[Report] Connor Brown wants $4.8 million in Arbitration

[mll]

Just now, vinny_in_vancouver said:

I thought that once you go to arbitration that the team is no longer able to walk away from the ruling?

They can walk away if the ruling is more than 4.539M this year - if it's less they have to sign him to the award.  

[Dazzle]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

Yes, the folks just saying that his agent is asking for a crazy amount so it ends up in the middle just don't understand the process.  That isn't how it works at all, there are limits and rules around what evidence they can present.  The Agent can't just ask for million more than any reasonable comparables to artificially force the arb decision higher by "picking in the middle".

Like you did, the agent has to find reasonable comparables to justify their ask.  They pick the highest comparables possible.  The team does the same but picks the lowest comparables.

20 minutes a game is top line minutes and his production is solid.  He didn't fluff his point totals on the PP as he was mostly playing PK and 5 on 5.

His agent would be saying players like Labanc ($4.75), Krieder (his last contract @4.625 million), and Hertl ($5.625) are comparables (from an Athletic article).  That puts $4.8 million as totally reasonable, considering that the cap is higher than when those were signed, so $4.8 would represent a lower % of the total cap than the lower two numbers were at the time.

I have no idea what comparables Ottawa is using.  Maybe they are arguing that his recent year is just a blip because he was on a terrible team, and should mostly be thrown out.

https://www.liveabout.com/nhl-salary-arbitration-explained-2778981

Wait, what? Now I know you've misrepresented yourself in the past as some 6 figure contract negotiator for some hot shot labour company, but are you kidding me?

 

You wouldn't have a very strong case if you just threw a number and didn't have an argument to back it up. That wouldn't make you a very good negotiator.

 

Then again, I don't expect you to know anything about negotiating because you've shown, time and time again, that you don't know what you're talking about. You're most definitely not this '6 figure' contract negotiator. LOL.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

33 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Toffoli's projection vs what he ultimately got.  Their projections don't factor in that it's a pandemic and that the market has adjusted.  

 

Do you have any teams in mind who would want to pay Brown that kind of contract?  I don't see an obvious fit with most teams not having a lot of cap space.   

 

 

A little misleading to judge their whole model on Toffoli, a contract that was pretty much university considered a bargain that came in well under expected value.

 

Here are the other projections that you have to scroll by to get all the way down to Toffoli:

 

 

 

 

 

Pretty darn close, on average, if you ask me.

 

This is a model, not a crystal ball. GMs and agents ultimately decide the deals, and inevitably, there will be overpays and underpays. And sometimes, the model won’t account for certain aspects of a player’s value, or conditions specific to them, or their team. But for the most part (and especially on aggregate), the model’s predictions tend to be very close to what we eventually see awarded in the contracts. There will be outliers, of course (like Toffoli), but just as often, they’re nearly bang on (like Graves—they predicted 3.2M and he got 3.16).

 

I mean, if the model was perfect, and 100% accurate 100% of the time, we could just eliminate GMs, agents, and negotiations all together, and just let a computer write up all player contracts.

 

[Nuxfanabroad]

JaketheDullard, BroLouiE & OJ

 

Connor Brown, Colin White & Jaros

 

Let's do it! :^)

[kenhodgejr]

I would be open to trade Virtanen to Ottawa for Brown. Maybe even add a bit if we have to 

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Brown 

Roussel Hawryluk Gaudette 

Motte Beagle MacEwan 

[86Viking]

Arbitration this year is interesting, the players are younger vs UFA's but you can probably get a cheaper player in FA vs what an arbitrator might award someone

[NorthWestNuck]

1 hour ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

JaketheDullard, BroLouiE & OJ

 

Connor Brown, Colin White & Jaros

 

Let's do it! :^)

So you want Brown and White to play for Green?

[Nuxfanabroad]

2 minutes ago, NorthWestNuck said:

So you want Brown and White to play for Green?

Yeah, we send TWO top-6's!!! & bubbling, immovable nuclear waste

 

for colour, throwin shade & random junk.

[mll]

2 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

A little misleading to judge their whole model on Toffoli, a contract that was pretty much university considered a bargain that came in well under expected value.

 

Here are the other projections that you have to scroll by to get all the way down to Toffoli:

 

 

 

Toffoli's agent Pat Brisson was on a Montreal talk show and said they had some 8-10 teams interested in him.  Did he really take a bargain or was it the best offer he got out of all those teams interested in him.

 

Several players on that list that have filed for arbitration.  Kekalainen said he gave Domi that contract because he figured that's what he'd get in arbitration.  Arbitration doesn't allow to take into account the financial condition of the league or the team.  Arbitration is also 2 years at most and teams wanted to retain their players.  

 

I am not convinced the model works as well for middle of the lineup UFAs (or close to be) vs elite players à la Pietrangelo or young RFAs with upside. I think middle of the lineup UFA players are the ones that are being affected the most with the drop in revenue.  That's where I'd peg Brown on the open market.  I am not sure he is a key player for the Senators going forward.  Would he be for another team? 

 

If Brown gets to walk as UFA which team do you think will want and can sign Brown at their projection?

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by mll

[oldnews]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

I would also add that I would take Brown over Virtanen as a fit for our team.

 

He is really good defensively and would be a much better fit on the Horvat line.

 

Brown at $4 million x 2 years compared with say Virtanen at $2.75 x 2 (if the reports of a Pre-arb deal being done are true)

 

In real dollars Eriksson + Virtanen would be around $11 million over two years vs. $10 million for Brown + a $1 million player over the same timeframe.

 

In that context, what sweetener would it take Ottawa to make that deal?  Probably still a protected 1st round pick?  Boy if we could find a way to give them something like our (protected)1st, Rafferty, Virtanen, and Sutter 50% retained for Brown and Tierney back?  That would be an effective use of our cap space.  We would only really be short a solid 3rd pairing D to have a really good lineup. 

He's an interesting player to spitball acquiring imo - particularly if he finds the Sens offer a bit 'offputting' lol.

 

I would go a similar but slightly different way about an offer including Brown.

 

First - the reason I would want to add him (aside from my assessment of him earlier in this thread which I think reflects positively on his production in context, his versatility, etc - but the particular reason I would target him would be due to the kind of fit he could provide on Horvat's line.  I think he's actually a better fit than Toffoli = Horvat's line fills a dual purpose for Green that kind of gravitates according to the health and needs of the team at any given time, weighted around both matchup and secondary scoring... Horvat on any given night can find himself playing shutdown against an opposition top line, or as the bottom six is able to provide, an 'opportune' scoring 2nd line.  In the latter it can tend to depend on the health and shutdown effectiveness of Sutter and Beagle lines...when the 3rd is a (sheltered) Gaudette line, the conditions for Horvat's line change considerably in general.  

 

So - Brown - who is a leading 5 on 5 scorer for the Sens - but also plays their hardest minutes - and is their primary penalty killer - is somewhat cut out of an ideal mold - that should fit exceptionally well with Horvat - and be able to complement his own game in dual ways.   Miller was/is ideal for EP imo because he enabled EP to move to wing, avoid the center's defensive role in his own zone, take advantage of a very high faceoff % with EP and his line starting the play with the puck at a high rate, also able to provide the heaviness and play in the hard areas, forecheck - such a good complement at this stage for EP.  

Brown might represent a really good naturally fitting - perhaps even better than Pearson - as a winger for Horvat....the three of them, in spite of not having Toffoli's ability to finish, might still make a better unit than with Toffoli....And unlike re-signing Toffoli, the Canucks may be able to move cap in the process of adding Brown.

 

Where I'd want to go with it - is not a Brown vs Virtanen option, but Brown on the 2nd line, with Virtanen remaining on the 3rd.  I would look to move a winger as opposed to Sutter - and I'd look to add another player out of the 'Hawryluk' mold to the deal...The Sens also still need (at least) another defenseman imo...

 

 

To Van:

Connor Brown 3.5

Nick Paul 1.35 - gives us another (good target) potential LHC that could become a bottom six center here.

4.85 cap

 

To Ottawa

Gaudette  .95

Roussel  3.0

Benn 2.0

sweetener (aggressive enough to make it happen, within  of course 'reasonable' limits)

5.95 cap

 

EP Miller Boeser

Pearson Horvat Brown

Paul/Leivo Sutter Virtanen

Motte Beagle MacEwen./Hawryluk

(Ferland?)

 

 

The million they spent to move in Benn...towards a deflated Hainsey lol - and we are the Senators West...with Brown, Hawryluk, Paul and Hainsey...

Edler Schmidt

Hughes Myers

Juolevi Hainsey

Fantenburg

 

[TNucks1]

kinda weird timing if he does want to leave ottawa, there finally starting too turn it around.

[JeremyCuddles]

Every arbitration case we hear about this. Subban asked for like 8.5mil during his arbitration case and Montreal said like 5.25mil. In Nashville Weber asked for 8.5 and Nashville countered with 4.75 or something. It's just the nature of arbitration. Also for Connor Brown that's not too unreasonable. 40+ point guy, 20 goal scorer. This may get him in that 3.5mil region, which like I said is pretty unreasonable for him. 

[Provost]

18 minutes ago, TNucks1 said:

kinda weird timing if he does want to leave ottawa, there finally starting too turn it around.

I don’t think that is true.  They have a ton of picks and prospects... but if they just sell off any players who get good enough to be paid, that isn’t going to help them get better.

 

There is verbally only “so good” you can be when always spending $20 million less on players than anyone else.

[wildcam]

21 hours ago, Provost said:

I would also add that I would take Brown over Virtanen as a fit for our team.

 

He is really good defensively and would be a much better fit on the Horvat line.

 

Brown at $4 million x 2 years compared with say Virtanen at $2.75 x 2 (if the reports of a Pre-arb deal being done are true)

 

In real dollars Eriksson + Virtanen would be around $11 million over two years vs. $10 million for Brown + a $1 million player over the same timeframe.

 

In that context, what sweetener would it take Ottawa to make that deal?  Probably still a protected 1st round pick?  Boy if we could find a way to give them something like our (protected)1st, Rafferty, Virtanen, and Sutter 50% retained for Brown and Tierney back?  That would be an effective use of our cap space.  We would only really be short a solid 3rd pairing D to have a really good lineup. 

Will not see Benning give up 1st round pic for this deal..Not happening...

Will continue on path Benning and group will keep 1st and 2nd round picks unless player is a game changer...Miller was exception and he was a fantastic fit with good contract 3 more years...

[Provost]

6 minutes ago, wildcam said:

Will not see Benning give up 1st round pic for this deal..Not happening...

Will continue on path Benning and group will keep 1st and 2nd round picks unless player is a game changer...Miller was exception and he was a fantastic fit with good contract 3 more years...

Well if that is the case, at least we will know it will be a high 1st rounder for the next couple years as the team gets buried due to 20+ million in badly used cap space.

[oldnews]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

Well if that is the case, at least we will know it will be a high 1st rounder for the next couple years as the team gets buried due to 20+ million in badly used cap space.

"We" don't "know" any such thing.

 

 

[aGENT]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

Well if that is the case, at least we will know it will be a high 1st rounder for the next couple years as the team gets buried due to 20+ million in badly used cap space.

Sorry, but that's assinine.

[Provost]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Sorry, but that's assinine.

You are probably right.  When we end up as the 8th worst team in the league, we will still lose the lottery and pick outside the top 10.... joys of being a Canucks fan.

[Dazzle]

34 minutes ago, Provost said:

You are probably right.  When we end up as the 8th worst team in the league, we will still lose the lottery and pick outside the top 10.... joys of being a Canucks fan.

So if you think the team's gonna do so bad, watch another team. Or better still, you can enjoy the full pain of being a Canucks fan and more by being a Sabres fan. Your comments there for that team are far more relevant.

 

I just don't understand the logic how the team is trending in the positive direction and ppl still talk about it like this team's missed 9 consecutive playoffs.

[-Vintage Canuck-]