[Discussion] Arizona/OEL

[Smashian Kassian]

15 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Boston has 12 forwards under contract - one RFA - DeBrusk - that they appear to be shopping/entertaining dealing the rights to.

 

They have 14 million of cap space - and while they have 3 expiring LHD - that also have plenty of candidates to take at least one of those spots (and my re-sign Gryzelcyk - who knows about Chara..).

 

They don't really have cap to dump (and they only have one year of Backes x 1.5 in the background).

 

They have a wealthy, powerful owner and have enjoyed A LOT of bonus playoff revenue, year after year to this point....

 

They are FAR BETTER positioned to make a deal like this work.  They haven't exactly shown an aversion to veterans at any point of their continuing build.

 

They'd have to literally, borderline reject this out of hand in order for the Canucks to walk away with OEL with the kind of proposals optimistically being 'believed' in here.

 

I'm not going to pretend to know what is going to happen  - I don't - and the variables are even more interesting and complex than usual (but a lot of people 'usually' lack much perspective in trade rumours / or trade assessements like these).....

 

so I'll be holding out with some skepticism until these chips fall - because - word of unsolicited advice here - it's better to go into a movie theatre with low expectations and leave pleasantly surprised, than it is to go into it expecting a blockbuster and leave having seen....what we typically do (and that's in spite of having seen a lovely blockbuster last offseason - which nevertheless, was met with rage, fury, and disbelief that Benning would spend a 1st on a 'cap dump').

 

 

Canucks have better pieces to trade though.

 

Boston's best piece is DeBrusk, and do they really want to do that? 

[peaches5]

2 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

7 years left, and he's 29. This means he would be 36 when his contract expires and probably near the end of his career. Good timing, as 36 isn't that old for a Swedish Dman (Lidstrom was 42, Kronwall was 39), and he's had a history of being healthy. 

 

Edler is 34, and even though he only has one year left on his contract, I can see him re-signing and playing another 2-3 years as well.

He’s 35 when his contract ends. 

Edited October 2, 2020 by peaches5

[Smashian Kassian]

29 minutes ago, aGENT said:

They're more inclined to add to that given their need for LD, the age of their core etc. With Krug leaving they also have some cap space whereas we'd need to move some (here or elsewhere).

 

They're better positioned to make a deal and pay a higher asset cost given those circumstances. We'd need to hedge more. Will they? Who knows.

 

Fair enough. Cap wise they seem better on the surface but as I reliped to Oldnews they have HUGE areas to fill given Krejci/Rask expiring next year then McAvoy extension around the corner. They asset wise who's got better pieces to move, us or Boston? Id think us but I guess either could get it done.

[oldnews]

5 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

In terms of roster they are different. I meant similar in that there's other cap considerations & they traded a first/don't have a ton of great prospects. (We prob have more)

 

They don't have cap dumps like we do but they are pressed for cap space. They got DeBrusk to do now (27 goal scorer), Krug & Chara to replace and then; Carlo, Krejci & Rask expiring the year following. Alot of holes to fill & you can't handcuff yourself filling them b/c McAvoy is up the following year & due for a huge raise. It also depends how they want to go with an aging core, I assume if they are getting OEL they are going for it.

 

And wouldn't exactly call any of those prospects sure fire anymore than Juolevi, Rafferty or Rathbone. Lauzon & Zboril are 2015 picks idk if your betting on them taking over for Chara & Krug.

 

they have 14 million to fill three spots - in a deflated, buyer's market.

they don't need any of their D prospects to be "sure fire".

they are in a very strong immediate position.

[oldnews]

 

 

has it happened yet?

[peaches5]

You’re not hearing much out of Boston so it seems like Vancouver is really the interested party here 

[theo5789]

6 minutes ago, Maketherightmove said:

That's the thing about running a business. It's not an emotional thing (or shouldn't be). They're forecasting out their next 5 years, and clearly seeing that OEL is an anchor on the team from a cash flow perspective, especially given their cash issues. Keeping him likely means that they won't be able to do what they want moving forward. 

 

You're thinking about this from a pure hockey perspective, but this has very very little to do with hockey. It's all business. Hockey just happens to be their product, and the impact of not having to pay OEL $50+ million is probably far more beneficial to their business than the impact not having him will have on ticket sales, etc. 

So then why would they be taking on cap dumps from us when Boston could easily acquire him without giving anything back at all? Strictly business would suggest that if we give back any cap dump at all, then we are out of the running already. The business decision has to include that the team is somewhat successful as well. Ownership clearly signed off on these deals, so they knew what they were getting into. Covid messed with that. They need to correct the short term problems, but ownership clearly had decided they were willing to spend to try and win. Suddenly it's all about freeing up money long term (as they wouldn't save as much short term if we are giving useless salary back) and crippling the team in the process? Doesn't add up.

[Nucker 67]

Could be why it's taking a while, Benning turning the screws, trying to get the best deal possible for VAN

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by NUCKER67

[86Viking]

Edler will be 35 years old next year at a 6m cap hit in the year 2021

OEL will be 35when his 8.25m cap hit is up in year 2027

 

Over 7 years and with the cap going up in 2-3 years time I think the 6m that Edler has as a cap hit now will equate to OEL at age 35 and his cap hit at 8m roughly. I don't think OEL is the right choice to give a big package up for but for a lesser deal due to the situation we should entertain the idea.

 

OEL has 7 season with 10 or more goals scored, 9 this year in a shortened season...this player can produce points and that is with Arizona.

Edler had 3 seasons with 10 or more goals scored.

 

OEL should play WITH QH on PP1

 

#1 unit: EP JT Boeser

QH OEL

 

Nothing wrong with having 2 D on the PP imo, can go to a 4F group at times but this helps spread out some offense onto the 2nd PP unit.

 

[RowdyCanuck]

1 hour ago, debluvscanucks said:

 

So that's 4 of his 7 year contract.  Which is sort of my point here....

Yes but with edler off the books next year doesn't he make around 7?

and iirc OEL skating has always been a strength and I haven't heard anyone knock his hockey IQ.....if I'm a betting man I'm taking the gamble and if we win a cup within the next couple years then it's a small price to pay

[aGENT]

Just now, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Fair enough. Cap wise they seem better on the surface but as I reliped to Oldnews they have HUGE areas to fill given Krejci/Rask expiring next year then McAvoy extension around the corner. They asset wise who's got better pieces to move, us or Boston? Id think us but I guess either could get it done.

They're just a better fit 'on paper' than we are. Whether they have the real life interest to do so is the mystery. But if they do, they're simply better positioned. That doesn't mean they don't have issues to work on over the next several years as well, they're just better positioned than we are.

[Maketherightmove]

5 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

So then why would they be taking on cap dumps from us when Boston could easily acquire him without giving anything back at all? Strictly business would suggest that if we give back any cap dump at all, then we are out of the running already. The business decision has to include that the team is somewhat successful as well. Ownership clearly signed off on these deals, so they knew what they were getting into. Covid messed with that. They need to correct the short term problems, but ownership clearly had decided they were willing to spend to try and win. Suddenly it's all about freeing up money long term (as they wouldn't save as much short term if we are giving useless salary back) and crippling the team in the process? Doesn't add up.

The reality of the matter is we have absolutely no idea what Boston or Vancouver have offered. What I can assure you is that whatever the Coyotes decide to do, that will be what they feel is the best move for them, from a business standpoint, moving forward. 

 

To say something doesn't add up, when you/we/anyone not directly involved don't know the actual details is just pure silliness. 

[RowdyCanuck]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Because if we trade for OEL, Hughes likely moves to the right and eventually it would be nice to have OEL, Juolevi, Rathbone as our left D depth.

Yes but it's easier to replace a left handed D threw the draft wouldn't you say Or free agent looking for a ring?

and it's one or the other I don't think they would move them both...

[oldnews]

4 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Fair enough. Cap wise they seem better on the surface but as I reliped to Oldnews they have HUGE areas to fill given Krejci/Rask expiring next year then McAvoy extension around the corner. They asset wise who's got better pieces to move, us or Boston? Id think us but I guess either could get it done.

If Krejci, returns, for example, he won't be costing them 7.5 million to re-up.   That's more cap to spend, either way - his expiration is positive for them.

And if they need to 'replace' him again, they have a relatively healthy amount of cap with which to do so, in a deflated, buyer's market.

 

The assets you have to spend don't necessarily dictate market value - they might give you an edge in one sense, of offering a particularly attractive principal, but if the assumption is that it will take one mere asset, ie Juolevi, and at the same time, have the ability to throw in a cap dump, does that edge really apply?   Would Boston only have to throw in a second asset in addition to Vaakanainen (ie a 1st, and perhaps take a Goligoski as well?) - what they have to offer is not that relatively poor imo, at least not at the point of the 1st few assets (the Canucks may have a handful of higher end assets, but surely they're not all in play nor should they be).... what direction Boston is looking though - whether to the longer term future or the nearer/present, I don't know....that's probably the wild card here. 

And let's hypothetically say that Boston decides to look to the longer term future and isn't seriously entertaining acquiring Ekman-larsson....do the Yotes rush to make this deal and accept a lowball - or do they take a bit more time to try to sell alternative assets, holding out on more futures?  Again, I'll be shocked if this doesn't require at least a pair of futures...so I won't be expecting a deal with one Juolevi and a  cap dump to be completed by the time I pop back out of the bushes...

[oldnews]

13 minutes ago, peaches5 said:

You’re not hearing much out of Boston so it seems like Vancouver is really the interested party here 

haven't looked - interesting point - if you have been  and there's radio silence in Boston... is that the case?

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[Junkyard Dog]

One thing to consider is that there aren't many opportunities to get a player like OEL for 60 cents to the dollar.

 

Perhaps this and Dillion is a sign for things to come and UFAs to want to come here, even at a bargain. 

 

16 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

Edler will be 35 years old next year at a 6m cap hit in the year 2021

OEL will be 35when his 8.25m cap hit is up in year 2027

 

Over 7 years and with the cap going up in 2-3 years time I think the 6m that Edler has as a cap hit now will equate to OEL at age 35 and his cap hit at 8m roughly. I don't think OEL is the right choice to give a big package up for but for a lesser deal due to the situation we should entertain the idea.

 

OEL has 7 season with 10 or more goals scored, 9 this year in a shortened season...this player can produce points and that is with Arizona.

Edler had 3 seasons with 10 or more goals scored.

 

OEL should play WITH QH on PP1

 

#1 unit: EP JT Boeser

QH OEL

 

Nothing wrong with having 2 D on the PP imo, can go to a 4F group at times but this helps spread out some offense onto the 2nd PP unit.

 

The #1 PP usually runs with 1 RH shot anyways. Need better forwards on the 2nd unit and Horvat would help them gain possession off the draw.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Junkyard Dog

[theo5789]

8 minutes ago, Maketherightmove said:

The reality of the matter is we have absolutely no idea what Boston or Vancouver have offered. What I can assure you is that whatever the Coyotes decide to do, that will be what they feel is the best move for them, from a business standpoint, moving forward. 

 

To say something doesn't add up, when you/we/anyone not directly involved don't know the actual details is just pure silliness. 

But logically, if we are looking at strictly from a business standpoint, returning money and cap would be a poor decision. Boston has the cap space and they have the ownership with money. They don't have any "bad" contracts that they need to unload to make it work for them. And like I said, ownership signed off on his contract. It was never a concern when they did sign him, so the fact is that covid has affected them. They need short term help. The 40 million or so after the next couple of years that they owe is not a primary concern. They are concerned about keeping the franchise afloat now, so whichever deal that takes off as much money from them as possible is the best deal for them and Boston can offer that.

[DrJockitch]

Unless they are taking a lot of cap problems back or retaining, why.

8.25X7 with some front loaded money might get AP with a flat cap.

With this and Dillon, what are we playing 6 left D and one right.

I doubt there is any serious interest but Benning's job is to explore everything.

[Ghost of Sacrilage]

Only way I take on this contract, is if its part of a larger contract with something else coming back from Phoenix as well to sole another need.

We dont HAVE to go after OEL. But he improves the team for the next 4 ish years before potential decline. Adding another piece to compliment our bottom 6 and a good price allowing us to move off of sutter beagle etc will make me interested. Otherwise no.