Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to make the playoffs

[MikeyD]

1 hour ago, Sean Monahan said:

I’d say he’s closer to Matthews than Boeser in terms of goal scoring ability. Maybe more on par with a Stamkos. He’s supposed to be the best first overall pick since Matthews I believe. 

Fair comparison, I just don't think he shows his hands nearly as much as a Matthews but admittedly I need to scout him more. 

[Nave]

I don't know why people want to trade our only point per game player...

[NewbieCanuckFan]

I'd be on favor of trading Rick Blight for Wright but I don't think we have Blight under contract anymore.

[Coconuts]

Miller will be 29 in March, he'll be 30 by the time his contract expires. This will be his first chance to explore UFA, and likely his last chance to cash in on a big contract. He's due for a sizeable raise on the almost 5.3M he's been making annually and he'll likely be looking to get term with it. 

 

I'm not interested in throwing big dollars and term at him. You can only have so many forwards making big money while maintaining some semblance of balance. Horvat's due for a raise, Boeser will get one at the end of this season, Pettersson will get the same or more as an RFA. We'll have to pay Hoglander and others too. 

 

If we want to improve the rest of the team that money's going to have to come from somewhere. 

 

We'll have to replace Hamonic eventually, and you're not getting a top 4D from UFA for 3M. Myers sooner than later too, and while his 6M likely eats up a good chunk of any signing we make I wouldn't be shocked to see a top 2-4 guy cost more. 

 

Keeping Miller takes up roughly 5.3M right now, but it'd be more going forward. If you keep him you likely have to move Boeser, and given Boeser's will only be 25 in February I ain't all that interested in that. 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by Coconuts

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, Nave said:

I don't know why people want to trade our only point per game player...

See above.

[Provost]

6 minutes ago, Nave said:

I don't know why people want to trade our only point per game player...

Because we are almost certainly going to lose him anyways when he becomes a UFA soon.  Letting assets walk for nothing is a recipe for being a terrible team forever.

If you are contending, then that chance at a Cup is enough to keep players and gamble.  If you are looking at being a bottom 5 team, it is entirely pointless to let players go for nothing.

[Nave]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Because we are almost certainly going to lose him anyways when he becomes a UFA soon.  Letting assets walk for nothing is a recipe for being a terrible team forever.

If you are contending, then that chance at a Cup is enough to keep players and gamble.  If you are looking at being a bottom 5 team, it is entirely pointless to let players go for nothing.

I guess we should hold onto him until the trade deadline, and then see what we can get for him. Trading him now would send the wrong message to the team. 

[Patel Bure]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

This came fast this season.  It is 20% of the season in and the team has fallen pretty far out of the playoff picture.

7+ points out of a playoff spot counting games in hand.  Super depressing and I mostly stopped watching games this week, just recording them and peeking at the score partway through to see if it was worth watching or if I should go slam the car door on my hand a few times to have a more fun time for the evening.

The different models have already shown how far of an uphill climb it will be.  Unlike last year with only divisional play, there are a few more "outs" where teams outside the division can take points away from our competition... but it is looking really grim when you consider the pace the team would have to finish out the season to hit the 95-96 point range for the historic playoff bar.  84 points in 66 games is a tall order, we are talking  .640 hockey or a 105 point pace over a whole season.  Is there any sign at all our team is capable of that kind of run?  We could have a miraculous 10-0 stretch coming up and still have to win almost 60% of our games for the rest of the season after that to be at the fringe playoff bar.

Our chances from the different sites:

Moneypuck 8.1%
Sportsclubstats 9.9%
Hockey Reference 9.7%
Power Rankings 13.2%
The Athletic 6%

Flame away, just like last year when I posted the same thing about odds partway into the season and folks decided to throw feces around because math makes them mad.  The thing about math is it doesn't care how you feel.  It isn't impossible, it is just extremely unlikely. 

The context of this is that hopefully we have a regime change where we can start trading away some of the pieces on the team when other teams are trying to load up for playoff runs before the Olympic break.  Not just tinkering around the edges, but trading away big pieces to rejig the roster substantially. 

If we see Benning stick around and keep trading away futures to make this season look more respectable and try to save his job... that will be disastrous as he would be chasing unicorns and likely fail.

Of course, if you decide to start throwing insults again I might quote some of the posts from last year's thread that will make you look pretty dumb because things turned out just like the odds said they would... defying the odds is a saying because it is an exception and not a likelihood.

We are capped out and have some of of best value contracts expiring soon in Hoglander, Miller, and Horvat.  Who knows what we do with Boeser and if his trade value is drastically reduced with the qualifying offer he needs to get and his uneven performance.

 

With respect,

 

This post just goes to show that you've likely never played team sports before in your life.  

 

Seasons are full of ups and downs, streaks and slumps, sprinkled with certain players catching fire and leading the way, etc.  

 

Now having said that, I do agree that the Canucks are in trouble here, and I do believe that it's related to coaching and systems.  Why?  Lets consider the following:

 

1) Prior to arriving here, Jason Dickinson was a very good penalty killer.

2) Prior to arriving here, OEL was always able to consistently produce offense from the back-end (although he is still having a strong season for us).

3) Pettersson has completely fallen off the map.  He is either playing injured or he is not being utilized correctly. 

4) Boeser is also not playing up to his capabilities that we saw last season, and in the season's prior where he played with Bo Horvat (hint hint Green!  hint hint!).

5) Nate Schmidt has "magically" rediscovered his game in Winnipeg.

 

The main point I'm making is this:   Although the Canucks are in trouble, it's still VERY early in the season, and I believe that a large part of our struggles is directly related to coaching and systems.  Statistics and probabilities are for guys who never got women in high school.  The NHL is for guys who have guts and who realize that peaks and valleys are a natural part of the sporting season.  The Canucks are down but certainly not out.  It's nut up or shut up time for the boys.  

Edited November 16, 2021 by Patel Bure

[Coconuts]

2 minutes ago, Nave said:

I guess we should hold onto him until the trade deadline, and then see what we can get for him. Trading him now would send the wrong message to the team. 

It depends. Every single guy in that room knows it's a business, and if we continue to lose more than we win we'll be out of the race by the deadline. 

 

Would guys be thrilled to lose Miller? Of course not, but how many players are happy to see teammates leave? 

 

How such a trade would be taken would also be impacted by the return. If we trade Miller for futures, yeah, that probably wouldn't go over well. But if we were to trade him to help the current team compete, say.. for help on defense. It could be taken differently. The tricky part, and most important part, is getting the return right. 

[Nave]

Just now, Coconuts said:

It depends. Every single guy in that room knows it's a business, and if we continue to lose more than we win we'll be out of the race by the deadline. 

 

Would guys be thrilled to lose Miller? Of course not, but how many players are happy to see teammates leave? 

 

How such a trade would be taken would also be impacted by the return. If we trade Miller for futures, yeah, that probably wouldn't go over well. But if we were to trade him to help the current team compete, say.. for help on defense. It could be taken differently. The tricky part, and most important part, is getting the return right. 

I look at Miller as a leader of this team. Would not take trading him lightly. 

[Coconuts]

2 minutes ago, Nave said:

I look at Miller as a leader of this team. Would not take trading him lightly. 

Every team has multiple leaders, and you don't get without giving. 

 

His being a leader doesn't negate my previous points. Sooner or later we'd have to pay the piper, and whether we do or not has implications for the rest of the roster. Assuming he even wants to stay.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Coconuts

[Tinky-Winky]

>>>>> TANK <<<<<

 

For Shane Wright (1st Round 2022)

[erkayloomeh]

To fix the problem you need a correct diagnoses of what the problem is. 

No sense trading players away or rebuilding if the problem is coaching!!!

Here's the problem as I see it and have seen for a while.

We either have no a**holes on this team OR  nobodies allowed to be an a**hole. 

For how long now have we seen no real push back from anyone when one of our skill guys gets roughed up. Kokaniemi on Peterson, Matheson, the other night on podkolzin. 

There was the time I think it was in Montreal when one of our players got clocked and was kneeling on the ice with his bell rung. In the post gamer Green was asked about the hit. He shrugged and said yeah  it was a hockey play. 

Even if that wasn't a dirty hit (which it was) a coach shouldn't say that when one of his players gets decked like that. 

Then there was the time against Tampa when there player clocked one of our guys (the time Jon Cooper high five his player that clocked our guy)  

No response!!!!!   That has happened over and over and over. This is really indicative of the problem here folks.!!!!

When we went to the finals in 2011 we probably had 4 a**holes on that team and a coach that was okay with it. 

Make a list of the guys on the 82 team that would break your nose if you touched Gradin. 

All of this ties in with the team having no identity.!!!!!

Team leadership is the responsibility of everyone. 

Starts with aqualini, trickles down to Benning, then to green and then players. 

We should have seen some serious emotion by now . 

Are we concerned here on this board? 

No, we're pissed off. 

Our players (with the exception of a couple) are trying.  They are just completely disorganized.  And you can just see them deflating and giving up ( garland). 

Any wonder it was the new guy(oel) who came to podz defense. 

Sorry for the long post I'm just in disbelief nothing has been done yet. 

 

 

[erkayloomeh]

And another thing. In 94 when playing Calgary, pat Quinn went on a tirade in the dressing room and told courtnall if you dont get out there and "do something " I'm going to rip your head off. Courtnal did something. 

Pat Quinn if you made a mistake would talk to you then keep throwing you out there. 

How many times have we seen young players benched by green for a mistake. 

A very discouraging coach to play for. 

[Junkyard Dog]

Nemec looks like a stud #1 RD. 

[Dazzle]

3 hours ago, drofssalg said:

Funny this popped up now. I was just doing the math on the wins required. Put the bar at 92 points (likely low) - the Canucks need 80 points in 66 games. While not impossible it is improbable. There is a reason why the teams that are out by the end of November rarely make the playoffs. The league is competitive and I actually am surprised at how much better the Pacific division has been. I really figured Calgary, Vancouver and LA would be competing for 3rd and 4th in the division. And here we are - LA and Anaheim are doing well. Edmonton is playing very well and Calgary is way better than expected. The Pacific is not a tire fire and that does not bode well for the Canucks making up ground.

 

At this point there are 20 games left against the Pacific and there are about 22 games left against teams like Toronto, Tampa, Florida, Carolina, etc.. Based on that, I would not be placing a bet on the Canucks making the playoffs. They needed to be in the thick of the race now and not already in a hole. 

 

Go ahead and quote me to disagree but the reality is the math is not in their favour. Not impossible just improbable. Which is exactly what I said last season as the year rolled along. As of today they need a win percentage north of 60 just to get to 92 points. The issue is they have done nothing while performing at a win percentage of 37.5% to show me that is the anomaly. 

The problem is that most observers, including myself, knew that Green was probably a poor choice, in light of his overall record. This is a guy who has a hot run in the bubble, but overall had a winning record of around 50 percent. That is akin to WD who is no longer coaching, and he had poor rosters throughout his time here. Green, however, doesn't get to use this excuse.

 

And here, management still extended Green. You'd have to be insane if doing the same thing over and over would produce a better or different result.

 

Green should've been fired weeks ago. The preseason he strung together was absolutely garbage. The way he handled Juolevi was trash, along with Gadjovich. And we saw early on in the season that there was a lot of stuff to fix from preseason.

 

It makes me wonder about how Green could still be thought of as a good coach. Where's the evidence for this?

 

The problem with this team and management has been to continually shoot themselves with poor decisions. Green's extension is probably the worst, especially since we knew what Green was like.

 

 

 

[Dazzle]

I'm all for throwing this season away. Trade Miller for a good pick, but keep the younger players.

 

Sorry, but Bo should be traded for a strong pick. Pettersson/Hughes can stay, and so can Boeser.

 

Sell high for the pieces you can get, and rebuild through the draft/trade deadline. The Canucks can absolutely profit off this.

[Heretic]

[Coconuts]

6 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

I'm all for throwing this season away. Trade Miller for a good pick, but keep the younger players.

 

Sorry, but Bo should be traded for a strong pick. Pettersson/Hughes can stay, and so can Boeser.

 

Sell high for the pieces you can get, and rebuild through the draft/trade deadline. The Canucks can absolutely profit off this.

I'd keep Bo personally, 10 points in 16 games is still solid production and he's the only one who's been winning faceoffs consistently. Top 6 center's are tough to replace, particularly prime aged one's and Bo's only 26. I also just don't see them trading our captain. 

 

Agree on Miller, as he's closer to 30 and I view him as more of a winger. 

[Junkyard Dog]

Just now, Coconuts said:

I'd keep Bo personally, 10 points in 16 games is still solid production and he's the only one who's been winning faceoffs consistently. Top 6 center's are tough to replace, particularly prime aged one's and Bo's only 26. I also just don't see them trading our captain. 

 

Agree on Miller, as he's closer to 30 and I view him as more of a winger. 

I could see both Miller and Horvat walking in 2023 for nothing if the team is still crap. We’ve seen captains walk in UFA before. They are both in their primes with the last chance at a big contract. Many teams would covet them too. 
 

Both Miller and Horvat separately would command a small fortune each. We’d definitely be absolutely trash without them but drafting top 5 in these next 2 deep drafts,  while having extra early picks, might not be a bad thing. 
 

We definitely be in a soft rebuild and keep the youngsters like Hog/Hughes/Demko/Pod/Petey and maybe Boeser and trade away the high value vets starting with Horvat/Miller and maybe Boeser.