2021 NHL Entry Draft

[Nucker 67]

If the Canucks draft Guenther, they'll still have real issues at C. There's no depth. I hope they draft a C or D with the #9, or trade it for an extra pick and a player to help them now

[Alflives]

11 minutes ago, brbetts542 said:

This is not a theory. It’s widely known in the scouting industry and is common sense, in my opinion....If it helps, try thinking about it more along the lines of mining value from draft eligible players that aren’t quite as developed and have, on average, been a whole 6 months behind in age compared to their peers.
 

Or just read outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  

What are your thoughts on guys who mature physically earlier than their peers?  Like McTavish has a full bear, right?  Maybe he was a man already, and dominating against mostly guys who are still boys?  Your theory is kind of the same, no?  At age 17/18 (draft year for most guys) it’s an advantage to be more physically developed.  And that advantage is more prevalent in the earlier birthdays.  There will be outliers, of course.  That’s why I wonder about McTavish.  Is he already a man, and so we aren’t going to see a lot of improvement in his game that would normally occur in guys who still have a lot of physical development left?  

[HighOnHockey]

26 minutes ago, brbetts542 said:

This is not a theory. It’s widely known in the scouting industry and is common sense, in my opinion....If it helps, try thinking about it more along the lines of mining value from draft eligible players that aren’t quite as developed and have, on average, been a whole 6 months behind in age compared to their peers.
 

Or just read outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  

Wait, what? You just seem to be making the argument that there is more room for development for summer birthday players at the time they are drafted. Everyone knows that the youngest players at the draft on average have more room for improvement. This doesn't logically entail TGoku's claim that most of the best players are born in that date range. In fact, I looked up the synopsis to the book you mentioned, and it seems to claim exactly the opposite, that "a disproportionate number of elite Canadian hockey players are born in the earlier months of the calendar year."

Edited June 27, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[Bertuzzipunch]

8 minutes ago, Alflives said:

What are your thoughts on guys who mature physically earlier than their peers?  Like McTavish has a full bear, right?  Maybe he was a man already, and dominating against mostly guys who are still boys?  Your theory is kind of the same, no?  At age 17/18 (draft year for most guys) it’s an advantage to be more physically developed.  And that advantage is more prevalent in the earlier birthdays.  There will be outliers, of course.  That’s why I wonder about McTavish.  Is he already a man, and so we aren’t going to see a lot of improvement in his game that would normally occur in guys who still have a lot of physical development left?  

McTavish has a full bear? I want a full bear now

[Googlie]

On a totally unrelated topic (didn't want to start a thread in case it amounted to nothing) but has Bieksa been disciplined by HNIC?  He hasn't appeared on the last 3 panels, and last time he was on he had Ron McClean rolling his eyes and showing his "pained face" on a somewhat sexist comment he made to Cassie.  Couldn't find anything on Google, but strange that Ron didn't even comment on his absence.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Googlie said:

On a totally unrelated topic (didn't want to start a thread in case it amounted to nothing) but has Bieksa been disciplined by HNIC?  He hasn't appeared on the last 3 panels, and last time he was on he had Ron McClean rolling his eyes and showing his "pained face" on a somewhat sexist comment he made to Cassie.  Couldn't find anything on Google, but strange that Ron didn't even comment on his absence.

What did Kevin say to Cassie that was sexist?  

[Nucker 67]

If MTL (Price) wins the Cup. Does Wallstedt go Top 5?

 

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by NUCKER67

[Beary Sweet]

I'm curious if we go with a kid like Raty at our pick. He's had a slow start this season playing in the Finnish league he was projected to be a top 5 pick last season before the year he had. Sure, he hasn't been clicking but he's a center who I believe can play the wing as well if needed. But, he still has the potential to be the best player in the draft. There's risk involved but sometimes you have to take one in order to grab the best player in the draft. Look at Podz for instance with the last 1st rounder we had and used. Should've been a top 5 pick but because he still had a contract with his Russian team, teams were afraid to take him. Now, he's looking like a star the way he's been able to play when it matters most when he was with SKA. Anywho, this is a wide open draft and hopefully we grab another stud

[HockeyHarry]

1 hour ago, Googlie said:

On a totally unrelated topic (didn't want to start a thread in case it amounted to nothing) but has Bieksa been disciplined by HNIC?  He hasn't appeared on the last 3 panels, and last time he was on he had Ron McClean rolling his eyes and showing his "pained face" on a somewhat sexist comment he made to Cassie.  Couldn't find anything on Google, but strange that Ron didn't even comment on his absence.

I think HNIC just has a rotation of panelists each getting a small break. 
Ron McClean is the only full time regular.

kelly Hrudey is great when hes rotated off, you don’t really miss him. Only BX you notice when hes not there cuz hes the biggest personality.

Side note: I think Ron McClean has alittle man crush for BIeksa. 

[HockeyHarry]

Can officially confirm

 

Lake and Ocean water IS warm enough for swimming and other water related activities. Floating on tube at your closest water spot can now be done officially for a full day event without fear of water being to cold causing male body part shrinkage. 

[flickyoursedin]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

If MTL (Price) wins the Cup. Does Wallstedt go Top 5?

 

 

I think this as well. I can see Yzerman going with the goalie at 6.

[MeanSeanBean]

37 minutes ago, Beary Sweet said:

I'm curious if we go with a kid like Raty at our pick. He's had a slow start this season playing in the Finnish league he was projected to be a top 5 pick last season before the year he had. Sure, he hasn't been clicking but he's a center who I believe can play the wing as well if needed. But, he still has the potential to be the best player in the draft. There's risk involved but sometimes you have to take one in order to grab the best player in the draft. Look at Podz for instance with the last 1st rounder we had and used. Should've been a top 5 pick but because he still had a contract with his Russian team, teams were afraid to take him. Now, he's looking like a star the way he's been able to play when it matters most when he was with SKA. Anywho, this is a wide open draft and hopefully we grab another stud

I highly doubt Raty goes in the top 10. If we picked him at 9 I wouldn't be pleased. I think he is a talented player, but there are much better options at 9, at least in my opinion.

[TGokou]

10 hours ago, Marv-the-wet-bandit said:

Even if Johnson is slightly older then his draft class he was still younger then those players when they had their BCHL and first NCAA seasons

Yes you are correct. In that case I could make some relevance for him going slightly higher than where they were drafted. That's why I had him going from 7-12 range. Of course there will always be other factors which I have not considered and that's where scouting would come in. My line of thinking can only place their potential based on their statistics. Most players don't deviate very far from there. However its the intangibles such as heart, internal motivation and commitment to fitness etc. that will really set a player apart. Does Johnson have more of this than say Tyson Jost or an Alex Newhook? That is not my specialty.

[TGokou]

3 hours ago, Alflives said:

What are your thoughts on guys who mature physically earlier than their peers?  Like McTavish has a full bear, right?  Maybe he was a man already, and dominating against mostly guys who are still boys?  Your theory is kind of the same, no?  At age 17/18 (draft year for most guys) it’s an advantage to be more physically developed.  And that advantage is more prevalent in the earlier birthdays.  There will be outliers, of course.  That’s why I wonder about McTavish.  Is he already a man, and so we aren’t going to see a lot of improvement in his game that would normally occur in guys who still have a lot of physical development left?  

For sure this is one of the main reasons why late birthdays have a disadvantage against their early birthday peers. I would be particularly wary of drafting a big player that has a early birthday as that means they have the size discrepancy and the age difference working for them which will be less prevalent going forward. Usually these players are drafted in the top 10 as they've proven more but I always find it more on the risky size unless the discrepancy between the players are so large it cant be overcome by just the early-late birthday.

[DeNiro]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

If MTL (Price) wins the Cup. Does Wallstedt go Top 5?

 

 

Vasilevskiy is pretty good too.

 

Would easily go top 5 in a redraft.

 

 

[Googlie]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

What did Kevin say to Cassie that was sexist?  

I didn't see the segment, but a golfing buddy mentioned it - was the piece where he commented on her black helmet worn from her Olympic or Worlds win.  She was apparently nonplussed, and Ron did his disapproval thing.  He (my buddy) couldn't remember the exact words as he was multitasking, but looked up as Ron pulled a face.  Bieksa hasn't been on since (3 games) and had been pretty much a mainstay prior to that.  Maybe nothing to it, but just seemed odd. 

[Googlie]

If Lysell has an entitlement/attitude problem,  what better team than the Canucks could there be? 2 revered Swedes in junior management, a superstar who's Swedish, the hardest working player, also Swedish, and (if brought back), the Patriarchal Edler.  None would stand for any guff.  And the kid is a sniper!! See:

 

 

[DeNiro]

14 minutes ago, Googlie said:

If Lysell has an entitlement/attitude problem,  what better team than the Canucks could there be? 2 revered Swedes in junior management, a superstar who's Swedish, the hardest working player, also Swedish, and (if brought back), the Patriarchal Edler.  None would stand for any guff.  And the kid is a sniper!! See:

 

 

If a player isn’t coachable forget about it.

 

They never make it.

[TGokou]

6 hours ago, ShawnAntoski said:

Moving forward - I will be borrowing your theory when watching the draft.  

 

Have you only applied this theory on defenceman and how did you discover it ?

I apply this theory to both forwards and defensemen. I have just noticed a more consistent trend within defensemen. I typically bias drafting a forward with the high 1st round pick because I find there is a higher bust/2nd pairing potential with defenseman. With a late round 1st or 2nd round pick I typically bias towards drafting defensemen as there are many top pairing defensemen drafted in that range based on history. This is where I find it benefits if you skew towards the late birthdays as you can find gems in this area that were bypassed in the 1st round because they haven't yet shown the ability to defend at a high level. In case you were wondering I have compared many players and based on the early - late birthday stats I find the general statline is most players tend to improve 20-30% on their stats in that time frame. In other words let's say a player born in July has 40 pts in any given league. I would multiply that by 1.25x to give a comparable to a player born in October-December.

 

Full disclosure, I have often missed some really good players in my draft ranking because I rank the early birthdays too low. This is why Adam Gaudette and Tyler Madden never would've shown up on my radar. Here are some examples of who I would have drafted based on my criteria.

 

2014 Nikolaj Ehlers

2015 I did not have a pick this year (don't remember why)

2016 Matthew Tkachuk

2017 Elias Pettersson (Note : Pettersson was an early birthday but his Allvenskan stats were too good to ignore) - Gabe Vilardi was also very high based on my criteria but the injuries scared me off

2018 - Noah Dobson - Dobson's birthday falls in January so I don't deduct him or give him an advantage. Right now Quinn Hughes looks like the better choice although that could still change as he's looked really good with the Islanders.

2019 - I believe I had forgotten that Podkolzin was available and really wanted Caufield. Podkolzin is a June birthday but his stats scared me off as I find it very difficult to run stats if there are no stats to work off of. This is where my analytics can easily fall short. I would also argue it doesn't really help for this year either as the sample size is too small in most cases.

2019 - 2nd round - Nicholas Robertson was my #1 choice here because he was literally 4 days away from being 2020 eligible. Early returns suggest Hoglander will be the better choice here.

2020 - No 1st or 2nd round pick so I had no interest in the draft

2021 - Like I said the stats are too small of a sample size to make a great selection here. Instead I will predict who might be the best player of the draft and I'm going to say Luke Hughes based on his production and birthday. I would also highly rate Pastujov based on the same criteria although I suspect he will be drafted in the teens.

 

Edit: I also have Corson Ceulemans rated highly because of this criteria.

Edited June 28, 2021 by TGokou

[Dazzle]

22 minutes ago, TGokou said:

I apply this theory to both forwards and defensemen. I have just noticed a more consistent trend within defensemen. I typically bias drafting a forward with the high 1st round pick because I find there is a higher bust/2nd pairing potential with defenseman. With a late round 1st or 2nd round pick I typically bias towards drafting defensemen as there are many top pairing defensemen drafted in that range based on history. This is where I find it benefits if you skew towards the late birthdays as you can find gems in this area that were bypassed in the 1st round because they haven't yet shown the ability to defend at a high level. In case you were wondering I have compared many players and based on the early - late birthday stats I find the general statline is most players tend to improve 20-30% on their stats in that time frame. In other words let's say a player born in July has 40 pts in any given league. I would multiply that by 1.25x to give a comparable to a player born in October-December.

 

Full disclosure, I have often missed some really good players in my draft ranking because I rank the early birthdays too low. This is why Adam Gaudette and Tyler Madden never would've shown up on my radar. Here are some examples of who I would have drafted based on my criteria.

 

2014 Nikolaj Ehlers

2015 I did not have a pick this year (don't remember why)

2016 Matthew Tkachuk

2017 Elias Pettersson (Note : Pettersson was an early birthday but his Allvenskan stats were too good to ignore) - Gabe Vilardi was also very high based on my criteria but the injuries scared me off

2018 - Noah Dobson - Dobson's birthday falls in January so I don't deduct him or give him an advantage. Right now Quinn Hughes looks like the better choice although that could still change as he's looked really good with the Islanders.

2019 - I believe I had forgotten that Podkolzin was available and really wanted Caufield. Podkolzin is a June birthday but his stats scared me off as I find it very difficult to run stats if there are no stats to work off of. This is where my analytics can easily fall short. I would also argue it doesn't really help for this year either as the sample size is too small in most cases.

2019 - 2nd round - Nicholas Robertson was my #1 choice here because he was literally 4 days away from being 2020 eligible. Early returns suggest Hoglander will be the better choice here.

2020 - No 1st or 2nd round pick so I had no interest in the draft

2021 - Like I said the stats are too small of a sample size to make a great selection here. Instead I will predict who might be the best player of the draft and I'm going to say Luke Hughes based on his production and birthday. I would also highly rate Pastujov based on the same criteria although I suspect he will be drafted in the teens.

 

Edit: I also have Corson Ceulemans rated highly because of this criteria.

Your rankings look cherry-picked. Let's see you produce a list of prospects eligible for 2021 RIGHT NOW and explain why each prospect belong there.

 

Dobson hasn't done nearly as much as Hughes has, and I find it laughable that you still think your opinion on Dobson "could still change". Also, next to no one had Pettersson at 5 in 2017. That's another example why I think you are cherrypicking with the benefit of a 20/20 hindsight.

 

Caufield is/was good, but his small size should've been a "concern". I am all for small players succeeding, but there's a reason why he slipped, much like how Podkolzin did too. It doesn't mean they're BAD players. Certainly, Caufield has blossomed for MTL, and I am very happy for him.