at the top of the conference and are a real threat in the playoffs to do some damage.

[Nucker 67]

This isn't a great year to make the playoffs, as they won't go anywhere with Baertschi, Goldobin, Stecher and Pouliot in the lineup. Virtanen has taken a step back it seems as well (inconsistent). Pettersson continues to be targeted and there is no response from his team mates. I'm just hoping he can stay healthy for the rest of the year.

 

I see them possibly making it next year though.

[Alflives]

Just now, NUCKER67 said:

This isn't a great year to make the playoffs, as they won't go anywhere with Baertschi, Goldobin, Stecher and Pouliot in the lineup. Virtanen has taken a step back it seems as well (inconsistent). Pettersson continues to be targeted and there is no response from his team mates. I'm just hoping he can stay healthy for the rest of the year.

 

I see them possibly making it next year though.

Bring up Gadjovic and see what we got in him.  Play him with Petey, and let him bop.  

[cleowin]

Min just used up its “free” win against mtl tonight, so its crucial they lose the next one, canucks remain 1 pt back but sit in 10th.

[oldnews]

On 1/6/2019 at 3:43 PM, BlastPast said:

With  a few days off at roughly the middle of the season I thought I would take a look at the schedule:

-So far (45 games)

-Now until Feb. 25th  trade deadline (17 games)

-Home stretch (20 games) 

 

First , let's compare these three periods using three quick and dirty metrics to measure difficulty.

-% of games @home 

-% of games Vs. playoff team (This obv. changes with some teams day-to-day but we will use teams in on this date for our purposes)

-Average days off per game (Counts all non game days. Does not factor for travel/practice days)

 

So far:

- 42.2 % home games

- 62.2% Vs. Playoff team.

-1.11 days off/ game

 

Between now and TDL

-58.8% home games

- 41.2 % Vs. playoff team

-1.88 days off/game. (This is inflated largely by the hiatus and All-star break ; but still a day off is a day off)

 

Home stretch:

-60% home games

- 50 % Vs. playoff team

- 1.11 day off/game

 

    As you can see the next 7 weeks is an opportunity to pick up points but then the schedule toughens up somewhat to close out the regular season.

 

As much as some might not be in the mood to talk playoff possibilities it is too early to completely rule out the possibility.  That being said , the clock is ticking and points need to be earned in order to keep it in the realm of the prudently pursuable .  First, let's look at the numbers and what needs to be achieved in order for that to be the case.

 

Right now 88 points is the pace to occupy the final playoff spot in the west.  This could obviously change between now and the end of the season and will need to be exceeded in order to be more confident but we'll use it as a benchmark for this analysis.  The Canucks are currently at 44 points so will need a minimum of 44 more points in order to potentially qualify.  That will need to be earned in the remaining 37 games , unless the league makes an exception and allows us to play more games to make up the points(they probably won't...stupid Bettman !).  Is this doable?  It will be difficult for sure. 

 

       Between now and Feb. 25th there will no doubt be a lot of talk regarding the teams actions at the trade deadline but I think the team's performance (and most importantly points achieved) between now and then will ultimately dictate which way they lean.  So what's the threshold ?  If an 88 point pace gains entry and with a not that easy 20 game stretch left after TDL I would say(off the top of my head) at least 85 point pace would still put them healthily in the hunt . Substantially less than that and I think it becomes possibly more attractive to pursue TDL value and let the chips fall where they may as far as playoffs/ lottery odds.  That means that in the next 17 games they need to earn 20-21 points to reach that pace.  Every missed point between now and then is a nail in the coffin.

 

All of this , in my opinion of course. I kind of just spewed this out so apologies if it's not exactly Shakespeare

 

Thanks for the bolded part - very interesting.

The rest, of course, is highly unpredictable/contingent - but to this point, with that breakdown, the losses of EP x 2, Edler, Tanev, Sutter, Beagle.....the results imo have been somewhat remarkable despite the long losing streak and end of the recent road trip.

At least one thing that schedule indicates is that the grind down the stretch should not be as daunting for the young guys as it could otherwise be - assuming of course it's not a continuation of the M.A.S.H. reality that has intervened so often over the past three years and first half of this one.

But the schedule - and the fairly dramatic shifts in road games and quality of competition is interesting.  Still won't get swept up expecting results not knowing who's going to be in the lineup, or how well those guys that have carried a lot of the load thus far are going to sustain, but the breakdown above could be a bit of quarter.

[luckylager]

9 hours ago, Shift-4 said:

Last year teams needed a winning percentage above .500 to make it to the playoffs.

3 teams last year missed playoffs with a winning percentage.

Based on last year it is fair to say a team needs to win at least 45 games to get in (to guarantee a spot).

 

The Canucks would have to win 25 of their remaining 37 games to get in.   

It's not impossible given their schedule, but highly unlikely

 

9 hours ago, Alflives said:

I know our guys are trying like crazy to make the playoffs, but (at this point of our rebuild) I don't know if a high draft pick is better in the long run?

They want to win every game they play, it's what athletes do. Play to win, win to keep playing. #jockmath

 

"Better in the long run" is dependant on which kid actually reaches his ceiling vs the kid that doesn't.

 

Thinking that the best players are always found in the top 10 is foolish, you know that. Boeser is a recent example, Karlsson is my favorite in that argument lately.

 

It seems we have amazing scouting, the development program looks to be pretty decent-ish... which will both lend to long term success, hopefully. 

 

We're at a very exciting point in the rebuild right now. Elias has time-space-warped our expectations of the real found'ations of this team and what we hope they'll hold up..

 

Long story short, Alf, don't ever be torn as to whether the team should be WINNING or losing. 

 

Winning is awesome. Losing sucks. 

 

I feel like we've talked about this before.

[JamesB]

8 hours ago, Alflives said:

Bring up Gadjovic and see what we got in him.  Play him with Petey, and let him bop.  

Not sure if you are serious, Alf. But Gadjovich is sometimes a healthy scratch in Utica and has 4 pts in 20 games -- at the AHL level. He has zero chance of a call-up and needs to focus on showing he can be an AHL regular.

 

2 hours ago, Shaelon said:

Min just used up its “free” win against mtl tonight, so its crucial they lose the next one, canucks remain 1 pt back but sit in 10th.

I think it is a bit early for scoreboard watching in the sense of watching specific teams and tracking games in hand. But, I think Shift-4 has the right overall take below.

 

9 hours ago, Shift-4 said:

Last year teams needed a winning percentage above .500 to make it to the playoffs.

3 teams last year missed playoffs with a winning percentage.

Based on last year it is fair to say a team needs to win at least 45 games to get in (to guarantee a spot).

 

The Canucks would have to win 25 of their remaining 37 games to get in.   

Yes, at this stage the odds are clearly against making the playoffs. Right now Hockey Reference has the Canucks at 23% to make the playoffs. (See https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi).

 

So it could happen and being healthy makes a big difference. And the toughest road trips are behind them. So the Canucks are still in the playoff conversation but have an uphill road ahead. .

[cleowin]

29 minutes ago, JamesB said:

Not sure if you are serious, Alf. But Gadjovich is sometimes a healthy scratch in Utica and has 4 pts in 20 games -- at the AHL level. He has zero chance of a call-up and needs to focus on showing he can be an AHL regular.

 

I think it is a bit early for scoreboard watching in the sense of watching specific teams and tracking games in hand. But, I think Shift-4 has the right overall take below.

 

Yes, at this stage the odds are clearly against making the playoffs. Right now Hockey Reference has the Canucks at 23% to make the playoffs. (See https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi).

 

So it could happen and being healthy makes a big difference. And the toughest road trips are behind them. So the Canucks are still in the playoff conversation but have an uphill road ahead. .

Except I think its extremely important that this canucks team not fall too far behind, it might still be early, but ideally you want to stay within 3-5 points of a playoff spot at all times.

[mll]

10 hours ago, Shaelon said:

Dont forget Colorado & Dallas are red hot right now and Minnesota is now picking up steam, it's going to be real tough for the Canucks to beat out them. Edmonton was on a nose dive until yesterday's defeat against the Ducks, so I dont know what happens with them.

Colorado lost 11 of their last 15 games - they are 4-8-3.  

 

[cleowin]

1 minute ago, mll said:

Colorado lost 11 of their last 15 games - they are 4-8-3.  

 

Yes you are right, so they are slumping, but I dont see Canucks catching them, but I guess we'll see.

 

Tomorrow's scoreboard watch:

 

**BOS BEATS MIN** AS min has used it's "free" win as I call it, they must lose tomorrow to keep Vancouver 1 pt back, if they win, Vancouver falls 3 points back. I could take an OTL/SOL so that it's only a 2 point defecit.

 

STL Vs. DAL, well... STL is starting to win and have several games in hand, but its better for STL to beat Dallas to keep them just 4 points up on Vancouver.

 

WPG Beats COL - This keeps WC1 at a 4 pt back and reduces the games in hand.

 

SJS Beats EDM - This avoids a potential 3 way tie for WC2, but.. it's not a huge loss if they win or even get one point.

[PrinceGeorgeGoon]

I hope we draft under 10th. So we'll get 12th.

[Googlie]

I would never count out any team with Pettersson on it.

He wants to make the playoffs, and if we do, anything could happen.

He is one driven, competitive kid

Calder, Hart, Ross and Smythe are etched into his DNA (prolly Selke, Lady Byng and Masterton too)

 

 

[alfstonker]

I don't like the premise of there being "playoff teams" we will struggle against and "non playoff teams" where the inference is we will get points. For as long as I remember that is not how the Canucks seem to operate. 

We seem to raise our game against the better teams and fall asleep against the so called "poorer" teams in the league. 

My conclusion is, it matters little where the other team sits or who they are but is more to do with "how we feel and are we motivated"

 

Personally I just want to see this team win every night and I don't really care about "designing" our draft position. We are the Canucks, nothing ever works out to plan and we should be learning to live with that by this time. All that matters is THE WIN and leave the rest to the Hockey Gods.