Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to make the playoffs

[N4ZZY]

On 11/18/2021 at 11:56 PM, Shayster007 said:

regardless, both times he has traded a first he received highly effective players. I really don't think he will make a trade like you said. I wouldn't be shocked if we see him swing for a youngish top 4 RHD with a high pick though.

and that high pick being the 2022 1st? 

 

Because that'll be what it takes, and maybe more. 

 

[N4ZZY]

4 hours ago, Provost said:

Lots of centres in the top 10 picks at the draft.  Maybe we will be in a position to shift Petterson over to the wing in a couple years and not have to worry about having an extra centre on his line to help with face offs.

 

 

Would be curious to see if Petey plays better on the wing rather than as a centreman. Unless his FO's improve by drastic measures, I'm not sure he can be counted on in the middle. Miller's capable of playing C, but probably is better suited on the wing. Maybe Petey is the same where he performs better on the wing, and not have as much pressure on the dot? Because he's been miserable there this year so far, and I don't really see it improving by a lot as this season progresses. We don't really have anyone working with our players on that. 

 

[Provost]

35 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

Would be curious to see if Petey plays better on the wing rather than as a centreman. Unless his FO's improve by drastic measures, I'm not sure he can be counted on in the middle. Miller's capable of playing C, but probably is better suited on the wing. Maybe Petey is the same where he performs better on the wing, and not have as much pressure on the dot? Because he's been miserable there this year so far, and I don't really see it improving by a lot as this season progresses. We don't really have anyone working with our players on that. 

 

He won the scoring title in the SHL as a LW, so it would be worth a try if we had the lecture or another top C

[wallstreetamigo]

This team needs a true all around #1 center and a true #1 rhd. 
 

EP should be a winger IMO.

[N4ZZY]

53 minutes ago, Provost said:

He won the scoring title in the SHL as a LW, so it would be worth a try if we had the lecture or another top C

Guess that’s what this 2022 draft is for. Another top C. Maybe we can acquire another 1st for I dunno, say Miller? 

Could possibly get a top RHD, and a top C from one draft. 

 

[N4ZZY]

51 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

This team needs a true all around #1 center and a true #1 rhd. 
 

EP should be a winger IMO.

Yeah. Sigh. I mean, EP40 SHOULD be the #1 centre. 

 

A RHD has eluded this franchise forever…I don’t think we’ve ever had one. Like EVER. 

 

[MeanSeanBean]

9 hours ago, N4ZZY said:

and that high pick being the 2022 1st? 

 

Because that'll be what it takes, and maybe more. 

 

Well that's what I'm saying. The poster is as replying too was saying Benning would trade that pick for a 3rd liner. Historically Benning has gotten very good value out of first round picks if he trades then. I wouldn't be shocked if he made that move.

[Provost]

Updated odds:

MoneyPuck  5.8%
Sportclubstats 2.8%
Hockey Reference 5.8%
Power Rankings 9.3%

 

Odds when I started the thread below... all are going down and not up.

Nov 16th:
Moneypuck 8.1%
Sportsclubstats 9.9%
Hockey Reference 9.7%
Power Rankings 13.2%
The Athletic 6%

Edited November 22, 2021 by Provost

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 11/16/2021 at 9:29 AM, DSVII said:

I'm not putting it past Benning to trade our 1st away for the third year in a row to save his job just like he did in 2020. The 1st is written off in my head and will be a pleasant surprise if it's there by TDL

I doubt ownership will allow him to spend that pick.

 

It is ownership that has to decide now, if we should tank and do a 1-2 year rebuild.

Edited November 22, 2021 by MaxVerstappen33

[Provost]

On 11/16/2021 at 10:25 AM, Provost said:

A big part of the apathy is trying to figure out how we can even get out of this.

Assuming we don’t make a good playoff run this season (which the odds indicate is extremely unlikely), that gives us a single season to show we are a team on the upswing before we have to try to convince Miller and Horvat to re-sign or lose them for nothing as UFAs.  We have to somehow turn things around next season without any cap space to add any significant pieces.

 

I don’t see them wanting to sign a next contract for one of the worst teams in the league.  They will be at an age where they want a chance to win before they are too old.

 

Just picture our team without Miller and Horvat and no assets in return for them.  We have no prospects in the pipeline to take over from them.   No free agent is going to sign to a perennial loser without being vastly overpaid and handcuffing us. That means another full rebuild from scratch starting two years from now.

 

To improve our long term organizational health in a shorter timeframe that leaves the horrifying prospect of trading both those players before this deadline when their value will be at the highest because they won’t just be rentals.   Both would be highly sought after due to their playing styles for the playoffs and their reasonable cap hits.

Boeser is also likely most attractive as a trade asset right now before he gets a new deal… I am not even sure he is very attractive now even with a $7+ million ticket looming.
 

We would need to get top prospects and 1st round picks for each of them, and then maybe flip those 1st round picks at the draft for good NHL roster players that may be cap casualties.

 

None of that is going to happen because no one is ready to restart the whole process after an 8 year streak of futility.

 

What are the alternatives for us to get better?  Just keeping hoping that last year and this year are mirages and the same team will miraculously get way better?

I am glad I kicked off a bunch of trade tsk on these three players

 

I guess it was a compelling argument…

[Patel Bure]

On 11/16/2021 at 9:22 AM, Provost said:

This came fast this season.  It is 20% of the season in and the team has fallen pretty far out of the playoff picture.

7+ points out of a playoff spot counting games in hand.  Super depressing and I mostly stopped watching games this week, just recording them and peeking at the score partway through to see if it was worth watching or if I should go slam the car door on my hand a few times to have a more fun time for the evening.

The different models have already shown how far of an uphill climb it will be.  Unlike last year with only divisional play, there are a few more "outs" where teams outside the division can take points away from our competition... but it is looking really grim when you consider the pace the team would have to finish out the season to hit the 95-96 point range for the historic playoff bar.  84 points in 66 games is a tall order, we are talking  .640 hockey or a 105 point pace over a whole season.  Is there any sign at all our team is capable of that kind of run?  We could have a miraculous 10-0 stretch coming up and still have to win almost 60% of our games for the rest of the season after that to be at the fringe playoff bar.

Our chances from the different sites:

Moneypuck 8.1%
Sportsclubstats 9.9%
Hockey Reference 9.7%
Power Rankings 13.2%
The Athletic 6%

Flame away, just like last year when I posted the same thing about odds partway into the season and folks decided to throw feces around because math makes them mad.  The thing about math is it doesn't care how you feel.  It isn't impossible, it is just extremely unlikely. 

The context of this is that hopefully we have a regime change where we can start trading away some of the pieces on the team when other teams are trying to load up for playoff runs before the Olympic break.  Not just tinkering around the edges, but trading away big pieces to rejig the roster substantially. 

If we see Benning stick around and keep trading away futures to make this season look more respectable and try to save his job... that will be disastrous as he would be chasing unicorns and likely fail.

Of course, if you decide to start throwing insults again I might quote some of the posts from last year's thread that will make you look pretty dumb because things turned out just like the odds said they would... defying the odds is a saying because it is an exception and not a likelihood.

We are capped out and have some of of best value contracts expiring soon in Hoglander, Miller, and Horvat.  Who knows what we do with Boeser and if his trade value is drastically reduced with the qualifying offer he needs to get and his uneven performance.

 

@Provost - I do admit that the Canucks still have a LOT of work ahead of them, but do you mind informing the people as to what our odds of making the playoffs are at after tonight's win?...........7 of 8 mind you just incase you lost count.  

 

Surely, a Canucks fan like you would be more than happy to give us the good news with regards to our increased odds after this impressive winning streak right?   

 

I'd like to think that it's not all "doom and gloom" in your world, and that you don't only come here to report "statistics" and "probabilities" when things are low.  

 

We still have a lot of work to do but an update on our chances of making the playoffs would be highly appreciated.  

[N4ZZY]

10 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

@Provost - I do admit that the Canucks still have a LOT of work ahead of them, but do you mind informing the people as to what our odds of making the playoffs are at after tonight's win?...........7 of 8 mind you just incase you lost count.  

 

Surely, a Canucks fan like you would be more than happy to give us the good news with regards to our increased odds after this impressive winning streak right?   

 

I'd like to think that it's not all "doom and gloom" in your world, and that you don't only come here to report "statistics" and "probabilities" when things are low.  

 

We still have a lot of work to do but an update on our chances of making the playoffs would be highly appreciated.  

I don’t know the statistical figures, but I think it’s still pretty tough for the team to make the postseason. It’ll be close is what I think. The team looks like it’s making a run right now, but even with that, there’s so much ground to make up. We’ve played 30 games already, and have 3-4 games more played than teams above us in the standings. If those other teams lose those games in hand, then okay, the chances and odds obviously increase, but those teams aren’t going to go on 10-15 game losing streaks. 

 

But I ain’t going to say never either. Stranger things have happened. I mean, look at the Canucks so far. 2 weeks ago, this team was dead. Tonight, they look like world beaters. 

 

 

[DefCon1]

7 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

I don’t know the statistical figures, but I think it’s still pretty tough for the team to make the postseason. It’ll be close is what I think. The team looks like it’s making a run right now, but even with that, there’s so much ground to make up. We’ve played 30 games already, and have 3-4 games more played than teams above us in the standings. If those other teams lose those games in hand, then okay, the chances and odds obviously increase, but those teams aren’t going to go on 10-15 game losing streaks. 

 

But I ain’t going to say never either. Stranger things have happened. I mean, look at the Canucks so far. 2 weeks ago, this team was dead. Tonight, they look like world beaters. 

 

 

The way this team is playing, and the way LA, Oilers, Flames, Seattle has been playing lately, with 52 games to go, I dont see how you think its rough or hard to make it. We are 4 points behind the Oilers and Flames players have covid. Both could sink very fast. I think Canucks made a lot of ground in 2 weeks and if they with 3 or 4 more, they will pass Oilers too. Those game in hand must be won, if its a loss then there is no advantage. Also 52 games is a lot. St. Louis was last during christmas break before they went on a run. We are almost into the wild card position before christmas break.

Edited December 15, 2021 by DefCon1

[Patel Bure]

Just now, N4ZZY said:

I don’t know the statistical figures, but I think it’s still pretty tough for the team to make the postseason. It’ll be close is what I think. The team looks like it’s making a run right now, but even with that, there’s so much ground to make up. We’ve played 30 games already, and have 3-4 games more played than teams above us in the standings. If those other teams lose those games in hand, then okay, the chances and odds obviously increase, but those teams aren’t going to go on 10-15 game losing streaks. 

 

But I ain’t going to say never either. Stranger things have happened. I mean, look at the Canucks so far. 2 weeks ago, this team was dead. Tonight, they look like world beaters. 

 

 

Agreed but you said it best in your last sentence.  Two weeks ago, what would have been our "statistical probabilities" of winning 7 of our next 8 games?   

 

Although point wise, we are only 4 points away from being tied, we are likely 6-7 points out when you factor in points percentage.   

 

Our real enemy is Winnipeg.  Edmonton will continue to drop like a sack of $&!# imo while LA and San Jose are average teams at best.  It isn't 2012 or 2013 anymore.  

 

1) Let Anaheim, Calgary, and Vegas run away with the top 3 seeds

2) Let Nashville occupy the first wildcard spot

3) LA, San Jose, and Dallas will continue to be average (maybe Dallas picks up steam again).

4) Canucks chase and hound Winnipeg.

Still lots of work to be done but from a point percentage perspective, we aren't that far out.  

[Patel Bure]

Just now, DefCon1 said:

The way this team is playing, and the way LA, Oilers, Flames, Seattle has been playing lately, with 52 games to go, I dont see how you think its rough or hard to make it. We are 4 points behind the Oilers and Flames players have covid. Both could sink very fast. I think Canucks made a lot of ground in 2 weeks and if they with 3 or 4 more, they buypass Oilers too. Those game in hand must be won, if its a loss then there is no advantage. Also 52 games is a lot. St. Louis was last during christmas break before they went on a run. We are almost into the wild card position before christmas break.

If the Canucks take out San Jose in their next two meetings with them, we are basically back in the thick of things.

[N4ZZY]

2 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

Agreed but you said it best in your last sentence.  Two weeks ago, what would have been our "statistical probabilities" of winning 7 of our next 8 games?   

 

Although point wise, we are only 4 points away from being tied, we are likely 6-7 points out when you factor in points percentage.   

 

Our real enemy is Winnipeg.  Edmonton will continue to drop like a sack of $&!# imo while LA and San Jose are average teams at best.  It isn't 2012 or 2013 anymore.  

 

1) Let Anaheim, Calgary, and Vegas run away with the top 3 seeds

2) Let Nashville occupy the first wildcard spot

3) LA, San Jose, and Dallas will continue to be average (maybe Dallas picks up steam again).

4) Canucks chase and hound Winnipeg.

Still lots of work to be done but from a point percentage perspective, we aren't that far out.  

Winnipeg’s going to be tough to catch, or beat….but hey, I’m all in with this team right now with the way that they’re playing. 

[Patel Bure]

Just now, N4ZZY said:

Winnipeg’s going to be tough to catch, or beat….but hey, I’m all in with this team right now with the way that they’re playing. 

It definitely won't be easy but we've at least put ourselves back into the conversation where dreaming about the playoffs is no longer ridiculous.  

 

We take out San Jose in our back to backs with them and we're back in the conversation.

[Patel Bure]

7 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

Winnipeg’s going to be tough to catch, or beat….but hey, I’m all in with this team right now with the way that they’re playing. 

To be honest, it might not even be Winnipeg that we chase.  I think it might end up being Nashville or Dallas:

 

1) Anaheim, Calgary, and Vegas run away with the division.

2) Winnipeg runs away with the first wildcard spot

3) Edmonton falls

4) LA and San Jose continue to be “average”.

 

That would leave Nashville, Dallas, and the Canucks.

[IBatch]

5 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

To be honest, it might not even be Winnipeg that we chase.  I think it might end up being Nashville or Dallas:

 

1) Anaheim, Calgary, and Vegas run away with the division.

2) Winnipeg runs away with the first wildcard spot

3) Edmonton falls

4) LA and San Jose continue to be “average”.

 

That would leave Nashville, Dallas, and the Canucks.

I really doubt ANA is going to keep it up. Also doubt EDM isnt done yet either and will bounce back some.     As far as the Canucks go....we won't win every game like we have been, i see this as much as a market correction for losing some games we should have won earlier from bad puck luck as much as the Bruce Bump.    We still need to win 2/3 right until the last game to be knocking at the door.   Sure is nice to start gaining on ROW though.    The leaderboard likely won't look much like the one we see now, other then Vegas in our division, and maybe Calgary - but they are also two or three key injuries away from their own losing streak.   

 

Definitely feel that we could be over .500 before the end of the month.    That's amazing really. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by IBatch

[Biff Tannen]

Not sure how much I trust these numbers but since the question was asked...

 

Power Rankings 14%

Sportsclubstats 1.8%

Moneypuck 18.8%

Hockey Reference 10%

 

As far as I can tell the first two don't include the Columbus game yet. Sportsclubstats seems overly negative, I think their method takes less account of current form so they've got Oilers at 65.3%. Without doing some statistical analysis of how accurate the sources have been in the past I don't know who has the best methodology, but I'm definitely not going to bother. Basically it's gonna be hard and probably need a couple of teams above us to slip up, but the odds are heading in the right direction.