[Rumour] Oilers Ready to Trade RNH Below Value

[shiznak]

49 minutes ago, Jiggs50 said:

We could be 10 years away and I still wouldn't want that soft and made of glass 6 million boy Nuge 

The same soft boy who went up against Joe Thornton and Ryan Getzlaf in the playoffs, who also had 45 blocked shots, which would have ranked him 4th on our team amongst the forwards.

[agent007]

4 hours ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

You're doing it again (assuming that picks turn out, when you should be assuming no such thing).  You have to look at the chance that they turn out instead.  The probability.  Not the pie-in-the-sky dream, but the reality.  You can't just cherry-pick the best ones and assume that's what you'll get with your picks (like everyone does around here all day).

 

A top-5 pick doesn't guarantee you a 'difference making guy'.  Remember Bryan Allen?  We took him 4th overall.  Virtanen?  6th.  Stojanov 7th.  Herter 8th.  Woodley 7th.  Sandlak 4th.  Etc...  You can't just look at the Sedins and say that we're going to get superstars with our top-5 or 10 picks.  About half of our top-10 picks don't turn out - ever.  Half.  You can't just look at a top-10 pick and say you're going to get a great player with that pick - that's not what history has shown us happens.  History has shown us that only a fraction of top-picks turn out, not 100%.  You have to account for that in the value of a pick.  If you have 6 top-10 picks in your pool of prospects, you have to assume that 3 of them are never going to make it to the show full-time.  Ever in their careers.

 

Read that link I posted - and try to understand what it all means.

 

For instance, you'll notice that the average expected-value of a top-5 draft pick is only a top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman.  Half do better, half do worse.  That means that half of top-5 picks never make it onto the top two lines.  They never become a star.  Half of top-5 picks. 

We get it.. Your an analytics guy. Sorry to Break it to you but hockey cannot be optimized by analytics.

 

I just wanted to comment on your probability point. The thing is probabilty of draft pick does not 100% correlate to value. Value of a draft pick whether it be 1, top 3, top 5, top 10, or top 30 is based on the team selecting the player. Some teams value certain players higher than others and have strong opinions on the probability of a certain player succeeding. Although probablity has something to do with it, it's not the end all be all.

 

An example of this is the Schnieder deal. 

[iinatcc]

It's actually pretty sad to see the Oiler's young future from the Oil Change era being given away for less of their value. 

 

I can only imagine how hard it must be for Hall, Eberle, Yakupov, and soon RNH have part of their legacy with a failed rebuild.

 

That said he needs to be part of a team that needs a 2nd line center but with talented wingers. I am thinking maybe CBJ (after losing Saad), and MTL (not so good center depth) might be the best trading partners. 

[tiny]

The canucks would be lucky if oilers trade rnh to them. It wouldn't cost much to get him it's a salary dump for the oiler

this kid can play and he's still young 

Sutter oilers 

rnh canucks retain 1.3 million for the next 2 or 3 years of sutter contract 

oiler gonna need 3rdline center move up caggiula to the wing and save 3million 

canucks get a true 1st line or 2nd line center 

 

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

RNH is still a young high potential player and even though Oilers will likely not receive top value for him anymore, there will be a number of teams that will be interested in him.  But I don't see Vancouver being one of those teams.

[JM_]

10 hours ago, khay said:

I agree with you, but one reason why we might want RNH is if Pettersson takes long time to develop, say 3 to 5 years. Then, RNH is a good choice to fill that gap along with Horvat.

 

Maybe at 4 mil.... but 6? ouch. 

 

There are going to be a lot of free agent C's in 2018/19 as well, so there's no need to get locked up with RNH. Edmonton is looking to "sell low" because they aren't going to be sending any prime assets along with him to a team, but they will take a low offer back to free them of the cap hit. I'd rather get a better face-off veteran guy on a shorter term while Pettersson develops. 

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2019/caphit/all/center/ufa

[Rocky Balboa]

Toronto just got a hard-on.

 

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

20 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

Maybe at 4 mil.... but 6? ouch. 

 

There are going to be a lot of free agent C's in 2018/19 as well, so there's no need to get locked up with RNH. Edmonton is looking to "sell low" because they aren't going to be sending any prime assets along with him to a team, but they will take a low offer back to free them of the cap hit. I'd rather get a better face-off veteran guy on a shorter term while Pettersson develops. 

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2019/caphit/all/center/ufa

I guess it would depend on what canucks are giving up to get him.  This year it might be a bit of a miss mash but next year if the twins retire he could become quite beneficial, especially if Sutter isn't the piece were giving up.  That would give us RNH, Bo and Sutter down the middle until Pettersson is able to jump into the NHL. 

 

 

but with that said, i'd still just prefer to maintain course and continue to build through the draft.  A franchise QB D in this years draft should be the top priority for the team,  Dahlin, Merkley or Hughes.

[TheRick]

Who would've thought that 4 of the top Oilers picks, Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and soon to be RNH, who were suppose to cornerstones of the next great Oilers dynasty get traded below their market value. They were the stars of the Oilers reality show 'Oil Change'. Funny thing is that Taylor Hall, the one that started this so called resurgence, is the only one out of those names that hasn't made the playoffs yet.

[apollo]

7 minutes ago, TheRick said:

Who would've thought that 4 of the top Oilers picks, Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and soon to be RNH, who were suppose to cornerstones of the next great Oilers dynasty get traded below their market value. They were the stars of the Oilers reality show 'Oil Change'. Funny thing is that Taylor Hall, the one that started this so called resurgence, is the only one out of those names that hasn't made the playoffs yet.

Out of the bunch, I still think Hall is by far the best player. 

 

Oilers should have added something on RNH or Eberle in the Larsson trade and kept Hall. 

 

Ciarelli is not a good GM. Anyone inheriting Connor could turn the ship around...

[kloubek]

I really don't see a need for him.  

 

1) He doesn't perform to the level his salary would dictate

2) We don't need another soft player
3) We certainly don't need him this season while we still have Henrik, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sedins sign for another year or two.

4) Depending on how Pettersson and Horvat progress, they are expected to be our 1-2 centers.  So that places RNH as 3rd.  6m for 3rd line?  No thanks - we already have that in Eriksson.  (Though I believe Eriksson will re-find his game and contribute more this coming season)  Yes he would be a stop gap until Pettersson is ready for that role, and yes, maybe it is possible it takes him 4 years to become our #1 center but the conditions have to be just right to make that make any level of sense, and even then we're still overpaying.

PLUS we'd have to give something worthwhile in return?  

Nah.  It just doesn't make sense to me.

[JM_]

42 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I guess it would depend on what canucks are giving up to get him.  This year it might be a bit of a miss mash but next year if the twins retire he could become quite beneficial, especially if Sutter isn't the piece were giving up.  That would give us RNH, Bo and Sutter down the middle until Pettersson is able to jump into the NHL. 

 

 

but with that said, i'd still just prefer to maintain course and continue to build through the draft.  A franchise QB D in this years draft should be the top priority for the team,  Dahlin, Merkley or Hughes.

I actually think Loui E for RNH makes the most sense for both teams despite the jokes. We just don't have the cap space for a different deal, and any other player (Tanev, Guddy, Sutter) are too valuable to give up for what RNH brings. If we were really trying to be a playoff team, could surround RNH with skilled wingers, play him 70-80% in the o-zone this would be a different discussion but this team isn't there yet. 

 

 

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

I actually think Loui E for RNH makes the most sense for both teams despite the jokes. We just don't have the cap space for a different deal, and any other player (Tanev, Guddy, Sutter) are too valuable to give up for what RNH brings. If we were really trying to be a playoff team, could surround RNH with skilled wingers, play him 70-80% in the o-zone this would be a different discussion but this team isn't there yet. 

 

 

That makes sense for us (Loui for RNH) but the Oilers need Cap room, especially next season.  I see them trading RNH for futures, so they can save the Cap room.

[JM_]

8 minutes ago, Alflives said:

That makes sense for us (Loui for RNH) but the Oilers need Cap room, especially next season.  I see them trading RNH for futures, so they can save the Cap room.

It makes sense for EDM too, Draisaitl is going to have to carry a line on his own now, so Loui would be a great fit with him imo. Same reasoning as putting him with Bo. 

 

EDM would still have 14 mil in cap space in 2018/19 to go out and get a true 3C if one of their current prospects doesn't work out. In the meantime they can go get a guy like Fiddler who's good on faceoffs for a cheap 1 year deal. 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

19 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

I actually think Loui E for RNH makes the most sense for both teams despite the jokes. We just don't have the cap space for a different deal, and any other player (Tanev, Guddy, Sutter) are too valuable to give up for what RNH brings. If we were really trying to be a playoff team, could surround RNH with skilled wingers, play him 70-80% in the o-zone this would be a different discussion but this team isn't there yet. 

 

 

Yeah that's why i don't really see Vancouver as a real option.  Heck, if it was after the 2018 draft and the sedin's just confirmed retirement.  Then sure it would make more sense but that's not where we are at today and RNH is likely moved long before the 2018 draft

[Boudrias]

13 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

It makes sense for EDM too, Draisaitl is going to have to carry a line on his own now, so Loui would be a great fit with him imo. Same reasoning as putting him with Bo. 

 

EDM would still have 14 mil in cap space in 2018/19 to go out and get a true 3C if one of their current prospects doesn't work out. In the meantime they can go get a guy like Fiddler who's good on faceoffs for a cheap 1 year deal. 

Why would the Oilers take Eriksson's contract? One could even ask why the Canucks would move Loui if one of the main reasons acquiring him was for the transition period after the Twins left. With the right players I like RNH's game. I like Turris even better. 196 pounds vs 190 pounds but Turris has really developed his game at both ends. 

[JM_]

16 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Why would the Oilers take Eriksson's contract? One could even ask why the Canucks would move Loui if one of the main reasons acquiring him was for the transition period after the Twins left. With the right players I like RNH's game. I like Turris even better. 196 pounds vs 190 pounds but Turris has really developed his game at both ends. 

Because he's a good player. If you want to talk about actual 2-way players, Loui is one of those guys (RNH isnt). So Loui brings better 2-way play and would be a skilled winger on LD's line. Here's a good explanation of what Loui brings (https://canucksarmy.com/2017/03/16/loui-eriksson-is-having-a-far-better-season-than-you-probably-think/)

 

Just to shore up my argument here - Loui and LD together could be a possession nightmare for opposing teams. Loui's been a +possession player his entire career, and with BOS had a CF% of 57%. 

 

[Ronaldoescobar]

 

Sutter alone will not get you RNH but adding our first is a huge over payment. I would be surprised if the oil take Tanev alone as well but that would wreck our D. Finally it doesnt matter if the player has all world offensive talent if they dont play a good 200ft solid defensive game the nucks are not interested period. RNH just doesnt fit.

[billabong]

A soft 40 point 6 million dollar player is someone you just want to get rid of without any salary retained or take back any salary and maybe decent piece 

 

i could see like car, njd, ari or col taking a stab at just to get to floor of the cap

[VIC_CITY]

1 hour ago, S'all Good Man said:

I actually think Loui E for RNH makes the most sense for both teams despite the jokes. We just don't have the cap space for a different deal, and any other player (Tanev, Guddy, Sutter) are too valuable to give up for what RNH brings. If we were really trying to be a playoff team, could surround RNH with skilled wingers, play him 70-80% in the o-zone this would be a different discussion but this team isn't there yet. 

Ya but Edmonton doesn't exactly have any centers lining up to replace RNH. They would need a 3C coming back in a trade. I also have a hard time imagining them (or anyone else) being intetested 5 years of 31 year old LE. There's also the fact that Edmonton would only be trading RNH to clear salary, something a LE swap does not accomplish and there's no way we eat any of LE's contract, paying RNH more than his already inflated $6M a year. Believe me, I wish they would. But it just doesn't make any sense from the Oilers perspective.