No offense to our offence

[Phat Fingers]

 

We are almost at the halfway point this season and can start to look at a decent sample size to see if we have enough gas in the tank to get to the post season. 

 

Consensus is that we need to score at around 220gf this year to have a shot at the post season.  Game 39 is in the books and there is some positve things to report, and some not so positve things too.  

 

Currently 5 Canucks are on pace to score 20g this season. 3 more are very close and Hansen is the wild card.  

 

Horvat is on pace for a 23g season.

Baer is on pace for a 22g season.

Daniel is on pace for a 21g season

Henrik and Sutter are on pace for 19g seasons.

Eriksson is on pace for 17g

Burrows is on pace for 16g

Granlund is on pace for 15g

 

Hansen is the wildcard. Last year he hit 22g in 67 gp.  His GPG average was 0.33.  This year, he has 5g in 18 gp, for a gpg avg of 0.27.  The team as whole has an outlier of the 9 game span. But even if he can make it back tomorrow, he would be on pace for 15g at his current GPG. If he sees a return to last season's GPG, he would be very close to hitting the 20g mark again this year. Either way, when Hansen does get back, the Sedins will score more. 

 

 

Henrik and Sutter are both in my unofficial margin of error to reach 20g this year.  I am optimistic that our current trend is more positve than negative as our team has improving gf since that 9 game losing streak.  If anything that streak has pulled down these numbers. 

 

Added to that, the Canucks have a history of being a late season team. Horvat and Baer are players that tend to produce better in the second half. Eriksson has had time to adjust and Hansen is hopefully  healthy and can get 60 ish games. All points that should increase our offence over the next 45 games. 

 

 

Our top 9 is on pace for 167 goals this season. I would expect that to improve a bit with the above stated reasons, so having 180 goals from our top 9 is reasonable as a projection. I do not believe that we will score less than 167.  We were well below our average in the first 20 games or so. 

 

Last season our top 9 producing forwards (Sutter is not included because he only played 20 games) scored a combined 118 goals. Wow, read that again, 118 goals all season. 120 if you replace Dorrset with Virtannen.  IMO Dorsett was a top 9 player last year for us.  Burrows and McCann round out the top 9.

 

Even with our 9 game drought, the top 9 have produced 76 goals this season.  Which is a 159 goal pace. I am basing my projections on the individual players.  Either way, we at minimum are looking at a 40 goal bump in production from last season to this season. 

 

That at is a huge increase, and with Eriksson having some very big struggles early in the season. 

 

Now for for not so good news....

Last year our defence scored 23 goals all season. This year our defence is on pace for 18 goals. 

 

Edler and Sbisa Gudbranson and Tanev are way, way below their averages, Trymakin and Stecher are compete unknowns and Hutton already has a 400% increase over last years goal totals. The second half will hopefully see this defence produce more, but at this point it would be optimistic to see an increase in offence from our defence.

 

For this team to have a legit shot at the playoffs we would need a projected 30 goal production defence. If Edler, Sbisa Gudbranson and Tanev can revert to their avg GPG for the remainder of the season, there is an outside chance, provided that Hutton can maintain his current pace. Huttons production is essentially replacing Bartowksi's and Hanhuis's from last season and more. He has been the lone bright spot, goal scoring wise from our defence. 

 

No other defender has scored more than one goal. 

Last but not least, our 4th line.  Gaunce, Chaput and Rodin have no goals.  Skille has 4 and Megna has 3 but some of those came from the Sedins.  Dorsett has 1 goal for the year. 

 

Mash it all together the fourth line has 8 goals total, on pace for 17-18 goals.  I think that is a bit high and we could see 15 goals from the 4th line, maybe. 

 

The current rate, we should just be around 200 gf this year, but if our recent upward trend is an indication we could hit the 220 gf mark.  

 

Thats striking distance to the playoffs and striking distance to a top ten pick, depending on your POV.

 

EW

[Kevin Biestra]

Kind of crazy that we have a real shot at eight 20-goal scorers (Don Cherry lifts an eyebrow and gets a little nervous) yet anyone scoring 30 seems like a pipedream.

[Moonshinefe]

I don't feel like given the halfway point, calculating our players' season long averages are going to help especially in players like Hansen's case. It more depends when he comes back and how many goals per game he scores at. Same with some of our other players who tend to heat up second half.

 

It's a frustrating position to be in. Our D is low scoring and our PP sucks (26th--pretty sure the league has scouted us / nullified our crappy PP since 2011 at this point). On the one hand, maybe if the Canucks are hot the second half of the season, they're still within striking range of the surprisingly low point totals of the Western conf this year's 8th slot. Is it better to watch a borderline team limp into the playoffs and likely get destroyed in the first round by a Chicago or San Jose? I mean, at least they'd win more. But then we're with the Sedins at 37 and a fairly limited prospect pool. Horvat is amazing and we have some other decent prospects, but we don't have a McDavid, Matthew or Laine by any stretch.

 

The Canucks have been around since 1970, and I'd hate to say it, but playing our way into 8th or 9th every season on some vague hope of an historical cinderella run just isn't interesting anymore. We've been there so many bloody times.. we require very high end prospects and to go into full rebuild. Sure, knowing our luck we'd lose the lottery and drop a few slots anyway, and the team will never willingly tank, but I just don't see a path to a cup at this point the way it's going.

 

I guess the other point is we handed no movement clauses out like candy, so we're pretty much handcuffed in many regards.

 

[Nuxfanabroad]

With first half almost done, we don't have too many long, tough trips on the back-nine of the sched. Think there's fewer b2b's as well.

 

There was little familiarity between our lines; & the D weren't established at all, to start the yr(Stecher in A, Tryamkin not playing, etc...). Then some key guys got hurt.

 

So now our fwds are mostly all familiar with each other, & the D-pairings seem to be shaping up nicely. Predicting our offence will be okay. They're counter-punching more, assisted by the increased confidence on the blueline.

[alfstonker]

Looking on the bright side (as I usually do ) I actually think our D is just getting their eye in. By that I mean players like Stecher, Hutton and Try are now in a place, a comfort zone is overstating it, where they know they are now expected to contribute goals. 

Stecher seems to have made it his mission and I think given his strength of will, he will probably score 10 goals or more this season.

Hutton has got over his slump and now seems to take that extra split second to set himself and it has made all the difference. He is more of a marauder than Stech but I still see  him notching up a few goals before the season ends

Try is the conundrum. I think if he is encouraged he likely has the most accurate shot of the three. Perhaps he can be coaxed into using it more.

 

Then there is Edler. Plagued by injury I feel he is only now settling down to his game and I can't see the season ending without Edler bagging half a dozen goals if he stays fit.

 

I see that coming in at about 25-30 goals by the season's end. 

[Phat Fingers]

2 hours ago, Moonshinefe said:

I don't feel like given the halfway point, calculating our players' season long averages are going to help especially in players like Hansen's case. It more depends when he comes back and how many goals per game he scores at. Same with some of our other players who tend to heat up second half.

 

Is it better to watch a borderline team limp into the playoffs and likely get destroyed in the first round. 

 

 Horvat is amazing and we have some other decent prospects, but we don't have a McDavid, Matthew or Laine by any stretch.

 

The Canucks have been around since 1970, and I'd hate to say it, but playing our way into 8th or 9th every season on some vague hope of an historical cinderella.

 

 

Moon,

 

Thanks for the reaponse 

 

just quoted the stuff I wanted to respond too. 

 

I did not infer that Hansen was projected to score 20g this season. If he wasn't injured, he would a 20g this year.  If he came back tomorrow, he'd get 15g this season. His avg, adjusted to playing 1st line deployment 5v5. 

 

If he came back now and scored at the pace he did last year, he would get 20g. Last year he scored 22g in 67gp. Not bad. 

 

He he is a wild card because he's actually only played 8 or so games on the twins line, Eriksson has that spot until game 10 or so. 

 

So half of Hansen's minutes are sans twins. I don't know what bump he got in production when playing with the twins. 

 

Added to that, I don't know what bump the twins got from having Hansen either. Gotta think they would do better with Hansen than Megna or ice cold Eriksson at the start of the year. 

 

Our d production sucks this year. But we have 4 guys playing well below their average and if they revert back to that, it will be a large boost to our second half scoring 

 

I don't think the best course for this year is getting bounced in the first round, and not every Nucks run was a Cinderella run. They were favoured in 2011, don cherry called a Canucks Rangers final before the season in 1994. Their only run that was Cinderella like was 1982. 

 

We are not a future wildcard team as being currently built, but a team others would rather avoid come playoff time.

 

a Big, strong, physical, team with great goaltending and a defense that may not score a lot but does look to be able to keep the puck out and hurt opposing forwards. 

 

Our forwards are all good two way players that can counter well because they can skate.   We have Boeser and Baer as future goal scorers. Horvat looks very capable of being a 30g/40 point center, or 25/45. Sutter is able to be a 20/20 guy, 

 

this is a team can counter acttack off a turnover, because these are the players that create turnovers. If any of the possession talents of the twins can be imparted onto the next core, I would not want to face them for 7 games. 

 

Our future is bright in terms of prospects. Juolevi is desperately needed by this team. He will defienately help boost our offence numbers.   Jake has great numbers defensively and was on pace to score 10g last season getting 4th line minutes. Not bad for a 19 y/o. He can score more than that if he can handle more minutes and better linemates and being used on the LW. 

 

Only a handful of teams have a Mathews, Laine or Mc Jesus. 

 

Of the last teams to win the cup, LA and Boston didn't either, nor did the Red Wings during their dynasties. CBJ's doesn't have that and they are leading the league. 

 

Only luck gets you one of those prospects. Edmonton took 4 tries. But those players do not equal stanely cup rings. 

 

EW

[Phat Fingers]

1 hour ago, alfstonker said:

Looking on the bright side (as I usually do ) I actually think our D is just getting their eye in. By that I mean players like Stecher, Hutton and Try are now in a place, a comfort zone is overstating it, where they know they are now expected to contribute goals. 

Stecher seems to have made it his mission and I think given his strength of will, he will probably score 10 goals or more this season.

Hutton has got over his slump and now seems to take that extra split second to set himself and it has made all the difference. He is more of a marauder than Stech but I still see  him notching up a few goals before the season ends

Try is the conundrum. I think if he is encouraged he likely has the most accurate shot of the three. Perhaps he can be coaxed into using it more.

 

Then there is Edler. Plagued by injury I feel he is only now settling down to his game and I can't see the season ending without Edler bagging half a dozen goals if he stays fit.

 

I see that coming in at about 25-30 goals by the season's end. 

 

 

Alfstonker,

 

Love the optimism, but think 10g from Stecher is a reach. I would be happy if Hutton gets to that total this year. Next year, absolutely.  If the top four senior players can just revert to they average in scoring, we should hit 25. That's how bad our d was last year and big of a boost it is to have Hutton look to get 10g this year. 

 

EW. 

[Toews]

3 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Kind of crazy that we have a real shot at eight 20-goal scorers (Don Cherry lifts an eyebrow and gets a little nervous) yet anyone scoring 30 seems like a pipedream.

How about the fact that if our leading goal scorer ends up with 23 goals at the end of the season, Crosby would have equaled that total in his first 28 games. Can't wait for Boeser to get here.

[riffraff]

1 hour ago, alfstonker said:

Looking on the bright side (as I usually do ) I actually think our D is just getting their eye in. By that I mean players like Stecher, Hutton and Try are now in a place, a comfort zone is overstating it, where they know they are now expected to contribute goals. 

Stecher seems to have made it his mission and I think given his strength of will, he will probably score 10 goals or more this season.

Hutton has got over his slump and now seems to take that extra split second to set himself and it has made all the difference. He is more of a marauder than Stech but I still see  him notching up a few goals before the season ends

Try is the conundrum. I think if he is encouraged he likely has the most accurate shot of the three. Perhaps he can be coaxed into using it more.

 

Then there is Edler. Plagued by injury I feel he is only now settling down to his game and I can't see the season ending without Edler bagging half a dozen goals if he stays fit.

 

I see that coming in at about 25-30 goals by the season's end. 

 

Wow.

 

i will be impressed with 10 from our d combined.

[DownUndaCanuck]

This Canucks team is only having success right now because of their depth up front and quality on the blueline. We obviously don't have any stars anywhere. It's a team effort night in night out and if one or two guys aren't going, we lose.

 

Offensively, we've got 3 very similar lines in terms of offensive production. Henrik's line is mainly used offensively and on the PP, Sutter's line is primarily used for a shutdown role and Horvat's "3rd line" is a bit in between but mainly lining up against opposing teams 2nd and 3rd defensive pairings which is a massive mismatch.

 

These mismatches are where the Canucks are thriving right now and is something to keep in mind...

 

During the playoffs, matchups are key. Star players are usually checked tightly and closely matched up against by top defensive pairings. That takes teams to their 2nd lines VS 2nd pairings and often that is a write-off too. In close playoff series, the 3rd lines VS 3rd defensive pairings is what breaks games open. That's where the Canucks have a massive advantage.

 

If we can somehow squeak into the playoffs, I'm confident that the Canucks depth up front is certainly up there compared to the rest of the West. Sure the star power isn't there, and defensively it has to be to shutdown the big offensive juggernauts of the Pacific division, but if Edler and Tanev can somehow do that and our goalies can hang in there, our tertiary scorers (in particular Burrows, Horvat, Baertschi, maybe even Granlund and Rodin) will lift us in those tight playoff matchups.

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Kind of crazy that we have a real shot at eight 20-goal scorers (Don Cherry lifts an eyebrow and gets a little nervous) yet anyone scoring 30 seems like a pipedream.

Especially since that is a rarity.  Only a handful of teams have managed this all-time...Would put us in the same company as the 1983-1984 Oilers and the best team ever in the 1976-1977 Canadians and one of Cherry's favorite s Orr's 1971-72 Bruins.  Each of these teams had eight twenty goal scorers. (Oilers had four 40 goal scorers 3 50 goal scorers and one 87 goal scorer lol for a whopping 446 goals overall...In an 80 game schedule.. pretty different era no doubt).  Cherry won't be the only talking head changing his tune if we can manage that.

[Boudrias]

26 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

This Canucks team is only having success right now because of their depth up front and quality on the blueline. We obviously don't have any stars anywhere. It's a team effort night in night out and if one or two guys aren't going, we lose.

 

Offensively, we've got 3 very similar lines in terms of offensive production. Henrik's line is mainly used offensively and on the PP, Sutter's line is primarily used for a shutdown role and Horvat's "3rd line" is a bit in between but mainly lining up against opposing teams 2nd and 3rd defensive pairings which is a massive mismatch.

 

These mismatches are where the Canucks are thriving right now and is something to keep in mind...

 

During the playoffs, matchups are key. Star players are usually checked tightly and closely matched up against by top defensive pairings. That takes teams to their 2nd lines VS 2nd pairings and often that is a write-off too. In close playoff series, the 3rd lines VS 3rd defensive pairings is what breaks games open. That's where the Canucks have a massive advantage.

 

If we can somehow squeak into the playoffs, I'm confident that the Canucks depth up front is certainly up there compared to the rest of the West. Sure the star power isn't there, and defensively it has to be to shutdown the big offensive juggernauts of the Pacific division, but if Edler and Tanev can somehow do that and our goalies can hang in there, our tertiary scorers (in particular Burrows, Horvat, Baertschi, maybe even Granlund and Rodin) will lift us in those tight playoff matchups.

You are a way more optimistic than I over how well a Canuck team would fare in CUP play. IMHO this roster is no where close. You said it. Playoff teams are tougher to play against. Better scorers and definitely tougher d-cores.

 

If the Canucks had a few more talented young forwards I might root for the Canucks make playoffs. The experience would help the younger players. I am of the opposing viewpoint and think that a playoff showing for 1 possible win in the opening series is not of long term benefit. I prefer that the Canucks draft a top 5 pick but the evolving reality is that they could drop to a top 10 - 15 pick. That being the case I hold out hope that Benning can pull off a TDL trade by moving Tanev for a pick or young forward prospect.

 

The current Canuck reality is that they are so thin up front that an injury to a Twin or Horvat probably sinks their season.   

[ABNuck]

220 is the goal for playoff teams, but 240 is the goal for contenders...the difference coming from the backend.

 

WD's game strategy is pretty obvious (so obvious that on more nights than not the opposing coach counters and we are playing from behind):

- quick, dynamic forwards (BoHo, Baer, Granny, Hansen, Megna etc)...kinda leaves the 3 Swedes out of that equation though...

- quick transition game (watching the Canucks in the past month it has been awesome to see)

- CONSERVATIVE DEFENCE (here's where we have lost the 20 goals from 2011...the 20 that made us a contender)

 

Our 2016/17 team has a huge gaping hole between our offence and our defence vs. our 2011 cup contender. Funny thing is, ever since we lost Ehrhoff most guys on here have been preaching the absence of 1 or 2 really strong transitional d-men to join that dynamic rush and overpower the other team with numbers...it's as if WD doesn't trust our forwards enough to back check so he doesn't allow Dougie to really release the reins on the D. Stecher seems just young enough and defiant enough to ignore those reins. But more is needed if we really want to be a contender again (ie/ over the next 2-3 years get rid of 3 particular slower forwards and introduce a young dynamic d-man or 2...I'm confident you all know who I'm beakin' about). Once Horvat completes his Jedi training (WD's defensive minded training for Bo) he will be a complete player who will allow a Dman to jump up into the play a bit more...add a couple more forwards to that group (ie/ get Baer and Virt thinking 2 way hockey) and we might begin to see that gap closing...and magically find those extra 20 from the backend.

[Hairy Kneel]

If Rattie drops to us and can get hot on the 4th line maybe?

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

3 hours ago, Eastcoast meets Westcoast said:

Added to that, I don't know what bump the twins got from having Hansen either. Gotta think they would do better with Hansen than Megna or ice cold Eriksson at the start of the year. 

I might run some numbers on this later if I have some free time.

 

But off memory and a quick look at some WOWY charts, I think over the last few years, Hansen bumps the twins' production by around 25-30% (compared to their numbers without him). And Daniel scores more around 50% more goals per minute with Hansen compared to without him (but Hank's goals rate stays roughly the same).

 

For Hansen, playing with the twins roughly doubles his goals rate per minute. But his assists rate is cut down significantly (I guess the twins start leaching those apples ), so his overall points rate increases slightly less than one would expect.

 

Again, that's mostly from memory and maybe a minute just now looking at the WOWYs, so I could be a bit off. I'll try to update with real numbers later.

[Phat Fingers]

3 hours ago, Toews said:

How about the fact that if our leading goal scorer ends up with 23 goals at the end of the season, Crosby would have equaled that total in his first 28 games. Can't wait for Boeser to get here.

 

This is definitely a score by committee team. 

[Boudrias]

43 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I might run some numbers on this later if I have some free time.

 

But off memory and a quick look at some WOWY charts, I think over the last few years, Hansen bumps the twins' production by around 25-30% (compared to their numbers without him). And Daniel scores more around 50% more goals per minute with Hansen compared to without him (but Hank's goals rate stays roughly the same).

 

For Hansen, playing with the twins roughly doubles his goals rate per minute. But his assists rate is cut down significantly (I guess the twins start leaching those apples ), so his overall points rate increases slightly less than one would expect.

 

Again, that's mostly from memory and maybe a minute just now looking at the WOWYs, so I could be a bit off. I'll try to update with real numbers later.

As always Sid, interesting.

[Phat Fingers]

7 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Kind of crazy that we have a real shot at eight 20-goal scorers (Don Cherry lifts an eyebrow and gets a little nervous) yet anyone scoring 30 seems like a pipedream.

 

 

We would be very fortunate to have 8 20g scorers. I think that we end up at 6 guys at 20+ or 19g. Eriksson has that goaless streak to start the season. He has been scoring at higher rate than I calculated since he started scoring.  Same with Baer. 

 

That is still great progress since last season when only two players broke the 20g mark. 

 

I have Bo, Baer, Daniel, Sutter, Henrik and Eriksson as 20g men this year. I don't believe that Granlund, Burrows and Hansen make it, but they could be 15g players. 

[RogersTowell]

Whoah, whoah, whoah there guys.  I'm always a glass half full guy and I'm quite happy with the 4 game winning streak (finally), but lets not get carried away here.  Even with a nice run we are still not in a playoff spot yet.  While we've won some games, they've hardly been dominant performances.  Talk of x number of 20 goal scorers and possible playoff runs are a bit optimistic at this stage.  Now I agree, this could potentially (although a long shot) be another Cinderella run like that first SCF run in the early 80s.  The thing is, it's a pretty long shot.  I'm going to just do what I've done all season long, and that's watch games, cheer for my team, yell at the TV when there are blatantly anti-Canuck calls made on the ice (or more to the point, from COTU) and enjoy the development of some of the young players.  If we make the playoffs, I'll be pleasantly surprised, if we get past the first round I'll be ecstatic, and anything beyond that I'll be driving the bandwagon bus.

 

If, on the other hand, we end up 9th-12th in the West and get an OK, but not stellar draft position, I won't get my panties in a knot.  I'll just be a fan exactly like I have been for the last 45+ years and enjoy watching hockey and having a local team to cheer for warts and all.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

3 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I might run some numbers on this later if I have some free time.

 

But off memory and a quick look at some WOWY charts, I think over the last few years, Hansen bumps the twins' production by around 25-30% (compared to their numbers without him). And Daniel scores more around 50% more goals per minute with Hansen compared to without him (but Hank's goals rate stays roughly the same).

 

For Hansen, playing with the twins roughly doubles his goals rate per minute. But his assists rate is cut down significantly (I guess the twins start leaching those apples ), so his overall points rate increases slightly less than one would expect.

 

Again, that's mostly from memory and maybe a minute just now looking at the WOWYs, so I could be a bit off. I'll try to update with real numbers later.

UPDATED

 

OK, quick numbers crunch on Hansen and the twins. Over the past three seasons (2014-17), here's how it breaks down (based on 5v5 WOWYs).

 

I chose 2014-17 somewhat at random. Figured it gave a decent sample size. And it's probably a good sample to look at the performance of post-prime Sedins and the team playing under Desjardins.

 

Hansen with Daniel: 1.31 goals/60, 2.15 points/60

 

Hansen without Daniel: 0.65 goals/60, 1.62 points/60

 

Hansen with Henrik: 1.16 goals/60, 1.91 points/60

 

Hansen without Henrik: 0.76 goals/60, 1.77 points/60

 

Daniel with Hansen: 1.00 goals/60, 2.23 points/60

 

Daniel without Hansen: 0.61 goals/60, 1.58 points/60

 

Henrik with Hansen: 0.33 goals/60, 2.16 points/60

 

Henrik without Hansen: 0.40 goals/60, 1.60 points/60

 

Unfortunately, I'm on mobile and couldn't search certain databases for more complex information. Puckalytics SuperWOWYs don't list individual production. So we'll have to make do with two player WOWY info and apply this roughly to what happens when the twins and Hansen play with/without each other.

 

Numbers pretty much agree with what I posted earlier. 

 

Hansen boosts the twins' points/60 even more than I'd suggested earlier (+41% for Daniel and +35% for Henrik). 

 

Hansen boosts Daniel's goals rate by +64%.

 

And due to Hansen scoring a few goals and points (in very limited minutes) with Daniel but without Henrik, we see a bit of a difference between the WOWYs for Hansen with either of the twins. Notably, Hansen's goals/60 is boosted a whopping +101% with Daniel, but "only" +53% with Henrik. Similarly, Hansen's points/60 are +33% with Daniel but only +8% with Henrik.

 

The with Henrik numbers are probably more indicative of what happens when all three are playing together.