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Young Guys: Age and Development


JamesB

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News flash ... young players take time to develop. It's purely guesswork at this point. They needed to be supported both internally and externally. All I know is the Canucks young players need time to grow. Will they all turn into stars? Absolutely not. Will they all suck? Absolutely not. Turning the team around will take time. Will all these young players still be here when it happens? Absolutely not. Take the Sedins and Miller off the roster and it's one of the youngest lineups in the league. When you commit to young players you commit to the process not the outcome. 

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I agree with the assessment of the prospects having bottom six and bottom pair guys and lacking guys who are a top line forwards and D.

 

My biggest concern is this draft aside from Matthews doesn't seem to have any projected offensive centers who can be #1 Cs or even legit #2 Cs.

 

The D seem risky to pick with nobody clear-cut above the rest. Like you said after the top 3 there is not a true consensus pick in the group.

 

It may be best to trade down if the Canucks can't get a minimum top 3 pick for a proven player who is between 23-26 age range that they need more of to hell fill the gaps between young and old and shorten the rebuild time.

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39 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

Yes , but u have a healthy sutter, and a guy like boeser when he's ready, it could make all the difference. Still need solid D , but we saw from the beginning how much better we were when healthy. 

 

Even last year , vrbatts playing well with 30 plus  , how did we do? One guy on can make a difference. 

Imagine what kind of contract Sutter would have gotten had we not resigned him? Canucks have set a lot of unflattering records this year to say the least, and one that is overlooked is that we paid a player the most salary that a player has ever recieved for barely cracking 40 pts after playing a grand total of zero games for us. Not only was this move idiotic without context at the time, but given the amount of young C's coming up and the fact we are nowhere near contending, it is beyond comprehension that we would pay such a price for an in his prime tweener on a long term deal. Had he played the entire season out with us, more people would have been up in arms. Next season I look forward to reading all of the posts after finally awakening to the magnitude of stupidity of this deal

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4 hours ago, JamesB said:

Tonight's game against St. Louis was another low point for team performance (although on track for successful tanking). As was said in the post-game show on TSN 1040, it looked like men against boys out there. Yes the team was tired playing for the third time in four nights but, even so, very few Canuck players looked like they were able to compete. The Canucks were outhit 35 to 14 and, in the third period when the trailing team often outshoots the leading team, the Canucks were outshot 16 -- 2.

 

The optimists are saying that this is normal and happens to young teams. As young guys mature they will develop and the team will improve. I have looked closely at age and development before and thought I would run through the current young guys and see which guys might become good NHL players based on standard development patterns. I realize that there is individual variation and some guys are late bloomers, but overall averages give the best prediction.

 

The key data is that forwards typically improve a lot each year between their draft year (when most are 17) for the next 4 years or so: ages 18-21. After that you still normally get improvement, but at a slower rate, up to about age 24. The peak range for forwards is between the ages of about 24 and 31. As a rule of thumb, for Ds you can add a couple of years to the early development stage, so they peak later.

 

The basic point for forwards is that you can't normally expect a lot of improvement after age 23 or 24. It happens, but that is not the way the smart money bets. So, based on that, here are the ages.

 

Forwards:

 

Virtanen - age 19. Currently a legitimate 4th liner on an average NHL team. He still has a lot of development room left so he could still become a top 6 forward.

McCann - age 19. I don't see him as a legitimate NHL player right now. But he also still has a lot of development room left and could still become a top 6 foward.

Horvat -- age 20. Currently a legitimate 3rd line defensive center.He was asked to do too much this year, but has enough development room left to become a good 2C.

Gaunce -- just turned 22. In 12 NHL games this year he has 1 pt and is -8, and that is with protected minutes. He is not a legitimate NHL player yet and with his trajectory in junior and the AHL, he is borderline to ever be an NHL regular. He could become a decent bottom 6 forward or 13th man, but it is probably even money that he never becomes an NHL regular.

Granlund -- turns 23 in April. He is pretty close to the age where what you see is what you get (normally). He is a marginal NHL player right now and maybe he improves a bit, but it is likely that he is never more than a marginal bottom 6 player or 13th man.

Etem -- age 23. A couple of teams have already given up on him and, as his current age, what we are looking at now is pretty close to what we can expect long run. And, in my view, that is not good enough to play on a good NHL team.

Baertschi -- age 23. In the second half of this year he has played like a marginal 2nd line winger. Should make the small additional step to being a legitimate 2nd line winger next year. That is consistent with his Junior and AHL trajectory as well, so picking him up was a good move.

Vey -- age 24. Currently good enough to maybe be 13th man on an average NHL team and it is hard to see him doing much more than that.

Grenier -- age 24. Not a legitimate NHL player yet and, at his age and current performance level, probably never will be.

 

Defence:

 

Tryamkin is 21, Pedan is 22, and Hutton is 22. These guys should all continue to improve quite a lot over the next couple of years. Hutton had a good year but has kind of hit a wall, which is not surprising given everything he has been asked to do. And we don't have a big sample on Tryamkin. But Tryamkin and Pedan look like they can probably be decent 3rd pairing NHL Ds next year, and Hutton looks like he will be a decent top 4 D very soon, although putting him in that role this year was too early.

 

That is the emerging "young core" on the team, along with Marky in goal. And of course Demko and Boeser are very good prospects playing in the NCAA. Based on normal development patterns I don't see any likely future legitimate first line forwards or top pairing Ds currently at the pro level in the Canuck pipeline. It could happen, it is just not what current information suggests. Boeser is doing great of course, but it is a big step from the NCAA to the NHL so it is too early to say much. But personally I think he is likeliest guy in the current prospect pool to be a first liner in the NHL.

 

We don't have really high end prospects like some of the other currently bad teams. Edmonton and Buffalo have future franchise players like McDavid and Eichel respectively, but even Calgary has Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett as young forwards and Dougie Hamilton on D. Vancouver has no young player on a comparable trajectory (at the pro level) to any of those 4 players on an age-adjusted basis.

 

And you just don't get Cup contenders without franchise type players. To have a chance for a Cup in the medium term future we need to daft a very good player this year and we need one or two guys in the prospect pool to become big positive outliers relative to normal development patterns. Picking up decent but expensive UFAs (like Miller and Vrbata) has, in my view, just slowed down the turnaround. Expensive UFAs are just a bandaid -- you can buy a slightly better team, but you can't rebuild a solid core with UFAs. I hope Benning does not get carried in the UFA market this summer. 

 

Your assessments of the younger players is dead on: Etem is unlikely, Vey even worse, and your sense of Virtanen and McCan is fresh but unlikely to change opinions.  Your genius is on the issue of UFAs: too many ppl think you can get better by adding some outsider with a desire for job security.  I think you underestimate Hutton, but on the other hand I wonder what you think we should be drafting toward?

 

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Anton Rödin has good numbers in Sweden, 2015-16 Brynäs IF  SHL GP33 G16 A21 P37 PIM18 +/-7

He is 25 years old, maybe he will take the job on third or second line as replacement for Vrbata.

 

And Sbisa, 26, will stay, if you like it or not, and play on the third pairing for a long time.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Chip Kelly said:

I agree with the assessment of the prospects having bottom six and bottom pair guys and lacking guys who are a top line forwards and D.

 

My biggest concern is this draft aside from Matthews doesn't seem to have any projected offensive centers who can be #1 Cs or even legit #2 Cs.

 

The D seem risky to pick with nobody clear-cut above the rest. Like you said after the top 3 there is not a true consensus pick in the group.

 

It may be best to trade down if the Canucks can't get a minimum top 3 pick for a proven player who is between 23-26 age range that they need more of to hell fill the gaps between young and old and shorten the rebuild time.

What's the rush?

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Part of the OP's problem, although I agree with much of what he says, is that it is very hard to gauge young talent when they are playing in a failing team.

 

Bo did well last season because he played with good vets.

 

This year, injury has denied rookies the chance to play in a stable team which won more than they lost. Let us not forget Bo playing with Hansen/Dorsett/Kenins played in a team that totalled 101 points playing in the West. That is success in anyones language.

 

However Vbrata and Burrows have dipped markedly this season (but why deny them the same excuse of an injury gutted team that the rookies are offered?) and we have lost or given up Bieksa, Matthias and Richardson, while "exchanging" Bonino for Sutter (who hardly played)

 

Say what you like about the "quality" of these players but there is no denying that Willie got the best out of them as a team. This year without these pros and with the awful list of injuries, Willie has been reduced to despair - should anyone be surprised?

 

Imo I don't see a future here for Granlund, Etem or Vey, mainly because they have no finish.

Jake and Jared need more time in Utica and Gaunce and Grenier need more games and to be playing with more experienced players.

Tryamkin and Hutton look sound but Pedan for me has a problem which either stems from between the ears or he is badly affected by nerves, as he does not look to me like the player our Utica brothers describe regarding overall play.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, alfstonker said:

Part of the OP's problem, although I agree with much of what he says, is that it is very hard to gauge young talent when they are playing in a failing team.

 

Bo did well last season because he played with good vets.

 

This year, injury has denied rookies the chance to play in a stable team which won more than they lost. Let us not forget Bo playing with Hansen/Dorsett/Kenins played in a team that totalled 101 points playing in the West. That is success in anyones language.

 

However Vbrata and Burrows have dipped markedly this season (but why deny them the same excuse of an injury gutted team that the rookies are offered?) and we have lost or given up Bieksa, Matthias and Richardson, while "exchanging" Bonino for Sutter (who hardly played)

 

Say what you like about the "quality" of these players but there is no denying that Willie got the best out of them as a team. This year without these pros and with the awful list of injuries, Willie has been reduced to despair - should anyone be surprised?

 

Imo I don't see a future here for Granlund, Etem or Vey, mainly because they have no finish.

Jake and Jared need more time in Utica and Gaunce and Grenier need more games and to be playing with more experienced players.

Tryamkin and Hutton look sound but Pedan for me has a problem which either stems from between the ears or he is badly affected by nerves, as he does not look to me like the player our Utica brothers describe regarding overall play.

 

 

I think pedan has looked fine so far. He missed last game, was good in his earlier games and last night while Hutton and tryamkin were both -3, pedan was even.

 

pedan hasn't looked as impressive as tryamkin, but if anything, Hutton, to me has struggled this month.

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People would like to rush a rebuild. I wish that management would come out and clearly say that building for the future is their priority. Move what ever assets we can and fill the holes next year with some low end UFA's on short term deals. Don't spend to the cap for a few years so ownership can bear the financial hardship. There is no quick fix for this and even dropping to 30th only guaranties a 4th overall pick. We have a low chance of getting Matthews.

This club has been stripped to the core because of poor drafting and the moving of assets to try and win it all. We have had a very competitive team here over the last 10 years or more. The position this club is in right now should not be a surprise to anyone that has been paying attention. To rush a rebuild now would screw us for the long,long term.

 

My gut tells me that they are going to spend on a couple of UFA's. We will get a good year out of them and then they will regress and we will be stuck with some albatross of a contract for 4 more years. Then this will hinder us from resigning our youth in the future. All the while we will still suck and miss the playoffs. They should play out Higgins and Burrows deals. Play Gaunce, Grenier and Pedan. Resign Hammer to a short term deal but without a NTC.  Start McCann and Vrtanen in Utica next year. Then be ready to move anything and everthing at TDL next year. Maybe Demko and Boeser will sign and be in Utica with McCann and Vrtanen. Boeser has not written the idea off. 

Who ever we get in this years draft who is not named Matthews, goes back to junior. 

   

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1 hour ago, appleboy said:

People would like to rush a rebuild. I wish that management would come out and clearly say that building for the future is their priority. Move what ever assets we can and fill the holes next year with some low end UFA's on short term deals. Don't spend to the cap for a few years so ownership can bear the financial hardship. There is no quick fix for this and even dropping to 30th only guaranties a 4th overall pick. We have a low chance of getting Matthews.

This club has been stripped to the core because of poor drafting and the moving of assets to try and win it all. We have had a very competitive team here over the last 10 years or more. The position this club is in right now should not be a surprise to anyone that has been paying attention. To rush a rebuild now would screw us for the long,long term.

 

My gut tells me that they are going to spend on a couple of UFA's. We will get a good year out of them and then they will regress and we will be stuck with some albatross of a contract for 4 more years. Then this will hinder us from resigning our youth in the future. All the while we will still suck and miss the playoffs. They should play out Higgins and Burrows deals. Play Gaunce, Grenier and Pedan. Resign Hammer to a short term deal but without a NTC.  Start McCann and Vrtanen in Utica next year. Then be ready to move anything and everthing at TDL next year. Maybe Demko and Boeser will sign and be in Utica with McCann and Vrtanen. Boeser has not written the idea off. 

Who ever we get in this years draft who is not named Matthews, goes back to junior. 

   

The thing you forget is this is a business.  Real money is made in the playoffs. If the Canucks snuck into the playoffs next year via luck and a couple FA signings, it would be a win for aqua. 

 

I know the nest thing for us is a couple down seasons but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the best thing for the owners.

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You've put out a very well thought out and detailed post, thank you for that.  With that, I don't know that you can compartmentalize and figure out on paper.  These are individuals and sure, you can assume people will develop at this pace or peak out at that age but that isn't a definitive or certainty.  Can you project based on previous stats and numbers?  To some degree, but it isn't going to apply in every case.

 

And I think people figure it out on paper but don't realize if it was that easy 29 other teams would also do so.  It's a magical mix of success and, while I do agree that top draft picks really help the cause, it's the supporting cast that plays a huge role in that.  Some teams get it right and all the pieces fall into place.  They have depth that covers injury and they have chemistry and coaching that work with the players in place. 

 

I do think it's FAR too early to determine what our young guys are capable of or where they "stand".  It isn't something that offers the luxury of plugging in and out of with ease....you have to have patience and allow for them to blossom.  With one another in an environment that draws their best out of them.  We have some vets in place who can (and are) helping with that...give it time.

 

The Sedins calling them out is part of that....it's important they know from the get go what a grind this is.  That it isn't enough to be "good", you have to work hard every single shift because the guy beside you relies on it.  No floating or coasting, even when fatigue sets in.  Getting players who can push past that, and will.  So the stage is being set and, perhaps, that's part of the necessary learning curve that they're working on behind the scenes.  Work ethic and attitude.

 

Extremely gifted/skilled players who can automatically translate over into franchise saving players aren't as common as one may think.  We number them in a row, but it's a bit of a hit and miss at times.   Sure, this draft offers some huge potential but that's all it is.  Until you plunk these guys into a line up with others you just don't know how it will play out.  They are prospects for a reason.  If injury factors in, that can all go out the window.  I keep going back to putting all the eggs in one basket.  I prefer that the focus isn't put on "a" player, but all players.

 

I am of the thinking we just HAVE to get in on this and we will.  But I don't like that people think it's a magical cure that instantly makes a team a winner.  I want a team that's constantly figuring it out, not waiting for a one player solution to do so.

 

And the age thing...experience also is a valuable asset.  While our vets are nearing the end of the deal, younger players can develop as they age and mature and I'm not thinking there's a limit of twenty whatever as a threshold.  That's a fairly limiting view and you could miss out on some late blooming that way.   As the norm, sure...but this is about putting a lot of pieces together and allowing for them to gel with the right supporting cast helping them with that.

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1 hour ago, riffraff said:

I think pedan has looked fine so far. He missed last game, was good in his earlier games and last night while Hutton and tryamkin were both -3, pedan was even.

 

pedan hasn't looked as impressive as tryamkin, but if anything, Hutton, to me has struggled this month.

Absolutely agree about Pedan. With Hutton though, I think he's just tired. I don't think he's ever played so much in a season.

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29 minutes ago, Gooseberries said:

The thing you forget is this is a business.  Real money is made in the playoffs. If the Canucks snuck into the playoffs next year via luck and a couple FA signings, it would be a win for aqua. 

 

I know the nest thing for us is a couple down seasons but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the best thing for the owners.

It has been said that one round of playoffs does nothing for them. ( the money goes to equalization payments)  They need to make the second round for the owners to make any cash. They would be best to reduce salary.

Yes it is a business but they need to retool or be in a lot of trouble for the long hall. As you can see,fans in Vancouver lose interest real fast.

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10 hours ago, desiboynux4lifee******* said:

I said it before, if Benning continues to shy away from drafting  skilled players(Nylander, pujavari, who I know if we get 3rd pick he will pick a defence), then we will be a team in the future that struggles to score. You need guys with skill, elite skill the Sedins are a example. You can't have all your players being a bunch of 2 way guys, you need that odd game breaker type of player. 

 

Benning will pick a defenceman with the third pick? And you KNOW this do you?

 

Sigh.

 

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i've always believed that a successful line was made up of a goalscorer, playmaker and a mucker...canucks are trying to learn the game and who they are...i know that some people don't like it but it will take time...

i don't have the ability to pidgeon hole the young players...i'll leave that to those with more hockey knowledge than i...

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45 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

You've put out a very well thought out and detailed post, thank you for that.  With that, I don't know that you can compartmentalize and figure out on paper.  These are individuals and sure, you can assume people will develop at this pace or peak out at that age but that isn't a definitive or certainty.  Can you project based on previous stats and numbers?  To some degree, but it isn't going to apply in every case.

 

And I think people figure it out on paper but don't realize if it was that easy 29 other teams would also do so.  It's a magical mix of success and, while I do agree that top draft picks really help the cause, it's the supporting cast that plays a huge role in that.  Some teams get it right and all the pieces fall into place.  They have depth that covers injury and they have chemistry and coaching that work with the players in place. 

 

I do think it's FAR too early to determine what our young guys are capable of or where they "stand".  It isn't something that offers the luxury of plugging in and out of with ease....you have to have patience and allow for them to blossom.  With one another in an environment that draws their best out of them.  We have some vets in place who can (and are) helping with that...give it time.

 

The Sedins calling them out is part of that....it's important they know from the get go what a grind this is.  That it isn't enough to be "good", you have to work hard every single shift because the guy beside you relies on it.  No floating or coasting, even when fatigue sets in.  Getting players who can push past that, and will.  So the stage is being set and, perhaps, that's part of the necessary learning curve that they're working on behind the scenes.  Work ethic and attitude.

 

Extremely gifted/skilled players who can automatically translate over into franchise saving players aren't as common as one may think.  We number them in a row, but it's a bit of a hit and miss at times.   Sure, this draft offers some huge potential but that's all it is.  Until you plunk these guys into a line up with others you just don't know how it will play out.  They are prospects for a reason.  If injury factors in, that can all go out the window.  I keep going back to putting all the eggs in one basket.  I prefer that the focus isn't put on "a" player, but all players.

 

I am of the thinking we just HAVE to get in on this and we will.  But I don't like that people think it's a magical cure that instantly makes a team a winner.  I want a team that's constantly figuring it out, not waiting for a one player solution to do so.

 

And the age thing...experience also is a valuable asset.  While our vets are nearing the end of the deal, younger players can develop as they age and mature and I'm not thinking there's a limit of twenty whatever as a threshold.  That's a fairly limiting view and you could miss out on some late blooming that way.   As the norm, sure...but this is about putting a lot of pieces together and allowing for them to gel with the right supporting cast helping them with that.

Deb , you understand that our teams injuries have been to top 2 lines players, and that we are adding 3rd and 4th line players via the trades Benning has made. My bet will be that none including Baer will amount to more than that. Yes you need depth, but how is that working out right now?

Depth are usually journeymen players with experience.....those picks we have traded away for the likes of Vey, Pedan etc, have a better chance to amounting to NHL 2 line players than they do..........it depends on who and what team you are comparing them to....if you are comparing to Calgary, and Toronto....well yes good pick ups, if you are comparing to the top end of the league, then no, they wouldn't make the teams.

We shall see, but chances are we will just move them along in a year or 2.....Vey for example isn't too far off that....unless you consider him a 1st line or 2nd line player......I just don't!

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11 hours ago, JamesB said:

Tonight's game against St. Louis was another low point for team performance (although on track for successful tanking). As was said in the post-game show on TSN 1040, it looked like men against boys out there. Yes the team was tired playing for the third time in four nights but, even so, very few Canuck players looked like they were able to compete. The Canucks were outhit 35 to 14 and, in the third period when the trailing team often outshoots the leading team, the Canucks were outshot 16 -- 2.

 

The optimists are saying that this is normal and happens to young teams. As young guys mature they will develop and the team will improve. I have looked closely at age and development before and thought I would run through the current young guys and see which guys might become good NHL players based on standard development patterns. I realize that there is individual variation and some guys are late bloomers, but overall averages give the best prediction.

 

The key data is that forwards typically improve a lot each year between their draft year (when most are 17) for the next 4 years or so: ages 18-21. After that you still normally get improvement, but at a slower rate, up to about age 24. The peak range for forwards is between the ages of about 24 and 31. As a rule of thumb, for Ds you can add a couple of years to the early development stage, so they peak later.

 

The basic point for forwards is that you can't normally expect a lot of improvement after age 23 or 24. It happens, but that is not the way the smart money bets. So, based on that, here are the ages.

 

Forwards:

 

Virtanen - age 19. Currently a legitimate 4th liner on an average NHL team. He still has a lot of development room left so he could still become a top 6 forward.

McCann - age 19. I don't see him as a legitimate NHL player right now. But he also still has a lot of development room left and could still become a top 6 foward.

Horvat -- age 20. Currently a legitimate 3rd line defensive center.He was asked to do too much this year, but has enough development room left to become a good 2C.

Gaunce -- just turned 22. In 12 NHL games this year he has 1 pt and is -8, and that is with protected minutes. He is not a legitimate NHL player yet and with his trajectory in junior and the AHL, he is borderline to ever be an NHL regular. He could become a decent bottom 6 forward or 13th man, but it is probably even money that he never becomes an NHL regular.

Granlund -- turns 23 in April. He is pretty close to the age where what you see is what you get (normally). He is a marginal NHL player right now and maybe he improves a bit, but it is likely that he is never more than a marginal bottom 6 player or 13th man.

Etem -- age 23. A couple of teams have already given up on him and, as his current age, what we are looking at now is pretty close to what we can expect long run. And, in my view, that is not good enough to play on a good NHL team.

Baertschi -- age 23. In the second half of this year he has played like a marginal 2nd line winger. Should make the small additional step to being a legitimate 2nd line winger next year. That is consistent with his Junior and AHL trajectory as well, so picking him up was a good move.

Vey -- age 24. Currently good enough to maybe be 13th man on an average NHL team and it is hard to see him doing much more than that.

Grenier -- age 24. Not a legitimate NHL player yet and, at his age and current performance level, probably never will be.

 

Defence:

 

Tryamkin is 21, Pedan is 22, and Hutton is 22. These guys should all continue to improve quite a lot over the next couple of years. Hutton had a good year but has kind of hit a wall, which is not surprising given everything he has been asked to do. And we don't have a big sample on Tryamkin. But Tryamkin and Pedan look like they can probably be decent 3rd pairing NHL Ds next year, and Hutton looks like he will be a decent top 4 D very soon, although putting him in that role this year was too early.

 

That is the emerging "young core" on the team, along with Marky in goal. And of course Demko and Boeser are very good prospects playing in the NCAA. Based on normal development patterns I don't see any likely future legitimate first line forwards or top pairing Ds currently at the pro level in the Canuck pipeline. It could happen, it is just not what current information suggests. Boeser is doing great of course, but it is a big step from the NCAA to the NHL so it is too early to say much. But personally I think he is likeliest guy in the current prospect pool to be a first liner in the NHL.

 

We don't have really high end prospects like some of the other currently bad teams. Edmonton and Buffalo have future franchise players like McDavid and Eichel respectively, but even Calgary has Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett as young forwards and Dougie Hamilton on D. Vancouver has no young player on a comparable trajectory (at the pro level) to any of those 4 players on an age-adjusted basis.

 

And you just don't get Cup contenders without franchise type players. To have a chance for a Cup in the medium term future we need to daft a very good player this year and we need one or two guys in the prospect pool to become big positive outliers relative to normal development patterns. Picking up decent but expensive UFAs (like Miller and Vrbata) has, in my view, just slowed down the turnaround. Expensive UFAs are just a bandaid -- you can buy a slightly better team, but you can't rebuild a solid core with UFAs. I hope Benning does not get carried in the UFA market this summer. 

 

James, spot on with your comments.......

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3 hours ago, riffraff said:

I think pedan has looked fine so far. He missed last game, was good in his earlier games and last night while Hutton and tryamkin were both -3, pedan was even.

 

pedan hasn't looked as impressive as tryamkin, but if anything, Hutton, to me has struggled this month.

I actually agree with you on Hutton but he has to get a pass as he has grafted his butt off for this team. 

I'm not saying Pedan won't make it but he seems conflicted too often when making decisions. As I say that may be down to nerves but he needs to eradicate nerves from his game. I don't put too much stock now in +/- by the way.

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