Phat Fingers Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 We are almost at the halfway point this season and can start to look at a decent sample size to see if we have enough gas in the tank to get to the post season. Consensus is that we need to score at around 220gf this year to have a shot at the post season. Game 39 is in the books and there is some positve things to report, and some not so positve things too. Currently 5 Canucks are on pace to score 20g this season. 3 more are very close and Hansen is the wild card. Horvat is on pace for a 23g season. Baer is on pace for a 22g season. Daniel is on pace for a 21g season Henrik and Sutter are on pace for 19g seasons. Eriksson is on pace for 17g Burrows is on pace for 16g Granlund is on pace for 15g Hansen is the wildcard. Last year he hit 22g in 67 gp. His GPG average was 0.33. This year, he has 5g in 18 gp, for a gpg avg of 0.27. The team as whole has an outlier of the 9 game span. But even if he can make it back tomorrow, he would be on pace for 15g at his current GPG. If he sees a return to last season's GPG, he would be very close to hitting the 20g mark again this year. Either way, when Hansen does get back, the Sedins will score more. Henrik and Sutter are both in my unofficial margin of error to reach 20g this year. I am optimistic that our current trend is more positve than negative as our team has improving gf since that 9 game losing streak. If anything that streak has pulled down these numbers. Added to that, the Canucks have a history of being a late season team. Horvat and Baer are players that tend to produce better in the second half. Eriksson has had time to adjust and Hansen is hopefully healthy and can get 60 ish games. All points that should increase our offence over the next 45 games. Our top 9 is on pace for 167 goals this season. I would expect that to improve a bit with the above stated reasons, so having 180 goals from our top 9 is reasonable as a projection. I do not believe that we will score less than 167. We were well below our average in the first 20 games or so. Last season our top 9 producing forwards (Sutter is not included because he only played 20 games) scored a combined 118 goals. Wow, read that again, 118 goals all season. 120 if you replace Dorrset with Virtannen. IMO Dorsett was a top 9 player last year for us. Burrows and McCann round out the top 9. Even with our 9 game drought, the top 9 have produced 76 goals this season. Which is a 159 goal pace. I am basing my projections on the individual players. Either way, we at minimum are looking at a 40 goal bump in production from last season to this season. That at is a huge increase, and with Eriksson having some very big struggles early in the season. Now for for not so good news.... Last year our defence scored 23 goals all season. This year our defence is on pace for 18 goals. Edler and Sbisa Gudbranson and Tanev are way, way below their averages, Trymakin and Stecher are compete unknowns and Hutton already has a 400% increase over last years goal totals. The second half will hopefully see this defence produce more, but at this point it would be optimistic to see an increase in offence from our defence. For this team to have a legit shot at the playoffs we would need a projected 30 goal production defence. If Edler, Sbisa Gudbranson and Tanev can revert to their avg GPG for the remainder of the season, there is an outside chance, provided that Hutton can maintain his current pace. Huttons production is essentially replacing Bartowksi's and Hanhuis's from last season and more. He has been the lone bright spot, goal scoring wise from our defence. No other defender has scored more than one goal. Last but not least, our 4th line. Gaunce, Chaput and Rodin have no goals. Skille has 4 and Megna has 3 but some of those came from the Sedins. Dorsett has 1 goal for the year. Mash it all together the fourth line has 8 goals total, on pace for 17-18 goals. I think that is a bit high and we could see 15 goals from the 4th line, maybe. The current rate, we should just be around 200 gf this year, but if our recent upward trend is an indication we could hit the 220 gf mark. Thats striking distance to the playoffs and striking distance to a top ten pick, depending on your POV. EW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.