[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[Jester13]

45 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

That's the beauty of a Canadian Market. 

 

Personally I would move Miller for a king's ransom but if we are to re-sign him I would try to make it shorter term and front loaded, even if we have to pay extra. I wouldn't want to risk extra down years with Miller at a high cap hit.

 

Something like a 10M x 5 years, front loaded. I have a feeling he could get around 9M though long-term, maybe more if he can continue this current pace. Quality player. 

 

Personally that's me.

Sign him for whatever we can afford while still keeping together the rest of our star players, which IMO includes Brock and Garland, or get a king's ransom. This is it in a nutshell. I'm nervous. 

[Maniwaki Canuck]

2 hours ago, stawns said:

speculating?  On a discussion board?  Who'da thunk it

It's not the speculation that's gotten stale, but the loud, passionate certainty with no real information to back it up.  If I recall in your case, that would be the certainty that he'll be dealt if we fall out of the playoff race before the deadline.  Doesn't look like we will, so it's an easy opinion to have. 

[aGENT]

9 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Not sure he gets moved this deadline anymore. Doesn’t appear like he will though JR and Alvin have been keeping their cards tucked close lately. 
 

Not sure what to expect this deadline. We’ll see. 

 

9 hours ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

It's gonna be fun coming back to this thread after deadline day 

 

8 hours ago, HKSR said:

It just means we'll have arguments until draft day lol

 

Yeah, it's probably unlikely he gets moved this TDL unless someone caves and comes in with a "Godfather" offer (*fingers crossed*). And that's fine, the boys, Miller included, have played hard.

 

But I don't see any way this makes it past this summer. Either he's extended (unlikely IMO), or he's moved. Until one of those two things happen, this thread and discussion, will continue (sorry folks who want the thread closed).

 

There's far too much risk dragging it in to the season and especially the TDL as I've seen some mention. His value now vs summer is similar but his value decreases, as we get increasingly closer to that TDL. And buying teams increasingly gain leverage.

 

Risk of his play dropping off, risk of injury, risk of increasing buyer leverage closer to the TDL, risk of moving him in the midst of (hopefully) another battle for a playoff spot. Very little chance this carries on past summer IMO.

[stawns]

8 minutes ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

It's not the speculation that's gotten stale, but the loud, passionate certainty with no real information to back it up.  If I recall in your case, that would be the certainty that he'll be dealt if we fall out of the playoff race before the deadline.  Doesn't look like we will, so it's an easy opinion to have. 

If only there were a way you could avoid reading those threads

[SilentSam]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Yes. A Stanley Cup. The entire reason these guys play/manage hockey.

 

That's his comparative contract value. What else would he be signing? I don't think we will be signing him to that but that means he's moving on. Therefore, it's pretty clear, given management's comments on not letting UFA's walk, that trading him is our only option.

 

 

I'm not sure what you're talking about. 

 

Forwards, overwhelmingly, decline sharply, starting at 32. That's just statistics. We're not even in our contention window yet and that's simply not a contract we should be signing because of pretty clear statistics and math and the timing (2+years as stated by management) of our contention window.

So,  why can’t we think about a Stanley Cup?

 

We might be one of the best Teams since the Coaching Change.

 

There are another asset/ assets than Miller we could move to get what we need in a player/ players .

Miller is the type of leader that will take you there.

Remove him from the lineup , and what we are seeing right now starts to regress into the unknown.

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

So,  why can’t we think about a Stanley Cup?

 

We can. In a few years. Just as management has already stated, is their aim.

 

3 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

We might be one of the best Teams since the Coaching Change.

 

We're not remotely a contender as currently constructed. And even less so, moving forward with our current structural and succession issues.

[SilentSam]

36 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

We can. In a few years. Just as management has already stated, is their aim.

 

 

We're not remotely a contender as currently constructed. And even less so, moving forward with our current structural and succession issues.

Your opinion lol..  

and your demon-strative appeal ..  

 

Moving forward with current structural and succession is what every team does agent.

 

Your willing  to tear it apart for mediocre hockey for 5 years, in a rebuild in hopes to get to a point like this team is in right now.

You’ll only want to do it again when it gets good in another 5 years.

trade for shiny bits of the unknown .

The Twilight Zone.

 

I think what your seeing is the other side of the canyon,  and not building the bridge to get you there..

 

 

The time right now is to build around our strengths,  and accelerate.

 

We’re 2 positions from full strength.. and that’s this season.

 

Next season will be a blast regardless, especially after great conversations with Miller have him re-signing here.. which is what Management has stated ( they hope to keep him).  .  And Boudreau will have a huge say in that,.  He is, after all , the man working closest to him,  and knows from experience what good leadership brings and builds, in the present, and in the future.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by SilentSam

[The Lock]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

Yes. A Stanley Cup. The entire reason these guys play/manage hockey.

 

That's his comparative contract value. What else would he be signing? I don't think we will be signing him to that but that means he's moving on. Therefore, it's pretty clear, given management's comments on not letting UFA's walk, that trading him is our only option.

 

 

I'm not sure what you're talking about. 

 

Forwards, overwhelmingly, decline sharply, starting at 32. That's just statistics. We're not even in our contention window yet and that's simply not a contract we should be signing because of pretty clear statistics and math and the timing (2+years as stated by management) of our contention window.

What I'm talking about is the assumption that he's instantly going to want an 8 year deal. We don't know if that's what he's going to want in the end. He might try for it, sure, but we don't know.

 

So I'm not arguing about a players' decline in the 30's. I'm talking about how in this threads it seems to want to be assumed he's going to want a crazy deal that goes into his late 30's. Again, while that could be true, it's only an assumption and I think it's dangerous territoy to be making trades purely on assumptions.

 

If he gets traded at some point before his contract expires, then maybe the assumption ends up true, but maybe he resigns here as well. It may seem crazy right now, but think about our situation now and what we thought it was going to be even 2 years ago.... things change in short periods of time.

 

So overall, I just don't think such a trade is wise until it's actually known what he wants. We should be looking at our different directions and have as much certainty as we can before just diving in head first into a trade we could potentially regret. Right now, I almost picture half the people in this char screaming "LEEEEROY JENKINS LET'S TRADE MILLER NOW NOW NOW!!!" lol Like.... what?.....why?.... That's at least how I view this.

Edited March 11, 2022 by The Lock

[Coconuts]

7 hours ago, garthsbutcher said:

I think Bo is falling out of favour with new management and many fans myself included. If you get a great offer you move him

I don't agree, Bo's actually on pace for his typical amount of goals and points. And just because he's not having a career season like Miller doesn't mean he's not valuable or a leader. 

 

I think it's disappointing how quickly some folks have been willing to turn on Bo. But then again, those are the same fans who were prepared to trade 23 year old Pettersson when he was struggling earlier in the season. Fickle fanbase. 

 

And not before the offseason you don't. Trading Bo at the deadline only for Miller to hum and hah over a contract would be troublesome, trading Bo only for Miller to decide he wants out would be disastrous. You also hand Miller more leverage in contract negotiations by moving Bo because we're basically &^@#ed at that point if he walks. Suddenly you're down two center's and you're left with EP and little else. 

 

I fully expect Bo to be retained because I expect his ask will be much more reasonable.

 

5 hours ago, J-23 said:

Not every player declines in their 30’s. Pavelski is putting up career numbers. Ovechkin putting up one of his best year. Zucarello going to having best point production year.

Miller isn't Pavelski, got look at his numbers. In sixteen seasons he has three seasons at forty points or less, three. And one of those was 31 in 48 games. Twelve seasons of 50+ points, eight 60+ seasons and that'll be nine as he's currently at 59 points. Three 70+ seasons, three more where he almost hist 70, two at almost 80. Pavelski's been a consistent contributor his entire career, those players aren't the norm. You don't compare Miller to Ovechkin, you just don't, that's laughable. Ovi is a once in a lifetime talent, a generational talent, him and Miller don't belong in the same sentence. Ovi's been productive his entire career like Pavelski, but on an entirely different level. 

 

You're closer with Zuccarello.

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, The Lock said:

What I'm talking about is the assumption that he's instantly going to want an 8 year deal. We don't know if that's what he's going to want in the end. He might try for it, sure, but we don't know.

 

So I'm not arguing about a players' decline in the 30's. I'm talking about how in this threads it seems to want to be assumed he's going to want a crazy deal that goes into his late 30's. Again, while that could be true, it's only an assumption and I think it's dangerous territoy to be making trades purely on assumptions.

 

If he gets traded at some point before his contract expires, then maybe the assumption ends up true, but maybe he resigns here as well. It may seem crazy right now, but think about our situation now and what we thought it was going to be even 2 years ago.... things change in short periods of time.

 

So overall, I just don't think such a trade is wise until it's actually known what he wants. We should be looking at our different directions and have as much certainty as we can before just diving in head first into a trade we could potentially regret. Right now, I almost picture half the people in this char screaming "LEEEEROY JENKINS LET'S TRADE MILLER NOW NOW NOW!!!" lol Like.... what?.....why?.... That's at least how I view this.

Why wouldn't he want a similar deal to his contemporaries? I honestly don't see any way he signs for less than 6 years (which is still VERY unlikely and still too long). Honestly, you're entire premise is odd. I may not know it's going to rain tomorrow, but if the weather forecast says 90% chance of rain, I'm packing my rain coat. It's just prudent planning.

 

We can infer, with reasonable certainty, what his next contract will be. +/-8.5m and 6-8 years. That's what his comparables dictate. And if anything, his recent play is raising that, not lowering it. It's not a deal we should be signing, as good as he is RIGHT NOW, with where we are.

 

Who said NOW NOWNOW!!!? Potentially this TDL with an appropriate offer (unlikely) and if not, this summer. 

 

2 hours ago, SilentSam said:

Your opinion lol..  

and your demon-strative appeal ..  

 

Moving forward with current structural and succession is what every team does agent.

 

Your willing  to tear it apart for mediocre hockey for 5 years, in a rebuild in hopes to get to a point like this team is in right now.

You’ll only want to do it again when it gets good in another 5 years.

trade for shiny bits of the unknown .

The Twilight Zone.

 

I think what your seeing is the other side of the canyon,  and not building the bridge to get you there..

 

 

The time right now is to build around our strengths,  and accelerate.

 

We’re 2 positions from full strength.. and that’s this season.

 

Next season will be a blast regardless, especially after great conversations with Miller have him re-signing here.. which is what Management has stated ( they hope to keep him).  .  And Boudreau will have a huge say in that,.  He is, after all , the man working closest to him,  and knows from experience what good leadership brings and builds, in the present, and in the future.

 

We're a poorly constructed (D in particular) bubble playoff team, with goaltending masking a lot of flaws and major structural and succession and hampering cap issues. 

 

And nobody suggested " tearing it all apart".

 

No that's not all teams and no, that's not when you go all in/accelerate. it's also the opposite of what management has said is their plan (build a contender in 2+ years).

 

Yeah, I'd love to retain Miller too (for $8mx4-5 years). Unfortunately that's a pipe dream.

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by aGENT

[The Lock]

9 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Why wouldn't he want a similar deal to his contemporaries? I honestly don't see any way he signs for less than 6 years (which is still VERY unlikely and still too long). Honestly, you're entire premise is odd. I may not know it's going to rain tomorrow, but if the weather forecast says 90% chance of rain, I'm packing my rain coat. It's just prudent planning.

 

We can infer, with reasonable certainty, what his next contract will be. +/-8.5m and 6-8 years. That's what his comparables dictate. And if anything, his recent play is raising that, not lowering it. It's not a deal we should be signing, as good as he is RIGHT NOW, with where we are.

 

Who said NOW NOWNOW!!!? Potentially this TDL with an appropriate offer (unlikely) and if not, this summer. 

I didn't say anyone said "now now now". I said that's how it feels like people are reacting. People seem to want to take parts of sentences here and spin them. I get that, but read what I'm saying please.  Miller gets good effectively and it seems like people would rather trade him than have a good team. That's what this feels like to me. The value we get back is highly unlikely to be what we'd want back for him because most teams can't exactly afford it.

 

I don't think it's a 90% chance of rain though. I think it's more we're looking at the alamanac 2 years from now and panicing about it now. Perhaps that's the difference between the way you're seeing things and the way I'm seeing things. I think your view is just as odd too if I'm being honest. I thought you would at least see what I'm saying in that we don't know yet what's going to happen.

 

At the end of the day though, this whole discussions kind of silly anyway. I think we should at least all rejoice we have a player like Miller here for the time being, whether its for 1 year or for 6 or more years.

Edited March 11, 2022 by The Lock

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, The Lock said:

I didn't say anyone said "now now now". I said that's how it feels like people are reacting. People seem to want to take parts of sentences here and spin them. I get that, but read what I'm saying please.  

If that's how you "feel like people are reacting", perhaps you should try actually reading their posts  Seems to me that's you projecting.

 

3 minutes ago, The Lock said:

 

I don't think it's a 90% chance of rain though. I think it's more we're looking at the alamanac 2 years from now and panicing about it now. Perhaps that's the difference between the way you're seeing things and the way I'm seeing things. I think your view is just as odd too if I'm being honest. I thought you would at least see what I'm saying in that we don't know yet what's going to happen.

Who's panicking? Some of us are trying to be pragmatic about the realities of the situation. This is far from a panic move. Prudent planning. Airy-fairy "wait and see" and ignoring clear comparables, projections, player fall off stats etc doesn't strike me as good management or planning.

 

3 minutes ago, The Lock said:

At the end of the day though, this whole discussions kind of silly anyway. I think we should at least all rejoice we have a player like Miller here for the time being, whether its for 1 year or for 6 or more years.

Agreed. Hell of a player. Exceeded even my lofty expectations of when we first traded for him and I was one of the few people not panicking on "wasting a first on a 3rd liner".

[J-23]

32 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I don't agree, Bo's actually on pace for his typical amount of goals and points. And just because he's not having a career season like Miller doesn't mean he's not valuable or a leader. 

 

I think it's disappointing how quickly some folks have been willing to turn on Bo. But then again, those are the same fans who were prepared to trade 23 year old Pettersson when he was struggling earlier in the season. Fickle fanbase. 

 

And not before the offseason you don't. Trading Bo at the deadline only for Miller to hum and hah over a contract would be troublesome, trading Bo only for Miller to decide he wants out would be disastrous. You also hand Miller more leverage in contract negotiations by moving Bo because we're basically &^@#ed at that point if he walks. Suddenly you're down two center's and you're left with EP and little else. 

 

I fully expect Bo to be retained because I expect his ask will be much more reasonable.

 

Miller isn't Pavelski, got look at his numbers. In sixteen seasons he has three seasons at forty points or less, three. And one of those was 31 in 48 games. Twelve seasons of 50+ points, eight 60+ seasons and that'll be nine as he's currently at 59 points. Three 70+ seasons, three more where he almost hist 70, two at almost 80. Pavelski's been a consistent contributor his entire career, those players aren't the norm. You don't compare Miller to Ovechkin, you just don't, that's laughable. Ovi is a once in a lifetime talent, a generational talent, him and Miller don't belong in the same sentence. Ovi's been productive his entire career like Pavelski, but on an entirely different level. 

 

You're closer with Zuccarello.

I ain’t comparing Miller to any of those players lol. Just saying the general argument that players decline in their 30’s isn’t exactly correct.

[The Lock]

32 minutes ago, aGENT said:

If that's how you "feel like people are reacting", perhaps you should try actually reading their posts  Seems to me that's you projecting.

 

Who's panicking? Some of us are trying to be pragmatic about the realities of the situation. This is far from a panic move. Prudent planning. Airy-fairy "wait and see" and ignoring clear comparables, projections, player fall off stats etc doesn't strike me as good management or planning.

 

Agreed. Hell of a player. Exceeded even my lofty expectations of when we first traded for him and I was one of the few people not panicking on "wasting a first on a 3rd liner".

We'll have to agree to disagree on some of this. I think it's too early to be pragmatic about things. I get the mentality. Don't get be wrong, but it's just too early.

 

I also feel like what I'm typing isn't being read and just being pushed aside as if I'm not reading others peoples' posts. There's been a lot of people taking practically 1 or 2 words of my sentences here and just creating their own narrative (ie. someone claiming I said Miller would take a bargain of a deal when the entire other half of my sentence said it might not happen either). I'm not worried though as all that really tells me is they don't care to understand anothers' ideas. They just want to "be right" which isn't a good way of approaching a debate.

 

I get it though, people are dismissive of others' views on this forum often times. People want shiny new toys over having a good team I guess. lol

 

At least we can agree with Miller being a solid player.

Edited March 11, 2022 by The Lock

[Coconuts]

36 minutes ago, J-23 said:

I ain’t comparing Miller to any of those players lol. Just saying the general argument that players decline in their 30’s isn’t exactly correct.

It almost always is though, all players decline, it's just a matter of when it begins and what that looks like. Do some players maintain a higher level of play? Absolutely. Is it the norm? Depends on the level of play you're expecting.

 

Will JT be worth 9M? At 34? I reckon not.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Coconuts

[The Lock]

Anyway, there's no point in me continuing this discussion. We'll see what happens over the next couple of years....

 

....just don't be surprised if if turns out that things change in a year. I won't be surprised with anything at this point: whether we trade him or even somehow manage to sign him.

[shiznak]

4 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

That's the beauty of a Canadian Market. 

 

Personally I would move Miller for a king's ransom but if we are to re-sign him I would try to make it shorter term and front loaded, even if we have to pay extra. I wouldn't want to risk extra down years with Miller at a high cap hit.

 

Something like a 10M x 5 years, front loaded. I have a feeling he could get around 9M though long-term, maybe more if he can continue this current pace. Quality player. 

 

Personally that's me.

This will probably be his last contract.
 

Why would he settle for 10M for 5 years? When he could get 8M for 7 years on the open market, get that job security and that extra 6M.

[RWJC]

.

Edited March 11, 2022 by RWJC

[J-23]

14 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

It almost always is though, all players decline, it's just a matter of when it begins and what that looks like. Do some players maintain a higher level of play? Absolutely. Is it the norm? Depends on the level of play you're expecting.

 

Will JT be worth 9M? At 34? I reckon not.

JT probably sign for 8-8.5 at 7 years. 
 

Will JT be worth the money at 34? Who really knows? That’s not a question anyone can really answer…At 7 years, I think JT gives you 5 solid season and average the last two.

 

JT on pace for 90 points, without him we are a bottom 10 team. If we move JT we might as well start rebuild 2.0. This team is pretty much .700 win percentage under BB right now. We should be looking to get better now. Trading JT doesn’t do that.

[aGENT]

13 minutes ago, The Lock said:

We'll have to agree to disagree on some of this. I think it's too early to be pragmatic about things. I get the mentality. Don't get be wrong, but it's just too early.

It's really not. I honestly don't see any realistic way we can, or should, retain him given his age, where the team is at in its cycle, and what his next contract looks like. (And sorry but we do have a pretty good idea, whether you like to think so or not). Not if we want to build a contending team.

 

Once you've made the determination he's not in the long term plans, the ONLY route is to trade him. Maximize the return for him in order to strengthen the club in its contention window 2+ years from now. The further in to next season he's here, the less he's worth. The closer to the TDL it gets, the more leverage buyers have.

 

IMO, he gets moved this TDL (unlikely), or this summer. Too many risks waiting beyond then. Risk he gets hurt, has a down year, buyers gain leverage, that you'll pull the rug out from a team (hopefully) competing for a playoff spot...

 

13 minutes ago, The Lock said:

 

I also feel like what I'm typing isn't being read and just being pushed aside as if I'm not reading others peoples' posts. There's been a lot of people taking practically 1 or 2 words of my sentences here and just creating their own narrative (ie. someone claiming I said Miller would take a bargain of a deal when the entire other half of my sentence said it might not happen either). I'm not worried though as all that really tells me is they don't care to understand anothers' ideas. They just want to "be right" which isn't a good way of approaching a debate.

I have no interest in speaking for other people.

 

13 minutes ago, The Lock said:

I get it though, people are dismissive of others' views on this forum often times. People want shiny new toys over having a good team I guess. lol

 

No, I do want a good team! The contender management has promised in fact. Not the current only-bubble playoff team WITH a $5m  Miller on it and a mess on D and no succession plan. I have no idea how people expect it to become a contending team paying him $3m+ more, no trade assets from moving him, and no way to fix our D that is a couple years from being Poolman, Juulsen and Woo as our right side.

 

13 minutes ago, The Lock said:

At least we can agree with Miller being a solid player.

I don't think anyone disputes that. And they're fools if they do. If he ends up re-signing at $7.5x4 years, I'll happily strap on a bib for my helping of crow. I just think the chances of that are near zero.