AHLs importance for a players development

[Timråfan]

I stumbled across Patrik Bacons equivalency model comparing leagues and rank them scoring wise.

 

https://towardsdatascience.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-nhl-equivalency-model-part-2-6f275a45e22

 

Here we see that AHL is much closer to Allsvenskan, second tier in Sweden than SHL.

So why is AHL regarded so high among fans in NA?

Isn’t it better to develop the players in a league that produce higher scoring players?

In my view the AHL isn’t any good developing talent if they can’t beat Allsvenskan easy in this category. 

 

[UKNuck96]

2 minutes ago, Timråfan said:

I stumbled across Patrik Bacons equivalency model comparing leagues and rank them scoring wise.

 

https://towardsdatascience.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-nhl-equivalency-model-part-2-6f275a45e22

 

Here we see that AHL is much closer to Allsvenskan, second tier in Sweden than SHL.

So why is AHL regarded so high among fans in NA?

Isn’t it better to develop the players in a league that produce higher scoring players?

In my view the AHL isn’t any good developing talent if they can’t beat Allsvenskan easy in this category. 

 

I think it’s because it’s used as a conditioning league to get players ready for the NHL. Quality wise other leagues are better but as a place to mould young players it’s pretty good and allows teams to keep a closer eye on the prospects.

 

 

That said I would like the NHL to work out deals with some European leagues similar to how the QMJHL deal works whereby European players will get sent down to a European league. Help maintain the integrity of those leagues and allow players to develop their skills in a more competitive environment. 
 

Would also be nice if NHL teams paid some compensation for the development work done in the European clubs prior to them being poached via a draft. 

[Fanuck]

There's a lot more to developing players than getting them to score at the minor league level.  That's why you hear coaches like Green/Cull constantly stress that for prospects it's more about the process than anything else. Looking at scoring as the only benchmark for players development is very myopic imo.

[DrJockitch]

By its nature the AHL is a more defensive league and that is probably a good thing. These kids come into the A as stars who often rarely played much D and were generally a step above the competition and so didn’t have to fight through much. 
Learning your way to fight through men playing in a solid d structure is key to adapting to NHL.

There is a culling that happens first though. The really high end players go straight to the NHL more and more these days.   This leaves you with AHL vets and second tier players trying to round out their games.

I will be curious to see how much actual benefit we get from having baby ‘Nucks in Abbotsford. 

[HighOnHockey]

The fact that he's using data going so far back is troublesome. I get that theoretically, the more data the better accuracy, but leagues are constantly changing. Yeah the Czech league was a powerhouse back in the early to mid 2000s, but has fallen off drastically. I'm not a big math guy, but I've been keeping my own rolling list of league rankings since 2014. I believe I have a good foundation and update it regularly as things change. It is based purely on league quality, not NHL equivalency - meaning the big differences are I look at players' transitions going both ways, and they don't have to end up in the NHL at some point. And like I said, I'm not a math or data guy, so I just eyeball it. Analytics are a great tool, but they can only do what they're designed for, which in Bacon's case is rate the average league quality over the past 15 years, not in 2021. 

 

My own rankings:

 

20 - NHL
18.5 - KHL
18 - SHL
17.25 - AHL
17 - SM-Liiga
16.75 - Swiss NL
16.5 - Czech Extraliga
16.25 - VHL (Russia2), DEL (Germany)
16 - HockeyAllsvenskan, ICEHL (Austria)
15.75 - Tipsport Extraliga (Slovakia)
15.5 - ECHL
15.25 - NCAA, Ligue Magnus (France), Metal Ligaen (Denmark), 
15 - Fjordkraft Ligaen (Norway), DEL2, Belarus
14.75 - Czech2, SL (Swiss2)
14.5 - EIHL (UK), Mestis (Finland2), Kazakhstan
14.25 - MHL, USports, VHL-B
14 - WHL, OHL, HockeyEttan (Sweden3), Latvia
13.75 - QMJHL, SuperElit, SPHL, Slovakia2
13.5 - USHL, U20 SM Sarja, AlpsHL, MSL
13.25 - BCHL, NCAA DIII, Denmark2, Belarus2
13 - NAHL, Latvia, Norway2
12.75 - AJHL, ACAC
12.5 - OJHL, CCHL, Poland, France2
12.25 - MJHL, SJHL
12 - GOJHL, QJAAAHL, NOJHL
11.75 - BeNe League
11.5 - VIJHL, ACHA
10 - USPHL Premier
9.75 - ACHA DII

 

As far as calculations, every difference of 2.5 in rating is a difference of x2. Meaning every increase of 0.25 in rating is a multiplier of 0.1. Mathematically, it is granite-rough, but it gives you a better idea of where leagues are at right now than a model with 10 and 15 year old noise in the data.

Edited August 7, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[King Heffy]

Teams get to control how their players develop in the A.  Being able to ensure that your prized prospect gets fed the type of minutes you want, against the type of competition you want has a ton of value.  The players also get to learn the parent club's system, so callups are able to slot into the lineup easier.  Bottom line is the European leagues prioritize winning, while the AHL prioritizes development in most cases.  This is why the Canucks bought their own AHL affiliate instead of continuing with the Wolves.

[JM_]

5 hours ago, Timråfan said:

I stumbled across Patrik Bacons equivalency model comparing leagues and rank them scoring wise.

 

https://towardsdatascience.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-nhl-equivalency-model-part-2-6f275a45e22

 

Here we see that AHL is much closer to Allsvenskan, second tier in Sweden than SHL.

So why is AHL regarded so high among fans in NA?

Isn’t it better to develop the players in a league that produce higher scoring players?

In my view the AHL isn’t any good developing talent if they can’t beat Allsvenskan easy in this category. 

 

I like the option of having different players in both systems. E.g., I don't know that Petey develops the same way in the AHL and the SHL. OTOH I think a guy like Klimovich could do very well in the AHL learning how to become an effective physical player, vs the KHL

 

 

[Dazzle]

4 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

The fact that he's using data going so far back is troublesome. I get that theoretically, the more data the better accuracy, but leagues are constantly changing. Yeah the Czech league was a powerhouse back in the early to mid 2000s, but has fallen off drastically. I'm not a big math guy, but I've been keeping my own rolling list of league rankings since 2014. I believe I have a good foundation and update it regularly as things change. It is based purely on league quality, not NHL equivalency - meaning the big differences are I look at players' transitions going both ways, and they don't have to end up in the NHL at some point. And like I said, I'm not a math or data guy, so I just eyeball it. Analytics are a great tool, but they can only do what they're designed for, which in Bacon's case is rate the average league quality over the past 15 years, not in 2021. 

 

My own rankings:

 

20 - NHL
18.5 - KHL
18 - SHL
17.25 - AHL
17 - SM-Liiga
16.75 - Swiss NL
16.5 - Czech Extraliga
16.25 - VHL (Russia2), DEL (Germany)
16 - HockeyAllsvenskan, ICEHL (Austria)
15.75 - Tipsport Extraliga (Slovakia)
15.5 - ECHL
15.25 - NCAA, Ligue Magnus (France), Metal Ligaen (Denmark), 
15 - Fjordkraft Ligaen (Norway), DEL2, Belarus
14.75 - Czech2, SL (Swiss2)
14.5 - EIHL (UK), Mestis (Finland2), Kazakhstan
14.25 - MHL, USports, VHL-B
14 - WHL, OHL, HockeyEttan (Sweden3), Latvia
13.75 - QMJHL, SuperElit, SPHL, Slovakia2
13.5 - USHL, U20 SM Sarja, AlpsHL, MSL
13.25 - BCHL, NCAA DIII, Denmark2, Belarus2
13 - NAHL, Latvia, Norway2
12.75 - AJHL, ACAC
12.5 - OJHL, CCHL, Poland, France2
12.25 - MJHL, SJHL
12 - GOJHL, QJAAAHL, NOJHL
11.75 - BeNe League
11.5 - VIJHL, ACHA
10 - USPHL Premier
9.75 - ACHA DII

 

As far as calculations, every difference of 2.5 in rating is a difference of x2. Meaning every increase of 0.25 in rating is a multiplier of 0.1. Mathematically, it is granite-rough, but it gives you a better idea of where leagues are at right now than a model with 10 and 15 year old noise in the data.

Wow, Belarus2, isn't that where Klimovich is right now?

Maybe the QMJHL will be a better place for him to be aklimatized AHL is quite a big reach for him - not that I'm doubting his abilities.

 

I also didn't realize how high of a ranking the ECHL is/was.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Dazzle

[Forsy]

I never thought it was about being next best league. Isn't the AHL best in filtering out players? Meaning that AHL success doesn't guarantee success in the NHL, but it seems that not being successful in the AHL would likely mean the player will struggle in the NHL. Maybe there are many exceptions that I just don't remember? Can someone research this: Players who were terrible in the AHL but ended up being pretty good, or even superstars?

[NewbieCanuckFan]

1 hour ago, Forsy said:

I never thought it was about being next best league. Isn't the AHL best in filtering out players? Meaning that AHL success doesn't guarantee success in the NHL, but it seems that not being successful in the AHL would likely mean the player will struggle in the NHL. Maybe there are many exceptions that I just don't remember? Can someone research this: Players who were terrible in the AHL but ended up being pretty good, or even superstars?

 

I think it's a fairly small list.  Offhand, only player I can think of is maybe Oscar Klefbom?

[HighOnHockey]

3 hours ago, Dazzle said:

Wow, Belarus2, isn't that where Klimovich is right now?

Maybe the QMJHL will be a better place for him to be aklimatized AHL is quite a big reach for him - not that I'm doubting his abilities.

 

I also didn't realize how high of a ranking the ECHL is/was.

 

 

Klimovich played in Belarus2 the year before this. He played in Belarus Vyshaya this year, which is even lower level, as it is a junior league. If you're wondering why he went down in level, it is because Belarus does a U20 National Team that plays in Belarus2. Seems that they didn't have it this year, presumably because of covid. He was also supposed to play Q this year but that didn't work out, so he was stuck in Belarus' junior league, which I don't have ranked, but would estimate is worse than any Canadian junior A league.

 

And yeah ECHL gets a bad rap for being a goon league, but it is still a feeder league for the AHL and NHL systems. I haven't done a deep dive on ECHL for a couple years now; perhaps as the NHL and subsequently AHL are expanding, they may be drawing top players from ECHL. But yeah it's somewhere in the same range of the top leagues for the second tier hockey countries like France, Norway, Belarus. Until pretty recently I had it ahead of EBEL/ICEHL, but ICEHL has been making a serious push the past few years

[Dazzle]

49 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

Klimovich played in Belarus2 the year before this. He played in Belarus Vyshaya this year, which is even lower level, as it is a junior league. If you're wondering why he went down in level, it is because Belarus does a U20 National Team that plays in Belarus2. Seems that they didn't have it this year, presumably because of covid. He was also supposed to play Q this year but that didn't work out, so he was stuck in Belarus' junior league, which I don't have ranked, but would estimate is worse than any Canadian junior A league.

 

And yeah ECHL gets a bad rap for being a goon league, but it is still a feeder league for the AHL and NHL systems. I haven't done a deep dive on ECHL for a couple years now; perhaps as the NHL and subsequently AHL are expanding, they may be drawing top players from ECHL. But yeah it's somewhere in the same range of the top leagues for the second tier hockey countries like France, Norway, Belarus. Until pretty recently I had it ahead of EBEL/ICEHL, but ICEHL has been making a serious push the past few years

Much appreciated for yet another awesome insight. The way you laid it out like that with the leagues makes it easier to understand where the leagues all stand. I recognize a lot of the leagues based on their name, but if you were to have me re-order them in the correct rankings again, I wouldn't be able to do it. LOL.

 

I just decided to look up ACHA D2 on a whim (it was the lowest ranked hockey league), and from a very outdated Reddit thread, it sounds like they're actually "pretty good" by one poster (which really means nothing because it's so arbitrary of an assessment). What makes the OHL so much better than this league? Is it a matter of reputation, based on how many players make the NHL? or is it something else?

 

Also, Latvia appears twice on 13 and 14. Do they have multiple leagues? I heard is projected by some people to go to the ECHL or something this season, probably for more playing time.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Dazzle

[HighOnHockey]

1 hour ago, Dazzle said:

Much appreciated for yet another awesome insight. The way you laid it out like that with the leagues makes it easier to understand where the leagues all stand. I recognize a lot of the leagues based on their name, but if you were to have me re-order them in the correct rankings again, I wouldn't be able to do it. LOL.

 

I just decided to look up ACHA D2 on a whim (it was the lowest ranked hockey league), and from a very outdated Reddit thread, it sounds like they're actually "pretty good" by one poster (which really means nothing because it's so arbitrary of an assessment). What makes the OHL so much better than this league? Is it a matter of reputation, based on how many players make the NHL? or is it something else?

 

Also, Latvia appears twice on 13 and 14. Do they have multiple leagues? I heard is projected by some people to go to the ECHL or something this season, probably for more playing time.

Lol whoops. Latvia is not supposed to appear twice, no. Not sure which one is correct; pretty sure it should be the 14, as Latvia is a fairly reputable hockey country that produces some NHL players on occasion.

 

But yeah, pretty good by what standard? That's just as low as I have gone so far. It used to be out of ten but once I started getting into lower levels I had to make room. But if you look at where ACHA DII gets their commits from: US high school, PJHL, KIJHL, which are junior B leagues.

 

The main method for comparing leagues is look at players who played in multiple leagues and compare how they produced. For the lower level of youth leagues you start getting into too many degrees of separation to make good comparisons, plus you're dealing with too much development from year to year, so you also look at where the leagues are sending players. BCHL gets at least 50 players into NCAA DI schools every year. AJHL and OJHL get around maybe 20-40 in to DI schools every year. 5-10 for MJHL and SJHL. Then the lower level junior leagues like NOJHL and GOJHL get very few players in DI schools, but then you start looking at how many did they get into USports and DIII, and beyond that, into ACHC DI, and so on down the list.

[Dazzle]

1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said:

Lol whoops. Latvia is not supposed to appear twice, no. Not sure which one is correct; pretty sure it should be the 14, as Latvia is a fairly reputable hockey country that produces some NHL players on occasion.

 

But yeah, pretty good by what standard? That's just as low as I have gone so far. It used to be out of ten but once I started getting into lower levels I had to make room. But if you look at where ACHA DII gets their commits from: US high school, PJHL, KIJHL, which are junior B leagues.

 

The main method for comparing leagues is look at players who played in multiple leagues and compare how they produced. For the lower level of youth leagues you start getting into too many degrees of separation to make good comparisons, plus you're dealing with too much development from year to year, so you also look at where the leagues are sending players. BCHL gets at least 50 players into NCAA DI schools every year. AJHL and OJHL get around maybe 20-40 in to DI schools every year. 5-10 for MJHL and SJHL. Then the lower level junior leagues like NOJHL and GOJHL get very few players in DI schools, but then you start looking at how many did they get into USports and DIII, and beyond that, into ACHC DI, and so on down the list.

Yeah, whoops, I omitted Silovs' name in my last paragraph. I heard he was going to the ECHL.

[UKNuck96]

3 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Lol whoops. Latvia is not supposed to appear twice, no. Not sure which one is correct; pretty sure it should be the 14, as Latvia is a fairly reputable hockey country that produces some NHL players on occasion.

 

But yeah, pretty good by what standard? That's just as low as I have gone so far. It used to be out of ten but once I started getting into lower levels I had to make room. But if you look at where ACHA DII gets their commits from: US high school, PJHL, KIJHL, which are junior B leagues.

 

The main method for comparing leagues is look at players who played in multiple leagues and compare how they produced. For the lower level of youth leagues you start getting into too many degrees of separation to make good comparisons, plus you're dealing with too much development from year to year, so you also look at where the leagues are sending players. BCHL gets at least 50 players into NCAA DI schools every year. AJHL and OJHL get around maybe 20-40 in to DI schools every year. 5-10 for MJHL and SJHL. Then the lower level junior leagues like NOJHL and GOJHL get very few players in DI schools, but then you start looking at how many did they get into USports and DIII, and beyond that, into ACHC DI, and so on down the list.

Latvia might actually be the lower one, not because it’s bad, but because it suffers top talent drain into the KHL and Dynamo Riga, and youth poaching by the MHL Riga team. 

[Timråfan]

17 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

The fact that he's using data going so far back is troublesome. I get that theoretically, the more data the better accuracy, but leagues are constantly changing. Yeah the Czech league was a powerhouse back in the early to mid 2000s, but has fallen off drastically. I'm not a big math guy, but I've been keeping my own rolling list of league rankings since 2014. I believe I have a good foundation and update it regularly as things change. It is based purely on league quality, not NHL equivalency - meaning the big differences are I look at players' transitions going both ways, and they don't have to end up in the NHL at some point. And like I said, I'm not a math or data guy, so I just eyeball it. Analytics are a great tool, but they can only do what they're designed for, which in Bacon's case is rate the average league quality over the past 15 years, not in 2021. 

 

My own rankings:

 

20 - NHL
18.5 - KHL
18 - SHL
17.25 - AHL
17 - SM-Liiga
16.75 - Swiss NL
16.5 - Czech Extraliga
16.25 - VHL (Russia2), DEL (Germany)
16 - HockeyAllsvenskan, ICEHL (Austria)
15.75 - Tipsport Extraliga (Slovakia)
15.5 - ECHL
15.25 - NCAA, Ligue Magnus (France), Metal Ligaen (Denmark), 
15 - Fjordkraft Ligaen (Norway), DEL2, Belarus
14.75 - Czech2, SL (Swiss2)
14.5 - EIHL (UK), Mestis (Finland2), Kazakhstan
14.25 - MHL, USports, VHL-B
14 - WHL, OHL, HockeyEttan (Sweden3), Latvia
13.75 - QMJHL, SuperElit, SPHL, Slovakia2
13.5 - USHL, U20 SM Sarja, AlpsHL, MSL
13.25 - BCHL, NCAA DIII, Denmark2, Belarus2
13 - NAHL, Latvia, Norway2
12.75 - AJHL, ACAC
12.5 - OJHL, CCHL, Poland, France2
12.25 - MJHL, SJHL
12 - GOJHL, QJAAAHL, NOJHL
11.75 - BeNe League
11.5 - VIJHL, ACHA
10 - USPHL Premier
9.75 - ACHA DII

 

As far as calculations, every difference of 2.5 in rating is a difference of x2. Meaning every increase of 0.25 in rating is a multiplier of 0.1. Mathematically, it is granite-rough, but it gives you a better idea of where leagues are at right now than a model with 10 and 15 year old noise in the data.

Have you looked deeper into how the players from AHL did in different leagues when the plague stopped AHL?

I know there where a lot of AHL in Hockeyallsvenskan but I have no idea how good they were. 

[HighOnHockey]

4 hours ago, Timråfan said:

Have you looked deeper into how the players from AHL did in different leagues when the plague stopped AHL?

I know there where a lot of AHL in Hockeyallsvenskan but I have no idea how good they were. 

Haven't done any serious work on this list since last summer. Yeah the "plague" as you call it, will scew everything everywhere. Much worse even than the lockout years. I think the numbers young prospects have been putting up in the AHL this year are inflated because the overall quality of the league is down because NHL teams were carrying what? 10 or 12 black aces? Youth was served in AHL this year.

 

On your original point, in my opinion AHL is the 4th best league in the world in recent years. Maybe there would be valid arguments to be made in favor of NLA and Liiga, but the point is it is it one of the strongest leagues in the world. It is where players go when they want to get to the NHL. Top players can often make more money in Europe than in AHL, but go to AHL because that's where you get a chance to play NHL games, and also it is the closest style of hockey to the NHL - many NHL teams implement the same defensive structures to their AHL teams.

[Alflives]

29 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

Haven't done any serious work on this list since last summer. Yeah the "plague" as you call it, will scew everything everywhere. Much worse even than the lockout years. I think the numbers young prospects have been putting up in the AHL this year are inflated because the overall quality of the league is down because NHL teams were carrying what? 10 or 12 black aces? Youth was served in AHL this year.

 

On your original point, in my opinion AHL is the 4th best league in the world in recent years. Maybe there would be valid arguments to be made in favor of NLA and Liiga, but the point is it is it one of the strongest leagues in the world. It is where players go when they want to get to the NHL. Top players can often make more money in Europe than in AHL, but go to AHL because that's where you get a chance to play NHL games, and also it is the closest style of hockey to the NHL - many NHL teams implement the same defensive structures to their AHL teams.

Don’t the vast majority of elite guys from Europe go from their league directly to the NHL?  They play their until they are ready for the NHL.  The elite guys from over here go to the NHL out of Junior or US college.  It’s pretty rare for an elite player to be in the AHL.  I think that’s the difference between the AHL and some Euro leagues.  The Euro league’s will have several elite young future NHL stars that the AHL will not.  But I think the AHL teams will have far deeper lineups.  

[HighOnHockey]

35 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Don’t the vast majority of elite guys from Europe go from their league directly to the NHL?  They play their until they are ready for the NHL.  The elite guys from over here go to the NHL out of Junior or US college.  It’s pretty rare for an elite player to be in the AHL.  I think that’s the difference between the AHL and some Euro leagues.  The Euro league’s will have several elite young future NHL stars that the AHL will not.  But I think the AHL teams will have far deeper lineups.  

You're being far too vague. The vast majority? What do you call elite? And which Euro leagues is the AHL deeper than? SHL or KHL? No. NL or Liiga? Yeah probably. There is something to what you say though.

[J-P]

As an example Brendan Gaunce was like 0.8 PPG or higher in the AHL and 0.6 PPG or so in the SHL in both regular season and playoffs (numbers from memory so not 100% correct).

 

This is of course totally without deployment context etc but still a reasonable comparison where he produced at top level in the AHL offensively and just below that in the SHL (while still being very good). 

 

I think it's hard in general to compare Euro leagues and AHL as there are so many differences in both play and priorities. I do think it's a clear trend though that top 6 forwards are generally ready earlier nowadays (the cap also factors in of course) and less players in that category - European or not - develop via the AHL.