[Discussion] Escalating market price for defencemen (Quinn Hughes)

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, EoH said:

Honestly signing a bridge deal would probably be in Hughs best interest after getting OEL.

 

OEL will probably take the majority of the harder match ups and free up time and space for Hughs to operate, thus he keeps improving his game, and accumulating points.

 

But same can be said in a contract negotiation after the bridge deal ends that he was sheltered etc.

 

 

 

 

He was sheltered this season too.   Edler and Myers took the toughest minutes, killed the penalties.   If your number one D isn't killing penalties it doesn't really fit the definition of number one D does it? 

 

There is plenty of time for QHs to get better at that part of the game  - mentioned Brian Campbell several times during the season - same size and could do it all.   Except QHs will always put up more points. 

[HighOnHockey]

14 hours ago, khay said:

Yeah but he's an RFA that can't be offersheeted unlike Jones and Werenski who were about to get on the open market.

 

In other words, he has very little leverage other than threatening to sit out the season.

 

But I don't see him as that type of player.

 

All JB has to do is to not make a lowball offer so as to insult him to not wanting to stay in Van long term. Just negotiate in good faith, point out that he doesn't have much leverage and get him signed at 5.5 on a bridge deal (i.e., Boeser deal) or 7ish on a long term deal.

 

 

I don't think much leverage is required in this situation. The market dictates he is worth at least 8 long term. Although if he is looking for more than Heiskanen, things start to get a little dicey.

[HighOnHockey]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

He was sheltered this season too.   Edler and Myers took the toughest minutes, killed the penalties.   If your number one D isn't killing penalties it doesn't really fit the definition of number one D does it? 

 

There is plenty of time for QHs to get better at that part of the game  - mentioned Brian Campbell several times during the season - same size and could do it all.   Except QHs will always put up more points. 

His Vollman profile is identical to Makar. There are a million different ways to construct a team. If you can find an elite two-way D who plays 26 minutes a night, 2 or 3+ each on PK and PP, beautiful. But those guys are really tough to come by. If you have an elite offensive defenseman you ave to pay him what he's worth and find other players to PK.

Edited July 31, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[.Naslund]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

Makar is an RFA and now the third highest paid D in the league.   Go back and look at multiple cup winner, and multiple Norris finalist, and finally winner Doughty was making (not the third most in the league) during his RFA, but an even better comp - EK during his RFA years.      Won two, and should have won three, plus a finalist.   Both these guys didn't have a Mckinnon powered offense too rack up points either, especially EK.   Yes he was a finalist in a short year.   9 x 6 though? Buys barely a UFA year so yes I think it's a bad deal.     Rantanen at 9.5 is also way too much for a second deal.   Just like Marners is.  So yes i do think Sakic has some Dubas in him.   Dubas has publicly stated he made a mistake with his RFAs.    This is supposed to be flat cap for four or five more seasons.  

Makar is making about 11% of the Avs cap, whereas Karlsson and Doughty were making roughly 10-10.8% of their teams cap when they signed those contracts. They're essentially making the same as Makar. Timed have changed, and players are a lot better younger nowadays. It is what it is. Why should a second contract kid take a steep discount when teams are handing out big time contract to aging vets who have less potential then them and may not even perform to a higher than them during the duration of their contracts?

 

Like does anyone actually think Jones or Hamilton are going to be better off than Makar over the duration of their contracts?

 

Regardless Hughes is a step below Makar, I don't see Hughes getting anywhere near 9

[IBatch]

14 minutes ago, .Naslund said:

Makar is making about 11% of the Avs cap, whereas Karlsson and Doughty were making roughly 10-10.8% of their teams cap when they signed those contracts. They're essentially making the same as Makar. Timed have changed, and players are a lot better younger nowadays. It is what it is. Why should a second contract kid take a steep discount when teams are handing out big time contract to aging vets who have less potential then them and may not even perform to a higher than them during the duration of their contracts?

 

Like does anyone actually think Jones or Hamilton are going to be better off than Makar over the duration of their contracts?

 

Regardless Hughes is a step below Makar, I don't see Hughes getting anywhere near 9

 Going to double check that math.  If your right then ok.  Get back to you, it certainly didn't seem that way back then. 

 

Edit: Doughty was 11% when he signed at a full 8 years. 

Edit:  EK was 9% ... 70.2 at 6.5  and look at the term.  So yes I say Makar is getting overpaid.  And no i doubt he's going to be as good as either of these guys were.   You have to do the math on the year they signed the deal.   

 

Edit:  And now it's flat cap!  Yes Makar got overpaid - by at least 1 million over 6 years.   I'm upset at this constant RFA bs getting more then they've actually earned.   It's stupid considering the UFAs still get paid too.   Pushes the middle class right out.   And no players aren't "better now at a young age" that's total BS.   They were just as good going back to the late 70's.

Edited July 31, 2021 by IBatch

[Ballisticsports.]

52 minutes ago, .Naslund said:

Makar is making about 11% of the Avs cap, whereas Karlsson and Doughty were making roughly 10-10.8% of their teams cap when they signed those contracts. They're essentially making the same as Makar. Timed have changed, and players are a lot better younger nowadays. It is what it is. Why should a second contract kid take a steep discount when teams are handing out big time contract to aging vets who have less potential then them and may not even perform to a higher than them during the duration of their contracts?

 

Like does anyone actually think Jones or Hamilton are going to be better off than Makar over the duration of their contracts?

 

Regardless Hughes is a step below Makar, I don't see Hughes getting anywhere near 9

That is why Owners bargained for RFA rights and be able to keep a player for years to sell

That player you are talking about will still be that aging vet making even more a a UFA 

It isn't like the steep discount you are talking about has them in line at a food bank

[appleboy]

Hughes will be as good as the team he plays on.

[IBatch]

19 minutes ago, appleboy said:

Hughes will be as good as the team he plays on.

You could say that for any player ... with Miller that must mean we have one heck of a team. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by IBatch

[IBatch]

32 minutes ago, ba;;isticsports said:

That is why Owners bargained for RFA rights and be able to keep a player for years to sell

That player you are talking about will still be that aging vet making even more a a UFA 

It isn't like the steep discount you are talking about has them in line at a food bank

The math is off.  Doughty was paid when the cap was still rising year after year.   Same with EK.   Makar's deal should have been based on at least two if not three years ago.   COL just shot themselves right in the foot.   Window is right now for maybe two years and after that ho hum right into purgatory.   Mckinnon will sign a over 10.  He's actually EARNED his pay day - just like Doughry, just like EK, just like Tavares.   It's absolutely silly how much RFAs are making these days.   

Edited July 31, 2021 by IBatch

[spook007]

What ever the outcome, it'll be interesting to see the reaction of the fan base, If they give QH 8+M and he continues to struggle defensively...

Canucks fans (We) are not known to go easy on players not living up to their contracts...

 

We all love to watch QH, but keeping the costs down, will maximise our chances to have a proper go over the next 3 years. 

 

I don't really understand the panic about these contracts neither. 

Benning has never lowballed his players, so if it turns sour, it will not be because Benning has lowballed them, but more likely because they and their agent has gotten greedy. Don't see neither thing happen.... They will both be signed to reasonable contracts.

[J.I.A.H.N]

2 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

I don't think much leverage is required in this situation. The market dictates he is worth at least 8 long term. Although if he is looking for more than Heiskanen, things start to get a little dicey.

I think you are comparing apples and oranges

 

Take a look at Tyson Barrie (48 pts +4) this last year vs Quinn Hughes (41 pts -24) and Krug to a lesser degree

 

Both of these players are very comparable to Hughes, in size and play

 

Barrie just signed a 3 years @ $4,500,000 per year and Krug signed a 7 year @ $6,500,000.

 

IMO, these guys are much more comparable to Hughes Current abilities and value

 

Hughes is a step down from Fox, Makar and Heiskanen and should be paid as such.............

 

The way for Quinn to counter that is with a 3 year bridge, where he is coming out of the Flat Cap era

 

This give Hughes 3 years to prove his over all value.

[Arrow 1983]

17 hours ago, grandmaster said:

Seems that with the recent defencemen signings, the market has exploded to ridiculous proportions (Seth Jones, Werenski, etc…)

 

I’m worried about Hughes chasing after every dollar he can get. There is something about him that makes me feel that he would be like this (more so than Petey). 

 

If this is the case, would any of you be open to trading him? I think it would be worth a consideration. He isn’t exactly a top 10 defenceman in the league and I feel he is going to want to be paid as one (he has great offensive skills but his defence needs work).

If I were to trade Hughes, I would demand a genuine top 4D and a pick/good defenceman prospect. 
 

I don’t feel easy signing Hughes to 8 or 9M per for the next 6-8 years.

Hughes IMO is getting a short term deal 2-3 years for 5-6 mill. EP will get signed first because he has negotiating rights what ever is left after EP and Dickenson is signed that's what Hughes will get. If Hughes doesn't like it he might have to sit for awhile. Just go to cap friendly and work the numbers. I believe this is the same reason EP won't sign a offer sheet if he takes to much Hughes will have to take far less. Yes people I know what Hughes agent said about looking at long terms for Hughes but that can't happen unless the cap hit is low. Simple Hughes contract is very much tied with EPs if EP takes a lot Hughes gets less. If EP takes 7 mill Hughes gets about the same. If EP takes more than 7 mill it comes from Hughes contract. Only other player that determines Hughes contract is how much Dickenson gets. Simply put Hubhes will sign after EP even maybe Dickenson as well

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, spook007 said:

What ever the outcome, it'll be interesting to see the reaction of the fan base, If they give QH 8+M and he continues to struggle defensively...

Canucks fans (We) are not known to go easy on players not living up to their contracts...

 

We all love to watch QH, but keeping the costs down, will maximise our chances to have a proper go over the next 3 years. 

 

I don't really understand the panic about these contracts neither. 

Benning has never lowballed his players, so if it turns sour, it will not be because Benning has lowballed them, but more likely because they and their agent has gotten greedy. Don't see neither thing happen.... They will both be signed to reasonable contracts.

That's also the sound of reason.   Good post Spook.   I'm probably worried more then i should be,  not a fan of rising RFA contracts anytime, especially under flat cap.    That said it seems like GMs just can't help themselves no matter what the times are like.   It's a lot better then the 90's early 2000's when they just skyrocketed the wages due to salary disclosure.    Every single NHL player since the early 90's should be thanking the NHLPA from back then - and sending Bert (Bettman is Ernie - you know sesame street) a sizeable portion of their pay cheque for that.   

Edited July 31, 2021 by IBatch

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, janisahockeynut said:

I think you are comparing apples and oranges

 

Take a look at Tyson Barrie (48 pts +4) this last year vs Quinn Hughes (41 pts -24) and Krug to a lesser degree

 

Both of these players are very comparable to Hughes, in size and play

 

Barrie just signed a 3 years @ $4,500,000 per year and Krug signed a 7 year @ $6,500,000.

 

IMO, these guys are much more comparable to Hughes Current abilities and value

 

Hughes is a step down from Fox, Makar and Heiskanen and should be paid as such.............

 

The way for Quinn to counter that is with a 3 year bridge, where he is coming out of the Flat Cap era

 

This give Hughes 3 years to prove his over all value.

Yep.   And Barrie and Krug are built like little tanks both of them.   QHs sitting on the couch with his bro's looks like a 15 year old.   Give the guy credit for not getting injured yet.   But he hasn't had to play 82 games plus another 26 or so yet either to win a cup has he and at this point i have a lot of doubts and so should JB.

Edited July 31, 2021 by IBatch

[J.I.A.H.N]

17 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Yep.   And Barrie and Krug are built like little tanks both of them.   QHs sitting on the couch with his bro's looks like a 15 year old.   Give the guy credit for not getting injured yet.   But he hasn't had to play 82 games plus another 26 or so yet either to win a cup has he and at this point i have a lot of doubts and so should JB.

Yes, and it is not like I do not love Quinn's talents..........incredible, but he has alot to learn.

[deus.ex.makina]

i'm ready for a 7Mx4 for Petey and 6Mx3 for Hughes.  

[nux_win]

It is crazy some of the contracts being dished out and all, but I'm not terribly worried.  I'm pretty sure that Jim has a plan and that Quin will want to sign back with us at a reasonable dollar amount.  I mean I don't have a crystal ball and anything could happen but I'm pretty sure that cooler heads will prevail and Hughes and Petey will sign and the team will all come together as per Jim's plan (whatever that is).  I'm not sure what else Jim has up his sleeve for this offseason but so far I think he's done an excellent job and so I trust him to complete the signings and ice a competitive team this year.  I can hardly wait.  Go Canucks Go!

[iceman64]

18 hours ago, IBatch said:

I'm also not comfortable paying QHs after two 2/3ish seasons 8-9...it's crazy nuts.  

if he was 2-3 inches taller and 20 pounds (with a mean streak) and a bit better of a D game he'd be worth that for sure and more but people need to chill, he'll be on a bridge deal, you can bet JB has already spoken to his agent already on it,  probably  had a brief conversation enough to say what would be offered (ish) and yes a bridge deal back loaded for 3 years I'd think, same as Petey I'm sure. Agents know what's going on and do what they think is best for the player but know the status of the team and it's cap as well, so I believe Jimbo when he says it won't be a problem getting the cap spent to the last penny when the puck drops next season.

Edited July 31, 2021 by iceman64

[Amebushi]

I’m shocked...this thread has several thought out posts, discussion about the original topic and...it makes sense!!  What is going on CDC???  Are we actually looking at a talented young player from an objective point of view?  Not declaring Hughes the greatest defenceman of all time or a complete bustaroo is just not like us. 
 

Seriously though, Hughes is an amazing talent and deserves to get well paid. How much depends on a few things. How long does he want for term, how does he expect to be played. For example the Makar deal is not a fair comparison. Makar plays in far more situations than Hughes and doesn’t need to have other big name defenceman take the harder minutes for him. JB brought in OEL to be our “#1 all situation defenceman.”  Hughes will be able to feast on weaker competition as a result which Makar really can’t. I expect to see a bridge so that he can prove that he is still improving his entire game and then get paid the big money when he has arbitration rights and better stats to back it up. We need his skill on the team but an albatross 8.5-10 million dollar deal will not allow us to keep the complimentary players we need around. 

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Yes, and it is not like I do not love Quinn's talents..........incredible, but he has alot to learn.

Pretty much how i feel.   I don't read too much into the thumbs up "that's a home run" draft day thing.   For sure it was a home run, and i wouldn't be at all surprised if like the Staal bro's, the oldest will end up the best either.   

 

However we do need to temper expectations.    He's not the only guy to score that many points as a D for us, and let's be real most are PP and a lot of assists including secondary ones, and doesn't have an elite point shot.   As a new generation PMD he's amazing.    And usually gets it quickly up ice and out of our zone.   I started counting zone exits and high risk chances against myself post covid and what's on paper looks worse then what the product is - maybe he's not great on the boards without the puck,  but with it he's a wizard.  9/10 times if it's on his stick it's out of the zone quickly.   When it's not on his stick it can be pretty ugly still though.     Maybe the coaching staff needs to make adjustments so when we are behind he doesn't get overworked.   

 

Anyways, i stand by my personal view that so far he's earned more then Werenski and McAvoy but not by much. 5.5-6 x 3 is about right with flat cap.   If he's that good he should be banking on himself like Subban did.