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Edmonton Oilers Race to 5th First Overall Pick in 7 Years


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53 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Nope, goes in reverse order from just outside the playoffs back to the last place team and then just in the playoffs to first place team. That way 'tanking' is likely to only get you a 10-15 pick unless you fluke a lotto win.

It would lead to far more teams actually trying to compete IMO.

 

Wow. It would never fly then. 
Let's say it worked and teams stopped tanking. Then those bottom 5 teams might never get out of the bottom.

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45 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Nope, goes in reverse order from just outside the playoffs back to the last place team and then just in the playoffs to first place team. That way 'tanking' is likely to only get you a 10-15 pick unless you fluke a lotto win.

It would lead to far more teams actually trying to compete IMO.

 

I don't think that is a fair notion to the players on bottom feeding teams that they aren't trying to compete. I despise losing. I can't stand it. Even if my team sucks, I still don't want to lose. That hate for losing is likely much higher when you are a top end athlete in your respective sport.

 

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3 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

Wow. It would never fly then. 
Let's say it worked and teams stopped tanking. Then those bottom 5 teams might never get out of the bottom.

There's some bottom 5 teams that can't seem to get out of the basement even with years of top 5 picks.

They'd still have a shot at the lotto and 10-15 picks still tend to be pretty good players.

Best manage your team well.

The league needs to stop rewarding poor management and performance.

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1 minute ago, RonMexico said:

I don't think that is a fair notion to the players on bottom feeding teams that they aren't trying to compete. I despise losing. I can't stand it. Even if my team sucks, I still don't want to lose. That hate for losing is likely much higher when you are a top end athlete in your respective sport.

 

Nobody said the players aren't trying to compete. Players/coaches don't tank. Managements tank.

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1 minute ago, J.R. said:

There's some bottom 5 teams that can't seem to get out of the basement even with years of top 5 picks.

They'd still have a shot at the lotto and 10-15 picks still tend to be pretty good players.

Best manage your team well.

The league needs to stop rewarding poor management and performance.

:lol: to the first line.  So true.

It would be very interesting to see the plan in action. And it should provide for better playoff races. This time of year along with the first round of the playoffs is the best time of year for the league as a whole. Why not do something that puts more emphasis on it and emphasis on winning. 
 

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Just now, Shift-4 said:

:lol: to the first line.  So true.

It would be very interesting to see the plan in action. And it should provide for better playoff races. This time of year along with the first round of the playoffs is the best time of year for the league as a whole. Why not do something that puts more emphasis on it and emphasis on winning. 
 

This.

Those #10-20 teams will all be fighting like hell to either get in the playoffs or as consolation for just missing, get a damn good pick.

The # 20-30 teams will be trying to do anything they can to scratch and claw up to at least a 5-10 pick. It rewards competition and winning rather than losing.

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11 minutes ago, J.R. said:

There's some bottom 5 teams that can't seem to get out of the basement even with years of top 5 picks.

They'd still have a shot at the lotto and 10-15 picks still tend to be pretty good players.

Best manage your team well.

The league needs to stop rewarding poor management and performance.

The NHL hates the middle class! 

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3 minutes ago, J.R. said:

This.

Those #10-20 teams will all be fighting like hell to either get in the playoffs or as consolation for just missing, get a damn good pick.

The # 20-30 teams will be trying to do anything they can to scratch and claw up to at least a 5-10 pick. It rewards competition and winning rather than losing.

Call it the Shame on Edmonton draft change.

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11 hours ago, J.R. said:

I actually liked an idea i heard, submitted by a listener to 1040 yesterday. The top 14 draft picks get assigned in reverse order/best odds at the lottery.

So team #17 (not team 30) gets highest odds at 1st over all and after the first three lottery picks it would continue in reverse order until they playoff teams. So say teams 17, 18 and 19 actually got the 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks (as per their better odds) the draft order would be:

17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11...etc

It would reward teams that are actually trying to remain competitive, are well managed etc while also giving those teams not at the top a better chance to improve while not rewarding tanking.

I like it.  

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I would put in a rule saying that a team cannot have the #1 pick back to back. Even at 2 or 3 you can still get one hell of player. Even go as far to go say that if its a 3rd straight year of being a bottom feeder they have to pick outside of the top 5.

I still say that the Oilers are a true exception in the fact that they have been mismanaged over the years and have picked the wrong player for what they have needed. Like they could have traded down to get a D-Man or Goalie over the years...its sad when they have almost as many 1st overall picks in the last 5 years as they do franchise Stanley Cups.

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The draft rules have already been changed enough. The reason losing is rewarded is because the NHL wants to encourage parity. It makes absolutely no sense to give team that just missed the playoffs like LA last year a good chance at a top pick. 

The fact that Edmonton has won the lottery so many times is a statistical anomaly.

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30 minutes ago, Toews said:

The draft rules have already been changed enough. The reason losing is rewarded is because the NHL wants to encourage parity. It makes absolutely no sense to give team that just missed the playoffs like LA last year a good chance at a top pick. 

Agree, the rules have been changed enough.  Let's see how the new tweak works out.

 

On a different note, all these discussions about teams at the bottom repeatedly grabbing the best picks but what about the thought that picking one of the top 5 18 year olds doesn't always translate to having a top 5 24 year old?  Not that I'd say no to a top 5 pick but maybe, just maybe, having top 5 picks isn't the only way to build an elite team?  Maybe, just maybe top 5 picks aren't what they're cracked up to be.

 

I've seen all the arguments for and against: "All the cup winners have top 5 picks in their line up" versus "top 5 picks guarantee nothing just look at Edm, Clb, Car, etc".  Clearly there is more to a winning team than netting top 5 picks.  The draft takes skill and some luck.  But if you run your organization the right way you will hopefully rely less on luck and draft the depth needed to land "top 5 talent" later through trades or free agency.  Dallas didn't use any top 5 picks to land Seguin, San Jose didn't use any top 5 picks to land Thorton, Boston didn't use any top 5 picks for Chara...who wasn't a top 5 pick in the first place but developed into a "top 5 talent".

 

It's hard to predict who most 18 year olds will become by the time the are impact players on your roster.  That's why most teams go with the best player available*** for the most part.  If you pick based on immediate need, it's too late.  Yes, the Oilers desperately need defense.  But any ones they draft this year aren't going to be significant contributors for 4 years at a minimum.  You fill holes for immediate need through trades from depth or free agency (preferably the latter, FA you tend to overpay and that's not good for the cap).

 

***I do realize that it's not always as simple as the BPA, their should be some bias toward defense and centres because they generally are harder to acquire.

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1 hour ago, Toews said:

The draft rules have already been changed enough. The reason losing is rewarded is because the NHL wants to encourage parity. It makes absolutely no sense to give team that just missed the playoffs like LA last year a good chance at a top pick. 

The fact that Edmonton has won the lottery so many times is a statistical anomaly.

Sure the draft has been changed enough "times" but it definitely has not been changed enough, IMO. When a team like the Oilers have another legit shot at the next top prospect, there is something wrong. It's not an anomaly at all, it's playing the percentages. Sure there is some luck involved but that's the system in place. In fact, the way I understand the changes is that the only actual change is including the second and third picks in the lottery. I could be wrong, but I think the percentages for the 1st pick are the same. That said, I don't see how the majority of recent 1st overall picks going to one team in a league of 30 would be seen as beneficial towards building league widw parity, you would think they would like to spread that talent around a bit and put up a few guards in the process to stop that from happening. I suppose with the likelihood of expansion, the league might see the current set up as the best way to get new teams off and running. 

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On ‎2‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 10:57 AM, J.R. said:

I actually liked an idea i heard, submitted by a listener to 1040 yesterday. The top 14 draft picks get assigned in reverse order/best odds at the lottery.

So team #17 (not team 30) gets highest odds at 1st over all and after the first three lottery picks it would continue in reverse order until they playoff teams. So say teams 17, 18 and 19 actually got the 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks (as per their better odds) the draft order would be:

17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11...etc

It would reward teams that are actually trying to remain competitive, are well managed etc while also giving those teams not at the top a better chance to improve while not rewarding tanking.

I think this could be a very interesting idea.

Can you imagine being the Oilers, Leafs or Sabres trying to willfully tank for a great pick again?  Would be hilarious to watch them try to be just competitive enough to make a good go of it....but not good enough to make the playoffs.  Would be some nailbiters for sure at the battle for mediocrity and not just piss poor efforts by AHL caliber squads that only make their fans miserable.

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11 minutes ago, Canorth said:

Sure the draft has been changed enough "times" but it definitely has not been changed enough, IMO. When a team like the Oilers have another legit shot at the next top prospect, there is something wrong. It's not an anomaly at all, it's playing the percentages. Sure there is some luck involved but that's the system in place. In fact, the way I understand the changes is that the only actual change is including the second and third picks in the lottery. I could be wrong, but I think the percentages for the 1st pick are the same. That said, I don't see how the majority of recent 1st overall picks going to one team in a league of 30 would be seen as beneficial towards building league widw parity, you would think they would like to spread that talent around a bit and put up a few guards in the process to stop that from happening. I suppose with the likelihood of expansion, the league might see the current set up as the best way to get new teams off and running. 

One of the biggest factors in them winning their first three lottery wins was that teams were only allowed to move up 4 spots if they won the lottery. That is no longer the case. Now even if one is to finish last, there is a 47% chance that you pick 4th. If you want to take a look at the current lottery model in action you should take a look at the NBA lottery. How many times have the same teams managed to win?  Take a look at the Oilers of the NBA in the 76ers and see how they have fared in the lottery. 

The current structure is fine.

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9 minutes ago, Toews said:

One of the biggest factors in them winning their first three lottery wins was that teams were only allowed to move up 4 spots if they won the lottery. That is no longer the case. Now even if one is to finish last, there is a 47% chance that you pick 4th. If you want to take a look at the current lottery model in action you should take a look at the NBA lottery. How many times have the same teams managed to win?  Take a look at the Oilers of the NBA in the 76ers and see how they have fared in the lottery. 

The current structure is fine.

You may be right. I guess its just the optics that doesnt look so great with the Oilers back on the bottom. Remove the Oilers from the equation and it does like a pretty good system. 

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