Hockey Analytics 1, Benning 0

[JamesB]

In the 2015 off-season  the Canucks Army, Thomas Drance, Pass It to Bulis, and many others who emphasize sports analytics were very critical of Benning -- not in drafting -- but in other areas. Benning was an "old school" guy who uses the "eye test" to assess players instead to getting wrapped up in a bunch of numbers.

Early in the season it looked like Benning was right and the critics were wrong. Now the opposite looks true. Over the last 10 games the Canucks have a record of 2-5-3 for a total of 7 pts. That is the worst in the NHL -- dead last over the past 10 games. And yes, the Canucks have had some injuries, but their injury situation is no worse than average so that cannot be used as an excuse.

So let's look at some things that the analytics guys were most critical of and assess the situation now.

1. Trade of Nick Bonino, Adam Clendenning, and a 2nd round pick for Brandon Sutter and a 3rd round pick.

Analytics guys love to criticize this trade. It is a textbook example of the "Moneyball" critique. For the 2 or 3 CDC participants who do not know about Moneyball, the book starts by hammering baseball GMs who acquire guys who "look like good ballplayers" -- guys who are big, strong, fast and athletic looking -- instead of acquiring players who do the things that actually matter in winning games -- like drawing walks.

Sutter for Bonino looks like a classic case. Sutter is bigger and faster, was  a former 1st round pick, and has much better hair. He looks more impressive on the ice. By the "eye test" he looks like a much better player. But their underlying analytics are very similar. Both are good defensive players who are very on the PK, can play shutdown, and provide useful secondary scoring. In fact, Bonino's career numbers are slightly better than Sutter's, and they are about the same age.  The problem is that the Canucks gave up extra value (Clendenning and a disadvantageous draft pick swap) and, here is the key, are paying much more for Sutter. Bonino's cap hit was 1.9 million (for 2 more years). Sutter's was 3.3 million for only one year and the Canucks re-signed him at 4.4. million. The Canucks could have kept Bonino AND re-signed a guy like Richardson. On an analytics basis this looks like a loss for the Canucks. Sutter is a good player, but not good enough to justify what was given up. Sutter has been injured and that is not Benning's fault. But the problem is that the Canucks also sacrificed depth in this trade and that is hurting the team now as the Canucks have too many NHL-AHL tweeners in the line-up.

2. Overpaying Sbisa and Dorsett. These guys are solid players. They are once again textbook examples of the "eye test" vs. analytics approach. Sbisa and Dorsett do not have good underlying numbers. But they provide "grit" and "toughness" and are "culture carriers". The problem is that, using analytics metrics. Benning paid significantly too much to re-sign them, using up cap space, and making it hard to pay for depth elsewhere in the line-up. Are their intangibles worth it? Things are not looking good over the past 10 days.

3. Trading Kassian for Prust. On an analytics basis this looked like a bad trade. On the numbers Kassian was a better player than Prust, and was younger with more potential. However, he was inconsistent and we now know he had substance abuse problems. It is understandable that the Canucks decided to trade him. But the Canucks also gave up a 5th round pick and are paying way too much for what Prust does. And Prust is getting older and was only signed for one year. Once again, though, Benning liked the intangibles. Prust was tough, Prust worked hard, Prust would protect the young guys, etc. In fact, Prust is a decent 4th liner for an average team but would be 13th man on most good teams. His cap hit (2.5 million) is too much for that role.

4. Signing Miller for too much and then retaining him when, apparently, he could have been traded.

Again, on the analytics numbers and taking age into account, 6 million is way too much for Miller who, at this stage in his career, is not better than an average NHL goalie, if that. (Right now he is 29th out of 45 qualified goalies in save percentage).

I will stop here. The point is that Benning has emphasized "intangibles" and the "eye test" instead of paying much attention to the salary cap and to analytics numbers. As a result the Canucks do not have  much depth and are being forced to use a lot of cheap players who are, at best, borderline NHL players, including Cracknell, Weber, Bartkowski, Biega, and Kenins. No one is criticizing those guys as individuals. They have all done well to get this far, but the Canucks just do not have enough talent to contend and obviously are depending far too much on the Sedins -- who were brought in 3 general managers ago.

Right now I would say that the analytics critics are winning the argument.

But the good news is that Benning's drafting record is good. If he can actually acquire more draft picks instead of trading them away the Canucks would have a good chance of building a contender down the road.

[Gstank29]

 because your analytics are really good at predicting injuries and slumps right

[oldnews]

Fail.

CanucksArmy are pretenders, plain and simple.

The last 10 games are actually an indictation of how much better Sutter makes this team.

But in the last 10 games....no Sutter, banged up Sbisa....and the team is struggling.  Yes, these injuries are highly relevent when the primary deals you are attempting to criticize involve both of them lol.   Their 'analytics' regarding Sbisa were some of the most laughable distortions of underlying numbers I've ever seen.

Kassian not an NHL asset at this point.

How could anyone attempt to prop up this nonsense.

Those guys have no concept of analytics btw.

Benning 1, 'CanucksArmy' O

Analytics 1, PITB O.

[Canucks Prophet]

Analytics and eye tests are both important

[Tigs]

Unicorns 1, Comcast 0

Checkmate.

[SvenBae]

Yes, everyone knows that great statistical and analytical methodology comes from drawing conclusions during the fact...

[Gstank29]

Benning 1

James B -1 

[oldnews]

3 minutes ago, Canucks Prophet said:

Analytics and eye tests are both important

Bingo.

[The Lock]

I think fans often look into every detail of the team a little too much (by often I really mean all the time). Personally, I'm not a fan of analytics when they are used as the main source of an argument and not as a backup to an existing argument. I especially don't believe in the use of analytics by the "journalists" at those websites. While an interesting read at times, they are usually severely flawed in their analysis. Often, they even admit that there are flaws in their analysis.

I'd rather wait and see how the Canucks look in a year or 2 rather than giving myself an ulcer focusing in on every little unnecessary detail that really is going to make little difference in the future.

[TheRussianRocket.]

Wrong. http://forum.canucks.com/topic/373107-trader-jim-trades-once-viewed-as-terrible-have-turned-out-great/ .

 

1) Sutter is a vital piece to our team. Without him, we have taken a big hit and stringed together a stretch of losses. You can see his importance with Horvat and McCann taking on his duties which they aren't ready for yet.

2) Overpaid yes, but again big pieces for this team. Never thought I'd say this but without Sbisa in the lineup our defense is terrible. He helps stabilize things a lot back there. And Dorsett, he's a leader and helps the young guys transition into the NHL. Linemates with Horvat last year, this year with McCann...not a coincidence.

3) Prust > a non-active player who is in rehab due to addiction.

4) Miller is light years better than Lack, just compare the stats this year lol. And overpaid, maybe slightly, but nothing to cry about. Without Miller's play, we are bottom 3 in the league standings. 

[oldnews]

I like pie.

 

[Canorth]

What have you done for me lately?

[xereau]

Analytics did not predict the utter and complete failure of nine secondary forward scorers

[milk and honey]

Sutter trade and Kassian trade is atm way to soon to tell. 

 

Sutter is much better suited for a playoff run and can actually match against the best 2c in the NHL. Adam wasn't that good and probably will be Yannick Weber level most of his career. Sure moving down in the draft wasn't the best but after the first 40ish picks my understanding was that it was a week draft. Still could happen our pick is a stud and theirs is a bust or vice versa. Most likely both will be busts. When Sutter was playing we are a much better team.  4.4m is a bit heavy, but the cap will increase. 4.4m for a guy who can be a solid 2c or an elite 3c once we become contenders again is amazing. Something we haven't been able to say in a long time. Sure caps wise it's nice to have a 1.5m cheat 3rd line center like a Richardson or Pahlsson(I think that was the guy name at least)  but you don't win cups with that. The fact of the matter the strengths of the past few cup winners was a very strong hitting, defensively strong bottom 6. Sutter will be the most expensive one most likely but still the trade is still way to soon to tell.

 

Kassian turned out to have off ice issues and he was going to be a bust here. I went back a couple days ago to the spring to see how playoffs fever hit the forum. Saw lots of threads about depth, Kassian etc... JB is fixing that just he can't just go out and sign anyone he wants. Prust is a still a solid guy to have this year we will probably gain a top90 pick for him at the deadline if he won't resign. Kassian was best to leave the nucks for our sake and for his career. Still again too soon to tell but atm looks like a fair trade and makes sense for both teams.

Dorsett is very good at doing his job. He is a bit overpaid but he might take a discount or something in the future. Sbisa isn't goat but without him and his hits the defense is really bad. He might make mistakes but his presence is deeply missed.  This is judging by the last 20-30 mins of games I have seen lately. 

 

MIller been lights out 95% of the games I saw and early on most of the wins/otl/shootout losses were because of how solid he was. He is gone in 18months or signing for a cheap deal. Although last couple weeks I haven't been able to catch many games due to work.

I wish people would use their heads. You simply don't become a Stanley cup contender in a year or 2. You don't trade everyone but the sedins and get loads of studs prospects. You don't have an one year rebuild, no such thing. Takes time for players to leave and new ones to develop and sign here.  Just give management and coaching a couple more years. This is all expected anyone not using homer grasses by the skill we have currently. 

 

 

[Shift-4]

Results are in already?
After only 28 games?
Good to know.

[The Bookie]

Still not super happy with Dorsett's contract, and I expect there's something similar coming for Prust, but meh. Makes a bit more sense to me now seeing that the idea is to buffer the 2nd/3rd lines with a responsible vet 4th and have room to incubate the young 'uns.

Rest of his moves make sense to me. I've grown tired of trying to explain it to other people.

There's a good chance this season is headed towards being a lost cause. I can live with that. Still fun to watch the newbies progress. And with the state of the Pacific, you never know. Probably if they can hang around the edge of the bubble until late January, they have a good chance to make up ground down the stretch. It's kind of a weird year for them schedule-wise, top heavy with road trips. They don't have to play in an East coast city after January.

[HC20.0]

1. Sutter's injured right now, FYI. Before he was injured, he was vastly out performing Bonino, and it's not like Clendenning's been amazing.

2. Sbisa's been one of our best defenders believe it or not, and I have no problem with Dorsett's contract.

3. If you think this was a bad trade, then give your head a shake. Kassian has a very high chance of never playing in the NHL again now. It certainley wont be with Montreal. It was basically a 5th for Prust, which was a fantastic trade.

4. Miller might not be doing well, but believe it or not, he's vastly out performing Lack. Retaining Miller was the right move.

 

Benning's done a great job with what he's had to work with. PITB and Canucks Army are full of clowns.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Blogger-based analytics failed us when we lost to the Flames in the playoffs.  They were an analytically horrible team, but simply out-worked ours and took it to us physically.  Since then it's been a justified process of ignoring blogger-based analytics, because it's not all that useful.

But i'm wondering if Bonino and his 5pts is an honest improvement over an injured Sutter at this point?  Debatable.  Certainly nobody was crying about Sutter when he was healthy.  I think more of it is that Bonino had to go because if he stayed, he'd be dead by now.  We had to play him too much here ina  tough role and he's not built for it.  Turns out that not even Sutter was.  Oh well.

As for Sbisa and Dorsett, gawd, do you need analytics to make an overpaid argument here?  Nope.  Beat that dead horse.

I've said Miller was the wrong guy to get from the get-go, due to salary and term and goaltending depth, and you didn't need to have analytics for that either.  

So really, this OP was about what?  Trumpeting CA's overly whiney analysis of the Sutter trade now that Sutter is injured?  Fail.  As if Bonino saves this team.

 

Analytics aren't useless, but the useful analysis is for the team brass, not fans.  Or at least that's the way it should be.  If there isn't an team analytics improvement over what we see as fans, then holy crap, the team will have issues forever.

[The Lock]

1 minute ago, The Bookie said:

Still not super happy with Dorsett's contract, and I expect there's something similar coming for Prust, but meh. Makes a bit more sense to me now seeing that the idea is to buffer the 2nd/3rd lines with a responsible vet 4th and have room to incubate the young 'uns.

Rest of his moves make sense to me. I've grown tired of trying to explain it to other people.

There's a good chance this season is headed towards being a lost cause. I can live with that. Still fun to watch the newbies progress. And with the state of the Pacific, you never know. Probably if they can hang around the edge of the bubble until late January, they have a good chance to make up ground down the stretch. It's kind of a weird year for them schedule-wise, top heavy with road trips. They don't have to play in an East coast city after January.

Definitely agree on the getting tired of explaining things to people, especially the ones who don't even care to listen. However, I'd hate to think how this team would be without Dorsett and Prust. Even when they're slumping, that 4th line's been still out there at the very least often doing more damage than our 2nd and 3rd lines as of late.

I actually predict we'll see the Canucks improve in the 2nd half of the season. You noted the schedule after January. Add to that Sutter hopefully back in the lineup (who's obviously quite missed which makes this whole analytics thing even more baffling as to why that's even considered a bad trade).

I've said this countless times. People just need to be patient. Baertschi's not going to be a superstar tomorrow. He might, however, be a superstar in 4 or 5 years. Add to that players like Boeser, Horvat, McCann, Baertschi, and Virtanen. That's a lot of drive up front. The defense is obviously weak at this point, but there are also half as many defenders on a hockey team. With players like Tyamkin and Pedan in the mix, we might not be referring to our defense as "weak" later on. Even Olson has been making strides this year. I'm fortunate enough to be able to watch him locally.

Who knows the future really, but I firmly believe Benning's giving our future as good of a chance as anyone. All of these analytics guys can keep their analytics. In the meantime, I'm going to watch the games.

[canucklehead44]

7 minutes ago, HC20.0 said:

1. Sutter's injured right now, FYI. Before he was injured, he was vastly out performing Bonino, and it's not like Clendenning's been amazing.

2. Sbisa's been one of our best defenders believe it or not, and I have no problem with Dorsett's contract.

3. If you think this was a bad trade, then give your head a shake. Kassian has a very high chance of never playing in the NHL again now. It certainley wont be with Montreal. It was basically a 5th for Prust, which was a fantastic trade.

4. Miller might not be doing well, but believe it or not, he's vastly out performing Lack. Retaining Miller was the right move.

 

Benning's done a great job with what he's had to work with. PITB and Canucks Army are full of clowns.

If anything, the injuries to Prust and Sutter show how much value they brought to the Canucks. With both of them in the lineup we seemed to play a much more high tempo, physical game. 

I knew about Kassian's issues before we traded him, but I still hated the trade. That said, the absolute worst case scenario happened for Montreal whereas Prust, moreso early on, has been a pleasant surprise. 

Kasian would have been a contract for us at the end of the day. At least we get a solid year out of Prust, and can likely swap him for a 3rd round pick at the deadline if we go that route (great fourth line piece for a playoff run).

I am fine with the Miller scenario. At the end of the day he was a similar echelon goalie to Luongo, less baggae, no crippling long-term contract and we also got a solid year out of Matthias plus Markstrom out of it. No way we could go in with Lack (who showed during the Tortorella year he wasn't ready) and Markstrom ( a completely unproven rookie). It made the most sense to keep Markstrom (vs losing him on waivers) and have him develop behind Miller for two years. I hate the return we got on Lack, but moving him was the right thing to do. 

I am fine with Sbisa as well. I don't think we needed to give him that contract, but he is playing up to his 3.2 million this year. He has tightened up defensively, is still young (potential to get better), and combines size with snarl and solid skating ability. We need a guy like Dorsett. He was good last year, at the end of the day paying him 1.6 vs 2.6 doesn't really make a whole lot of difference in the big picture.