[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[JM_]

8 hours ago, N4ZZY said:

I honestly don’t think that the Rangers are interested in Miller anymore. Asking price is just too damn high from JR (well, at least what he said before about what he’s expecting as a return). So unless JR lowers his expectation, they’ll have to look elsewhere. 

 

they could be waiting to see what Kadri is looking for, and Strome. Miller will be compared against these two for sure. 

[Alflives]

3 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

https://canucksarmy.com/2022/04/01/five-year-high-salary-bonus-extension-is-the-canucks-keeping-jt-miller/

This article points out exactly why we should have traded Miller at this last TDL (highest trade value and we can’t afford to sign him to the contract he will command) and that we changed our philosophical direction from deep retool to compete now a few weeks before the deadline.  

I think we need to expect a Zib contract for Miller and there to be no retool.  

[JM_]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

This article points out exactly why we should have traded Miller at this last TDL (highest trade value and we can’t afford to sign him to the contract he will command) and that we changed our philosophical direction from deep retool to compete now a few weeks before the deadline.  

I think we need to expect a Zib contract for Miller and there to be no retool.  

good offers may not have been there. Or at least good enough. Did any of the usual media types (Freidman e.g.) ever come out with a story about an offer?

[N4ZZY]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

This article points out exactly why we should have traded Miller at this last TDL (highest trade value and we can’t afford to sign him to the contract he will command) and that we changed our philosophical direction from deep retool to compete now a few weeks before the deadline.  

I think we need to expect a Zib contract for Miller and there to be no retool.  

If there's not retool, then I can't really see the current team becoming a contender. There's a lot left to be desired, and the current team just isn't good enough to be able to compete, as we've seen against the Blues the last two games. There definitely needs to be a retool - some players and contracts need to be shipped out, and need to find replacements for those players that will live up if not exceed their contracts. Easier said than done. 

 

 

[N4ZZY]

24 minutes ago, JM_ said:

good offers may not have been there. Or at least good enough. Did any of the usual media types (Freidman e.g.) ever come out with a story about an offer?

Yeah, I tend to agree that maybe the offers for Miller weren't good enough, and some of the teams were trying to rip JR and PA off. I think it's the right decision that they didn't trade Miller if the offers were low. It's just not good business.  But now their window to sign or trade is the summer, if they can't get a deal done, they need to ship Miller out ASAP, or else they risk actually either 1. lose him for nothing, or 2. force to trade him for low offers. Either way, those two options aren't great, and would be setting this team back for years on top of what has already set them back because of Benning's blunders. 

 

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

This article points out exactly why we should have traded Miller at this last TDL (highest trade value and we can’t afford to sign him to the contract he will command) and that we changed our philosophical direction from deep retool to compete now a few weeks before the deadline.  

I think we need to expect a Zib contract for Miller and there to be no retool.  

Yes it also shows even blind people like Canucks Army can see that we can't afford to sign him without inducing massive bleeding. I think you need to check your batteries on your crystal ball though. It's giving you old inaccurate owner meddling updates from 2016. They haven't made a decision on this yet Alf. We may still get a better offer. One thing we know about hockey is anything can and does happen. It's impossible to predict the landscape when we haven't even hit this years playoffs yet.

 

 

 

 

[JM_]

17 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

Yeah, I tend to agree that maybe the offers for Miller weren't good enough, and some of the teams were trying to rip JR and PA off. I think it's the right decision that they didn't trade Miller if the offers were low. It's just not good business.  But now their window to sign or trade is the summer, if they can't get a deal done, they need to ship Miller out ASAP, or else they risk actually either 1. lose him for nothing, or 2. force to trade him for low offers. Either way, those two options aren't great, and would be setting this team back for years on top of what has already set them back because of Benning's blunders. 

 

I'm still in the keep Miller camp, but I don't want to see continued loss of assets either. its not easy.

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Yes it also shows even blind people like Canucks Army can see that we can't afford to sign him without inducing massive bleeding. I think you need to check your batteries on your crystal ball though. It's giving you old inaccurate owner meddling updates from 2016. They haven't made a decision on this yet Alf. We may still get a better offer. One thing we know about hockey is anything can and does happen. It's impossible to predict the landscape when we haven't even hit this years playoffs yet.

 

 

 

 

 

we're missing a massive chunk of info - we have no idea what the offers are for our players, and how those new assets would fit in or not. We don't need anymore small puck movers on the left side, but if thats all a team has to offer it doesn't help us to move Miller for that. 

 

 

[aGENT]

5 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

https://canucksarmy.com/2022/04/01/five-year-high-salary-bonus-extension-is-the-canucks-keeping-jt-miller/

Even their 5 year, high AAV, bonus rich deal is wishful thinking IMO. I don't see Miller taking an almost $18m discount, just because the author suggested it. IMO a 5 year deal is easily over a $10m AAV.

 

His agent is going to be looking at +/-$65m divided by how many years the contract is. Maybe, maybe you get a small discount on that $65m on a shorter deal if you can sell him on getting more cash upfront etc, but $17.5m...? Not a chance. And even a $5m discount to $60m divided by 5 years, is still a $12m AAV. A $10m discount to $55m? $11m AAV.

 

And even those are optimistic numbers! Do people honestly think he's going to just take a bigger discount than that, "because"?!

 

There just isn't a deal that's likely to work for both player and team. It doesn't exist unless Miller is entirely more enamored with the city than anyone could imagine, and is willing to take a LARGE ($15-$20m) discount to stay here... There's simply no option but moving him.

[Gawdzukes]

Thinking about what the landscape will be like in the summer got me thinking that every player decision about their future is unique. For instance maybe he's a Red Wings fan and sees them as a possible destination. Or maybe he wants to play for Mario Lemieux in Pitt where he grew up. However we usually get somewhat of a read from UFA players through interviews and such. We have no insight at all from him about his plans in this case though. Is it because our media is such absolute garbage? I think that's quite possible. I wouldn't want to disclose anything to those morons either.

[Gawdzukes]

21 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Even their 5 year, high AAV, bonus rich deal is wishful thinking IMO. I don't see Miller taking an almost $18m discount, just because the author suggested it. IMO a 5 year deal is easily over a $10m AAV.

 

His agent is going to be looking at +/-$65m divided by how many years the contract is. Maybe, maybe you get a small discount on that $65m on a shorter deal if you can sell him on getting more cash upfront etc, but $17.5m...? Not a chance. And even a $5m discount to $60m divided by 5 years, is still a $12m AAV. A $10m discount to $55m? $11m AAV.

 

And even those are optimistic numbers! Do people honestly think he's going to just take a bigger discount than that, "because"?!

 

There just isn't a deal that's likely to work for both player and team. It doesn't exist unless Miller is entirely more enamored with the city than anyone could imagine, and is willing to take a LARGE ($15-$20m) discount to stay here... There's simply no option but moving him.

Oh yeah I agree, don't shoot the messenger lol.  In one sentence he says Miller won't leave money on the table and then suggests he leave 18mil in the next.  These Canucks Army guys leave a lot to be desired but it does illustrate some of the problems with any Miller contract. 6 x 9.5 or 10 maybe gets it a little closer but I don't know how this makes sense to us unless people are just excited to watch Miller make big money while we flounder around in circles.

 

  

17 minutes ago, JM_ said:

 

we're missing a massive chunk of info - we have no idea what the offers are for our players, and how those new assets would fit in or not. We don't need anymore small puck movers on the left side, but if thats all a team has to offer it doesn't help us to move Miller for that. 

 

 

Yes way more info needed on all fronts. I really think we all need to wait until the playoffs are over to see what's left. Everyone feels like they know their team and the direction and plan is pretty obvious but every year that drastically changes for a lot of teams. We still have the draft, UFA, the hockey playoffs, trades, injuries, prospects, breakthroughs, year end interviews, and player/team decisions. It's going to be a long summer.  

Edited April 2, 2022 by Gawdzukes

[Jester13]

12 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Even their 5 year, high AAV, bonus rich deal is wishful thinking IMO. I don't see Miller taking an almost $18m discount, just because the author suggested it. IMO a 5 year deal is easily over a $10m AAV.

 

His agent is going to be looking at +/-$65m divided by how many years the contract is. Maybe, maybe you get a small discount on that $65m on a shorter deal if you can sell him on getting more cash upfront etc, but $17.5m...? Not a chance. And even a $5m discount to $60m divided by 5 years, is still a $12m AAV. A $10m discount to $55m? $11m AAV.

 

And even those are optimistic numbers! Do people honestly think he's going to just take a bigger discount than that, "because"?!

 

There just isn't a deal that's likely to work for both player and team. It doesn't exist unless Miller is entirely more enamored with the city than anyone could imagine, and is willing to take a LARGE ($15-$20m) discount to stay here... There's simply no option but moving him.

IYO, which team is capable/possibly willing to trade significant assets for Miller with the intention of signing him to a realistic long-term deal? I'm not sure I can think of anyone, which leads me to believe that Miller is going to be a rental to some team and that we'll only be able to recoup assets that are of rental calibre. 

[JM_]

16 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Even their 5 year, high AAV, bonus rich deal is wishful thinking IMO. I don't see Miller taking an almost $18m discount, just because the author suggested it. IMO a 5 year deal is easily over a $10m AAV.

 

His agent is going to be looking at +/-$65m divided by how many years the contract is. Maybe, maybe you get a small discount on that $65m on a shorter deal if you can sell him on getting more cash upfront etc, but $17.5m...? Not a chance. And even a $5m discount to $60m divided by 5 years, is still a $12m AAV. A $10m discount to $55m? $11m AAV.

 

And even those are optimistic numbers! Do people honestly think he's going to just take a bigger discount than that, "because"?!

 

There just isn't a deal that's likely to work for both player and team. It doesn't exist unless Miller is entirely more enamored with the city than anyone could imagine, and is willing to take a LARGE ($15-$20m) discount to stay here... There's simply no option but moving him.

Teams are going to be comparing him to Kadri and Strome. If they're nowhere in that salary range Miller won't be able to command that massive number. Why pay Miller 9.5 if you can get Kadri for 7? Strome for 6?

[aGENT]

29 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

IYO, which team is capable/possibly willing to trade significant assets for Miller with the intention of signing him to a realistic long-term deal? I'm not sure I can think of anyone, which leads me to believe that Miller is going to be a rental to some team and that we'll only be able to recoup assets that are of rental calibre. 

Nashville, Boston, maybe Pittsburgh easily and likely another 5+ teams that would have to (eventually) move out salary (which teams consistently do).

 

26 minutes ago, JM_ said:

Teams are going to be comparing him to Kadri and Strome. If they're nowhere in that salary range Miller won't be able to command that massive number. Why pay Miller 9.5 if you can get Kadri for 7? Strome for 6?

No, they'll pay Miller closer to $8.5x7 (or if they trade for him, $8.125x8).

 

Probably because he's a better player? And I doubt Kadri signs for $7x5 either (since you want to conflate terms here).

Edited April 2, 2022 by aGENT

[higgyfan]

9 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Even their 5 year, high AAV, bonus rich deal is wishful thinking IMO. I don't see Miller taking an almost $18m discount, just because the author suggested it. IMO a 5 year deal is easily over a $10m AAV.

 

His agent is going to be looking at +/-$65m divided by how many years the contract is. Maybe, maybe you get a small discount on that $65m on a shorter deal if you can sell him on getting more cash upfront etc, but $17.5m...? Not a chance. And even a $5m discount to $60m divided by 5 years, is still a $12m AAV. A $10m discount to $55m? $11m AAV.

 

And even those are optimistic numbers! Do people honestly think he's going to just take a bigger discount than that, "because"?!

 

There just isn't a deal that's likely to work for both player and team. It doesn't exist unless Miller is entirely more enamored with the city than anyone could imagine, and is willing to take a LARGE ($15-$20m) discount to stay here... There's simply no option but moving him.

I think JT is looking at a similar contract to Zibanejad ( +$8.5 x 8yrs + NMC) range  This is why

I think the Rags are no longer interested in him.  There are not a lot of teams that want to put the

$, term along with NMC on their cap. 

The best thing that could happen (if the Nucks want to trade JT), is for a team like Preds, Stars,

Wild, etc to have poor performances during the playoffs.  They have the extra salary cap to

take on Miller's contract and he certainly would take them to greener pastures next season.

[The Lock]

12 hours ago, aGENT said:

Yeah, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, both sides of this are the worst  There's people who think we should only trade Miller if we get Laffy, Schneider, Kakko and their next 5 1sts. Then there's some people who think we're only going to get Kravstov, and a 1st.

 

Realistically, it doesn't sound like we're getting Schneider (happy to be wrong though!). But there's no reason we couldn't get something like Chytil, Lundqvist and a 1st. Bonus points for an additional Kravstov/Othman/Barron/Robertson etc.

Yeah I'd be happy to be wrong on this too.

 

I just didn't see the logical reasoning on why any team would give up the farm for a single player that's going to get a major wage increase. I don't care if it's for Miller or Connor McDavid: there comes a point where a single player is not going to get you as much value in the long term than those other prospects you just gave up. Not to mention, you're suddenly paying more cap for that single player, hampering you more than those other players you just gave up.

 

It's easy to salivate over getting max value for a player, but that's literally only thinking about us and completely ignoring the other team and why or why not another team would even think about pulling that trigger.

[aGENT]

12 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

I think JT is looking at a similar contract to Zibanejad ( +$8.5 x 8yrs + NMC) range  This is why

I think the Rags are no longer interested in him.  There are not a lot of teams that want to put the

$, term along with NMC on their cap. 

The best thing that could happen (if the Nucks want to trade JT), is for a team like Preds, Stars,

Wild, etc to have poor performances during the playoffs.  They have the extra salary cap to

take on Miller's contract and he certainly would take them to greener pastures next season.

I think the Rangers would still have interest, they'd just need to either move out other cap, not extend Strome, or only take him on as a rental. That's up to them.

 

 

[Vinny in Vancouver]

11 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

I think JT is looking at a similar contract to Zibanejad ( +$8.5 x 8yrs + NMC) range  This is why

I think the Rags are no longer interested in him.  There are not a lot of teams that want to put the

$, term along with NMC on their cap. 

Zibanejad signed his contract October 10, 2021. The Rangers' interest in JT Miller happened after that.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, The Lock said:

Yeah I'd be happy to be wrong on this too.

 

I just didn't see the logical reasoning on why any team would give up the farm for a single player that's going to get a major wage increase. I don't care if it's for Miller or Connor McDavid: there comes a point where a single player is not going to get you as much value in the long term than those other prospects you just gave up. Not to mention, you're suddenly paying more cap for that single player, hampering you more than those other players you just gave up.

 

It's easy to salivate over getting max value for a player, but that's literally only thinking about us and completely ignoring the other team and why or why not another team would even think about pulling that trigger.

Yeah, I mean we can certainly get some value but the multiple TOP prospects "dream" returns just aren't realistic.

 

Teams will certainly sacrifice some youth for a chance at a cup, we see it all the time. But they're not going to move their ENTIRE future, no.

[mll]

21 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

I think JT is looking at a similar contract to Zibanejad ( +$8.5 x 8yrs + NMC) range  This is why

I think the Rags are no longer interested in him.  There are not a lot of teams that want to put the

$, term along with NMC on their cap. 

The best thing that could happen (if the Nucks want to trade JT), is for a team like Preds, Stars,

Wild, etc to have poor performances during the playoffs.  They have the extra salary cap to

take on Miller's contract and he certainly would take them to greener pastures next season.

Miller looks to be the wrong age group for Nashville.  Poile talks of them re-tooling to get younger.  Their window will really open with their prospects taking the next step. They don't look to be the best trading partners.  

 

The Wild wouldn't have the cap space. Guerin has also said multiple times that he's not in the slightest interested in trading prospects or high draft picks they've worked hard to acquire.  He talked of how those futures are essential to weather their 13-15M cap penalties over the next 3 seasons.  The only reason he gave up the 2nd for Fleury is because they are getting a compensatory pick for not signing their 1st round pick in 2018 and another for the rights of McBain + they plan to extend him.

 

Can't see the Stars being interested given they witnessed 1st hand how quick players can fall off a cliff with Benn and Seguin.

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by mll