Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW

[baumerman77]

That'd be pretty lofty expectations for him to have the career the Sedins have, but there are very few prospects anywhere that would meet that anyway. I doubt 2011 had much to do with it, even if stylistically Benning seems to favour a North American style game.

Then again, Taylor Pyatt at 9th overall in the same draft as the Sedins didn't guarantee anyone else a cup either, and he was projected to be a little better than he turned out to be as well. Nothing's a guarantee, and if you have a chance to draft high end skill and won't likely see another pick as high in awhile, you should think long and hard before passing on it.

This last bit is going to be a shock for some of the rah rah fan boys around here. Horvat did very well and 25 points in a rookie season is great, but he was also sheltered somewhat and as his role increases we'll likely see that sophomore slump. That's not to say he doesn't rebound and continue to get better afterwards (or maybe he doesn't even fall back a step) but it's also possible he doesn't really get that much better offensively with added responsibility and maybe he does fit better as a 3rd line center. 30-40 points would be pretty good in that case every year and he'd likely be a very solid player sought after at the deadline and finish his career having played for a few contenders as a top rental pickup.

Virtanen is in the same boat. He has yet to have that same type of season like Horvat did, not breaking out with more offence with the Hitmen, and not having a chance yet to do it in the NHL. Maybe he doesn't, and certainly he's not guaranteed to have the same path, but he could still be an excellent player even if he doesn't. But then again, he could never quite materialize to that potential as well - except some people don't want to hear a measured opinion (note I didn't say negative).

I agree with this analysis.

Next year will be very important in terms of Horvat's development. The thing I am most interest to see is where his even strength shooting percentage ends up. He had a very high even strength shooting percentage at 14.63%. That is very high and is very likely to regress if he shot at a normal 10% he would have scored 8 even strength goals this year vs the 12 goals that he did score. For those who don't know, shooting percentage is highly influenced by luck and randomness, that is to say that a large component of it is not a repeatable skill. In this regard if I had to guess I would say Horvat was "lucky" and next year we will see a regression in his shooting percentage (which will likely result in a similar goal total because he will likely see an increase in playing time). However, Horvat could be an outlier who actually does normally produce a shooting percentage of 14% at even strength which I am really hoping for.

Virtanen I think had the opposite shooting percentage than Horvat this year. I believe he suffered an unsustainably low shooting percentage that will regress up next year (to be fair in his draft year his shooting percentage was likely unsustainably high). However, I don't have any data to back-up this position with Virtanen. It is more speculation on my part.

[two drink minimum]

Just watching Jake skate and be physical like he was for Utica tells me he has an NHL game to him. He is more often the aggressor in puck battles and is able knock players around and off balance with relative ease. I think he has a confidence that will translate well in the big leagues. He could crack the lineup next year with a good camp no doubt

[Canuck Surfer]

I don't think Jake will ever be the goal scorer that Nylander/Ehlers will likely be. He's not that kind of player. It's like comparing Nazzy and Burt. Not that I think these players will be like...blah blah blah.

I can see Jake being more like a Shane Doan kind of player. He'll probably get +20g a year, but his speed and physicality will be of more importance to the team. It's too early to assess Jake's leadership skills or his 2-way game (which are Doan's greatest strengths).

If he ends up more like Torres I would be disappointed, but still think there's a need for that kind of player. Luckily, there's no indication that Jake's hits are dirty or late. He seems to have very good timing.

Shinks and Baer are the prospects that (hopefully) will score the big goals. Jake will shake up the opponent's top players and mess up their game.

Wasn't Torres a 5th overall pick?

Not judging. Just saying...

Kempe is a decent prospect. More of a battler than Nylander. But not as skilled.

When I hear of these better prospects available at 6th though, based on stats only, I'm just assuming everyone means Pastrnak?

I also like what Sonny Milano brings to the table. And Larkins. None of these guys are as complete a player as Virtanen, but they have skill.

I wish Ehlers and Nylander well on their NHL teams though. I seriously hope that they become the best players on their teams for the next 20 years. Dead serious.

Wasn't Pastrnak the first pick after McCann? Not Jake...

[JeremyCuddles]

They were 0-2 with Virtanen

1-2 without Virtanen.

Virtanen shifted momentum towards the Monarchs and cost Utica the series

[messier's_elbow]

I see jake as a Krieder clone and that's the kind of player we need for future playoff runs. I like nylander but he's a pp specialist and ehlers is redundant we already have bart and shink. I honestly don't get the whining at all...

[Edlerberry]

he played significantly fewer minutes than other top prospects.

[Edlerberry]

I see jake as a Krieder clone and that's the kind of player we need for future playoff runs. I like nylander but he's a pp specialist and ehlers is redundant we already have bart and shink. I honestly don't get the whining at all...

saying ehlers is redundant because we have baertschi and shinkaruk is like saying patrick kane is redundant because we have frolik and hudler

[TOMapleLaughs]

That'd be pretty lofty expectations for him to have the career the Sedins have, but there are very few prospects anywhere that would meet that anyway. I doubt 2011 had much to do with it, even if stylistically Benning seems to favour a North American style game.

Then again, Taylor Pyatt at 9th overall in the same draft as the Sedins didn't guarantee anyone else a cup either, and he was projected to be a little better than he turned out to be as well. Nothing's a guarantee, and if you have a chance to draft high end skill and won't likely see another pick as high in awhile, you should think long and hard before passing on it.

I'm wondering how you guys assume that we won't pick as high in awhile considering the downslope the Sedins, who are still counted on here for offense here, are on? Wishful thinking?

It seems that Benning saw Nylander and Ehlers as I do. Their one-dimensional skill just wasn't all that noteworthy, not enough to make up for their respective flaws, and are hardly what we'd want our team to be built around. We could do better, and we will.

[aGENT]

I believe they will come out with a confidence interval on their new Prospect Cohort Success Model once they finish tweaking it. It is still in its infancy so I am fine with them using vague terminology like "most likely" because I believe they are basing that on the empirical data of their model (perhaps later when it is more developed they will get more specific). As a side note, Drance is still fairly active on Canucks Army.

I would love to know how people on CDC arrive upon their projections and probabilities of players' success/potential. I am sure the vast majority do not employ a model of any sort, and certainly not a model that is rigorous to the point codifying it. If anyone has such a model that projects Horvat to most likely a first or second line center I would love to see your methodology. I suspect most people claiming that Horvat projects into a top 2 line center are basing it on anecdotal evidence and wishful thinking.

I use the sniff test personally Some of those hockey bags though!!

[messier's_elbow]

saying ehlers is redundant because we have baertschi and shinkaruk is like saying patrick kane is redundant because we have frolik and hudler

So you think ehlers is a future conn smythe winner and future hall of famer? We should start calling you snypers jr.

[messier's_elbow]

he played significantly fewer minutes than other top prospects.

Yeah that's true he needs to work on conditioning but it also has to do with the fact he plays a robust game and that takes more energy.

[WestlockWarrior]

Would rather Jake spend the year in Calgary getting 20 min a night and pp1 time and getting his accuracy back up then go to world jrs then Utica playoff run. 9 games w. The Canucks is the most I want for him w. The big club.

I'd prefer this development over a full year w. The Canucks getting 10 min a night on the 4th line w. No PP time or PK time. This in my opinion is how u stunt growth and can force Jake to become nothing but the next Torres.

Let him develop and be patient w. Him and this guy will become a 30.30 player putting fear in the other teams.

[SamJamIam]

I believe they will come out with a confidence interval on their new Prospect Cohort Success Model once they finish tweaking it. It is still in its infancy so I am fine with them using vague terminology like "most likely" because I believe they are basing that on the empirical data of their model (perhaps later when it is more developed they will get more specific). As a side note, Drance is still fairly active on Canucks Army.

I would love to know how people on CDC arrive upon their projections and probabilities of players' success/potential. I am sure the vast majority do not employ a model of any sort, and certainly not a model that is rigorous to the point codifying it. If anyone has such a model that projects Horvat to most likely a first or second line center I would love to see your methodology. I suspect most people claiming that Horvat projects into a top 2 line center are basing it on anecdotal evidence and wishful thinking.

I think the key words there are "I believe" because with no CI, their findings are useless-to-misleading.

CA said that Horvat would be a 3C, then hedged their bets by saying he could be a 1C. We'll say that is 2 sigma in the upward direction, implying that he could fall an equal amount down to a 1C in the AHL or a 13th forward.

Yeah, what a blessing their model was. Their implied confidence interval means that with all that data they predict that Horvat would probably make the NHL. Bang up job CA, next they'll predict that all 6 of the Lotto 6/49 numbers will be between 1 and 49

Edited June 23, 2015 by SamJamIam

[Grape]

Travis Sanheim-17th overall pick for PHI had a better statistical year than his teammate Virtanen, and he's supposed to be a physical, defensive defenceman.

Just pointing it out lol

Edited June 23, 2015 by Grape

[baumerman77]

I think the key words there are "I believe" because with no CI, their findings are useless-to-misleading.

CA said that Horvat would be a 3C, then hedged their bets by saying he could be a 1C. We'll say that is 2 sigma in the upward direction, implying that he could fall an equal amount down to a 1C in the AHL or a 13th forward.

Yeah, what a blessing their model was. Their implied confidence interval means that with all that data they predict that Horvat would probably make the NHL. Bang up job CA, next they'll predict that all 6 of the Lotto 6/49 numbers will be between 1 and 49

So are you saying that you thought Horvat was more likely to be a 1C or 2C over a 3C or 4C? It wasn't just Canucks Army who projected that. Most scouts at the 2013 draft also projected him as most likely a 3C. What reasons/evidence do you have for thinking he would likely be better than 3C?

[Shiftynifty]

So are you saying that you thought Horvat was more likely to be a 1C or 2C over a 3C or 4C? It wasn't just Canucks Army who projected that. Most scouts at the 2013 draft also projected him as most likely a 3C. What reasons/evidence do you have for thinking he would likely be better than 3C?

I think "most" scouts said he would be the "ideal" 3C in the league. Top six center potential with the right line-mates. His playoff performance made me doubt CA's prediction to be quite honest.

[Shiftynifty]

Travis Sanheim-17th overall pick for PHI had a better statistical year than his teammate Virtanen, and he's supposed to be a physical, defensive defenceman.

Just pointing it out lol

And by pointing it out, what have you achieved? Should we all just be pessimistic about our Canucks prospects and completely dump on them? It is weird to see how many people can not see reality and want to build a time machine. I guess Sedins will never rebound due to age decline and trade Edler for a 2nd or 3rd because of -39 for a year. Am I pessimistic enough now?

[baumerman77]

I think "most" scouts said he would be the "ideal" 3C in the league. Top six center potential with the right line-mates. His playoff performance made me doubt CA's prediction to be quite honest.

His NHL performance doesn't influence whether or not CA's probability prediction was accurate or inaccurate. For example, he could become the best player in the NHL and that would not mean that CA's probability prediction was wrong.

[Shiftynifty]

His NHL performance doesn't influence whether or not CA's probability prediction was accurate or inaccurate. For example, he could become the best player in the NHL and that would not mean that CA's probability prediction was wrong.

Predictions have him trending one way and his actual performance could have him trending another way. I am uncertain about CA's predictions because they always leave an escape route for themselves when they are wrong and take full credit when they are right; it is like writing nothing at all.

[canuckledraggin]

I believe they will come out with a confidence interval on their new Prospect Cohort Success Model once they finish tweaking it. It is still in its infancy so I am fine with them using vague terminology like "most likely" because I believe they are basing that on the empirical data of their model (perhaps later when it is more developed they will get more specific). As a side note, Drance is still fairly active on Canucks Army.

I would love to know how people on CDC arrive upon their projections and probabilities of players' success/potential. I am sure the vast majority do not employ a model of any sort, and certainly not a model that is rigorous to the point codifying it. If anyone has such a model that projects Horvat to most likely a first or second line center I would love to see your methodology. I suspect most people claiming that Horvat projects into a top 2 line center are basing it on anecdotal evidence and wishful thinking.

Yeah I don't know. Maybe they actually watch the players play hockey or something ridiculous like that. Is there a way to quantify a hit from JV when he is carrying the puck and launches a 200+ lb man through the air. Or taking a shot that rips through the net, can I plug that into your model?

And nope nobody told me an anecdote about how Bo would become a second liner. While it may still be wishful thinking, based on the first hand evidence that I witnessed last year, Bo does have second line potential. I know this because I watched him go head to head with Toews and other star centers in the league and he looked excellent.

Stats can only go so far. These models run by computers may tell you something, but they are going to be wrong much of the time as well. I can hear Obi-wan right now. 'Let go Luke' ...'trust your feelings'...