[Discussion] The Pros and Cons of Adding Erik Karlsson

[BigTramFan]

5 hours ago, DrJockitch said:

Yeah that will be easy.  I am sure that Carolina has no idea what they have there and will be happy to give him away.

Only way you get a Pesce is you draft and develop him.  How many times have we seen D of his calibre traded?  Seth Jones is the only one that comes to mind in recent years other than the PK for Shea trade.  It took Taylor Hall just to get an average D-man.

Oh silly me! I didn’t realise they wouldn’t give Pesce away!

[Hindustan Smyl]

10 hours ago, SilentSam said:

 

But you stated the above..    “formula for winning”.  >.   “1 elite defenseman at minimum”.

 

        We have NEVER had an Elite D man...   Still don’t.   We have to buy one.

           

 

I completely agree......which is why this Karlsson debate is so interesting to me.

 

On the one hand, it’s been proven that teams with cost controlled elite talent + depth (ie the old Chicago and LA models) can win multiple cups.

 

As has been pointed out however, those old models might be going the way to the dinosaur due to the cap increase.....and that in the future (and even present), it’s pretty much a pipe dream to try and get elite talent to “buy in” by taking a discount of some kind.

 

As much as we might want someone like Elias Pettersson to sign for 8.5-9 million dollars when the time comes (instead of 10.5-11), is it a realistic wish?   I’m not so sure.

 

 

[cdubuya]

1 hour ago, hammertime said:

Hes not even the most valuable player in SJ

yea, well, I did say arguably. SJ has some amazing players. You could make the same case for Brent Burns. Karlsson was truly inspirational in the 2017 playoffs and I don't believe he is going to be regressing that hard any time soon. He has been playing hurt all season and still looks amazing. I haven't seen McDavid put the Oilers on his back like Karlsson did with Ottawa in 2017. Plus Dmen soak up way more time than forwards do. 

[Hindustan Smyl]

1 hour ago, Wanless said:

This is exactly why I believe the Oilers will always struggle and the Leafs are gonna be a first round exit team for quite some time.

 

I get the impression that the Leafs throw around money just to be able to say they have some of the highest salaried players in the league.

Although I am often wrong with my predictions and forecasts, on every thing I DID accurately predict last season was that the Tavares signing would likely result in a zero sum game for Toronto.  Adding Tavares while losing guys like JVR, Bozak, and others, would create a “robbing Peter to pay Paul” situation. 

 

Toronto will now have to deal with the monster known as the Marner situation.  Do they trade Marner for picks?  Or, do they hemorrhage even more depth by creating room for Marner’s new contract?

[shazzam]

My only concern is his health. We have enough injury prone players as it is. 

 

Can't deny his talent and vision

[IBatch]

13 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

I completely agree......which is why this Karlsson debate is so interesting to me.

 

On the one hand, it’s been proven that teams with cost controlled elite talent + depth (ie the old Chicago and LA models) can win multiple cups.

 

As has been pointed out however, those old models might be going the way to the dinosaur due to the cap increase.....and that in the future (and even present), it’s pretty much a pipe dream to try and get elite talent to “buy in” by taking a discount of some kind.

 

As much as we might want someone like Elias Pettersson to sign for 8.5-9 million dollars when the time comes (instead of 10.5-11), is it a realistic wish?   I’m not so sure.

 

 

Let’s hope we sign EP for 11.5...if that’s the case he will become one of the best centers in the league.   Tavares contract was very fair considering what the market felt he was worth (SJ with their 13 million offer), UFAs that are star players coming off team friendly contracts especially (remember he got two million less than Stamkos RFA contract at 5 ish million and is arguably an equal player) ... that said things have gone sideways big time over the last 12 plus months starting with McDavid (Crosby’s second contract was near the top at the time but not that high) and then Eichel, and more recently Nylander (WTF really should be 5-6) and even more so the inflated AM contract (he’s been paid like a top three player which so far he is not) and soon Marner will be added to the list.  Excellent UFAs are supposed to get their pay day, and that’s OK.  Now star players are getting their money deals on their second contracts too which is going to throw a wrench in a lot of GMs plans and limit their ability to go after UFAs like EK and last summer Tavares.  

 

IF we go after EK and overpay his services thats ok, our right side is horrible and he’d undoubtedly help boost the team once he settles in.  EP and Boeser and Horvat and everyone will be stoked to play with him, his “decline” is very much exaggerated.   He’s still in his prime and as an athlete is in incredible shape.  Yes there are hard miles on him, and yes the last couple years of his contract will likely end up similar to when we waited for the Sedins to pack it in.  But he’s arguably the best defenseman of his era, and those guys don’t usually Peter our in their thirty’s, a lot of them like Burns have their best seasons in their early thirties, Al McCinnes won his only Norris close to the end of his career, and don’t get me started about Lidstrom.   As far as injuries go, it would be unfortunate but if he does the way of Pronger, Forsberg, Bure,  Bossy and Orr then the team that gets him will be somewhat off the hook.  

 

Like Wilson says when a player of his caliber is available you put your chips on the table. We are one of the teams he was Ok with a trade too, he’s incredibly loyal and an amazing ambassador of the game with his community much like the Sedins.  Personally I will be stoked if we get him, we are in a position cap wise to make it work, not a lot of teams are including SJ (but they can also make it work).  I think he will stay in California.  But hope he comes here.

[Pete M]

Con...he is on the ice for more goals against than goals for

 

Pro...he is a puck moving dman

 

a minus muncher, however, out weighs the pros

 

[IBatch]

On page 44 and 45 of THNs UFA mag (recent) they delve into whether the underlying numbers indicate if EKs next contract will be worth it or if he’s still capable of playing like he did in OTT pre-ankle surgery etc.  

 

The answer is yes.  They feel that his low shooting percent has more to do with lack of goals this year than anything (1.8)  and should regress to his mean next year or at some point soon, and his underlying metrics are still elite even on half a left ankle.  They went on to state that Karlsson will maintain a Norris worthy standard for at least half of his contract and given his skating and smarts will have have plenty to offer as a PP quarterback wily vet in the remainder.  

 

They end off saying we should ignore any recent Karlsson game film that suggests  he’s not the man he was (the article clearly demonstrated that he is with analytics) given that the numbers tell us otherwise.  

 

This is the guy that was either first or second in Norris trophy voting four years in a row and was robbed of at least one (the article says two, that’s debatable) by Doughty.  And then hit a wall in OTTs parking lot blow out sale year, and took some time for SJ to get used to what he can do (in Wilson’s own words in Dec), the exploded right until his groin issues this year.   Anyone who thinks he’s done isn’t paying attention to the details.  I remember when Ovi was a similar age and only scored “like 35 goals” was all dried up, then went on to win four more Rocket Richard trophies and could see the same thing happening to EK.   Two down years by his lofty standards and explanations for it if you want to look deeper.  

 

Hes the best defenseman of his generation and it really isn’t close (sorry Doughty what did you do this year to help your team?  EK did more with less for years in OTT).   Guys that are that good don’t Peter out in their thirties, heck if he’s healthy he could still give Lidstrom a run for his money when it goes for individual hardware before it’s all said and done...Just stop blocking so many shots...

[mikeyman109]

On 4/25/2019 at 6:39 AM, Goal:thecup said:

Pros of adding Erik Karlsson: becoming a contender.

Cons of adding Erik Karlsson: none.

Bolded, i don't think this  move makes us an instant contender, we are more than just 1 defenseman away from being a Stanley cup contender.

We are probably three defense short and Karlsson would just drop that to 2. we still need at least 1 to 2 more top 6 forwards. I vote no on this mostly because we aren't ready for that kind of move yet. It would only move us up slightly and ruin our draft spot.

[mikeyman109]

On 4/25/2019 at 10:09 AM, RonMexico said:

 

I know you have sincerely put some thought into this but this just reads like dumpster diving which Benning has been doing since he started here. I know you don't like signing bigger free agents as a way to build up your team, many people agree with you too, but at a certain point you have to aim a little higher. Instead of adding role players, it's time to bring in some guys who aren't gambles and are on the upside of the careers. Sure they are costly but you aren't getting higher end talent for free.

I agree with your thinking here but Karlsson i not the FA i would go after. Oft injured and we have seen that enough with Edler and Tanev.

If i had my pic id go after Lee. Smart player a little rough and tumble and a great leader

[Chris12345]

On 4/25/2019 at 7:30 AM, EliasBoeser said:

Con: Probably does not want to play in Vancouver

Haha! There's no way he wants to play in Vancouver.

[Chris12345]

I'd rather sign Ron Hainsey and let Hughes develop.

 

I think they get Gardiner.

[MikeBossy]

Personally I don't see where he fits in with us - he will want max price max term. We are still building our core. This would make sense in a couple years maybe but not right now. Runs the risk of becoming an anchor contract the older he gets plus you know he is getting a NMC - hard pass. We can grab a cheaper option (not as good obviously) such as Miller in Vegas.

[Hairy Kneel]

Wow did you see him struggling to skate back last night?Slower than molasses. He's doing some serious damage to whatever injury he has. 

And him AND Tanev taking huge hits back there?  

[Chris12345]

44 minutes ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Wow did you see him struggling to skate back last night?Slower than molasses. He's doing some serious damage to whatever injury he has. 

And him AND Tanev taking huge hits back there?  

Yea not a good addition.  

[JeremyCuddles]

Pros: He's got nice hair

 

 

Cons: Almost everything else

 

[IBatch]

8 hours ago, mikeyman109 said:

Bolded, i don't think this  move makes us an instant contender, we are more than just 1 defenseman away from being a Stanley cup contender.

We are probably three defense short and Karlsson would just drop that to 2. we still need at least 1 to 2 more top 6 forwards. I vote no on this mostly because we aren't ready for that kind of move yet. It would only move us up slightly and ruin our draft spot.

You can tell that to OTT three years ago. One goal away from the final in OT, won by the eventual winners.  SJ is a tired declining team who might end up in the final in large part to adding EK.  All the data backs up the fact that he’s still pkaying at an elite level and with some time and rest could still win three or four Norris trophies (stop blocking so many shots though!!).   I’m not not convinced he’s done.   In fact I think he’s got a lot of miles left and is going to win some more hardware including  a cup.   He’s that good.

[The Lock]

Pros: He has a mustache.

 

Cons: It's an expensive mustache.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, The Lock said:

Pros: He has a mustache.

 

Cons: It's an expensive mustache.

But it goes with that rocker hair ...

[The Lock]

Just now, IBatch said:

But it goes with that rocker hair ...

I'll trade him! I have 1 or 2 hairs left.... somewhere....