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New lottery system ideas?


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Seeing how Philly won the #2 pick spells potential disaster for NHL hockey. Imagine if the Blackhawks just missed the playoffs and got a McDavid player, bank on a 3 peat while he is on his ELC, this has to be prevented before it happens. 

 

 So 15 teams miss the playoffs every year.

 

Let's draw for the top 5 instead of 3.

 

So let's say the 5 best teams get a 0% chance at a top 5 pick.

 

So only 10 teams in the lottery. So here's what I think the odds should be

 

1 - 17%

2 - 16%

3 - 15%

4 - 14%

5 - 13%

6 - 9%

7 - 7%

8 - 4%

9 - 3%

10 - 2%

 

The system they have now is a danger to building unbeatable teams. No odds should be giving to teams that could very well be in the playoffs and by giving 0% chance to the 5 best non playoff teams prevents something like this.

 

You want the bad teams to get the good players to even out the league, but sometimes a team feels it's better to teat down and lose all year for 1 player, what's the sense when the odds between the bottom 5 teams are so close that there's a very good chance you don't win. There is even a 25% chance that a bottom 5 team won't win at all. 

 

And here you have a nice lottery system that will work. A lot more than the one in place anyway. Scares people away from the tank logic while also giving the teams in need the better players for the most part. Chance of dropping 5 spots instead of 3 is scary but very unlikely to happen.

 

What's sad about the system now is we had more of a chance to pick 5 than anywhere else, that is terrible odds for a team so desperate for that pick

 

Obviously it's not perfect I literally thought it out while typing but it is deffiently better than the system in place. I'm interested to see some other ideas as well so don't be shy throw some ideas out :)

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I was thinking something like this:
- Do a lottery for the top 3 positions but only for the bottom 7 teams.  Teams in this tier, had the worst records, so they would benefit the most out of a top 3 pick.

- Odds would be weighted similarly to how they are done now - best odds for the worst team, etc.

- Do a 2nd lottery for the remaining 8 teams. It could be for the top 2 or 3 posions within that tier (8th, 9th, 10th)... or the 2 lotteries could even overlap, meaning that the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th picks could be given to teams in either tier,  though I'd also limit it so that no team can drop more than 2 positions.

This would keep things fairer, as a team like Philly would only be able to move up to 6th at best, which is still a big jump.

This also makes it a bit more exciting for all non playoff teams, as all have a decent chance to move up to a better position. 

Likewise, no team will drop more than 2 spots.

 

The biggest fault with the current system is that bad teams who really need a high end prospect can get bumped down in favour of a near playoff team.

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14 minutes ago, Top Sven Baercheese said:

I don't mind the 3 draws at all. I liked it before when a team could only move up a certain amount (5 spots or something?) 

Yeah, that would be a simple solution. There would still be a chance that the worst teams could drop 3 spots, but it may be less likely.

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Well people did want to defeat the purpose of tanking, this is what that looks like. Having known fans who followed terrible teams I knew that all the complaining about tanking could come back to bite the Canucks when it came time for this team to face some harsh realities. What was wrong with the old system in the first place? The Oilers had an unbelievable streak of luck, the odds of them stacking that many lottery wins is nearly impossible but yet it occurred.  The response to that shouldn't have been such a drastic change to the odds. I would have liked them to pursue rules that adjusted the odds for previous lottery winners so that the Oilers scenario did not occur. The current lottery system seems to have been borrowed from the NBA, and it works for the NBA because it isn't a problem for that league to have unbalanced teams. Networks are going to pay a huge amount of money so that they can cover the Cavs and the Warriors in the NBA Finals. The NHL does not work like that, this league when is at his healthiest when there is parity and the current system does not do that.

 

Its a sad reality where luck in a lottery determines which teams end up the next power houses.

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22 minutes ago, Agoork said:

Yeah, that would be a simple solution. There would still be a chance that the worst teams could drop 3 spots, but it may be less likely.

True, but still highly unlikely. In the scenario such as yesterday I believe the picks would've been:
1. Devils
2. Avalanche
3. Canucks
4. Stars
5. Coyotes
6. Knights
7. Sabres
8. Wings
9. Flyers
10. Panthers
11. Kings
12. Hurricanes
13. Jets

Still prefer the old system anyway though. 

 

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If you want to completely discourage tanking, take 15 balls and throw them into a basket and have them drop like the lotto balls.  Every team gets a 6.66% of winning (100/15) and first to drop picks 15, then 14, then 13, etc. Make it the luck of the draw, no benifit to tanking outside of trying to get 8th or 9th in the conference just to get a shot at a top pick rather than a 1st round sweep.

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Instead of a lottery, wouldn't it be entertaining to have the GM's vote on who picked first?  After that team was chosen, the second pick overall would be chosen, etc. until you picked the top five (for example) draft positions.

 

There'd be lots of room for politicking, intrigue and conspiracy theories!  :)

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2 hours ago, Toews said:

Well people did want to defeat the purpose of tanking, this is what that looks like. Having known fans who followed terrible teams I knew that all the complaining about tanking could come back to bite the Canucks when it came time for this team to face some harsh realities. What was wrong with the old system in the first place? The Oilers had an unbelievable streak of luck, the odds of them stacking that many lottery wins is nearly impossible but yet it occurred.  The response to that shouldn't have been such a drastic change to the odds. I would have liked them to pursue rules that adjusted the odds for previous lottery winners so that the Oilers scenario did not occur. The current lottery system seems to have been borrowed from the NBA, and it works for the NBA because it isn't a problem for that league to have unbalanced teams. Networks are going to pay a huge amount of money so that they can cover the Cavs and the Warriors in the NBA Finals. The NHL does not work like that, this league when is at his healthiest when there is parity and the current system does not do that.

 

Its a sad reality where luck in a lottery determines which teams end up the next power houses.

This 100%

 

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Lottery should only be for the first overall pick for the teams that did not make the playoffs.  If you win the first pick you cant have a first overall pick for another 5  years.  Using this system the worst the Canucks could have picked yesterday was third.  They can even use the same (more evenly weighted anti-coiler) odds that they put in place post 2015 for the first overall.

 

Unfortunately the horse is out of the barn now and rebuilding teams will have to draw from a deck using different rules than the coilers had to build their hand...all this while trying to compete with them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Changing the system now would be folly for the Canucks.  They've been kicked in the nuts twice by it but will hopefully slowly improve in the standings despite it.  As the Canucks improve, hopefully they can finally reap the benefits of it one year and jump 7-10 spots.  Changing things now would just mean we are left with getting kicked in the nuts and no chance at redemption.

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2 hours ago, Toews said:

Well people did want to defeat the purpose of tanking, this is what that looks like. Having known fans who followed terrible teams I knew that all the complaining about tanking could come back to bite the Canucks when it came time for this team to face some harsh realities. What was wrong with the old system in the first place? The Oilers had an unbelievable streak of luck, the odds of them stacking that many lottery wins is nearly impossible but yet it occurred.  The response to that shouldn't have been such a drastic change to the odds. I would have liked them to pursue rules that adjusted the odds for previous lottery winners so that the Oilers scenario did not occur. The current lottery system seems to have been borrowed from the NBA, and it works for the NBA because it isn't a problem for that league to have unbalanced teams. Networks are going to pay a huge amount of money so that they can cover the Cavs and the Warriors in the NBA Finals. The NHL does not work like that, this league when is at his healthiest when there is parity and the current system does not do that.

 

Its a sad reality where luck in a lottery determines which teams end up the next power houses.

Not all people wanted a lottery. I for one never thought it was a good idea and I'm sure many more thought the same way. You don't speak for all people.

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There are other ways to stop a team from drawing 1st overall 3 years running.  Wasn't that the reason why they went with this new lottery?

 

I know the lottery has been used for some time but it was only for 1 OA which meant that any given team couldn't fall by more than 1 spot.

 

I would rather see no lottery at all.  I don't believe that teams tank intentionally very often.  I also don't think it's fair that a team should get 1OA too often.  Dumb luck got the Oilers 3 in a row and 4 in 6 years.  That crazyness was the product of a lottery.  Isn't that argument enough for doing away with a lucky draw?  The league's solution to make the draw even more lucky is wrong headed.  The point of the draft system where the worst team picks first is obviously parity and I think they've lost this with the present system.  There is no way a team should be able to move up 11 spots to #2; it's ridiculous.

 

Let's have no lottery and a team can't have 1 OA more than once every 3 years.  

 

It's a simple system and it puts the emphasis on players as opposed to bad management.

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What about a system that allows all 15 teams a chance to win a better position.....weight all balls the same and have a ball for each team moving up in the draft, and could only move up 3 positions, if you won 1st you could not win 1st place for 4 years, if you won 2nd you could not have 2nd for 3 years, if you won 3rd you could win 3rd for 2 years, if you won 4 or 5 you couldn't win that spot next year and would drop an extra spot. So in fact the worst place team, can only drop 1 position (as with the other teams), and the 15th place actually has the best odds of winning.... but only on a calibrated scale.

 

for example.

 

15th place team would have a ball for moving into 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,  = 14 equally weighted balls

14th  place team would have...................................13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 13 equally weighted balls

13th place team would have....................................12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 12 equally weighted balls

12th place team would have....................................11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 11 equally weighted balls

11th place team would have....................................10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 10 equally weighted balls

10th place team would have.................................... 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 9 equally weighted balls

9th place team would have.......................................8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 8 equally weighted balls

8th place team would have ......................................7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 7 equally weighted balls

7th place team would have.......................................6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 6 equally weighted balls

6th place team would have.......................................5, 4, 3, 2, 1 = 5 equally weighted balls

5th place team would have.......................................4, 3, 2, 1 = 4 equally weighted balls

4th place team would have.......................................3, 2, 1 = 3 equally weighted balls

3rd place team would have.......................................2, 1 = 2 equally weighted balls

2nd place team would have......................................1 = 1 equally weighted ball

1st place team would have ......................................1 = 1 equally weighted ball

 

Dropping  the fist place ball the next year.........after winning a spot the previous year = example

 

2020 draft

1st pick Montreal

2nd pick Colorado

3rd pick Vancouver

4th place Ottawa

 

2021 Draft (same order for illustration purposes)

Montreal wins again, but because it won last year drops to 2nd and Colorado takes 1st, Montreal takes 2nd Vancouver gets 3rd.and so on

 

2022 Draft (same order for illustration purposes)

Montreal wins again, but falls to 3rd because it has won both position above in the last 2 years

Colorado gets 4th as it has also picked both positions in the past 2 years

Vancouver moves to 1st, as it is the highest seed that hasn't won 1st or 2nd pick in the past 2 years

Arizona moves from 4th to 2nd as it was the second team that is eligible for the 2nd pick

5th pick would be the same and so on

 

Some version of this would do me fine.........complicated, but much more fare

Chances are the worst team will not get the 1st overall pick, but will still pick very high

 

I can't quite get it, but maybe someone could expand on this idea, and make it right if worthy....I might just be too complicated as I said earlier

 

 

 

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- Draft by regular season standings for the bottom 15 teams. 

- Draft by a mix of regular season standings and playoff results for the 16 teams .

- Increase draft to 8 rounds. 

- Snake draft. Worst team gets best in rounds 1,3,5,7. Best team gets best choice in rounds 2,4,6,8. i.e 31st team drafts both 31st and 32nd. 

 

If the point of the draft is to discourage tanking, it's not working. This allows the bad teams to still pick decently and not drop because of bad luck. But requires more 

scouting. 

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